Way Premature 2012-13 top 25

[Chicago 1995]

You say this as though it's a given that those are going to be the 6 core guys. For all your talking up of other teams' prospects, you ignore that we have an elite guard recruit, an upper-tier forward recruit with a year's experience, another upper-tier wing recruit with a year's experience and better health, and an upper-tier PG who will hopefully finally be fully healthy from his knee problems of last year and also has a year's worth of experience now. Several of those guys (and possibly a transfer) are going to absolutely be in the core - probably moreso than one or more of the guys you list as the core.

If we aren't top-25 next year, I'll gladly come and acknowledge that I was wrong. But I don't think I'll have to do so.

Let me be clear, I hope I'm wrong, and will gladly admit it if we're better than I suspect we'll be at the outset of the season. I think we can improve and be better -- I've said that at different points -- but my point is that at the beginning of the season, I don't think we're going to be a top 25 team.

Whether or not we improve will depend to what extent Cook/Gbinijie/Sheed/Murphy/MPIII develop and contribute and become core members of the team. If Cook's healthy and playing 30 minutes a night as an effective PG, we're going to be a lot better by the end of the year, and if we get development and signficant contributions out of Sheed and Murphy on the wings, we could be dangerous come March. But if those guys struggle and we're relying on what we bring back, that's a bleak outcome for me.

And if we lose Mason in addition to Austin, our ceiling drops pretty significantly. We lose a shot blocker and our strongest and most athletic post defender. He'd be a giant loss for us.

[dcar1985]

That's actually not quite accurate. Go check the final ratings again. Murphy was rated higher than McLemore in all but one of the recruiting sites. The difference was that Hoop Scoops and Prep Stars didn't ever rate Murphy (because he switched classes so late in the game), and that brought down Murphy's average rating. Had Murphy been rated by those guys (assuming he got the same rough estimate that he got from the others), he'd have been 5 spots spots ahead of McLemore at #36 - ahead of Mo Harkless, by the way. So McLemore only rated higher on a technicality.

And the reason I brought up the top-15 is because I think it's relevant. Compared with the guys who were his peers at the time, he was the #15 recruit. When compared to guys a year more advanced, he was the #36 recruit (again, correcting for the omission of a rating). The scouts do take age and development into account, and only the most elite of prospects aren't penalized by reclassifying.

In any case, based on the RSCI we have two guys rated higher than McLemore in Gbinije and Murphy, and each has a similar level of college experience.



I don't think Southerland is appreciably better than Hairston. He's gotten slightly more opportunity than Hairston, but that's because Syracuse had fewer guys in front of him. He's definitely not way better than Hairston.

You do realize that Alex didn't come in a year early right? He was originally c/o 2011...2012 would've been a 5th year of HS for Alex so he would have been a year older than most of the 2012 kids and his actual peers would be the class he went back to.

FWIW though I do believe Alex to be the better player, more skilled and versatile w/ McLemore being the better athlete.

[CDu]

Let me be clear, I hope I'm wrong, and will gladly admit it if we're better than I suspect we'll be at the outset of the season. I think we can improve and be better -- I've said that at different points -- but my point is that at the beginning of the season, I don't think we're going to be a top 25 team.

Whether or not we improve will depend to what extent Cook/Gbinijie/Sheed/Murphy/MPIII develop and contribute and become core members of the team. If Cook's healthy and playing 30 minutes a night as an effective PG, we're going to be a lot better by the end of the year, and if we get development and signficant contributions out of Sheed and Murphy on the wings, we could be dangerous come March. But if those guys struggle and we're relying on what we bring back, that's a bleak outcome for me.

And if we lose Mason in addition to Austin, our ceiling drops pretty significantly. We lose a shot blocker and our strongest and most athletic post defender. He'd be a giant loss for us.

Well, I'm positive we'll be a preseason top-25 (with or without Mason). And I think we'll warrant that rating, too. Unless we really struggle early, it's going to be hard to prove that wrong, I guess, so I'm admittedly in an easier position. We'll likely pile up early-season wins like we always do. I suspect we'll also pile up wins in a watered-down ACC as well.

