Way Premature 2012-13 top 25

[gofurman]

Based on known entries - who do you see in top 10 or 25 nxt year. I dont know all years of players

NC State - top 15 w Leslie.. lower 25 without him.
UK - based on reload between 10 and 25.
Duke - More experience than most though not super-athletic. Top 10 or 15
Ohio State - assuming no Sullinger Top 25 but big losses if Craft, Sullinger, and Buford are gone. Deshaun Thomas? yr?
MSU - no Draymond Green but still Top 25
Syracuse - top 25? they are losing a lot I think.
UNC - top 25 w McAdoo and new guys
Arizona? dont know - good recruiting
Memphis?
Louisville top 25 - they could be good, who is coming back?


I cant see any super dominant teams yet.. help me , who am I missing?

[BlueDevil16]

If UK get Noel, Shabazz, and that other top 10 recruit they'd easily be 1. Really if they get two of them theyd be number one. UCLA could be great depending on Shabazz and others too.

[FerryFor50]

I don't see NCSU in the top 10, with or without Leslie.

[Dukehky]

I don't see NCSU in the top 10, with or without Leslie.

Really? That team with Leslie would b e absolutely stacked. They add so much depth and upgrades a lot of positions. With Tyler Lewis, you can put Brown at the 2 if you want to when Lewis comes off the bench. Rodney Purvis easily replaces CJ Williams. If Leslie stays, I think State's probably a top 5 team. Maybe that's a big of a hyperbole, but with Leslie, I think they're at least the clear cut favorite in the ACC. Provided Plumlee leaves and Bazz goes elsewhere.

[FerryFor50]

Really? That team with Leslie would b e absolutely stacked. They add so much depth and upgrades a lot of positions. With Tyler Lewis, you can put Brown at the 2 if you want to when Lewis comes off the bench. Rodney Purvis easily replaces CJ Williams. If Leslie stays, I think State's probably a top 5 team. Maybe that's a big of a hyperbole, but with Leslie, I think they're at least the clear cut favorite in the ACC. Provided Plumlee leaves and Bazz goes elsewhere.

Top team in the ACC does not guarantee top 10 in the country.

They have a good recruiting class coming in, but you never know how well they'll fit in, and you never know how good they'll be...

They never really beat anyone of note this year outside of Georgetown and had double digit losses. Top 25, for sure. But top 10... I'll believe it when I see it.

[turnandburn55]

Top team in the ACC does not guarantee top 10 in the country.

Serious question-- has a team in the recent past finished at the top of the ACC and *not* been top 10 in the country anytime in the recent past?

<intentionally ambiguous about how you define "top team in the ACC">

[FerryFor50]

Serious question-- has a team in the recent past finished at the top of the ACC and *not* been top 10 in the country anytime in the recent past?

<intentionally ambiguous about how you define "top team in the ACC">

Hmm... closest I can find is the 2002-2003 where Duke and Maryland finished 9-10.

Every year since then, the ACC has had a 30+ win team, which nearly guarantees a top 10 finish.

If NCSU hits 30 wins while being the top ACC team, I could see them finishing top 10.

But that's a big if...

[PackMan97]

Top team in the ACC does not guarantee top 10 in the country.

They have a good recruiting class coming in, but you never know how well they'll fit in, and you never know how good they'll be...

They never really beat anyone of note this year outside of Georgetown and had double digit losses. Top 25, for sure. But top 10... I'll believe it when I see it.

NC State was 2-9 against the top 25 RPI. That's almost your double digit losses right there. 22-4 against everyone else. Sure, that's not top 10 material but you can't deny that NC State was playing MUCH better the last month of the season. Pollsters look at the way we played against Duke for 30 minutes, against Carolina in the last two games, against SDSU, GT and KU in the NCAAs. NC State really started to click late in the season and it wasn't the result of hot shooting or one player going nuts (though Leslie did step up) it was team basketball. I also think many folks look at how much having a coach improved our guys and assume there is still some upside to our guys with another year of Gottfried and staff.

I certainly think it's a stretch to have State at #6, but given the losses many of the top teams will suffer and the addition of debt, it's not crazy.

