MBB: Midwest Region Final - Kansas 80, UNC 67

[alteran]

But the thing is...by next year, or 2 years down the road, nobody will remember anything other than we split with UNC, neither team won the natty, and rivers' shot...10 years down the road nobody is going to say "but they won a few more games overall"

Bingo. The only thing people will remember in 10 years will be Austin's shot in the House That Dean Built.

[devildeac]

Weber steak.

I gotta admit, Cap'n, that's pretty funny/clever.

[alteran]

Pat Forde plays this tired card after almost every game between two high profile coaches. I don't buy the out-coaching bit, rarely ever.

Well, Pat's not alone this time-- Greg Barnes, one of the house journalists at IC (i.e., not the boards) called Roy out on this in his article. Of particular note is that Roy flat-out said he only saw a triangle-and-two for 1 or 2 plays, whereas Self said Kansas ran it for the final-- and decisive-- 8-9 minutes.

Methinks Roy is lucky he can't be sued for coaching malpractice.

[CDu]

Well, Pat's not alone this time-- Greg Barnes, one of the house journalists at IC (i.e., not the boards) called Roy out on this in his article. Of particular note is that Roy flat-out said he only saw a triangle-and-two for 1 or 2 plays, whereas Self said Kansas ran it for the final-- and decisive-- 8-9 minutes.

Methinks Roy is lucky he can't be sued for coaching malpractice.

I think Williams is just not good at handling adversity. He's a terrific recruiter and he runs an often effective system. But when things get tough he doesn't react well to it. And I think his players sense that and play tight when he gets tight. I also don't think he's a great in-game coach. Quotes like these only serve to strengthen my belief that this is accurate.

Don't get me wrong - he's certainly proven he can recruit and run his system at an elite level. But it just seems strange that he doesn't call timeouts when his team is getting killed (KU game a few years ago) and he doesn't recognize a junk defense that is rendering his offense immobile for 8 minutes.

[mkirsh]

I'm going to violate the rule about not comparing players of different race, but I still can't understand how Barnes is viewed as a lottery pick when Kyle Singler went in the second round?

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/com...1=kyle-singler

Comparing Kyle's senior year to Barnes soph season, stats are incredibly similar - Barnes scores more per minute (23.3 to 19.4 points per 40), partly due to a higher usage rate (26.1% to 23.5%), and partly due to getting to the line more (37.4% vs 30.4% FTA/FGA). On a points per shot basis, they are almost identical (Barnes 1.24 vs Singler 1.23). Barnes is a very slightly better 3 pt shooter (35.8% compared to Kyle's senior year of 32.1%, but not other years (Fr 34%, So 38%, Jr 40%)), while Singler is better from 2 (49.7% to 46.9%) and from the line (80.6% to 72.3%). Singler is a better rebounder (7.9 per 40 vs 7.1), has more assist (1.9 per 40 vs 1.5), and fewer turnovers (2.2 per 40 vs 2.7). Barnes slightly better in steals (1.5 per 40 vs 1.1), and fewer fouls (2.4 per 40 vs 3.0), and they are almost even in blocks (Barnes 0.5 per 40 vs Singler 0.4). Also, I used Kyle's senior season here, which is probably his worst statistically due to the shooting slump; he would fare even better in this comparison if other years were used.

In the "eye test", I would argue that Barnes is probably a slightly better leaper, vs Singler slightly stronger. I would rate Singler a much better defender, both on ball and help-side. Both had difficulties scoring off the dribble.


At the end of the day, I would much rather have Singler than Barnes on my team, but could see how someone could argue for Barnes. What I can't understand, is why one is a lottery pick and other other playing in Spain?



BTW, as an aside I really enjoyed listening to Steve Kerr do game commentary this weekend - know he primarily does NBA work, but he was really well prepared and insightful. Wish we could have more of him in college hoops.

