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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
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    The Republic of Texas
    Personally, I can't stand the rule. Just let them declare out of high school. When a person graduates high school and is 18 years old, he should be able to pursue his line of work. As far as recruiting one and dones, you'd be foolish not to. They are the best players in their high school class 98% of the time

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Randolph View Post
    Personally, I can't stand the rule. Just let them declare out of high school. When a person graduates high school and is 18 years old, he should be able to pursue his line of work. As far as recruiting one and dones, you'd be foolish not to. They are the best players in their high school class 98% of the time
    Especially considering that not all the one and dones end up being one and dones. Jones at UK, Sullinger at Ohio State, and Barnes at UNC all stayed an "extra year." Duke has gotten lucky in this regard, too. McRoberts could have jumped (maybe he should have jumped) after his freshman season. Meanwhile, there are also surprise one and dones, like Moe Harkless of St. John's this year. Anyway, my point is that It is crazy to steer clear of a recruit just because you expect them to be one and done because there is no certainty that they will actually be one and done.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Thanks for supplying those numbers. Looking at it another way, though, before the one-and-done rule was instituted there were 8.8 players/year on average that came out before their sophomore year of college. (And it was trending up with 12.2 players/year for the 2001-5 timeframe.) Since the rule was instituted, there have been 8.3 players/year on average that came out before their sophomore year of college, a number smaller than the previous 8.8 average over the previous 10 years and much smaller than the 12.2 trend that was established for the previous 5 years.

    Thus, it seems like the one-and-done rule that the NBA has instituted has successfully served its purpose from the NBA perspective. That is, teams are more easily able to identify players that can cut it in the NBA after a year of high quality competition in the NCAA rather than having to make that determination at the high school level where there are more variables involved. It was much more likely in the past for a franchise to take a risk on a high schooler and end up being a bust, since they obviously hadn't played against top notch competition. So, from a pure numbers perspective, it seems like the rule has made more players stay in college past their freshman year, which may or may not be meaningful/good depending on your perspective. But again, as you said, these numbers are still miniscule in comparison to how many participants there are at the DI level.
    I think you may be misunderstanding one aspect of my post. I didn't indicate the number of players drafted straight out of high school or after one year of college. My numbers were the numbers of such players who made themselves available for the draft. There were quite a few who made themselves available, but were not drafted. Big mistakes by those players, obviously. But actually the NBA teams haven't made very many huge mistakes on high school players who came out. To wit, here are the draft positions of each of the high schoolers who have come out, and their NBA fates:

    1996:
    Kobe Bryant (round 1, selection 13): obvious all-time great
    Jermain O'Neal (round 1, selection 17): solid long-time pro and All-Star
    Taj McDavid: undrafted

    1997:
    Tracy McGrady (round 1, selection 9): multi-year all-star

    1998:
    Al Harrington (1, 25): solid pro
    Rashard Lewis (round 2, overall selection 32): solid pro
    Korleone Young (2, 40): nowhere
    Ellis Richardson: undrafted

    1999:
    Jonathan Bender (1,5) bad knee injuries early, probably wasn't going to be great but never had a fair chance to find out
    Leon Smith (1,29): nowhere. Psych problems. Sad.

    2000:
    Darius Miles (1,3): promising start, mainstay of a brief Clipper resurgence but it didn't last, he got hurt and was never the same. Never all that devoted to the game. Disappointment for sure.
    DeShawn Stevenson (1,23) Not a star, but now in his 12th year in the league, so doing something right

    2001:
    Kwame Brown (1,1): bust who somehow is still hanging around the league
    Tyson Chandler (1,2): defensive star and lockerroom stalwart, has a championship ring. Winning player.
    Eddie Curry (1,4): immature and rarely in shape, never came close to his potential. Can't really call him a bust though, as he averaged 19 and 7 one year, 16 another year, 13-14 ppg a few others. Just coulda been so much more.
    DeSagana Diop (1,8) servicable NBA big man backup, no more and no less. Still in the league at least.
    Ousmane Cisse (2,47) nothing
    Tony Key: undrafted

    2002:
    Amare Stoudemire (1,9): perennial NBA all-star
    DeAngelo Collins: undrafted
    Lenny Cooke: undrafted
    Giedrius Rinkevicius: undrafted

    2003:
    LeBron James (1,1): Hall of Famer
    Travis Outlaw (1,23): career rotation guy; still getting after it.
    Ndudi Ebi (1,26): nothing
    Kendrick Perkins (1,27): solid NBA starting center, has championship ring
    James Lang (2,48): nothing. Only played 11 games in the NBA. Paralyzed now -- sad.

