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  1. #241
    Quote Originally Posted by verga View Post
    for McAdoo next year (if he does return) is Marshall, it's easy to score under the basket when your pg is drilling pin point passes to you. With Paige he's (McAdoo) not going to get those perfect passes the team was getting this year. Paige will be a decent pg until Britt arrives, i'm not sure Roy can play both together so one will have to sit but that's carolina's problem and that won't be until 2013/14.
    UNC will be fine. Despite what his fanbase thinks- Roy can coach. He will have a young team but one with enough talent to win consistently. The margin for error will be slimmer. McAdoo is very good. He will score a lot of points next year as he will be the best inside threat. Those who think UNC will struggle may be disappointed. They have plenty of weapons and their guys will get better.

  2. #242
    Join Date
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    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    So does this mean Barnes wasn't a carrier pigeon?
    Some additional info on the pigeon/falcon:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Falcon

    My favorite parts:

    "The Black Falcon (Falco subniger) is a medium-large falcon that lives only in Australia, attempts to establish the species in Chapel Hill, NC proved disappointing and were abandoned."

    and:

    "The Black Falcon's prey is mainly birds, such as quail, various parrot species, finches, magpies, crows, starlings etc, but it has a particular taste for Jayhawks."

    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  3. #243
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    Portland, OR
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Some additional info on the pigeon/falcon:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Falcon

    My favorite parts:

    "The Black Falcon (Falco subniger) is a medium-large falcon that lives only in Australia, attempts to establish the species in Chapel Hill, NC proved disappointing and were abandoned."

    and:

    "The Black Falcon's prey is mainly birds, such as quail, various parrot species, finches, magpies, crows, starlings etc, but it has a particular taste for Jayhawks."

    I like how the "modifications" to the Wiki page were foreseen by some poor bird lover on the Talk page.

    We should consider semi-protection for this page, as the NCAA College Basketball season is starting up, and the #1 player on the #1 team in the country has the nickname "Black Falcon". This page is going to be continuously vandalized. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Johnandrus (talk • contribs) 07:38, 12 November 2011 (UTC)

  4. #244
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Some additional info on the pigeon/falcon:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Falcon

    My favorite parts:

    "The Black Falcon (Falco subniger) is a medium-large falcon that lives only in Australia, attempts to establish the species in Chapel Hill, NC proved disappointing and were abandoned."

    and:

    "The Black Falcon's prey is mainly birds, such as quail, various parrot species, finches, magpies, crows, starlings etc, but it has a particular taste for Jayhawks."

    According to the history, it was somebody on Duke's campus that reverted that update! What's wrong with them?! haha. Somebody in Charlotte had written that apparently.

  5. #245
    Terrance Ross will enter Draft. Huge blow to Washington for next year. I wonder how that will effect Oriakhi's decision?

    Link:http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspor...the-nba-draft/

  6. #246
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    Washington DC
    http://espn.go.com/blog/north-caroli...g-nba-decision

    McAdoo still considering the draft. His dad says a decision is likely by this weekend. Go fulfill your dreams, young man. Go.

  7. #247
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, VA
    When we focus on the early-entry question we often times think what is "broken" about the system is the kids making "perceived" improper decisions related to the value of academics versus being paid for what is a dream.

    The article about McAdoo's decision points out where I believe the problem actually lies. I will paraphrase rather than quote the article...

    ...based on several performances late in the year McAdoo is now projected to be in the top 7 in the draft, even though his performance throughout his one year in college are unimpressive...

    In the past folks have argued that if a bright student were offered millions of dollars to quit school early and join the corporate world they should (and if we were the bright student we would). However, the implication about McAdoo is more akin to being a C student and then acing one exam and being offered millions of dollars. As the C student with one great exam grade I would definitely take the money and run.

    The decision making process that seems to be screwed up is the NBA team that is willing to pay someone millions of dollars for one or two good performances. Which leads me to the "one and done" rule. This I believe is set up to protect the NBA GMs that can't make good decisions rather than anything to do with protecting the high school player who is not good enough to play in the NBA.

  8. #248
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    When we focus on the early-entry question we often times think what is "broken" about the system is the kids making "perceived" improper decisions related to the value of academics versus being paid for what is a dream.

    The article about McAdoo's decision points out where I believe the problem actually lies. I will paraphrase rather than quote the article...

    ...based on several performances late in the year McAdoo is now projected to be in the top 7 in the draft, even though his performance throughout his one year in college are unimpressive...

    In the past folks have argued that if a bright student were offered millions of dollars to quit school early and join the corporate world they should (and if we were the bright student we would). However, the implication about McAdoo is more akin to being a C student and then acing one exam and being offered millions of dollars. As the C student with one great exam grade I would definitely take the money and run.

    The decision making process that seems to be screwed up is the NBA team that is willing to pay someone millions of dollars for one or two good performances. Which leads me to the "one and done" rule. This I believe is set up to protect the NBA GMs that can't make good decisions rather than anything to do with protecting the high school player who is not good enough to play in the NBA.

