Way Premature 2012-13 top 25

[CDu]

I think the gap is larger than you do between Austin and our second best player, especially on the perimeter.

I also think if we're expected that from Rasheed, we're setting ourselves up for failure. Rivers led us in scoring -- the first freshman since Dawkins in '83 -- and was a third team All-American by NABC and the Wooden voters at least. He was one of the 20 best players in college basketball last year probably. If Suliamon is 90% of that player, he's going to be a top 30 ish player Nationally and probably all-ACC as a freshman. He might do that, but it's a big expectation for a kid who isn't a top 5 player in his class like Austin was.

I don't think anyone is expecting Sulaimon to match Rivers next year. He doesn't have to be. The point was that we have more coming back than those other teams, and Sulaimon more closely replaces what we lost than the guys those other teams are bringing in. Or do you expect Ellis to match Robinson? Or anyone on MSU to match Green?

We return 70% of our scoring, 70% of our rebounding, 80% of our assists if Mason returns. And we add a top 20 recruit, a top 40 wing recruit with a year's experience, and a top 60 7 footer with a year's experience. MSU loses 40% of their scoring and 45% of their rebounding and assists, including a 1st Team All-American, and brings in a top 20 guard and some decent but not great big men. Kansas loses 54% of its scoring, 43% of its rebounding, and 50% of its assists, including a 1st Team All-American, and replaces it with good players but not nearly the players they lose. Syracuse loses 58% of its scoring, 43% of its rebounding, and 64% of its assists.

Yes, those teams were better than us by season's end (Syracuse all season). But they lose a lot more of their teams than we do and don't bring in as much talent as we do.

[CDu]

Well, ok. But I was responding to a comparison you made. What was that based on? Their years-ago high school performance? James Southerland has been out of high school for three years. Josh Hairston for two. At this point, I'll take the small sample of their on-court performance in college over several-years-old high school rankings.

The comparison was based simply on both players being small part players who play a similar position and who shouldn't be expected to be impact players next year. It was not intended to be a quantitatively rigorous analysis.

[TexHawk]

You are correct that your depth will be better, but the top-end will be greatly weaker next year. And depth (unless it is superstar depth) really isn't all that meaningful once you get into March. You need to have the horses, and barring some unforeseen developments I don't see Kansas having them. Most teams trim the rotation to 7-8 guys, so being better at the 7th - 10th spots in the rotation but worse at the top two spots is a bad tradeoff.

In every year but this one, Self has run with an 8 man rotation once he got to March. The 6-8 horses did not exist in '12, so you saw a team that basically went through the starting 5 for everything. Teahan and Young provided no consistent scoring, just warm bodies to hopefully rebound and not turn the ball over. (Did anybody else cringe when Teahan was matched up on MKG? Ye gods.) This team was certainly the anomaly in comparison to his others. KU will be better at 6-8 in '12-'13, not just 7-10.

In one year, Robinson jumped from 7 ppg to 17. Taylor went from 9 ppg to 16. While I am more positive about Johnson-Releford-Withey than you are, trust me, I am not expecting THAT kind of superstar improvement. If you assume a modest increase of 2-3 ppg for those three, plus ~7-9 ppg each from McLemore and Ellis, that replaces about 24-25 points of those 33 ppg from Taylor/Robinson. (Teahan/Young put up ~8 ppg off the bench.) The 6-8 rotation guys will come from a group of Tharpe, Young, Traylor, White, Adams, and Lucas/Peters if there is foul trouble. I don't think it's completely ridiculous to think you can find anywhere from 10-13 ppg in that group of three. Of course, that's still less scoring than was there in '12, so there may be more pressure on the defense. But Taylor/Robinson were average at best on that end (liabilities at worst), and that was likely by design. No idea how Ellis/McLemore will fit there, so that's an unknown.

And again, you have to look at the competition. Baylor may be ok, Texas will be above average. But outside of that, the Big12 will be awful, and KU should be favored to win it again. That team could/should hover around the Top 5-10 all season, similar to this one.

I do think you bring up an interesting point about superstars in March. A more well-balanced offense may not mean a successful tourney run, but let's be honest, none of us can come close to predicting THAT right now. Sometimes leaning on two guys for every big basket is a better direction for KU's offense. I dunno, will be fun to see how it goes.

[Des Esseintes]

And again, you have to look at the competition. Baylor may be ok, Texas will be above average. But outside of that, the Big12 will be awful, and KU should be favored to win it again. That team could/should hover around the Top 5-10 all season, similar to this one.

K-State probably deserves a mention here. I know Martin executed a Lateral Odom to South Carolina, depriving the program of a recruit or two. But don't they bring back a pretty strong core? Rodney Macgruder is a slightly poorer man's Jacob Pullen, and there's a lot of talent elsewhere. Weber has shown he can win with another guy's players, if not his own. On paper, they are probably behind the teams you mentioned, but that is a steady veteran group.

[CDu]

In every year but this one, Self has run with an 8 man rotation once he got to March. The 6-8 horses did not exist in '12, so you saw a team that basically went through the starting 5 for everything. Teahan and Young provided no consistent scoring, just warm bodies to hopefully rebound and not turn the ball over. (Did anybody else cringe when Teahan was matched up on MKG? Ye gods.) This team was certainly the anomaly in comparison to his others. KU will be better at 6-8 in '12-'13, not just 7-10.

In one year, Robinson jumped from 7 ppg to 17. Taylor went from 9 ppg to 16. While I am more positive about Johnson-Releford-Withey than you are, trust me, I am not expecting THAT kind of superstar improvement. If you assume a modest increase of 2-3 ppg for those three, plus ~7-9 ppg each from McLemore and Ellis, that replaces about 24-25 points of those 33 ppg from Taylor/Robinson. (Teahan/Young put up ~8 ppg off the bench.) The 6-8 rotation guys will come from a group of Tharpe, Young, Traylor, White, Adams, and Lucas/Peters if there is foul trouble. I don't think it's completely ridiculous to think you can find anywhere from 10-13 ppg in that group of three. Of course, that's still less scoring than was there in '12, so there may be more pressure on the defense. But Taylor/Robinson were average at best on that end (liabilities at worst), and that was likely by design. No idea how Ellis/McLemore will fit there, so that's an unknown.

And again, you have to look at the competition. Baylor may be ok, Texas will be above average. But outside of that, the Big12 will be awful, and KU should be favored to win it again. That team could/should hover around the Top 5-10 all season, similar to this one.

I do think you bring up an interesting point about superstars in March. A more well-balanced offense may not mean a successful tourney run, but let's be honest, none of us can come close to predicting THAT right now. Sometimes leaning on two guys for every big basket is a better direction for KU's offense. I dunno, will be fun to see how it goes.

To be fair, I don't think Kansas will be bad by any means. Just that I think Duke has a better outlook than Kansas does next year. That's not a negative, in my opinion. I thinK Duke will be very good next year, and can be really really good if things go right. I agree with your expectations of performance. I just see that as a very good team, not a Top-5 team. It's not, in my opinion, as good as NC State with Leslie back and adding a 7-footer, a stud guard recruit, and two more McDonald's All-Americans to replace their 5th and 7th best players. It's not likely to be as good as Kentucky's team (if Calipari stays and gets another stud or two), Indiana (if Zeller returns), Louisville, Florida, Baylor, or Duke (if Mason returns).