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  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I would think that Josh Hairston has earned a spot at the grown-up table.
    Amen. And which spot is an interesting issue.

    Depending on exactly who our bigs are next season, Josh will play some 4 and quite possibly 5. For example, the "worst case but plausible" scenario is that our bigs consist only of Ryan, Josh, Marshall, and Alex Murphy. In that case, Josh would play substantial minutes. Further, when he's on the floor with Murphy, Josh is the 5. When he's on the floor with Marshall, Josh is the 4. When Josh and Kelly are on together, they flip-flop regularly, depending on matchups.

    Unless Mason stays or TP or AO arrives, it sure seems clear that our inside rotation will require 3 of the 4 guys to play somewhat-sometimes out of position.

    K needs some challenges; this scenario presents several.

  2. #82
    I don't think Oriakhi's coming, I think Mason's going, and I do think Parker has a very good chance to start if he comes to Duke by virtue of a thin frontcourt. And not for nothing, Krzyzewski has made no secret of how much he wants Parker to come to Duke. I mean, every time I look up, he keeps flying out to see him. I would imagine what he's telling him is that the lane is wide open for him, so to speak, assuming he shows up and works hard.

  3. #83
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    So if Kelly plays the 4 for 30 minutes a game, which is a slight increase over this season, then Josh will play 10 minutes at the 4 while Marshall and some combination of Tony Parker/Alex Oriakhi/Mason Plumlee split the minutes at 5. Is that what you imagine?

    Under that scenario, we will split 40 minutes between Alex Murphy, Andre Dawkins and Michael Gbinije at the 3. Do you think those three will be happy?

    The 3 is most definitely affected by our depth at the 4 and 5, which is the point I was making. You claim otherwise, but do not provide any explanation to back up that assertion.
    I'll leave the minute-bation to you, Dave. I think it's utterly pointless at this point until who know who leaves and who arrives.
    But I do know that your original notion of Kelly playing 30 minutes in the post and Jason Parker at PF playing 20 minutes is just plain nonsensical.
    And I don't think you can find three rational people who agree with you on this point.

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I'll leave the minute-bation to you, Dave. I think it's utterly pointless at this point until who know who leaves and who arrives.
    But I do know that your original notion of Kelly playing 30 minutes in the post and Jason Parker at PF playing 20 minutes is just plain nonsensical.
    And I don't think you can find three rational people who agree with you on this point.
    Jason Parker? Have we gone back in time?

    I would be intrigued by a lineup with Kelly at the C and Murphy/Hairston at the PF. But I'd also be intrigued by a lineup with Kelly at PF and Murphy/Gbinije/Dawkins at SF. Of course, that's not really the suggestion that was being debated.

    I agree with you that if Parker arrives, he will not be playing PF. I agree with superdave that SG and SF (or the wing spots) is the position at which we're likely to be the most crowded next year.

  5. #85
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I'll leave the minute-bation to you, Dave. I think it's utterly pointless at this point until who know who leaves and who arrives.
    But I do know that your original notion of Kelly playing 30 minutes in the post and Jason Parker at PF playing 20 minutes is just plain nonsensical.
    And I don't think you can find three rational people who agree with you on this point.
    My point is sensiscal. Saying it's not does not make it so.

    There's a very good chance Ryan Kelly will be our starting center next year. That scenario is likely if Mason goes pro and we get neither Parker nor Oriakhi. I'd argue that having Ryan, but none of Mason/Oriakhi/Parker has a 50% probability of occuring. What do you think the probability is of that?

    If that scenario plays out, the only way Ryan avoids playing center is if Marshall, Josh Hairston and Alex Murphy play center. I think Marshall plays 10+ minutes per game at center. I think Alex splits time at the 3/4 and Josh plays some minutes at the 4, with neither playing the 5. Therefore, Ryan would have to play the minutes at the 5 that Marshall does not.

    I actually think Ryan at the 5 is a good thing for Duke because it creates all kinds of matchup problems for other teams when Duke is on offense, and Ryan can more than hold his own defensively. He does need to improve his rebounding.

