Personally, I can't stand the rule. Just let them declare out of high school. When a person graduates high school and is 18 years old, he should be able to pursue his line of work. As far as recruiting one and dones, you'd be foolish not to. They are the best players in their high school class 98% of the time
Kobe Bryant (round 1, selection 13): obvious all-time great
Jermain O'Neal (round 1, selection 17): solid long-time pro and All-Star
Taj McDavid: undrafted
Tracy McGrady (round 1, selection 9): multi-year all-star
Al Harrington (1, 25): solid pro
Rashard Lewis (round 2, overall selection 32): solid pro
Korleone Young (2, 40): nowhere
Ellis Richardson: undrafted
Jonathan Bender (1,5) bad knee injuries early, probably wasn't going to be great but never had a fair chance to find out
Leon Smith (1,29): nowhere. Psych problems. Sad.
Darius Miles (1,3): promising start, mainstay of a brief Clipper resurgence but it didn't last, he got hurt and was never the same. Never all that devoted to the game. Disappointment for sure.
DeShawn Stevenson (1,23) Not a star, but now in his 12th year in the league, so doing something right
Kwame Brown (1,1): bust who somehow is still hanging around the league
Tyson Chandler (1,2): defensive star and lockerroom stalwart, has a championship ring. Winning player.
Eddie Curry (1,4): immature and rarely in shape, never came close to his potential. Can't really call him a bust though, as he averaged 19 and 7 one year, 16 another year, 13-14 ppg a few others. Just coulda been so much more.
DeSagana Diop (1,8) servicable NBA big man backup, no more and no less. Still in the league at least.
Ousmane Cisse (2,47) nothing
Tony Key: undrafted
Amare Stoudemire (1,9): perennial NBA all-star
DeAngelo Collins: undrafted
Lenny Cooke: undrafted
Giedrius Rinkevicius: undrafted
LeBron James (1,1): Hall of Famer
Travis Outlaw (1,23): career rotation guy; still getting after it.
Ndudi Ebi (1,26): nothing
Kendrick Perkins (1,27): solid NBA starting center, has championship ring
James Lang (2,48): nothing. Only played 11 games in the NBA. Paralyzed now -- sad.
Dwight Howard (1,1): perennial NBA All-Star
Shaun Livingston (1,4):suffered horrific knee injury as a rookie, so we'll never know what he would've been.
Robert Swift (1,12): unmitigated bust
Sebastian Telfair (1,13): career backup, on his 6th or 7th NBA team. Supposed to be the next big thing.
Al Jefferson (1,15): solid starting NBA center
Josh Smith (1,17): solid NBA starter
JR Smith (1,18): solid NBA player
Dorrell Wright (1,19): averaged 16 for Golden State last year, double what he ever averaged for Miami in 6 yrs there
Jackie Butler: undrafted
Martell Webster (1,6): regular starter in only one of his 6 years, career avg of about 9 ppg. Not so great.
Gerald Green (1,8): bounced around between 4-5 NBA teams, then went overseas; not much of a career
Andrew Bynum (1,10): solid starting NBA center, All-Star this year
CJ Miles (2,34) role player for Utah for 6+ years, avg 8 ppg for his career. Can't expect much more than that from a second round pick.
Ricky Sanchez (2,35) never played in an NBA game, I don't think
Monta Ellis (2,40) high scoring starting NBA guard
Lou Williams (2,45): 6 yr pro, mostly a backup with 11 ppg average, but averaging a very nice 15 ppg this yr
Andray Blatche (2,49) improved his numbers each of his first 6 yrs; averaged 16 and 8 last year.
Amir Johnson (2,56) backup for his first 5 yrs before starting for Toronto last year, averaging 9 and 6.
Kyle Luckett: undrafted
Curtis Brown: undrafted
So: to me, the expectations for a second round pick almost always have to be low. Most of them don't even make the team, so I don't think it would be fair to categorize a high school kid who's picked in the second round, and doesn't make it, as a bust, because most college players who are drafted in the second round don't make it either.
So how many of those high schoolers who were drafted in the first round could fairly be called out and out busts? I'd say the following: Kwame Brown, Ndudi Ebi, and Robert Swift. Brown at least had a career, somehow. Ebi was drafted at the end of the first round. Swift was #12. Based on that, I'd say he was the worst high school draft pick ever. But more importantly, that's only 3 out and out whiffs (if you even want to count Brown -- if not, then it's only 2) by NBA teams on high schoolers in the first round. That's not very many in ten years of drafting.
Sure a number of other guys fell far short of expectations -- guys like Telfair, Webster, and Green and then guys who suffered bad injuries like Livingston and Bender and guys with other issues like Leon Smith, but those are different stories.
Totalling it up, 47 high schoolers declared. The NBA drafted 28 of them in the first round, 10 in the second round, and 9 of them were undrafted. Of the 28 first rounders, like I say, I only consider three of them to be out and out busts. And of the 10 second rounders, six have had careers I think have been better than what you'd have a right to expect out of a second rounder. That's damn good. And of course, none of the 9 who went undrafted ever made it into the league anyway. No "misses" there.
No reason to whine about it. Until the NBA Players Associations votes to change the one and done it is staying.The next NBA commissioner will be a Duke grad, Adam Silver.
tommy's analysis is really interesting and points out something else about the NBA.
The draft is like any market. The NBA wants as much supply so that they have lots of choices. If you do count the undrafted and the "busts" only about 1/2 the players that left early had long NBA careers.
This is exactly what the NBA wants more supply than demand. The teams with good scouting systems want this even more since teams with poor scouting systems usually take the players that end up being busts.