    2004:
    Dwight Howard (1,1): perennial NBA All-Star
    Shaun Livingston (1,4):suffered horrific knee injury as a rookie, so we'll never know what he would've been.
    Robert Swift (1,12): unmitigated bust
    Sebastian Telfair (1,13): career backup, on his 6th or 7th NBA team. Supposed to be the next big thing.
    Al Jefferson (1,15): solid starting NBA center
    Josh Smith (1,17): solid NBA starter
    JR Smith (1,18): solid NBA player
    Dorrell Wright (1,19): averaged 16 for Golden State last year, double what he ever averaged for Miami in 6 yrs there
    Jackie Butler: undrafted

    2005:
    Martell Webster (1,6): regular starter in only one of his 6 years, career avg of about 9 ppg. Not so great.
    Gerald Green (1,8): bounced around between 4-5 NBA teams, then went overseas; not much of a career
    Andrew Bynum (1,10): solid starting NBA center, All-Star this year
    CJ Miles (2,34) role player for Utah for 6+ years, avg 8 ppg for his career. Can't expect much more than that from a second round pick.
    Ricky Sanchez (2,35) never played in an NBA game, I don't think
    Monta Ellis (2,40) high scoring starting NBA guard
    Lou Williams (2,45): 6 yr pro, mostly a backup with 11 ppg average, but averaging a very nice 15 ppg this yr
    Andray Blatche (2,49) improved his numbers each of his first 6 yrs; averaged 16 and 8 last year.
    Amir Johnson (2,56) backup for his first 5 yrs before starting for Toronto last year, averaging 9 and 6.
    Kyle Luckett: undrafted
    Curtis Brown: undrafted



    So: to me, the expectations for a second round pick almost always have to be low. Most of them don't even make the team, so I don't think it would be fair to categorize a high school kid who's picked in the second round, and doesn't make it, as a bust, because most college players who are drafted in the second round don't make it either.

    So how many of those high schoolers who were drafted in the first round could fairly be called out and out busts? I'd say the following: Kwame Brown, Ndudi Ebi, and Robert Swift. Brown at least had a career, somehow. Ebi was drafted at the end of the first round. Swift was #12. Based on that, I'd say he was the worst high school draft pick ever. But more importantly, that's only 3 out and out whiffs (if you even want to count Brown -- if not, then it's only 2) by NBA teams on high schoolers in the first round. That's not very many in ten years of drafting.

    Sure a number of other guys fell far short of expectations -- guys like Telfair, Webster, and Green and then guys who suffered bad injuries like Livingston and Bender and guys with other issues like Leon Smith, but those are different stories.

    Totalling it up, 47 high schoolers declared. The NBA drafted 28 of them in the first round, 10 in the second round, and 9 of them were undrafted. Of the 28 first rounders, like I say, I only consider three of them to be out and out busts. And of the 10 second rounders, six have had careers I think have been better than what you'd have a right to expect out of a second rounder. That's damn good. And of course, none of the 9 who went undrafted ever made it into the league anyway. No "misses" there.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Van Nuys, CA
    No reason to whine about it. Until the NBA Players Associations votes to change the one and done it is staying.The next NBA commissioner will be a Duke grad, Adam Silver.

    http://www.nba.com/nba101/adam_silver.html

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    tommy's analysis is really interesting and points out something else about the NBA.

    The draft is like any market. The NBA wants as much supply so that they have lots of choices. If you do count the undrafted and the "busts" only about 1/2 the players that left early had long NBA careers.

    This is exactly what the NBA wants more supply than demand. The teams with good scouting systems want this even more since teams with poor scouting systems usually take the players that end up being busts.

    What does that mean to the players entering the draft. The NBA scouts and teams will over promise your standing in the draft. They absolutely do not want you to know that you will go undrafted or that you are a second rounder. The more supply the better off the good NBA teams are at getting what they need.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    So how many of those high schoolers who were drafted in the first round could fairly be called out and out busts? I'd say the following: Kwame Brown, Ndudi Ebi, and Robert Swift. Brown at least had a career, somehow. Ebi was drafted at the end of the first round. Swift was #12. Based on that, I'd say he was the worst high school draft pick ever. But more importantly, that's only 3 out and out whiffs (if you even want to count Brown -- if not, then it's only 2) by NBA teams on high schoolers in the first round. That's not very many in ten years of drafting.
    And if you're going to account for injuries, Swift shouldn't count as a bust either. He blew out his knee after his sophomore season and missed a full year after looking like he might break out and never recovered properly from it.