[CDu]

You do realize that Alex didn't come in a year early right? He was originally c/o 2011...2012 would've been a 5th year of HS for Alex so he would have been a year older than most of the 2012 kids and his actual peers would be the class he went back to.

I'm well aware of that. But that does not put him in a very exclusive club. It's becoming very common for guys to come into college a year later than kids did 15-20 years ago. Lots of guys are essentially 5th year guys coming out of high school these days. So I don't think it's necessarily fair to discount where he had been rated in this year's class. Obviously it's not the rating he left high school with, but it's relevant data to consider.

FWIW though I do believe Alex to be the better player, more skilled and versatile w/ McLemore being the better athlete.

I'm not sure McLemore is necessarily even the better athlete. Murphy is really athletic. His big question mark is strength. But no need to quibble any further since we're in agreement that Murphy is the better player.

[FellowTraveler]

Triche is no better than Curry (different, but no better). Southerland is no better than Hairston, regardless of shooting range. Christmas showed potential, but he's not as good as Mason. CJ Fair is talented. Can Triche, Fair, and Christmas make up for the lack of a PG? Do they even have more than 2 guards on the roster? Carter-Williams most certainly didn't distinguish himself from Gbinije. They are both very similar question marks. to say he's got more upside is to be guilty of seeing the negatives on one side and ignore them on the other. Gbinije was roughly the same rating out of high school and neither player played substantively in the spring.

There's a better case to be made that Carter-Williams was as productive as Hairston last year than there is that "Southerland is no better than Hairston."

Southerland:
593 minutes, 121.5 offensive rating, 55.5 efg%, 15.0 dReb%, 6.5 oReb%, 1.1 A/TO, 3.2 steal%, 6.4 block%,

Hairston:
246 minutes, 98.1 offensive rating, 44.9 efg%, 8.5 dReb%, 10.9 oReb%, 0.3 A/TO, 0.9 steal%, 1.4 block%

Southerland scored more, scored more efficiently, rebounded better, handed out more assists, turned the ball over less, blocked more shots, fouled less, and recorded more steals. Many of those things by large margins. On the other hand, Hairston got more offensive rebounds. Southerland had the 74th best offensive rating in the country; Hairston's was below average. There's just no real comparison between the two from a 2011-2012 performance standpoint.

Now, Carter-Williams:
269 minutes, 113.2 offensive rating, 49.1 efg%, 11.5 dReb%, 3.8 OReb%, 3.4 A/TO, 4.5 steal%, 2.9 block%

Carter-Williams scored slightly less than Hairston but did it more efficiently, handed out 10 times as many assists with an A/TO ratio 10 times as good, recorded more steals and blocks, fouled less, and rebounding was a wash.

Not going to bother typing out everything for Gbinije, but basically he played fewer than half as many minutes as Hairston/Carter-Williams with an O-rating and rebounding comparable to Carter-Williams but much worse assist, turnover, foul, block & steal numbers.

It's certainly possible for Hairston & Gbinije to improve more than Southerland & Carter-Williams and end up better players. But so far there has been a massive gap in actual performance in favor of the Syracuse players.

[dcar1985]

I'm well aware of that. But that does not put him in a very exclusive club. It's becoming very common for guys to come into college a year later than kids did 15-20 years ago. Lots of guys are essentially 5th year guys coming out of high school these days. So I don't think it's necessarily fair to discount where he had been rated in this year's class. Obviously it's not the rating he left high school with, but it's relevant data to consider.



I'm not sure McLemore is necessarily even the better athlete. Murphy is really athletic. His big question mark is strength. But no need to quibble any further since we're in agreement that Murphy is the better player.

Depends on how you look at it though...assuming the top 24-25 players are McDonalds AA kids every year...5th year seniors don't qualify to play in the game, so all those guys who are supposed to be the top players in the class did so in 4 years...