    The suggestion that McAdoo is a "C student" is grossly unfair. It's not clear to me where the idea that his "performance throughout his one year in college [was] unimpressive" comes from. He was a freshman behind established upperclass stars Zeller and Henson, both of whom were in strong consideration for ACC 1st team/POY honors. McAdoo showed very well in his limited minutes during the course of the season, and showed even better once Henson was injured.

    But, no doubt you are correct about the motive of the NBA's one and done rule -- of course, it's to help the NBA GMs by letting them see a truer reflection of a player's actual skills in a season of real competition rather than blindly "projecting" based solely on high school performance.

  9. #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    The suggestion that McAdoo is a "C student" is grossly unfair. It's not clear to me where the idea that his "performance throughout his one year in college [was] unimpressive" comes from. He was a freshman behind established upperclass stars Zeller and Henson, both of whom were in strong consideration for ACC 1st team/POY honors. McAdoo showed very well in his limited minutes during the course of the season, and showed even better once Henson was injured.

    But, no doubt you are correct about the motive of the NBA's one and done rule -- of course, it's to help the NBA GMs by letting them see a truer reflection of a player's actual skills in a season of real competition rather than blindly "projecting" based solely on high school performance.
    So if you were grading McAdoo on his freshman year... what grade would you give him?

    And you can't say "incomplete" because he played. Incomplete would be red shirted...

    I think a C grade is entirely fair because he's not proven nor disproven his potential... he could still be an A or an F down the road, so right in the middle is fair.

  10. #250
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    The suggestion that McAdoo is a "C student" is grossly unfair. It's not clear to me where the idea that his "performance throughout his one year in college [was] unimpressive" comes from. He was a freshman behind established upperclass stars Zeller and Henson, both of whom were in strong consideration for ACC 1st team/POY honors. McAdoo showed very well in his limited minutes during the course of the season, and showed even better once Henson was injured.

    But, no doubt you are correct about the motive of the NBA's one and done rule -- of course, it's to help the NBA GMs by letting them see a truer reflection of a player's actual skills in a season of real competition rather than blindly "projecting" based solely on high school performance.
    I think the bolded part is very much up for interpretation. I thought he looked decidedly mediocre in his limited minutes during the course of the season. And the fact that he played so few minutes per game (when Williams has long preferred to play a much deeper bench) suggests that my thoughts on this aren't too far off base. He played okay in an expanded role after Henson's injury: outclassed by CJ Leslie in his first game, active defensively but inept offensively in a loss to FSU, active defensively and decent but not great offensively against a completely overmatched Vermont team, just okay against Creighton, a non-factor against Ohio, and solid (though the recipient of several transition buckets) against Kansas.

    That's not to say he won't be very good next year if he returns. There's absolutely potential with McAdoo, and guys tend to make big jumps from freshman to sophomore year. But to say he played really well during the season is a bit of a rosy view of what he actually did in my opinion.

  11. #251
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    Richmond, VA
    The debate about McAdoo in this thread is exactly why I think the NBA put in the one and done rule. At least now you can look at McAdoo or any other player with potential in the context of other players who will play in the NBA someday. Judging someone's talent versus other high school players who may not even play in college gives even less information to NBA GM's. This makes me think the one and done rule is here to stay or at the least would be a two and done rule. (Perhaps this discussion should be in the other thread?)

    One other point just to answer Nugget's issue about grading McAdoo.

    Player x had the following averages "6.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 15.6 minutes this season". Where should he be drafted?
    Last edited by MarkD83; 04-02-2012 at 03:16 PM.

  12. #252
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    i've stated before that the one and done rule is an effort to self-manage the hype game that GM's are so susceptible to....this helps to keep them from making another kwame brown mistake....
    "One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese

  13. #253
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    Deeetroit City
    Come on, put it in its proper perspective. If you insist on the school analogy, the NBA is looking for guys that are "genius" level. Straight A students typically get cut or linger on the bench. MacAdoo is more like the genius programmer that can develop an elegant app for any problem, but can't pay attention in classes. He has demonstrated the talent that make him worth the risk of a lottery pick. There is a need for mobile big men who can score and rebound.

    As for meager stats - the dude played behind Zeller and Henson. Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers should have been cut because of their stats while watching Montana and Favre?

    Yes, he's a risk, but NBA teams are willing to risk a top-10 rookie contract to get a guy who could be an all-star earning $15-20 mil / year. Are there 7 players who are more likely to be all-star big men?

