In the end, many, many threads reduce to Jderf's Law:
For example, this thread on Alex Oriakhi becomes, per Jderf's Law, a discussion about the only thing that really counts.
As to the substance of CDu's point, I'll add a friendly amendment. On paper, at least, Duke has substantially more experience, talent, and depth at the "bigs" in 2012-'13. Mason, Ryan, Josh have the experience. For Heels, only McAdoo. Depth: Mason, Ryan, Josh, Alex [some 4], Marshall v. McAdoo, Hubert, Johnson, James. Talent: McAdoo's good [I think he's soon to be a star], but Mason and Ryan are also talented, capable of occasional star-games, especially as seniors. And while I'm willing to believe that either James or Johnson might be a fine addition for the Heels, and Hubert might come on at least as a shot blocker, I [and plenty of you] think our 2 R-Fr guys will more than hold their own if and when matched with the Heels' inexperienced bigs.
McAdoo is unquestionably the better athlete and pro prospect. But Kelly is a senior who has much more experience and has proven he can score in the halfcourt. McAdoo has proven he can finish on the break and get putbacks. But his next successful post move in college may actually be his first.
In 2-3 years, I have no doubt that McAdoo will be better than Kelly. But I don't think it is ridiculous to think Kelly will be better next year.
Didn't say it was ridiculous. Said it was optimistic.
Let me put it this way. I can see McAdoo making 1st-team All-ACC next season a lot easier than I can see Ryan Kelly making 1st-team All-ACC. Given the make-up of the 2013 UNC lineup, McAdoo could be the go-to guy, getting lots of touches and shots. He was a likely lottery pick in the 2012 draft and he made what I think was a rational decision to come back and enhance that into top-5 status.
I'm not trying to trash Kelly here. I can easily see him giving Duke 15 and 7 next season and making 3rd--maybe 2nd-team All-ACC. But I really expect McAdoo to be a load next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the ACC POY mix.
By virtue of the way UNC plays and by virtue of McAdoo being the only big guy with any meaningful experience, I'd expect him to get every opportunity to outproduce Kelly (who'll have a much more crowded scoring picture around him). However, don't confuse production with skill. McAdoo may put up better numbers than Kelly (I'd also not be surprised if he doesn't even despite the opportunity) but that doesn't necessarily mean he's the more skilled player next year. Production is a combination of ability and opportunity, and McAdoo will have the big edge in opportunity.
I'll be surprised if he's in the PoY mix next year. I'd say that Leslie, Brown, Plumlee, Johnson, Snaer, Green, and Stoglin (only if he buys into the team next year) are much more likely candidates. I would put the realistic ceiling for McAdoo next year at closer to sophomore year Ed Davis (13 pts, 8 rebs). I think he's just too raw offensively. Anything more than those averages and he's either greatly exceeding my expectations or the team is just forcefeeding him chances to the detriment of the team.
Thank you Alex Oriakhi for heading to Mizzou!!!
And does anyone else think Frank Haith has something going down there in Columbia? I think with this announcement, they could contend with Kentucky for the SEC crown next year. They are pretty stacked. Oriakhi will be eligible immediately, so will Jabari Brown who transferred from Oregon. He was a top 5 SG prospect last year. They'll also have Earnest Ross, the transfer from Auburn who was tearing it up before he left there. To go with them, they'll have back Phil Pressey, Michael Dixon, and Laurence Bowers. Nice little nucleus there. They also have a few Juco products coming in and are still in the running for Devonta Pollard. They could be REAL good.
IMO Huck was only in this process to try and keep him away from us. It is my understanding that he was the only 1 of 4 finalists that did not personally meet with AO. Once Mason announced and AO removed us as an option, Huck was content. Maybe I'm just an arrogant DUKE fan but it appears at times Huck would rather try and keep kids away from us than have them enrolled. Almost like he's playing not to lose rather than planning to win. He (and the brand) still is a recruiting machine but this 1 is odd.
a. Missouri has to replace over 45 ppg from Ratliffe/Denmon/English. I would be astonished if Oriakhi, Brown, and Ross are able to come close to that. While Oriakhi is a nice player, I am a bit surprised so many people are freaking out over him and his 6.8 pts and 4.8 boards. (Ratliffe basically doubled that.) All of that is needed just to replace/match their best team ever, who face-planted spectacularly in the tournament.
b. Denmon was their heart-and-soul, Ratliffe hardly ever missed shots, but losing English is the real killer. He created so many mismatches with his length and shooting ability. KU could not play Robinson and Withey on the court at the same time because of him.
c. One of the crazy subplots for them this year was losing Bowers. He was their 2nd leading scorer in '11. With him, they were a much more traditional team with two big guys and 3 guards, and they were very average. He's more of a plodder with a decent jumper. Without him, they were able to run all over the place, their offense was basically "4 out, 1 in" and let Pressey penetrate. It will be interesting to see how they play next year.
Of course, they will finish 2nd in the SEC, but that will be more by default than anything else.