[IBleedBlue]

I'm going to violate the rule about not comparing players of different race, but I still can't understand how Barnes is viewed as a lottery pick when Kyle Singler went in the second round?

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/com...1=kyle-singler

Comparing Kyle's senior year to Barnes soph season, stats are incredibly similar - Barnes scores more per minute (23.3 to 19.4 points per 40), partly due to a higher usage rate (26.1% to 23.5%), and partly due to getting to the line more (37.4% vs 30.4% FTA/FGA). On a points per shot basis, they are almost identical (Barnes 1.24 vs Singler 1.23). Barnes is a very slightly better 3 pt shooter (35.8% compared to Kyle's senior year of 32.1%, but not other years (Fr 34%, So 38%, Jr 40%)), while Singler is better from 2 (49.7% to 46.9%) and from the line (80.6% to 72.3%). Singler is a better rebounder (7.9 per 40 vs 7.1), has more assist (1.9 per 40 vs 1.5), and fewer turnovers (2.2 per 40 vs 2.7). Barnes slightly better in steals (1.5 per 40 vs 1.1), and fewer fouls (2.4 per 40 vs 3.0), and they are almost even in blocks (Barnes 0.5 per 40 vs Singler 0.4). Also, I used Kyle's senior season here, which is probably his worst statistically due to the shooting slump; he would fare even better in this comparison if other years were used.

In the "eye test", I would argue that Barnes is probably a slightly better leaper, vs Singler slightly stronger. I would rate Singler a much better defender, both on ball and help-side. Both had difficulties scoring off the dribble.


At the end of the day, I would much rather have Singler than Barnes on my team, but could see how someone could argue for Barnes. What I can't understand, is why one is a lottery pick and other other playing in Spain?



BTW, as an aside I really enjoyed listening to Steve Kerr do game commentary this weekend - know he primarily does NBA work, but he was really well prepared and insightful. Wish we could have more of him in college hoops.

The reason Barnes is still a lottery pick is because NBA GMs think he has lot of potential to develop and a higher ceiling to be achieved. In Singler's case, they saw all they could in his 4 years at Duke and probably felt his ceiling wasn't much higher. Even the analysts said Singler's ceiling is not much higher than what you saw in this junior and senior season but he plays at that ceiling all the time.

[CDu]

In the "eye test", I would argue that Barnes is probably a slightly better leaper, vs Singler slightly stronger. I would rate Singler a much better defender, both on ball and help-side. Both had difficulties scoring off the dribble.

At the end of the day, I would much rather have Singler than Barnes on my team, but could see how someone could argue for Barnes. What I can't understand, is why one is a lottery pick and other other playing in Spain?

It's as simple as this: Barnes has more "upside", and NBA teams tend to draft on upside. Because Barnes is a better leaper and younger, teams see potential for more versatility in his game. Singler was unquestionably tougher and seems more willing to give it his all than Barnes. But Barnes has two additional years of development to expand his game that Singler doesn't, and some team(s) will see that as reason to gamble on him earlier in the draft.

Note as well that Singler chose to go to Spain - not that he was forced to go to Spain. I have no doubt that he'd have made the Pistons roster, and probably would have played real minutes. But for whatever reason (there could be several logical reasons), he chose to play out the season in Spain.

[moonpie23]

my lottery ticket has "upside"....till tuesday anyway...

[Wander]

I'm going to violate the rule about not comparing players of different race, but I still can't understand how Barnes is viewed as a lottery pick when Kyle Singler went in the second round?

I've been thinking about the Singler-Barnes comparison for a while too. They're both versatile small forwards who sort of turned themselves too often into long range shooters on offense. And Barnes has a better and smoother jump shot than Singler... but Singler put so much more effort into his game than Barnes did, especially on defense and rebounding. Barnes should be better based on talent, but he just doesn't have the motor that Singler or Rivers or Zeller or Hansbrough have... maybe he'll get there sometime, I guess he's still young.