    Are there any rational people out there who can see 6'11' Ryan Kelly playing the 5 next year?

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    My point is sensiscal. Saying it's not does not make it so.

    There's a very good chance Ryan Kelly will be our starting center next year. That scenario is likely if Mason goes pro and we get neither Parker nor Oriakhi. I'd argue that having Ryan, but none of Mason/Oriakhi/Parker has a 50% probability of occuring. What do you think the probability is of that?

    If that scenario plays out, the only way Ryan avoids playing center is if Marshall, Josh Hairston and Alex Murphy play center. I think Marshall plays 10+ minutes per game at center. I think Alex splits time at the 3/4 and Josh plays some minutes at the 4, with neither playing the 5. Therefore, Ryan would have to play the minutes at the 5 that Marshall does not.

    I actually think Ryan at the 5 is a good thing for Duke because it creates all kinds of matchup problems for other teams when Duke is on offense, and Ryan can more than hold his own defensively. He does need to improve his rebounding.

    Are there any rational people out there who can see 6'11' Ryan Kelly playing the 5 next year?
    I think the skepticism was about the scenario in which Parker (1) commits to Duke, and (2) is ready to play at least 20 minutes per game. In that case it's hard to see Kelly starting at center.

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    My point is sensiscal. Saying it's not does not make it so.

    There's a very good chance Ryan Kelly will be our starting center next year. That scenario is likely if Mason goes pro and we get neither Parker nor Oriakhi. I'd argue that having Ryan, but none of Mason/Oriakhi/Parker has a 50% probability of occuring. What do you think the probability is of that?

    If that scenario plays out, the only way Ryan avoids playing center is if Marshall, Josh Hairston and Alex Murphy play center. I think Marshall plays 10+ minutes per game at center. I think Alex splits time at the 3/4 and Josh plays some minutes at the 4, with neither playing the 5. Therefore, Ryan would have to play the minutes at the 5 that Marshall does not.

    I actually think Ryan at the 5 is a good thing for Duke because it creates all kinds of matchup problems for other teams when Duke is on offense, and Ryan can more than hold his own defensively. He does need to improve his rebounding.

    Are there any rational people out there who can see 6'11' Ryan Kelly playing the 5 next year?
    I completely agree with you on this. However, I'll say that I completely disagreed with you when you had Kelly at the C and Parker at the PF. That's just not going to happen. Parker will play whatever minutes he plays at C. It would seem that a lot of the back and forth from your post is related to that disagreement.

    I think we'll have no more than one of Mason, Oriakhi, and Parker. If (and perhaps only if) we have none of them, then Kelly very likely starts at C with either Hairston or Murphy playing PF. I'd expect those two to be ahead of Marshall in terms of development, and I'd expect Marshall to play backup C.

  8. #88
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    My point is sensiscal. Saying it's not does not make it so.

    There's a very good chance Ryan Kelly will be our starting center next year. That scenario is likely if Mason goes pro and we get neither Parker nor Oriakhi. I'd argue that having Ryan, but none of Mason/Oriakhi/Parker has a 50% probability of occuring. What do you think the probability is of that?

    If that scenario plays out, the only way Ryan avoids playing center is if Marshall, Josh Hairston and Alex Murphy play center. I think Marshall plays 10+ minutes per game at center. I think Alex splits time at the 3/4 and Josh plays some minutes at the 4, with neither playing the 5. Therefore, Ryan would have to play the minutes at the 5 that Marshall does not.

    I actually think Ryan at the 5 is a good thing for Duke because it creates all kinds of matchup problems for other teams when Duke is on offense, and Ryan can more than hold his own defensively. He does need to improve his rebounding.

    Are there any rational people out there who can see 6'11' Ryan Kelly playing the 5 next year?
    I wouldn't have pegged Ryan Kelly at the 5 but you make a good point. Duke has had a few seasons without a true 5. My biggest concern is how Ryan would guard a bigger stronger big man on the defensive end. He does create an offensive mismatch but defensively is where I see the biggest concerns wtih him playing center.