[FerryFor50]

NC State was 2-9 against the top 25 RPI. That's almost your double digit losses right there. 22-4 against everyone else. Sure, that's not top 10 material but you can't deny that NC State was playing MUCH better the last month of the season. Pollsters look at the way we played against Duke for 30 minutes, against Carolina in the last two games, against SDSU, GT and KU in the NCAAs. NC State really started to click late in the season and it wasn't the result of hot shooting or one player going nuts (though Leslie did step up) it was team basketball. I also think many folks look at how much having a coach improved our guys and assume there is still some upside to our guys with another year of Gottfried and staff.

I certainly think it's a stretch to have State at #6, but given the losses many of the top teams will suffer and the addition of debt, it's not crazy.

I'm not saying the Pack is a bad team. I'm of the opinion that they're on their way up and will be a force to be reckoned with as long as the players don't tune out Gottfried.

As a State alum, I'm perfectly ok with that. However, I also know, as a State alum, to temper my expectations and be realistic.

[CDu]

I'm not saying the Pack is a bad team. I'm of the opinion that they're on their way up and will be a force to be reckoned with as long as the players don't tune out Gottfried.

As a State alum, I'm perfectly ok with that. However, I also know, as a State alum, to temper my expectations and be realistic.

I think with the degree of turnover we're seeing from from year to year in college basketball makes it necessary to consider major jumps possible. Add to that the collection of returning talent and incoming talent (I think Purvis is an immediate impact guy - Warren and Lewis are going to be role playing reserves next year) and the addition of more depth/size inside for State, and I think the expectations are going to be very high for them next year if Leslie returns.

There are still question marks. That team really had only one guy comfortable dribbling in the half court (Brown), and down the stretch of games that limitation showed up (combined with the fact that Leslie and/or Howell were off the floor with fouls) in their close losses. They just weren't comfortable creating offense when it got to crunch time and defenses stiffened. The additions of Purvis and Lewis will help there. Those guys are very confident with the ball in their hands, so they can take turns providing relief for Brown.

Talentwise, that's a top-5 team next year if Leslie returns. And with the weakened ACC, they should certainly improve upon their 9-7 mark this past season. A 24-win team returning all but one of its key players (and replacing that one with an upgrade in talent and depth) and adding an additional big man, with 2 candidates for 1st Team All-ACC sure sounds like a top-10 team to me.

I know it feels weird to discuss State in those terms. But when you return all of the key players from a 24-win team and add a top-5 recruiting class to that team, you should expect big things. It's possibly the beginning of a new era in State basketball. We'll see if Gottfried can build on the strong finish and even stronger recruiting class by taking State further next year and continuing to bring in top-notch talent.

[PackMan97]

I'm not saying the Pack is a bad team. I'm of the opinion that they're on their way up and will be a force to be reckoned with as long as the players don't tune out Gottfried.

As a State alum, I'm perfectly ok with that. However, I also know, as a State alum, to temper my expectations and be realistic.

That's a losers mentality and it's not allowed in Raleigh any more. I have full faith that this coaching staff won't let some good press and a S16 go to the players head. When the positive press started coming out last fall (Howell's weight loss, changes in attitudes, practices, scheduling) I stopped tempering any expectations. This isn't about "being due" or "earning" anything, it's about our players and coaching staff going out and taking it. If you watched the last month of the season this team was hungry and driven. That same attitude will be back in the fall. It's the same drive that the great Duke teams have always had. It's the drive that the championship UNC teams have (which I never saw in them this season).

I don't know how good we'll be, or what record we will end up with, but I'm done being afraid of success and expectations. Gottfried flat out told our guys, 11 ACC wins and you are in the tourney. He didn't hide from it. He didn't only talk about it behind closed doors. He told them exactly what they had to do. The only thing I expect is to see the same effort and intensity. The rest will take care of itself.

[gumbomoop]

I certainly think it's a stretch to have State at #6, but given the losses many of the top teams will suffer... it's not crazy.

Not at all crazy. In fact, if [1] Leslie returns, and if, [2] as you predict, several of the potential top teams lose guys, NCSt would seem a very likely preseason consensus top 7-10. Pack fans have every reason to be very optimistic.

It's probably in Duke fans' interest for Leslie to leave, both because Pack wouldn't be as strong next year, and because the more guys leave who are likely to be drafted ahead of Mason, maybe Mason worries about sliding to 2d round, and decides to stay.

For some reason, I myself would much prefer that McAdoo leave than Leslie. I guess it's because UNC is the bigger rival, and maybe I think NCSt "deserves" to have a really good season. I might not be thinking that next season if Leslie stays and plays well against Duke.

