Louisville is slightly over-matched, but I don't think they are completely outclassed. They
fought hard against UK in the annual rivalry game on Dec. 31. They managed to hold the Wildcats to slightly under 30% shooting, overall, but lost because they didn't shoot much better (32%) and got trounced on the boards 28-49. Louisville has KenPom's top-ranked defense and, if they are able to force UK into a similarly poor shooting performance, grab a few more boards than last time, and hit a few more shots, they definitely have a chance to pull off the upset. On the other hand, if the Wildcats can hit at a decent clip from three point range (which is no guarantee), then I think UK's superior offense and strong defense will be too much combined for the Cardinals.
I agree with those who say that this game is maybe second only to a Duke/UNC Final Four matchup, though, in terms of rivalry implications . . . and with Pitino coaching Louisville! Wow.