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by mkline09 View Post
    I wouldn't have pegged Ryan Kelly at the 5 but you make a good point. Duke has had a few seasons without a true 5. My biggest concern is how Ryan would guard a bigger stronger big man on the defensive end. He does create an offensive mismatch but defensively is where I see the biggest concerns wtih him playing center.
    I've said it before, but I think he'd actually match up better against a C than against the typical college PF. Looking around at the other PF in the ACC next year, I see Kelly as being significantly less quick/explosive than them. At C, with another year of strength training and work in the post, I think Kelly can hold his own against all but the strongest of C. But I don't see him getting quick enough to stay in front of the Okaro Whites, James McAdoos, Dorian Finney-Smiths, CJ Leslies, and Ryan Andersons of the world.

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I completely agree with you on this. However, I'll say that I completely disagreed with you when you had Kelly at the C and Parker at the PF. That's just not going to happen. Parker will play whatever minutes he plays at C. It would seem that a lot of the back and forth from your post is related to that disagreement.

    I think we'll have no more than one of Mason, Oriakhi, and Parker. If (and perhaps only if) we have none of them, then Kelly very likely starts at C with either Hairston or Murphy playing PF. I'd expect those two to be ahead of Marshall in terms of development, and I'd expect Marshall to play backup C.
    I don't think Superdave ever said that Parker would play the 4 next to Kelly at the 5. He said:

    Originally Posted by superdave
    So if Kelly plays the 4 for 30 minutes a game, which is a slight increase over this season, then Josh will play 10 minutes at the 4 while Marshall and some combination of Tony Parker/Alex Oriakhi/Mason Plumlee split the minutes at 5. Is that what you imagine?

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by niveklaen View Post
    I don't think Superdave ever said that Parker would play the 4 next to Kelly at the 5. He said:

    Originally Posted by superdave
    So if Kelly plays the 4 for 30 minutes a game, which is a slight increase over this season, then Josh will play 10 minutes at the 4 while Marshall and some combination of Tony Parker/Alex Oriakhi/Mason Plumlee split the minutes at 5. Is that what you imagine?
    That is a follow-up post, not the one in question. Read back a few more posts and you'll see the one I'm referencing.

  12. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    So if Kelly plays the 4 for 30 minutes a game, which is a slight increase over this season, then Josh will play 10 minutes at the 4 while Marshall and some combination of Tony Parker/Alex Oriakhi/Mason Plumlee split the minutes at 5. Is that what you imagine?

    Under that scenario, we will split 40 minutes between Alex Murphy, Andre Dawkins and Michael Gbinije at the 3. Do you think those three will be happy?
    I don't see a problem with Murphy, Dawkins, and Gbinijie splitting the 40 minutes at the 3 especially if Dawkins can also get time at the 2 when Curry takes a breather.

    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    I actually think Ryan at the 5 is a good thing for Duke because it creates all kinds of matchup problems for other teams when Duke is on offense, and Ryan can more than hold his own defensively. He does need to improve his rebounding.

    Are there any rational people out there who can see 6'11' Ryan Kelly playing the 5 next year?
    I can see it, mostly if Mason leaves. Even this year Kelly played some at the 5 in certain situations. Ideally though, he is a more natural 4 and we will have a better rebounder at the 5.

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by nocilla View Post
    I don't see a problem with Murphy, Dawkins, and Gbinijie splitting the 40 minutes at the 3 especially if Dawkins can also get time at the 2 when Curry takes a breather.
    And in that scenario, you're squeezing Sulaimon who looks like he may warrant at least solid backup minutes (if not a starting spot altogether).

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by mkline09 View Post
    I wouldn't have pegged Ryan Kelly at the 5 but you make a good point. Duke has had a few seasons without a true 5. My biggest concern is how Ryan would guard a bigger stronger big man on the defensive end. He does create an offensive mismatch but defensively is where I see the biggest concerns wtih him playing center.
    We just wont face those guys next year very often. Zeller is graduating. Reggie Johnson will be a senior. Alex Len kinda stinks. So I dont think it's a big deal.