  14. #254
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    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Billy Ball, Part 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    i've stated before that the one and done rule is an effort to self-manage the hype game that GM's are so susceptible to....this helps to keep them from making another kwame brown mistake....
    Isn't the approach of Billy Beane to rely disproportionately on stats generated by college baseball players and ignore HS players altogether? In college, you are at least controlling somewhat for the level of competition. IIRC (and there is always a first time) he was especially fond of on-base percentage.

    sagegrouse

  15. #255
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    raleigh
    who do you think is the better NBA prospect? cj leslie? or HWNSNBM?
    "One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese

  16. #256
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Isn't the approach of Billy Beane to rely disproportionately on stats generated by college baseball players and ignore HS players altogether? In college, you are at least controlling somewhat for the level of competition. IIRC (and there is always a first time) he was especially fond of on-base percentage.

    sagegrouse
    Not exactly. He has an aversion to high school pitchers, and college stats (for obvious reasons) are more telling than high school stats, but he does not ignore high school players altogether.
    "I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K

  17. #257

    McAdoo draft rank disparity

    Sorry if this has been covered earlier:
    Why is J McAdoo's draft ranking so wildly different depending on the mock draft? I've seen #7, #10, #16, and NOT EVEN RANKED in the two rounds! What's up with that? Is it because he has not officially put his name in (like MaPlumlee, who is included in every mock draft)?

  18. #258
    Quote Originally Posted by TwoaT View Post
    Sorry if this has been covered earlier:
    Why is J McAdoo's draft ranking so wildly different depending on the mock draft? I've seen #7, #10, #16, and NOT EVEN RANKED in the two rounds! What's up with that? Is it because he has not officially put his name in (like MaPlumlee, who is included in every mock draft)?
    Some mock drafts only include players they believe will be coming out. Thus, if they expect McAdoo to return, they won't include him at all in either round. In reality, if he comes out, there's no way he won't get drafted. DraftExpress, for example, has him as the 16th best prospect, but don't have him in either rounds of their 2012 Mock Draft (they have him going 3rd in the 2013 draft). They have Mason as the 30th best prospect but going 26th in the draft because a few players above him they believe will be staying in college.

  19. #259
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Isn't the approach of Billy Beane to rely disproportionately on stats generated by college baseball players and ignore HS players altogether? In college, you are at least controlling somewhat for the level of competition. IIRC (and there is always a first time) he was especially fond of on-base percentage.

    sagegrouse
    Not really. Beane was tasked with taking an incredibly small budget and finding ways to compete with that ridiculously small budget. So he had to find ways to do things better than his counterparts. In other words, he knew he couldn't win by doing things the same way everyone else did, so he had to find areas where other teams were doing things wrong (i.e., finding the market inefficiencies) and exploit them.

    One of the biggest places in which he felt he could gain an edge was in the draft. By virtue of the salary structure of baseball, prospects are generally underpaid (relatively speaking) while veterans are generally overpaid. So it made the most sense to try to have a high "hit rate" in the draft (so that they didn't have to overspend in free agency). A draft pick means more to the A's than it does to the Yankees. As such, Beane wanted to minimize the risk of missing on a player. And high school pitchers (because of the lack of development of off-speed pitches and the wild discrepancies in high school hitting talent) represented the highest risk. So Beane tended to avoid taking those risks. Doing so meant that he'd likely not land a Kerry Wood, Andy Pettitte, or Josh Beckett, but he was also less likely to land a Brien Taylor or Todd Van Poppel. That didn't mean he wrote off all high school pitchers. It just meant that he wasn't going to go "all-in" for a high school pitcher. There's actually a lot more neat stuff that he did with the draft (like drafting "underslot" guys earlier than projected).

    OBP was an example of a market inefficiency that he could exploit in free agency. Specifically, he found OBP to be much more highly correlated with runs scored than AVG, and OPS was a better predictive measure of individual value than runs scored or RBI (which are team-dependent stats). Despite this, teams were generally undervaluing OBP and OPS and overvaluing AVG, R, and RBI. So Beane tried to exploit that market inefficiency.

    However, with the emergence of Moneyball and the success of the Red Sox (who used similar principles) and Yankees (who have a ridiculous payroll but have loaded up on "Moneyball" players), things like OBP and OPS are no longer market inefficiences (everybody looks at them). The new challenge for the A's is to identify new market inefficiencies. I'm guessing he's not going to agree to be the subject of another book that makes his job more difficult.

  20. #260
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    Quote Originally Posted by TwoaT View Post
    Sorry if this has been covered earlier:
    Why is J McAdoo's draft ranking so wildly different depending on the mock draft? I've seen #7, #10, #16, and NOT EVEN RANKED in the two rounds! What's up with that? Is it because he has not officially put his name in (like MaPlumlee, who is included in every mock draft)?
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Some mock drafts only include players they believe will be coming out. Thus, if they expect McAdoo to return, they won't include him at all in either round. In reality, if he comes out, there's no way he won't get drafted. DraftExpress, for example, has him as the 16th best prospect, but don't have him in either rounds of their 2012 Mock Draft (they have him going 3rd in the 2013 draft). They have Mason as the 30th best prospect but going 26th in the draft because a few players above him they believe will be staying in college.
    Austin has some similar disparity in where he is projected to go as well.

    I would not sweat the mock drafts until the list is finalized on 4/29. You may also get random Euros popping up as well.

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