[CDu]

I've been thinking about the Singler-Barnes comparison for a while too. They're both versatile small forwards who sort of turned themselves too often into long range shooters on offense. And Barnes has a better and smoother jump shot than Singler... but Singler put so much more effort into his game than Barnes did, especially on defense and rebounding. Barnes should be better based on talent, but he just doesn't have the motor that Singler or Rivers or Zeller or Hansbrough have... maybe he'll get there sometime, I guess he's still young.

There's no question that Singler made use of every ounce of his abilities. There's certainly question as to whether Barnes has done the same (actually, one might say that there's no question - he simply hasn't). But that's the catch with the NBA. Singler was much closer to tapping out his potential than Barnes. Singler's lack of athleticism will make it tough for him to continue to succeed on grit, determination, effort, and ability. Barnes has room to become so much, and that will be too much to pass up.

[mkirsh]

It's as simple as this: Barnes has more "upside", and NBA teams tend to draft on upside. Because Barnes is a better leaper and younger, teams see potential for more versatility in his game. Singler was unquestionably tougher and seems more willing to give it his all than Barnes. But Barnes has two additional years of development to expand his game that Singler doesn't, and some team(s) will see that as reason to gamble on him earlier in the draft.

Note as well that Singler chose to go to Spain - not that he was forced to go to Spain. I have no doubt that he'd have made the Pistons roster, and probably would have played real minutes. But for whatever reason (there could be several logical reasons), he chose to play out the season in Spain.

Understand both points, but although Barnes improved across last season (mostly due to KM's increased role), what has he done better this year compared to the end of last season? Based on trajectory, is his ceiling really much higher than what we see now? He's not exactly raw at this point.

The worst part of this is that I know my hometown Wizards are going to draft him which will make me want to poke my eyes out. Just when I thought they couldn't get any worse...

[stixof96]

Maybe I just don't get it. Duke a number 2 seed loses to a number 15 seed, which was a major embarassment, while Carolina makes the elite 8 and loses to a number 2 seed with arguably their key player out and you say it was ," quite a good year", for Duke basketball. I would have traded seasons with Carolina in a heartbeat.

I absolutely agree. I was very impressed with the fight Carolina displayed with Marshall on the bench, they left it all on the floor. Can't ask for more than that. I think Duke lacked that this year and I was very disappointed in that.

[CDu]

Understand both points, but although Barnes improved across last season (mostly due to KM's increased role), what has he done better this year compared to the end of last season? Based on trajectory, is his ceiling really much higher than what we see now? He's not exactly raw at this point.

The worst part of this is that I know my hometown Wizards are going to draft him which will make me want to poke my eyes out. Just when I thought they couldn't get any worse...

Will he get better? Who knows? I certainly agree that he hasn't expanded his game. I'm just saying there's more room for expansion than there was with Singler. Given his leaping ability and already versatile shooting ability, there's unquestionably more room for Barnes to grow than there is/was for Singler. And that's what will convince some team to take him in the lottery.

I certainly have my doubts that Barnes will develop those other areas enough to reach or even approach that ceiling. But I wouldn't be drafting him in the lottery.

[RoyalBlue08]

I'm not sure how leaping ability on a slow SF with a poor handle goes very far in making that person a better basketball player. In my opinion, I think HB is nearly as tapped out on potential as Kyle. You could even argue that Kyle has more room to improve in his jump shot (a skill that seems you should be able to work on with practice).

[oldnavy]

I think Williams is just not good at handling adversity. He's a terrific recruiter and he runs an often effective system. But when things get tough he doesn't react well to it. And I think his players sense that and play tight when he gets tight. I also don't think he's a great in-game coach. Quotes like these only serve to strengthen my belief that this is accurate.

Don't get me wrong - he's certainly proven he can recruit and run his system at an elite level. But it just seems strange that he doesn't call timeouts when his team is getting killed (KU game a few years ago) and he doesn't recognize a junk defense that is rendering his offense immobile for 8 minutes.