    As for saying Tony Parker at the 4 and Kelly at the 5, fine. Parker would play the 5 if he comes. But even if he does come, is it likely he and Marshall combine for 40 minutes at the 5? I say no. Shelden only played 19 minutes per game his freshman year and he's a way bigger recruit than Parker. So I think Kelly would still play some 5, considering Coach K plays his best 5 a lot of minutes.

    I think you'll see some Kelly, Murphy, Andre, Sulaimon, Seth lineups next year regardless of who comes and who goes. I'd really love to see us go small and run on some teams next year. We have the speed and depth to run and press and I'd like to see it early and often.

  15. #95
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    Feb 2007
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    Washington DC
    Alright. Alright. Back to the original point of this thread. Alex Oriakhi.

    He basically has to wait for the NBA declarations and the high school recruits to make up their mind before he jumps, right? He's circling, waiting for the right opening.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    I'd argue that having Ryan, but none of Mason/Oriakhi/Parker has a 50% probability of occuring. What do you think the probability is of that?

    If that scenario plays out.... Ryan would have to play the minutes at the 5 that Marshall does not.

    Are there any rational people out there who can see 6'11' Ryan Kelly playing the 5 next year?
    I am not rational where Duke hoops are concerned. That said, my post above [#81] considers your "50% probability scenario" and mostly agrees with you, with one exception.

    I have no problem seeing Ryan play some 5 next year, absent Mason, etc. But I don't quite agree that all the non-Marshall minutes at the 5 will be Ryan's. I'll guess that when Ryan and Josh are on the floor together, they'll be flip-flopping 4s and 5s, depending on matchups. Sometimes on O, Ryan would be inside, for he does in fact have some interior moves, as we very occasionally saw this season. And he would be the logical defender against some, but not all, opposing 5s. Sometimes Ryan would instead guard the opposing 4, and sometimes on O, he'd be back out on the wing, shooting the 3 and/or passing into Josh for an inside move or short turnaround jumper, which Josh actually likes.

  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    And in that scenario, you're squeezing Sulaimon who looks like he may warrant at least solid backup minutes (if not a starting spot altogether).
    Well someone will get squeezed even if we don't add anyone else to the mix. Sulaimon as a freshman is as good a bet as anyone else. It may be Dawkins, Cook, Gbinijie, Murphy, Marshall, or some combination. We are only losing 2 maybe 3 players and we already have 3 joining. Gbinijie and Hairston (until Kelly was hurt) were squeezed out this year so we can expect 2 or 3 to be squeezed out in the coming year, more if anyone else gets on board.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Alright. Alright. Back to the original point of this thread. Alex Oriakhi.

    He basically has to wait for the NBA declarations and the high school recruits to make up their mind before he jumps, right? He's circling, waiting for the right opening.
    That would be my guess as well. Unless he's planning to go to a place that has a pretty clear picture in their frontcourt (like Missouri). If he's thinking about UK, Kansas, UNC, Duke, or many others, he's going to likely have to wait a month or so.

  19. #99
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    Washington, DC

    1986-1992

    Those of you saying that Kelly couldn't play center for Duke must be forgetting the late '80s and early '90s when Duke patrolled the paint exclusively with 6'11 face-up shooters named Ferry and Laettner. Obviously those guys had more talent and (a few) more post moves than we've seen Kelly execute, and Kelly has a lot more shooting range. But sylistically, it's the same idea and not too crazy.

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by nocilla View Post
    Well someone will get squeezed even if we don't add anyone else to the mix.... We can expect 2 or 3 to be squeezed out in the coming year, more if anyone else gets on board.
    I'd only dissent to the extent that - if Mason leaves and no one else comes - the "squeezing" will be minimal and come only in the second half of the season. In the 10-man-roster-scenario, I'll guess that K might have a legitimate 9-man rotation all season long, with the 10th guy still playing a few minutes late-season most games. Marshall might be the most likely 10th guy, but if we have but 10 players, and but 3 other bigs, none of whom is a traditional 5, Marshall would not likely slide all the way to DNP.

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