[CDu]

Not at all crazy. In fact, if [1] Leslie returns, and if, [2] as you predict, several of the potential top teams lose guys, NCSt would seem a very likely preseason consensus top 7-10. Pack fans have every reason to be very optimistic.

It's probably in Duke fans' interest for Leslie to leave, both because Pack wouldn't be as strong next year, and because the more guys leave who are likely to be drafted ahead of Mason, maybe Mason worries about sliding to 2d round, and decides to stay.

For some reason, I myself would much prefer that McAdoo leave than Leslie. I guess it's because UNC is the bigger rival, and maybe I think NCSt "deserves" to have a really good season. I might not be thinking that next season if Leslie stays and plays well against Duke.

I want them both to leave.

That said, I think Leslie leaving has more positive implications for Duke than McAdoo leaving. Leslie just killed us in the game at Duke before foul trouble limited him. We really had no answer for him, and none of the guys we have returning will have an answer either. Without him, that's a very good State team, but it's one that we can match up with much better (though Brown and Purvis will still cause headaches).

McAdoo still needs to prove he's the same matchup nightmare that Leslie was. He's clearly crucial to UNC being really good or just okay, but I don't think he causes the same type of matchup problems that Leslie does. And it's the matchup problems that I worry about. Kelly is a good player and can usually hold his own out there, but Leslie's athleticism is off the charts (I think he was hands down the best athlete in the ACC last year). I'm confident we can beat UNC with McAdoo. State with Leslie and more depth is quite possibly an entirely different animal.

[gumbomoop]

I want them both to leave.

That said, I think Leslie leaving has more positive implications for Duke than McAdoo leaving. Leslie just killed us in the game at Duke before foul trouble limited him. We really had no answer for him, and none of the guys we have returning will have an answer either. Without him, that's a very good State team, but it's one that we can match up with much better (though Brown and Purvis will still cause headaches)... State with Leslie and more depth is quite possibly an entirely different animal.

Good points, good matchup details. I guess I want Leslie to leave even more than I want State to have a great season, and as I noted in my post, it's easy for me to say, right now, that I hope State will have a fine season. Not so easy if and when it happens, next season, at Duke's expense.

As I do not follow the NBA at all, I'd be interested in hearing posters comment on whether Leslie is a player without a position at the next level. Either here or on some other, even a new, thread.

[CDu]

Good points, good matchup details. I guess I want Leslie to leave even more than I want State to have a great season, and as I noted in my post, it's easy for me to say right now that I hope State will have a fine season. Not so easy if and when it happens at Duke's expense.

Yeah, I have several friends who are huge State fans, and for their sake I'd like to see State have a great season. However, when push comes to shove, I'm selfish and would prefer us to have the better year. What I'd really like to see is Duke #1, State #2, and UNC #12 in conference. But the most important thing for me is Duke #1.

As I do not follow the NBA at all, I'd be interested in hearing posters comment on whether Leslie is a player without a position at the next level. Either here or on some other, even a new, thread.

Leslie is very much a player without a position right now. He's got ideal SF size and athleticism, but he lacks even PF offensive skills. He's a lot like Tyrus Thomas in terms of size, athleticism, and potential, but also similar in lack of polish. The differences between the two are that Thomas was a better defender and had a "higher motor." Thomas went very high in the draft based on the combination of potential/defense/"motor" and the fact that his team made the final four largely on his defensive dominance. But he never did find a position in the NBA (too small to play PF well, too limited offensively to play SF well). That (combined with the concerns about Leslie's focus and "motor") will probably not do Leslie favors come draft time if he goes this year.

That said, Leslie is the type of guy who could go as high as the lottery and as low as the second round this year. It just takes one GM to fall in love with his athleticism and overlook the lack of a position. I think his career path may very well be similar to Thomas's path once in the NBA, but we'll see.

[sporthenry]

I don't see NCSU in the top 10, with or without Leslie.

I would put them easily as a preseason top 10 with Leslie. Many analysts considered them the hottest team in the tournament and lost to the runner's up. They would return Leslie, Howell, Brown, and Wood and add Purvis, Warren, and Tyler Lewis. Eve without Leslie, they are probably a top 15-20 team especially if Purvis is the real deal.

Baylor could be a top 5-10 team depending upon departures. I'd assume PJIII leaves but if Quincy Miller stays with Gathers and Austin coming in along with LJ Rose (who used to be a top guard if I remember correctly) could be a potent team.

