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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    I included this post in another thread...but it's just as relevant here. Everyone's favorite, Grantland.com, has published a thoughtful, if a little alarmist, Chuck Klosterman piece about how the colleghe bball landscape may further change if Kentucky wins the title this year:

    Kentucky's Death March - They're going to win. And what happens next will be really bad for college basketball.
    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...ege-basketball

    "So let's assume Kentucky succeeds. Let's assume they rampage through their final two games. It will disprove a lot of lingering suspicions about what does (and doesn't) work. It will mean that winning a title with freshmen and sophomores is not only plausible, but logical and inarguable. That realization will knock the system out of balance. Right now, there are always two foolproof arguments against the Calipari ideal it reflects badly on the university, and it breaks down in moments that matter most. No one is going to emulate a program with a bad reputation if the end result is the same as doing things the way they've always been done. But that argument evaporates the moment Calipari climbs a ladder and cuts a net. If Kentucky is simultaneously the most straightforward finishing school for future professionals and the best place to win a national championship, there's no reason for a blue-chip high school senior to go anywhere else. Calipari will dynastically dominate with a revolving door of sheer horsepower, and the only way other schools will be able to respond is by becoming exactly like him.

    Now, I'm not suggesting that every single college will turn into a clone of Kentucky, because that's impossible. There aren't enough good players in America for that to happen. But Calipari's scheme will become standard at a handful of universities where losing at basketball is unacceptable: North Carolina, Syracuse, Kansas, UCLA, and maybe even Duke. These schools already recruit one-and-done freshmen, but they'll have to go further; they'll have to be as transparent about their motives as Calipari is (because transparency is the obsession of modernity). If they resist, they will fade. And the result will be a radical amplification of what the game has already become: There will be five schools sharing the 25 best players in the country, and all the lesser programs will kill each other for the right to lose to those five schools in the Sweet 16. It will skew the competitive balance of major conferences and split D-I basketball into two completely unequal tiers. Final Four games will look more and more like sloppy pro games, and national interest in college basketball will wane (even if the level of play technically increases).5 In 10 years, it might be a niche sport for people like me people who can't get over the past."

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Lar77 View Post
    I agree with most of what you say, but have a couple of different impressions.

    First, my recollection was that Kyrie Irving was assumed originally to be a 2-3 year Dukie. I recall that he was coming in with enough advanced placement credits that, with summer school, he could graduate in 2 years or so. He developed much more quickly than expected, and well, you know the rest.
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    I disagree with Irving. He was a great player and had high expectations coming into the game. But did anyone expect him to leave in October? He exceeded expectations which is why it wasn't surprising when he declared. IMO, and I have no way to prove this, but I'm not sure Coach K recruited Kyrie to be one-and-done. It's just not very Coach-K-esque.
    Kyrie was getting Top 5 guarantees from NBA GMs during pickup games before Countdown to Craziness in 2010. It became clear through his senior year of high school that he was a special talent and would likely only be in college for one year.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by dcdevil2009 View Post
    I disagree with that being Duke's recent strategy, although it's been the result. In the past few years we've gotten two one-year players, but we've recruited more projected one-year guys late into the period, but weren't able to land them (Harrison Barnes and Quincy Miller anyone?).
    We can agree to disagree then. Quincy Miller and Harrison Barnes not coming to Duke did not materialize in the same manner.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Dallas
    Quote Originally Posted by airowe View Post
    We can agree to disagree then. Quincy Miller and Harrison Barnes not coming to Duke did not materialize in the same manner.
    100% agree. Harrison Barnes was the girl you pine after for a year, begging for a chance to take the prom. Quincy Miller was the girl you asked because you realized didn't have a date 2 weeks before the event.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I included this post in another thread...but it's just as relevant here. Everyone's favorite, Grantland.com, has published a thoughtful, if a little alarmist, Chuck Klosterman piece about how the colleghe bball landscape may further change if Kentucky wins the title this year:
    Alarmist is right.

