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  1. #1

    The Future of College Basketball now that Kentucky has won

    Interesting piece by Chuck Klosterman. Possibly a bit hysterical and hyperbolic. Possibly true.

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...ege-basketball


    NOTE: This was written before the Final Four.

  2. #2
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    What was the old line? Winners never cheat, and cheaters never win. Well, of course that doesn't always hold true, but I sure hope that Kansas wins. Wipe that smirk off Calipari's face!

  3. #3
    That's actually a fantastic article and I do think the write hits on some very real points, and makes some very astute observations. Thanks for sharing!
    Reading and posting at DBR for over 19 years and loving every... well, almost every minute of it!

  4. #4
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    Good read. I'd strongly prefer Kansas win as well. But if Calipari loses, he'll likely hang around for at least as many years as it takes to get vindication for all things past by winning a national championship. If he wins, I think it could well shorten his college career and make him more receptive to going back to the NBA for more money, exposure, and seeking vindication of sorts at that level. Nothing's cerrain of course but the sooner he's done at Kentucky the less damage done to college basketball.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Washington DC
    Interesting article on graduation rates. I dont really know where I fall on this, but college should be more college than it is right now.

    I guess two plans to address this would be to keep kids in school for 2-3 years or to reduce scholarships or have a post-season ban for schools below certain graduation rates.

  6. #6
    Interesting article, but I don't think it will happen.

    I think most fan bases would not accept it.

    I think most schools (to whom academic reputations do matter) would not accept it.

    I don't think there are enough players who are true one-and-dones to fill up several teams a year.

    So yeah... I think this will happen with Cal at Kentucky as long as he is there, and then no longer.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2009

    Ebb and FLow

    I believe this is just the ebb and flow of life. Some people remain the same-while others make adjustments. In the 21st century; the traditionalists view is severely challenged, if not threatened. Diversity

  8. #8
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    Shouldn't the APR catch up to Kentucky pretty soon? When you send 3-4 freshmen to the NBA every year, there's no way you can graduate enough players. The hammer fell on UCONN this year, hopefully it will fall on Kentucky too (at which point Cal will likely leave for the NBA).

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Shouldn't the APR catch up to Kentucky pretty soon? When you send 3-4 freshmen to the NBA every year, there's no way you can graduate enough players. The hammer fell on UCONN this year, hopefully it will fall on Kentucky too (at which point Cal will likely leave for the NBA).
    Is the requirement to maintain a minimum graduation rate?

    Or is it to maintain a minimum rate of players on track to graduate?

  10. #10
    I expect KY to win but not because of the one-and-done model- but because the right phenom can make a huge difference. Davis has been the difference maker this year. I do not believe this model can win every year. If Kansas can get Davis in foul trouble and off the floor for a chunk of time- KY is vulnerable.
    dukelifer

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Shouldn't the APR catch up to Kentucky pretty soon? When you send 3-4 freshmen to the NBA every year, there's no way you can graduate enough players. The hammer fell on UCONN this year, hopefully it will fall on Kentucky too (at which point Cal will likely leave for the NBA).
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Is the requirement to maintain a minimum graduation rate?

    Or is it to maintain a minimum rate of players on track to graduate?
    As long as you leave the university in good academic standing, APR doesn't penalize the school. Thus, early departures for the NBA or transfers don't harm the school unless the student stops going to classes second semester because they know they're going to the NBA. So, while the two components for APR are 1. academic eligibility (i.e. straight A student or straight C students makes no difference whatsoever in the point system) and 2. retention, the NCAA makes exceptions for those transferring with a sufficiently high GPA or leaving for professional sports while still in good academic standing.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Is the requirement to maintain a minimum graduation rate?

    Or is it to maintain a minimum rate of players on track to graduate?
    I've done some piddling around and haven't managed to completely understand how the APR is calculated. But here's what I've learned so far:

    According to wikipedia,

    The APR is calculated by allocating points for eligibility and retention -- the two factors that research identifies as the best indicators of graduation. Each player on a given roster earns a maximum of two points per term, one for being academically eligible and one for staying with the institution. A team's APR is the total points of a team's roster at a given time divided by the total points possible. Since this results in a decimal number, the CAP decided to multiply it by 1,000 for ease of reference. Thus, a raw APR score of .925 translates into the 925 that will become the standard terminology.[1]
    So if a player stays one year, remains in good academic standing and then leaves for the NBA, they earn their school 3 out of 4 points (2/2 for the first semester, 1/2 for the second semester since they are in good academic standing but did not return). If your entire team consists of one and done'rs, you'd have an APR of 750 which is below the minimum requirement of 925.

    According to the NCAA's website, the APR is calculated as a four-year rolling window. What I don't know is whether they players that left early continue to factor into the calculation for the years after they are gone.

    Kentucky was able to produce an excellent APR score of 948 for the 2009-2010 season, Calipari's first at Kentucky and the most recent season for which data has been released. I'll be curious as to what it looks like for the next two years.