Florida will lose Erving Walker and probably Beal but if Boynton returns with Murphy, Rosario, and Young will probably be a top 25 team.

Indiana brings in some decent recruits on paper and if Zeller stays, I'd expect them to be up there.

Syracuse will probably be a top 10 team with replacing Melo with Coleman and Rakeem Christmas. MKW will try to replace Kris Joseph and if Dion Waiters stays (not sure if he is even thinking about the NBA), they will have a solid roster.

Louisville should return most of their roster.

KY already has a good recruiting class and they will undoubtedly get a few more top 50 prospects.

Texas is an interesting team if Myck Kabongo develops with Ridley being an impact freshman, Jaylen Bond developing and perhaps one more recruit they could be in the mix.

And wherever some of the other top 20 prospects go like Noels, Bennett, and Muhammad go will probably take teams from either outside the top 10 into the top 10 or from top 10 to top 2-3 (in the case of KY and perhaps Duke).

That said, I don't know much about what mid-majors will return but next year could be another year with 1-2 top 10 mid-major teams if you get a team like SDSU or BYU of last year.

[FerryFor50]

I would put them easily as a preseason top 10 with Leslie. Many analysts considered them the hottest team in the tournament and lost to the runner's up. They would return Leslie, Howell, Brown, and Wood and add Purvis, Warren, and Tyler Lewis. Eve without Leslie, they are probably a top 15-20 team especially if Purvis is the real deal.

Baylor could be a top 5-10 team depending upon departures. I'd assume PJIII leaves but if Quincy Miller stays with Gathers and Austin coming in along with LJ Rose (who used to be a top guard if I remember correctly) could be a potent team.

Florida will lose Erving Walker and probably Beal but if Boynton returns with Murphy, Rosario, and Young will probably be a top 25 team.

Indiana brings in some decent recruits on paper and if Zeller stays, I'd expect them to be up there.

Syracuse will probably be a top 10 team with replacing Melo with Coleman and Rakeem Christmas. MKW will try to replace Kris Joseph and if Dion Waiters stays (not sure if he is even thinking about the NBA), they will have a solid roster.

Louisville should return most of their roster.

KY already has a good recruiting class and they will undoubtedly get a few more top 50 prospects.

Texas is an interesting team if Myck Kabongo develops with Ridley being an impact freshman, Jaylen Bond developing and perhaps one more recruit they could be in the mix.

And wherever some of the other top 20 prospects go like Noels, Bennett, and Muhammad go will probably take teams from either outside the top 10 into the top 10 or from top 10 to top 2-3 (in the case of KY and perhaps Duke).

That said, I don't know much about what mid-majors will return but next year could be another year with 1-2 top 10 mid-major teams if you get a team like SDSU or BYU of last year.

I think it's possible NCSU is pre-season top 10, but I think it's a paper tiger because they got hot late in the year.

I say they finish top 15-20.

[sporthenry]

I think it's possible NCSU is pre-season top 10, but I think it's a paper tiger because they got hot late in the year.

I say they finish top 15-20.

Well just predicting preseason rankings at this point are extremely premature so final rankings will obviously be completely different. Heck, Pittsburgh was a top 10 team a few weeks into the year this year. So I'm not basing my decision on where they will finish but on what they will look like on paper. I agree that they will have to prove a lot and we've seen plenty of teams try to take over Duke/UNC at the top of the ACC and fail miserably. But on paper, they appear to be the most talented team in the ACC and the winner of the ACC will be a top 10 team.

[FerryFor50]

Well just predicting preseason rankings at this point are extremely premature so final rankings will obviously be completely different. Heck, Pittsburgh was a top 10 team a few weeks into the year this year. So I'm not basing my decision on where they will finish but on what they will look like on paper. I agree that they will have to prove a lot and we've seen plenty of teams try to take over Duke/UNC at the top of the ACC and fail miserably. But on paper, they appear to be the most talented team in the ACC and the winner of the ACC will be a top 10 team.

If NCSU is the top team in the ACC, the media will DEFINITELY say it's a down year for the league.

[sporthenry]

If NCSU is the top team in the ACC, the media will DEFINITELY say it's a down year for the league.

Well if they win the league with something resembling a 10-6 record, I would agree, but if they go 13-3 or 14-2, against an improving ACC, I doubt they say it will be a down league. If anything, the ACC should be up next year across the board they will just be missing the top teams they've enjoyed the past few years.