[CDu]

There's a better case to be made that Carter-Williams was as productive as Hairston last year than there is that "Southerland is no better than Hairston."

Southerland:
593 minutes, 121.5 offensive rating, 55.5 efg%, 15.0 dReb%, 6.5 oReb%, 1.1 A/TO, 3.2 steal%, 6.4 block%,

Hairston:
246 minutes, 98.1 offensive rating, 44.9 efg%, 8.5 dReb%, 10.9 oReb%, 0.3 A/TO, 0.9 steal%, 1.4 block%

Southerland scored more, scored more efficiently, rebounded better, handed out more assists, turned the ball over less, blocked more shots, fouled less, and recorded more steals. Many of those things by large margins. On the other hand, Hairston got more offensive rebounds. Southerland had the 74th best offensive rating in the country; Hairston's was below average. There's just no real comparison between the two from a 2011-2012 performance standpoint.

Now, Carter-Williams:
269 minutes, 113.2 offensive rating, 49.1 efg%, 11.5 dReb%, 3.8 OReb%, 3.4 A/TO, 4.5 steal%, 2.9 block%

Carter-Williams scored slightly less than Hairston but did it more efficiently, handed out 10 times as many assists with an A/TO ratio 10 times as good, recorded more steals and blocks, fouled less, and rebounding was a wash.

Not going to bother typing out everything for Gbinije, but basically he played fewer than half as many minutes as Hairston/Carter-Williams with an O-rating and rebounding comparable to Carter-Williams but much worse assist, turnover, foul, block & steal numbers.

It's certainly possible for Hairston & Gbinije to improve more than Southerland & Carter-Williams and end up better players. But so far there has been a massive gap in actual performance in favor of the Syracuse players.

Southerland was more productive than Hairston. I never said otherwise. I said Southerland isn't a better plan than Hairston. Southerland was a role player who happened to get more opportunity than Hairston. Hairston was a role player who was stuck behind one additional player this year.

The sample size of game time for all 3 players is too small to glean any truly meaningful comparative information about any of those guys.

[Kfanarmy]

... It's becoming very common for guys to come into college a year later than kids did 15-20 years ago. Lots of guys are essentially 5th year guys coming out of high school these days....

Why do you believe "Lots of guys" are coming out of HS at the 5 year mark...outside a very small % of athletes, I haven't heard of any.

[CDu]

Depends on how you look at it though...assuming the top 24-25 players are McDonalds AA kids every year...5th year seniors don't qualify to play in the game, so all those guys who are supposed to be the top players in the class did so in 4 years...

Not all of the top-25 are McDonald's guys, though it's true that the top-20 guys are usually McDonald's guys. But every year we see a few guys who were rated much lower (like Marshall Plumlee) get in the game and a few top-20 guys not be eligible.

In 2011, for example, Amir Williams (RSCI #50) and Marshall Plumlee (RSCI #61) played while Quincy Miller, Andre Drummond, Nick Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, DeAndre Daniels, Jabari Brown, BJ Young, Tony Wroten, and Josiah Turner (all Top-20 RSCI guys) did not. Of course, Drummond was a case like Murphy of reclassifying back into his "natural" class.

Miller was 19 as a high school senior, as was Daniels. I believe some of the others were too.

[TexHawk]

I'm not sure McLemore is necessarily even the better athlete. Murphy is really athletic. His big question mark is strength. But no need to quibble any further since we're in agreement that Murphy is the better player.

There is very little I can confidently say about McLemore without seeing him in game action. But his athleticism is not something Kansas is worried about. Practice observers and Coach Self have said he's the most athletic player at KU since Kenny Gregory in the 90s, and the best athlete Self has ever recruited. Now, whether he can shoot and play defense is another topic altogether. (If Kenny Gregory is the ceiling, we'll get lots of fun alley-oops, and not any Final Fours.)

Interesting thread... I saw 3 preseason polls before today that had KU 3, 4, and 3. Luke Winn pegged them at #18 this afternoon. Should be an interesting year.

[Troublemaker]

And we don't?