    EDIT: according to Bluedog's post, players that leave early for the NBA in good standing do not penalize the school. If this is true, then Kentucky can continue with their rent-a-player model indefinitely.

  13. #13
    I don't think the model is sustainable. A mixture of players who have their eye on cashing in and no interest in graduating combined with a rabid, win at all cost environment fueled by alumni and boosters will eventually self-destruct. I hope Calipari doesn't get a championship that sticks but it would serve UK right to have one vacated.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    EDIT: according to Bluedog's post, players that leave early for the NBA in good standing do not penalize the school. If this is true, then Kentucky can continue with their rent-a-player model indefinitely.
    Correct.

    NCAA:
    The Division I Committee on Academic Performance continues to examine data produced by the Academic Progress Rate and has adjusted the calculation over the years in response. Changes have included exceptions for student-athletes in good academic standing who leave school early to pursue a professional career, student-athletes who transfer to another school while meeting minimum academic requirements and student-athletes who return to graduate at a later date.
    http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/...APR+calculated

    NBADraft.net:
    The NCAA even makes an exception to APR (the yearly academic progress report) for those players that leave school to pursue careers in professional athletics.
    http://nbadraft.net/ncaas-shameful-early-entry-rule

    Hoopsworld:
    [Kentucky] Wildcats administration has to be as happy as anyone that there are no changes planned to the Academic Progress Rate that would penalize them for having guys leave early to play professionally. They would have been in serious trouble if there were; bringing in seven top-20 recruits is the only way Calipari can stay in the national championship mix with the kind of talent he loses year in and year out.
    http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-draft-...the-final-four

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I don't think the model is sustainable. A mixture of players who have their eye on cashing in and no interest in graduating combined with a rabid, win at all cost environment fueled by alumni and boosters will eventually self-destruct. I hope Calipari doesn't get a championship that sticks but it would serve UK right to have one vacated.
    Well, you're probably right (and that's certainly Calipari's history), but this current model is working so well that there may be less inclination to provide illegal benefits.
    A very select group of prospects, those who are in the top 10 to 15 players in their class with a realistic chance of being one-and-done 1st round NBA draft choices, like the way things are set up at Kentucky.
    They get good coaching, tremendous fan support, play with top talent, don't sweat the academics if they don't care, win a bunch of games, and cash in early with a high draft position. Less temptation to take illegal benefits when that big payday is just a year or two away.

    That's the theory anyway.

  16. #16

    More of the Theory

    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Well, you're probably right (and that's certainly Calipari's history), but this current model is working so well that there may be less inclination to provide illegal benefits.
    A very select group of prospects, those who are in the top 10 to 15 players in their class with a realistic chance of being one-and-done 1st round NBA draft choices, like the way things are set up at Kentucky.
    They get good coaching, tremendous fan support, play with top talent, don't sweat the academics if they don't care, win a bunch of games, and cash in early with a high draft position. Less temptation to take illegal benefits when that big payday is just a year or two away.

    That's the theory anyway.
    Calipari is also well connected with LeBron James. So go to KY for a year, play for Cal, no pressure to stay in school two years, go to the NBA, sign a deal with LeBron's marketing company. Hey Life is Good.

    I think the only thing the NCAA can do is to make freshmen ineligible for varsity basketball. Not sure I like the idea but it might bring the NBA to the table and get something negotiated that is fair to all parties. Right now kids who don't want to go to college have no place to play, colleges have to deal with one and done, and the NBA gets the benefits of fan exposure for future players and better evaluation of their talents.

    SoCal

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    As long as you leave the university in good academic standing, APR doesn't penalize the school. Thus, early departures for the NBA or transfers don't harm the school unless the student stops going to classes second semester because they know they're going to the NBA. So, while the two components for APR are 1. academic eligibility (i.e. straight A student or straight C students makes no difference whatsoever in the point system) and 2. retention, the NCAA makes exceptions for those transferring with a sufficiently high GPA or leaving for professional sports while still in good academic standing.
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I don't think the model is sustainable. A mixture of players who have their eye on cashing in and no interest in graduating combined with a rabid, win at all cost environment fueled by alumni and boosters will eventually self-destruct. I hope Calipari doesn't get a championship that sticks but it would serve UK right to have one vacated.
    Under the current rules, the UK model can sustain itself indefinitely. A couple of conditions, however: Who thinks Calipari will stick around for a decade? Also, any other school can horn in on the act. Why should players develop faster at UK than at KU or DUKE or UNC or other places?

    I would not be surprised if the extreme form of one-and-done recruiting practiced by Calapari and Kentucky reslts in a rejiggering of the rules. The justification is that it is not in keeping with the educational mission of the NCAA (year, I know, there is a lot of hypocrisy here and everywhere else). One could easily keep a running total of one-and-done players and, beyond a certain point, start reducing scholarships. The trigger could be "more than one per year" of departures after a single year. The penalty could be the loss of one or more scholarships for three years.

    sagegrouse

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Under the current rules, the UK model can sustain itself indefinitely. A couple of conditions, however: Who thinks Calipari will stick around for a decade? Also, any other school can horn in on the act. Why should players develop faster at UK than at KU or DUKE or UNC or other places?