  7. #47
    I don't mind the one-and-done rule so much. The NCAA's rules preventing student-athletes from earning a living are far, far more egregious. One could argue that the NBA is a bit sleazy to exploit the NCAA's well-known obsession with "amateurism", but the fault ultimately lies with the universities who support this utterly broken model for extracurricular activity.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Berg View Post
    I don't mind the one-and-done rule so much. The NCAA's rules preventing student-athletes from earning a living are far, far more egregious. One could argue that the NBA is a bit sleazy to exploit the NCAA's well-known obsession with "amateurism", but the fault ultimately lies with the universities who support this utterly broken model for extracurricular activity.
    I don't think it is "egregious." As a matter of fact, I don't think college athletes (in this case lets just say D-1 basketball players) should receive more than they already do. These athletes receive a monthly living check that is PLENTY to support a college student, I had a friend who played women's basketball in the Missouri Valley Conference and her monthly check was $700. If a woman player in the MVC is receiving that, I would imagine a male athlete at a big time school is doing alright Also, these athletes are on full or close to full scholarship, provided their own training table for meals and given tons of free clothes/gear. I think they are doing alrigth for college students!

  9. #49
    I don't think it is "egregious." As a matter of fact, I don't think college athletes (in this case lets just say D-1 basketball players) should receive more than they already do.
    Luckily it's not your decision. It's egregious that some people, including vested interests within the NCAA, think they have some kind of moral authority to restrict what legal adults can earn in their free time.

    These athletes receive a monthly living check that is PLENTY to support a college student, I had a friend who played women's basketball in the Missouri Valley Conference and her monthly check was $700. If a woman player in the MVC is receiving that, I would imagine a male athlete at a big time school is doing alright Also, these athletes are on full or close to full scholarship, provided their own training table for meals and given tons of free clothes/gear.
    I am fine with schools offering less generous scholarship packages. That is their perogative. If the reports of widespread losses in well-known athletic departments are to be believed, most schools should devote fewer resources to such perks.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Berg View Post
    Luckily it's not your decision. It's egregious that some people, including vested interests within the NCAA, think they have some kind of moral authority to restrict what legal adults can earn in their free time.


    I am fine with schools offering less generous scholarship packages. That is their perogative. If the reports of widespread losses in well-known athletic departments are to be believed, most schools should devote fewer resources to such perks.
    I definitely would agree with you that it is pathetic that these athletes are not able to hold some kind of job, whether it be in the off season or summer.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Randolph View Post
    I definitely would agree with you that it is pathetic that these athletes are not able to hold some kind of job, whether it be in the off season or summer.
    I'm not sure where this athletes aren't allowed to work thing came from but it's simply not true.

    From the NCAA Bylaws:

    12.4 EMPLOYMENT
    12.4.1 Criteria governing Compensation to student-Athletes. Compensation may be paid to a
    student-athlete: (Revised: 11/22/04)
    (a) Only for work actually performed; and
    (b) At a rate commensurate with the going rate in that locality for similar services

    so they have to actually work and get paid the same as any other person in their position, wow what terrible restrictions.

  12. #52
    That's a pretty misleading summary of Article 12, which devotes dozens of pages to the myriad things student-athletes cannot do.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Of the 28 first rounders, like I say, I only consider three of them to be out and out busts.
    You left out Kevin Garnett

    That being said, I'd argue you're a bit generous with the guys who are "busts". I mean, I'd say Telfair is every bit as much of a disappointment as Kwame Brown, who at least has been a part-time starter long after he was written off.

    I think your point is well-taken on the fact that the NBA generally evaluates their talent reasonably and drafts HSers appropriately, but the fact that they've instituted the "one-and-done" rule has given lie to the long-held belief that "the NBA can develop players just as well as college has". A guy like Korleone Young or CJ Young-- talented, athletic players with maturity problems-- could have benefited from a year or two playing at the college level before making the leap to an 82-game season against men, and likely would not have been 2nd round draft picks. Of course, it's a pure hypothetical, so we'll never know, but it seems as though the NBA buys it.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I feel the same way about it now as I did before Kyrie and Austin.
    I think it sucks.
    I agree with this educated comment.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by KYtotheCore View Post
    Cal still says he isn't a fan of the rule, but it's an NBA problem to address, and until they do, it's in-bounds.

    I have no problem with athletes leaving school early for the pros. Baseball, Tennis, and Golf players all leave for the pros if they think they are ready. I see no reason to stay in school if you hae a chance to make millions playing sports. I know I would leave early.

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    The most dangerous type of person for college sports isn't John Calipari or David Stern. It's Jay Bilas.

    I don't expect Stern or the NBA to do what's right for college basketball out of the goodness of their heart. And while I don't like Calipari, I see his presence as expected and maybe inevitable - as long as rules like the one-and-done thing exist, people are going to try to take advantage of it, and eventually, somebody is going to be really good at taking advantage of it.