    The other three final four teams, combined, start a total of one freshman. As far as I can tell, the last national champion to have a one-and-done player was... 2005 Carolina with Marvin Williams, who didn't even start. Kentucky winning would be notable as the youngest team in a long time to win the title, but it wouldn't make a trend by itself. If Kentucky wins three years in a row with different one-and-done players, then we can start talking about being afraid the landscape of the game is dramatically changing.

    I remember Pat Forde predicting in 2007 (when Florida and Ohio State played for the title) that we were taking a turn into an era where mega-football schools were going to rule the basketball world. Short-sighted, and so is this.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by unexpected View Post
    100% agree. Harrison Barnes was the girl you pine after for a year, begging for a chance to take the prom. Quincy Miller was the girl you asked because you realized didn't have a date 2 weeks before the event.
    Are you thinking of someone else? That doesn't sound like the Miller recruitment at all. Miller was more like the girl that wanted to the prom with you, but couldn't because her handlers had too many ties to the wrong shoe company.

    Sorry, the metaphor fell apart a bit there.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Are you thinking of someone else? That doesn't sound like the Miller recruitment at all. Miller was more like the girl that wanted to the prom with you, but couldn't because her handlers had too many ties to the wrong shoe company.

    Sorry, the metaphor fell apart a bit there.
    That totally happened with one of my would-be prom dates. Handlers and shoe companies, scourge of young love everywhere.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by airowe View Post
    We can agree to disagree then. Quincy Miller and Harrison Barnes not coming to Duke did not materialize in the same manner.
    I didn't mean to say that their recruitments were the same and probably misspoke by saying late in the period, when late in the player's recruiting. I remember Miller cutting us from his list before his final decision, but that decision came very soon after he took us off of his list. Maybe I'm misremembering and that it was mutual once Austin committed, but I remember it being him who said no to us and not the other way around. The point I was trying to make is that in recent past, we've recruited multiple projected one and dones each year and have been among the finalists for them late into their decision-making process. I don't think that because we've only landed one each year that we weren't actively trying to limit ourselves to just one. However, I do agree that the Barnes spectacle and Miller decision didn't come about in the same way and that missing one stung a lot more than missing the other.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Venice, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Let's keep this in perspective.

    Over the last two seasons, Calipari has had six one-and-dones at kentucky (counting Kanter, who never actually got to play for the Cats). He'll add at least two more this year (Davis and Gilchrist).

    In his 32 years, K has had a total of four one-and-dones -- Maggette in 1999, Deng in 2004, Irving in 2011 and Rivers in 2012. I agree that one each in the last two years is more than we're used to, but nothing like the Calipari pace.

    K has always gone for the top players -- Danny Ferry was the nation's No. 1 prospect in 1985 ... in 1997, he signed three guys that were rated No. 1 by one major service (Brand, Battier and Burgess). Sometimes he gets therm, sometimes he doesn't.

    If he gets Muhammad, that would probably be his third straight one-and-done ... doubt that Sulaimon is one-and-done (although anything's possible). Neither Parker nor Jefferson is likely to be a one-and-done.

    K said a long time ago that in the modern era, you have to balance the short-term super prospects and the long term guys who give you continuity and experience. Overall, I think he's done a great job of that,
    Wasn't Wil Avery a one-and-done?

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Steve68 View Post
    Wasn't Wil Avery a one-and-done?
    no, he left after his sophomore year

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by dcdevil2009 View Post
    I didn't mean to say that their recruitments were the same and probably misspoke by saying late in the period, when late in the player's recruiting. I remember Miller cutting us from his list before his final decision, but that decision came very soon after he took us off of his list. Maybe I'm misremembering and that it was mutual once Austin committed, but I remember it being him who said no to us and not the other way around. The point I was trying to make is that in recent past, we've recruited multiple projected one and dones each year and have been among the finalists for them late into their decision-making process. I don't think that because we've only landed one each year that we weren't actively trying to limit ourselves to just one. However, I do agree that the Barnes spectacle and Miller decision didn't come about in the same way and that missing one stung a lot more than missing the other.
    That's what I was getting at. Quincy was effectively uninvited from attending CTC a day or two before the event. Even after this, he still expressed interest in coming to Duke.