Rivers was the only player on our team that could break down his opponent off the dribble or create his own shot. Losing him is, to us, every bit as big as losing T-Rob or Draymond Green. People here are drastically overrrating our returning backcourt and drastically underrating how much Austin meant to us, I think.

I agree that Austin was our best player. I would say though that the separation between him and Duke's 2nd/3rd/4th best player wasn't as wide as Robinson or Green's separation from their respective teams. Those two were great college players; Austin as a freshman was closer to good than great, and I think Sulaimon can be 90% of Rivers (with an outside chance of being better [I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't be shocked]). Not sure if Robinson or Green have as adequate a replacement.

[dcar1985]

Not all of the top-25 are McDonald's guys, though it's true that the top-20 guys are usually McDonald's guys. But every year we see a few guys who were rated much lower (like Marshall Plumlee) get in the game and a few top-20 guys not be eligible.

In 2011, for example, Amir Williams (RSCI #50) and Marshall Plumlee (RSCI #61) played while Quincy Miller, Andre Drummond, Nick Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, DeAndre Daniels, Jabari Brown, BJ Young, Tony Wroten, and Josiah Turner (all Top-20 RSCI guys) did not. Of course, Drummond was a case like Murphy of reclassifying back into his "natural" class.

Right and that might be some of the reason behind it....Last year Quincy Miller, and Mike G were both 5th year guys who didn't qualify, had that not been you probably wouldn't have seen Marshall making the team...but yea sometimes players just get snubbed

[Greg_Newton]

There is very little I can confidently say about McLemore without seeing him in game action. But his athleticism is not something Kansas is worried about. Practice observers and Coach Self have said he's the most athletic player at KU since Kenny Gregory in the 90s, and the best athlete Self has ever recruited. Now, whether he can shoot and play defense is another topic altogether. (If Kenny Gregory is the ceiling, we'll get lots of fun alley-oops, and not any Final Fours.)

Interesting thread... I saw 3 preseason polls before today that had KU 3, 4, and 3. Luke Winn pegged them at #18 this afternoon. Should be an interesting year.

Yeah, I saw McLemore in HS, and he is an absolute freak of nature. Alex is a great, smooth athlete and I have high hopes for him as an overall player, but McLemore and Shaq Johnson are going to be the best two athletes in college basketball next year.

[CDu]

Why do you believe "Lots of guys" are coming out of HS at the 5 year mark...outside a very small % of athletes, I haven't heard of any.

Last year, the following players among the top 40 recruits were 19 year olds (i.e., were in high school a year later than they should have been):

Quincy Miller
Josiah Turner
Jabari Brown
DeAndre Daniels
Nick Johnson

That's 5 of the top 20 recruits. I think it's pretty common these days.

[CDu]

I agree that Austin was our best player. I would say though that the separation between him and Duke's 2nd/3rd/4th best player wasn't as wide as Robinson or Green's separation from their respective teams. Those two were great college players; Austin as a freshman was closer to good than great, and I think Sulaimon can be 90% of Rivers (with an outside chance of being better [I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't be shocked]). Not sure if Robinson or Green have as adequate a replacement.

Exactly. MSU could do very little without Green and they aren't replacing him next year. Kansas lost their best player by far and they lost their quickest and best perimeter player, and most importantly they lost the only two guys who could consistently create offense despite being focal points for the opposition. They have a few talented players coming in, but those guys shouldn't be expected to come close to what Robinson and Taylor provided. Syracuse is losing both of its ballhandlers, both of its starting post guys, and 3 of their top 5 scorers, and they don't have any guards of note coming in.

We're losing our best player, but we're replacing him with a pretty darn good player at the same position. And the guy coming in appears to be quicker, more explosive, more unselfish, and more versatile (though less of a pure ballhandler and an inch or two shorter). And we're adding a tall, athletic, and very talented wing player that Coach K has raved about. We will more easily replace what we lost than MSU, Kansas, and Syracuse. Unless Mason goes and we don't get Parker/Oriakhi. Then, I think we're a borderline top 25-30 team instead of a top 10-15 (or better) team.

