Depending on exactly who our bigs are next season, Josh will play some 4 and quite possibly 5. For example, the "worst case but plausible" scenario is that our bigs consist only of Ryan, Josh, Marshall, and Alex Murphy. In that case, Josh would play substantial minutes. Further, when he's on the floor with Murphy, Josh is the 5. When he's on the floor with Marshall, Josh is the 4. When Josh and Kelly are on together, they flip-flop regularly, depending on matchups.
Unless Mason stays or TP or AO arrives, it sure seems clear that our inside rotation will require 3 of the 4 guys to play somewhat-sometimes out of position.
K needs some challenges; this scenario presents several.
I don't think Oriakhi's coming, I think Mason's going, and I do think Parker has a very good chance to start if he comes to Duke by virtue of a thin frontcourt. And not for nothing, Krzyzewski has made no secret of how much he wants Parker to come to Duke. I mean, every time I look up, he keeps flying out to see him. I would imagine what he's telling him is that the lane is wide open for him, so to speak, assuming he shows up and works hard.
But I do know that your original notion of Kelly playing 30 minutes in the post and Jason Parker at PF playing 20 minutes is just plain nonsensical.
And I don't think you can find three rational people who agree with you on this point.
I would be intrigued by a lineup with Kelly at the C and Murphy/Hairston at the PF. But I'd also be intrigued by a lineup with Kelly at PF and Murphy/Gbinije/Dawkins at SF. Of course, that's not really the suggestion that was being debated.
I agree with you that if Parker arrives, he will not be playing PF. I agree with superdave that SG and SF (or the wing spots) is the position at which we're likely to be the most crowded next year.
There's a very good chance Ryan Kelly will be our starting center next year. That scenario is likely if Mason goes pro and we get neither Parker nor Oriakhi. I'd argue that having Ryan, but none of Mason/Oriakhi/Parker has a 50% probability of occuring. What do you think the probability is of that?
If that scenario plays out, the only way Ryan avoids playing center is if Marshall, Josh Hairston and Alex Murphy play center. I think Marshall plays 10+ minutes per game at center. I think Alex splits time at the 3/4 and Josh plays some minutes at the 4, with neither playing the 5. Therefore, Ryan would have to play the minutes at the 5 that Marshall does not.
I actually think Ryan at the 5 is a good thing for Duke because it creates all kinds of matchup problems for other teams when Duke is on offense, and Ryan can more than hold his own defensively. He does need to improve his rebounding.
Are there any rational people out there who can see 6'11' Ryan Kelly playing the 5 next year?
I think we'll have no more than one of Mason, Oriakhi, and Parker. If (and perhaps only if) we have none of them, then Kelly very likely starts at C with either Hairston or Murphy playing PF. I'd expect those two to be ahead of Marshall in terms of development, and I'd expect Marshall to play backup C.
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Originally Posted by superdave
So if Kelly plays the 4 for 30 minutes a game, which is a slight increase over this season, then Josh will play 10 minutes at the 4 while Marshall and some combination of Tony Parker/Alex Oriakhi/Mason Plumlee split the minutes at 5. Is that what you imagine?
As for saying Tony Parker at the 4 and Kelly at the 5, fine. Parker would play the 5 if he comes. But even if he does come, is it likely he and Marshall combine for 40 minutes at the 5? I say no. Shelden only played 19 minutes per game his freshman year and he's a way bigger recruit than Parker. So I think Kelly would still play some 5, considering Coach K plays his best 5 a lot of minutes.
I think you'll see some Kelly, Murphy, Andre, Sulaimon, Seth lineups next year regardless of who comes and who goes. I'd really love to see us go small and run on some teams next year. We have the speed and depth to run and press and I'd like to see it early and often.
I have no problem seeing Ryan play some 5 next year, absent Mason, etc. But I don't quite agree that all the non-Marshall minutes at the 5 will be Ryan's. I'll guess that when Ryan and Josh are on the floor together, they'll be flip-flopping 4s and 5s, depending on matchups. Sometimes on O, Ryan would be inside, for he does in fact have some interior moves, as we very occasionally saw this season. And he would be the logical defender against some, but not all, opposing 5s. Sometimes Ryan would instead guard the opposing 4, and sometimes on O, he'd be back out on the wing, shooting the 3 and/or passing into Josh for an inside move or short turnaround jumper, which Josh actually likes.
Those of you saying that Kelly couldn't play center for Duke must be forgetting the late '80s and early '90s when Duke patrolled the paint exclusively with 6'11 face-up shooters named Ferry and Laettner. Obviously those guys had more talent and (a few) more post moves than we've seen Kelly execute, and Kelly has a lot more shooting range. But sylistically, it's the same idea and not too crazy.