    What's there's absolutely no need for is voices of legitimate authority giving credibility to the idea of professionalizing college sports. Jay Bilas and Joe Nocera and other genuinely intelligent people have given life to the myth that college athletes are some poor exploited class of people that are treated more unfairly than the average college student. I know plenty of smart, good people I respect who believe this, just like I know smart, good people I respect who believe man has never walked on the Moon or that Bigfoot exists or that Bin Laden is alive, and my reaction is much the same in all these situations - it's such a laughable proposition to me that I don't even know where to begin.

    College athletes get a free education, lots of free clothing, free food, free housing, free networking for jobs if they don't make it in the NBA or NFL or whatever, lots of free travel, and perhaps most relevantly free exposure to the professional leagues. To say nothing of the intangible social benefits. And I'm completely OK with all of this - I love college sports and most college athletes, and think they deserve very significant benefits. But how can anyone say that not only is all this not enough, but that it's not enough in such a fundamental way that it's a huge moral issue comparable to, at worst slavery and at best poverty? I wonder how many impoverished people there are out there who would kill to be exploited like Anthony Davis - or even the last guy on the Kentucky bench - is being exploited.

    A common response is that college sports are already professionalized. If people here really believe that, tell me - or better yet, tell Jim Sumner or airowe - how much Austin Rivers was illegally paid to play at Duke. Tell me where the NCAA draft was that decided where everyone was going to play.

    I'm not naive. I know there's a ton of sketchy things that go on, I know there are a lot of instances of individual athletes being treated unfairly, and I know there's a lot of really stupid NCAA rules. I think it's ridiculous that anyone would vilify Austin Rivers or Kendall Marshall for turning pro. I can support all kinds of reform - I've heard Bilas ask why we don't let undrafted players come back to school if they never played a minute of professional ball and our goal is truly education, and that seems like a reasonable change to make to me. There are countless other examples of things we can change. But the idea that we're just going to throw our hands up and professionalize the whole damn thing in response and completely give up on the very idea of college athletics is absurd.

    No matter how many times this tired line gets repeated by Bilas or Nocera, amateurism isn't some awful, outdated, evil, corrupt concept. But what will eventually kill college sports is when enough people believe that it is.

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Well said Wander, well said. I like what you are preaching!

  18. #58
    What is the advantage of amateurism? If our goal is education, why not let a guy like Allen Iverson come back to college, when he so clearly needs it?

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by turnandburn55 View Post

    That being said, I'd argue you're a bit generous with the guys who are "busts". I mean, I'd say Telfair is every bit as much of a disappointment as Kwame Brown, who at least has been a part-time starter long after he was written off.
    Maybe so, but they're both still hanging around the fringes of the league. And I still think Brown has to be considered the far bigger bust if only because he was the #1 overall pick in the draft. #1 overall!! Telfair was #13.

    Quote Originally Posted by turnandburn55 View Post
    I think your point is well-taken on the fact that the NBA generally evaluates their talent reasonably and drafts HSers appropriately, but the fact that they've instituted the "one-and-done" rule has given lie to the long-held belief that "the NBA can develop players just as well as college has".
    I don't understand your point. Why does it follow from the fact of the NBA instituting the one-and-done rule that this means the NBA can't develop players as well as college? Are you saying that the reason the NBA instituted the rule is because it wanted the college coaches and programs to handle the first year of post-high school development, as some sort of admission that they (the NBA) couldn't handle it?

    While wondering what your support is for that assertion, if that is what you mean to be saying, I'd say that the NBA has done a fine job of developing the following non-elite players who came into the league straight from high school:

    Jermaine O'Neal (sat on Portland's bench, developing, a long time before being ready to contribute -- ended up an all-star in Indiana)
    Rashard Lewis (second rounder to all-star)
    DeShawn Stevenson
    Tyson Chandler
    Travis Outlaw
    Kendrick Perkins
    Al Jefferson
    Josh Smith
    JR Smith
    Dorrell Wright
    Andray Blatche (second rounder)
    Andrew Bynum
    Monta Ellis (second rounder)
    CJ Miles (second rounder)
    Lou Williams

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Berg View Post
    What is the advantage of amateurism? If our goal is education, why not let a guy like Allen Iverson come back to college, when he so clearly needs it?
    Iverson can come back to college any time he wants-- that is, if he can come up with enough scratch to pay his own way-- seeing as he's dead broke. Iverson doesn't "clearly need college"-- he needs an attitude adjustment to lose his sense of entitlement, and he needs to kick his alcohol addiction... until he does that, I doubt he's going to do much learning in college, whether he comes back or not.

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