Luke Winn is probably the closest to accurate (of course, that may be because his thoughts are most consistent with my own). He's the only one who hasn't simply said "MSU has Tom Izzo" and "Kansas has Bill Self" and ranked those two in the Top 10. I quibble with his rating of Syracuse, but I guess someone will have to do well in the Big East. For what it's worth, he appears to be basing his rating on Mason going pro, but probably overrating Marshall. He also has McAdoo staying. I'd expect us in the 8-10 range if Mason returns, and I'm guessing he'd do the same if we find that Mason has returned.

[FellowTraveler]

The sample size of game time for all 3 players is too small to glean any truly meaningful comparative information about any of those guys.

Well, ok. But I was responding to a comparison you made. What was that based on? Their years-ago high school performance? James Southerland has been out of high school for three years. Josh Hairston for two. At this point, I'll take the small sample of their on-court performance in college over several-years-old high school rankings.

[Chicago 1995]

I agree that Austin was our best player. I would say though that the separation between him and Duke's 2nd/3rd/4th best player wasn't as wide as Robinson or Green's separation from their respective teams. Those two were great college players; Austin as a freshman was closer to good than great, and I think Sulaimon can be 90% of Rivers (with an outside chance of being better [I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't be shocked]). Not sure if Robinson or Green have as adequate a replacement.

I think the gap is larger than you do between Austin and our second best player, especially on the perimeter.

I also think if we're expected that from Rasheed, we're setting ourselves up for failure. Rivers led us in scoring -- the first freshman since Dawkins in '83 -- and was a third team All-American by NABC and the Wooden voters at least. He was one of the 20 best players in college basketball last year probably. If Suliamon is 90% of that player, he's going to be a top 30 ish player Nationally and probably all-ACC as a freshman. He might do that, but it's a big expectation for a kid who isn't a top 5 player in his class like Austin was.

[Greg_Newton]

Last year, the following players among the top 40 recruits were 19 year olds (i.e., were in high school a year later than they should have been):

Quincy Miller
Josiah Turner
Jabari Brown
DeAndre Daniels
Nick Johnson

That's 5 of the top 20 recruits. I think it's pretty common these days.

I'd say so - Austin Rivers, Michael Gbinije, Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee and Marshall Plumlee were all 19 when they began their freshman years, and Alex Murphy would have been too had he not reclassified.

Interestingly, Ryan Kelly is over a year younger than Mason.

[ncexnyc]

This thread should be retitled " Yeah its early but State still looks like they need a hug"

Or maybe CDu vs Chicago 1995.

After several pages of back and forth isn't someone supposed to say, "Let's just agree to disagree."

[toooskies]

I agree that Austin was our best player. I would say though that the separation between him and Duke's 2nd/3rd/4th best player wasn't as wide as Robinson or Green's separation from their respective teams. Those two were great college players; Austin as a freshman was closer to good than great, and I think Sulaimon can be 90% of Rivers (with an outside chance of being better [I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't be shocked]). Not sure if Robinson or Green have as adequate a replacement.

I agree. I'm glad Austin played on the team, but I don't think the team developed well after he hit the shot in the UNC game. Up to that point, it was probably debatable whether Austin was the best player on the team; and that left the offense and leadership of the team in a bit of flux. I actually think that defining a leader on the team (and defining Austin as that leader) actually hurt them, because it meant some other players deferred too much. As much as Austin added, nearly every player produced more points when they shot the ball.

But next year's team is poised to see this year's maybe-leaders turn into real leaders. They have some adversity to get through, and they don't have anything to be proud of at the end of this year; I have no doubt that Coach K will be able to turn that into a motivating factor this offseason. Especially on the defensive end.

To previous commenters, I think this team also has a lot of growth potential. I think Quinn could be a top-flight PG if he can control his knee issues and lock down his defense. I think Ryan has shown steady progress, and may be the best player on the team and in the discussion for best in the conference.