    Harrison Barnes chose (unwisely imo) UNC over Duke and others. Quincy Miller was not in a position to make the sam.e decision.

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Asheville
    What is the effect on future bball scholarships and post season play, as set by the existing NCAA rules, when losing players early to the NBA, considering graduation rates, etc? While I could see a dampening effect due to sanctions regarding post season play, a limited loss of scholarships probably wouldn't do much considering that there wouldn't be much all-star bench play necessary, anyway, as a lot of these "future stars" wouldn't come if they had to sit on the bench and watch someone else get all the glory.

    ricks

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    That totally happened with one of my would-be prom dates.
    Yah, sure pfrduke, keep telling yourself that.
    My own self, otoh, was a vision of loveliness in my awesome coolness silver prom dress with the sweet stacked heels....shudder
    My daughter refuses to let me forget it..........

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Alarmist is right.

    The other three final four teams, combined, start a total of one freshman. As far as I can tell, the last national champion to have a one-and-done player was... 2005 Carolina with Marvin Williams, who didn't even start. Kentucky winning would be notable as the youngest team in a long time to win the title, but it wouldn't make a trend by itself. If Kentucky wins three years in a row with different one-and-done players, then we can start talking about being afraid the landscape of the game is dramatically changing.

    I remember Pat Forde predicting in 2007 (when Florida and Ohio State played for the title) that we were taking a turn into an era where mega-football schools were going to rule the basketball world. Short-sighted, and so is this.
    Thank you...the idea that you can continually win every year with one and done players is silly. UK was able to get a dominant big man to add to their usual haul of talent. That is the difference this season. I don't know why there is this rush to take this one season and extrapolate the future of college basketball (Duke and otherwise).

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by MaxAMillion View Post
    Thank you...the idea that you can continually win every year with one and done players is silly. UK was able to get a dominant big man to add to their usual haul of talent. That is the difference this season. I don't know why there is this rush to take this one season and extrapolate the future of college basketball (Duke and otherwise).
    I guess it depends on how you define "win". Obviously, no one can win the title every year, but Cal has had a heck of a run since he took over at Memphis and started embracing one-and-dones like no other. In the last 7 years, his teams have been to 3 Final Fours, 3 Regional Finals and 1 Sweet 16. Yes, one of those seasons no longer count in the record books, and he's yet to win a title. But, as the article states, should his team win one this year, he shows no signs of stopping. If Davis, Gilchrest and Jones all leave, there are a bunch of blue chippers holding out to potentially fill those slots. Obviously, Klosterman wrote an article to provoke thought and discussion, so it takes a strong position, but I don't think it's a crazy notion.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I guess it depends on how you define "win". Obviously, no one can win the title every year, but Cal has had a heck of a run since he took over at Memphis and started embracing one-and-dones like no other. In the last 7 years, his teams have been to 3 Final Fours, 3 Regional Finals and 1 Sweet 16. Yes, one of those seasons no longer count in the record books, and he's yet to win a title. But, as the article states, should his team win one this year, he shows no signs of stopping. If Davis, Gilchrest and Jones all leave, there are a bunch of blue chippers holding out to potentially fill those slots. Obviously, Klosterman wrote an article to provoke thought and discussion, so it takes a strong position, but I don't think it's a crazy notion.
    Not to give our unc foes too much praise, but in the same 7 years ol Roy has 2 NCAA championships, 1 other final four, 2 regional finals and the crown jewel an NIT runner up banner. The point is there is enough talent around or that can be developed during a 3-4 year career that one and done players are only one approach to winning NOT the only approach. Besides...UK still needs to beat Louisville and never underestimated a rivalry game.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA
    Quote Originally Posted by unexpected View Post
    100% agree. Harrison Barnes was the girl you pine after for a year, begging for a chance to take the prom. Quincy Miller was the girl you asked because you realized didn't have a date 2 weeks before the event.
    Yeah, but HB is also the girl that you later realized was all stuck up on herself, really high maintenance, and you think you might have just dodged a bullet after all...
    -BDBD

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