Well, let's not get too carried away, Ol Roy has shown that he can recruit and run his system at two elite schools. I am not sure he would have the same results if he had to go to a school that is not a blue blood of college basketball. We will never know if he could recruit at this level if he were at Missouri or Baylor or **Fill in the non traditional power house**. BUT, he has done well with the cards he was delt and that is all you can ask of someone. He wins a ton of games with his style, but he has never shown anything that resembles an ability to manage a fluid or changing game flow.

For example, in the Ohio game, WHY would you call a play for Harrison Barnes at the end of THAT game. He had been anemic the entire game. Bullock, Zeller, Henson, or McAdoo would have been better choices, or at least call for him to get the ball in position to score, not in a position where he would have to create his shot (something he is not very good at).

It also begs the question of what the other coaches are doing over on the bench? Steve Robinson was a head coach, so he should be able to recognize a triangle & 2 defense. Surely he or whatever the other two coaches names are could have mentioned it at some point to Roy...

[78Devil]

Like everyone else, I went to bed in a much better frame of mind last night. But I woke up this morning feeling guilty.

WHY would I root against UNC so passionately when they are playing teams who are not ACC, and who for the most part don't share the academic standards Duke and UNC hold? In the old days, I used to root FOR Duke (of course still do), and against UNC -- but only until we were out if contention. Then, I would root for any ACC team -- UNC included.

That changed somehow with Ole Roy. I don't know if its because he won 2 NCs (at least one of which he pretty much inherited) or if its something about the old hang dog demeanor. It can't just be because he is at UNC, since I felt the same way about him when we used to play him in Kansas, and I never actually hated Dean Smith.

I do think, however, that I am highly influenced by my desire for no other current coach to have accomplishments approaching Coach K. 'Cause I was pretty happy when Florida lost as well. Had Roy gotten his third NC within a decade (less!), that would have been a pretty amazing feat and would have taken some of the patina off of our HOF coach's accomplishments.

Pretty selfish and immature -- but I can't help it!

[g-money]

There's no question that Singler made use of every ounce of his abilities. There's certainly question as to whether Barnes has done the same (actually, one might say that there's no question - he simply hasn't). But that's the catch with the NBA. Singler was much closer to tapping out his potential than Barnes. Singler's lack of athleticism will make it tough for him to continue to succeed on grit, determination, effort, and ability. Barnes has room to become so much, and that will be too much to pass up.

In the Singler-Barnes comparison, to me the score would be Singler 1, Barnes 0. Which is about as good as it gets as a Duke fan.

Regarding Barnes, the word that comes to mind in watching him play is robotic. Watching him force moves on offense, he looks like a guy who has spent a lot more time doing drills than playing the game. To some extent this could also be a consequence of playing against weak competition through high school (no offense to Iowans, but Ames does not strike me as a basketball hotbed).

I do think this problem is fixable, and I wouldn't be surprised if he overcomes it given his solid work ethic. If I were him I would forget the drills for the summer and focus solely on playing in games against good competition, preferably NBA players if he can find the run.

As for me, I was as bummed as anyone when he chose UNC, and I love to see him fail wearing Carolina blue. But I also can't help but think that there's a scared kid in there who is pretty unsure of himself right now. Tough deal.

[moonpie23]

78...to answer your question, plain and simple...it's arrogance...

duke fans always HOPE to win stuff...unc EXPECTS to win stuff...

[Kedsy]

Losing to a 15 seed does not make for a pleasant season.

Losing one game does not make for any kind of season. It was one game. If you look at it from beginning to end we had a pretty good season with a disappointing ending. If all you care about is the last game, why do you even bother?

[pfrduke]

duke fans always HOPE to win stuff...unc EXPECTS to win stuff...

Reading the majority of the posts around here, one could not draw this distinction.