    I would not be surprised if the extreme form of one-and-done recruiting practiced by Calapari and Kentucky reslts in a rejiggering of the rules. The justification is that it is not in keeping with the educational mission of the NCAA (year, I know, there is a lot of hypocrisy here and everywhere else). One could easily keep a running total of one-and-done players and, beyond a certain point, start reducing scholarships. The trigger could be "more than one per year" of departures after a single year. The penalty could be the loss of one or more scholarships for three years.

    sagegrouse

    Calipari is only 53. He could be around for a while at UK. Remember that he was only 72-112 as a coach in the NBA, so the Knicks may not be that big of a draw for him, especially with Amare Stoudemire's knees prominently featured.

    I think a likely end to the UK model is conference realignment. That could be the one thing that blows up this whole system and creates an opportunity to re-write all the rule. Cataclysmic change I suppose.

    If the major college football teams achieve four 16-team conferences like they seem to want, they can start dictating to the NCAAs what they want and set about the end of the NCAA as a meaningful institution. This could lead to football being set on one path with one set of rules (ie $ for players, less restrictive admissions standards) and all other sports on another path. Basketball would be caught in-between somehow. The NCAA tournament is great and needs no tweaking (so stop tweaking it already!). But college basketball is not quite as revenue hungry as football, in my estimation, even though they generate a lot of cash. It will be interesting to see how conference realignment plays out and where basketball lands as a result.

    I think keeping a kid in college a 2nd year would be good, but it is not a game-changer that would stop Calipari/UK from doing what they are doing.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Calipari is only 53. He could be around for a while at UK. Remember that he was only 72-112 as a coach in the NBA, so the Knicks may not be that big of a draw for him, especially with Amare Stoudemire's knees prominently featured.

    I think a likely end to the UK model is conference realignment. That could be the one thing that blows up this whole system and creates an opportunity to re-write all the rule. Cataclysmic change I suppose.

    If the major college football teams achieve four 16-team conferences like they seem to want, they can start dictating to the NCAAs what they want and set about the end of the NCAA as a meaningful institution. This could lead to football being set on one path with one set of rules (ie $ for players, less restrictive admissions standards) and all other sports on another path. Basketball would be caught in-between somehow. The NCAA tournament is great and needs no tweaking (so stop tweaking it already!). But college basketball is not quite as revenue hungry as football, in my estimation, even though they generate a lot of cash. It will be interesting to see how conference realignment plays out and where basketball lands as a result.

    I think keeping a kid in college a 2nd year would be good, but it is not a game-changer that would stop Calipari/UK from doing what they are doing.
    Although Calipari is only 53, I still can't see him at UK for that long. If he goes a couple of years without getting elite recruits, he could be in for a some lean years, as he has not had the stability of many four year players thus far. That's a lot of pressure for each year's recruiting. He has also mentioned that the UK head coaching job is a pretty intense one that he may not want to do for that long as that is a very intense fanbase. There is also always the possibility that violations may lead to an early exit from the program and, of course the lure of the pros.

    This year is interesting recruiting-wise. If he doesn't get any more recruits, he could still have a top 3 recruiting class, but because it is not like the Wall-Cousins, or Davis-Kidd-Gilchrist classes the team could struggle a bit. I expect he will probably get someone else and have the top class again, but if he doesn't get Shabazz and Noel, the team will be in the title mix along with a whole bunch of other teams.

    That leads me to the title of the thread. My prediction if Kentucky wins...is that Duke basketball will be one of the top 3 programs in the country as long as Coach K keeps koaching and will likely continue to get top 10 recruiting classes most years and be a top 15 team most years. Unfortunately, my prediction is not that Duke makes the elite 8 in the single elimination NCAA Tournament every single year, even if the team is ranked in the top 10 most years.

    Of course, my predictions are worth the paper they are printed on. I had Duke winning it this year, as usual.
    “Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Well, you're probably right (and that's certainly Calipari's history), but this current model is working so well that there may be less inclination to provide illegal benefits.
    A very select group of prospects, those who are in the top 10 to 15 players in their class with a realistic chance of being one-and-done 1st round NBA draft choices, like the way things are set up at Kentucky.
    They get good coaching, tremendous fan support, play with top talent, don't sweat the academics if they don't care, win a bunch of games, and cash in early with a high draft position. Less temptation to take illegal benefits when that big payday is just a year or two away.

    That's the theory anyway.
    I think you need someone who puts the program ahead of a particular team or an individual player minding the store to even possibly prevent violations in that environment and Calipari's history suggests that he is never "aware" of the violations when they occur. i don't think you can keep a program like UK out of trouble for very long being conveniently ignorant of what is going on around you. My UK friends have a Nascar mentality about cheating which is that it aint cheating unless you get caught. There are plenty of willing corrupters among their fans so I think it's just a matter of time.

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