What does that mean to the players entering the draft. The NBA scouts and teams will over promise your standing in the draft. They absolutely do not want you to know that you will go undrafted or that you are a second rounder. The more supply the better off the good NBA teams are at getting what they need.
I don't mind the one-and-done rule so much. The NCAA's rules preventing student-athletes from earning a living are far, far more egregious. One could argue that the NBA is a bit sleazy to exploit the NCAA's well-known obsession with "amateurism", but the fault ultimately lies with the universities who support this utterly broken model for extracurricular activity.
Luckily it's not your decision. It's egregious that some people, including vested interests within the NCAA, think they have some kind of moral authority to restrict what legal adults can earn in their free time.I don't think it is "egregious." As a matter of fact, I don't think college athletes (in this case lets just say D-1 basketball players) should receive more than they already do.
I am fine with schools offering less generous scholarship packages. That is their perogative. If the reports of widespread losses in well-known athletic departments are to be believed, most schools should devote fewer resources to such perks.These athletes receive a monthly living check that is PLENTY to support a college student, I had a friend who played women's basketball in the Missouri Valley Conference and her monthly check was $700. If a woman player in the MVC is receiving that, I would imagine a male athlete at a big time school is doing alright Also, these athletes are on full or close to full scholarship, provided their own training table for meals and given tons of free clothes/gear.
From the NCAA Bylaws:
12.4.1 Criteria governing Compensation to student-Athletes. Compensation may be paid to a
student-athlete: (Revised: 11/22/04)
(a) Only for work actually performed; and
(b) At a rate commensurate with the going rate in that locality for similar services
so they have to actually work and get paid the same as any other person in their position, wow what terrible restrictions.
That being said, I'd argue you're a bit generous with the guys who are "busts". I mean, I'd say Telfair is every bit as much of a disappointment as Kwame Brown, who at least has been a part-time starter long after he was written off.
I think your point is well-taken on the fact that the NBA generally evaluates their talent reasonably and drafts HSers appropriately, but the fact that they've instituted the "one-and-done" rule has given lie to the long-held belief that "the NBA can develop players just as well as college has". A guy like Korleone Young or CJ Young-- talented, athletic players with maturity problems-- could have benefited from a year or two playing at the college level before making the leap to an 82-game season against men, and likely would not have been 2nd round draft picks. Of course, it's a pure hypothetical, so we'll never know, but it seems as though the NBA buys it.
I have no problem with athletes leaving school early for the pros. Baseball, Tennis, and Golf players all leave for the pros if they think they are ready. I see no reason to stay in school if you hae a chance to make millions playing sports. I know I would leave early.
The most dangerous type of person for college sports isn't John Calipari or David Stern. It's Jay Bilas.
I don't expect Stern or the NBA to do what's right for college basketball out of the goodness of their heart. And while I don't like Calipari, I see his presence as expected and maybe inevitable - as long as rules like the one-and-done thing exist, people are going to try to take advantage of it, and eventually, somebody is going to be really good at taking advantage of it.
What's there's absolutely no need for is voices of legitimate authority giving credibility to the idea of professionalizing college sports. Jay Bilas and Joe Nocera and other genuinely intelligent people have given life to the myth that college athletes are some poor exploited class of people that are treated more unfairly than the average college student. I know plenty of smart, good people I respect who believe this, just like I know smart, good people I respect who believe man has never walked on the Moon or that Bigfoot exists or that Bin Laden is alive, and my reaction is much the same in all these situations - it's such a laughable proposition to me that I don't even know where to begin.
College athletes get a free education, lots of free clothing, free food, free housing, free networking for jobs if they don't make it in the NBA or NFL or whatever, lots of free travel, and perhaps most relevantly free exposure to the professional leagues. To say nothing of the intangible social benefits. And I'm completely OK with all of this - I love college sports and most college athletes, and think they deserve very significant benefits. But how can anyone say that not only is all this not enough, but that it's not enough in such a fundamental way that it's a huge moral issue comparable to, at worst slavery and at best poverty? I wonder how many impoverished people there are out there who would kill to be exploited like Anthony Davis - or even the last guy on the Kentucky bench - is being exploited.
A common response is that college sports are already professionalized. If people here really believe that, tell me - or better yet, tell Jim Sumner or airowe - how much Austin Rivers was illegally paid to play at Duke. Tell me where the NCAA draft was that decided where everyone was going to play.
I'm not naive. I know there's a ton of sketchy things that go on, I know there are a lot of instances of individual athletes being treated unfairly, and I know there's a lot of really stupid NCAA rules. I think it's ridiculous that anyone would vilify Austin Rivers or Kendall Marshall for turning pro. I can support all kinds of reform - I've heard Bilas ask why we don't let undrafted players come back to school if they never played a minute of professional ball and our goal is truly education, and that seems like a reasonable change to make to me. There are countless other examples of things we can change. But the idea that we're just going to throw our hands up and professionalize the whole damn thing in response and completely give up on the very idea of college athletics is absurd.
No matter how many times this tired line gets repeated by Bilas or Nocera, amateurism isn't some awful, outdated, evil, corrupt concept. But what will eventually kill college sports is when enough people believe that it is.
Well said Wander, well said. I like what you are preaching!
What is the advantage of amateurism? If our goal is education, why not let a guy like Allen Iverson come back to college, when he so clearly needs it?
While wondering what your support is for that assertion, if that is what you mean to be saying, I'd say that the NBA has done a fine job of developing the following non-elite players who came into the league straight from high school:
Jermaine O'Neal (sat on Portland's bench, developing, a long time before being ready to contribute -- ended up an all-star in Indiana)
Rashard Lewis (second rounder to all-star)
Andray Blatche (second rounder)
Monta Ellis (second rounder)
CJ Miles (second rounder)