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  1. #261
    Quote Originally Posted by TwoaT View Post
    Sorry if this has been covered earlier:
    Why is J McAdoo's draft ranking so wildly different depending on the mock draft? I've seen #7, #10, #16, and NOT EVEN RANKED in the two rounds! What's up with that? Is it because he has not officially put his name in (like MaPlumlee, who is included in every mock draft)?
    1. Mason Plumlee has not, to my knowledge, officially put his name in the draft (yet).
    2. I'm guessing that the person who didn't rank McAdoo did so because he/she doesn't think McAdoo will enter this year.

    I'd also point out that the discrepancy may be partly a function of differences in information available. Guys like Chad Ford are very well-connected. Some of the other sites might very well be run by some kid out of his parents' house. I'm not saying that the sites you've mentioned qualify as the latter, but I could go home tonight and put together a website and put my guess for the draft. But my guesses would be fairly uninformed. Actually, what I'd probably do in such a hypothetical would be to take the list that Chad Ford prepared and make a few minor modifications based on "potential team needs."

  2. #262

    beane and moneyball

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Not really. Beane was tasked with taking an incredibly small budget and finding ways to compete with that ridiculously small budget. So he had to find ways to do things better than his counterparts. In other words, he knew he couldn't win by doing things the same way everyone else did, so he had to find areas where other teams were doing things wrong (i.e., finding the market inefficiencies) and exploit them.

    One of the biggest places in which he felt he could gain an edge was in the draft. By virtue of the salary structure of baseball, prospects are generally underpaid (relatively speaking) while veterans are generally overpaid. So it made the most sense to try to have a high "hit rate" in the draft (so that they didn't have to overspend in free agency). A draft pick means more to the A's than it does to the Yankees. As such, Beane wanted to minimize the risk of missing on a player. And high school pitchers (because of the lack of development of off-speed pitches and the wild discrepancies in high school hitting talent) represented the highest risk. So Beane tended to avoid taking those risks. Doing so meant that he'd likely not land a Kerry Wood, Andy Pettitte, or Josh Beckett, but he was also less likely to land a Brien Taylor or Todd Van Poppel. That didn't mean he wrote off all high school pitchers. It just meant that he wasn't going to go "all-in" for a high school pitcher. There's actually a lot more neat stuff that he did with the draft (like drafting "underslot" guys earlier than projected).

    OBP was an example of a market inefficiency that he could exploit in free agency. Specifically, he found OBP to be much more highly correlated with runs scored than AVG, and OPS was a better predictive measure of individual value than runs scored or RBI (which are team-dependent stats). Despite this, teams were generally undervaluing OBP and OPS and overvaluing AVG, R, and RBI. So Beane tried to exploit that market inefficiency.

    However, with the emergence of Moneyball and the success of the Red Sox (who used similar principles) and Yankees (who have a ridiculous payroll but have loaded up on "Moneyball" players), things like OBP and OPS are no longer market inefficiences (everybody looks at them). The new challenge for the A's is to identify new market inefficiencies. I'm guessing he's not going to agree to be the subject of another book that makes his job more difficult.
    The most interesting part of Moneyball (to me) was the chapter on the draft and how Beane infuriated all the scouts with his offball approach. And you know what -- he basically blew it. They were right and he were wrong (at least for that draft). The centerpiece with the chapter was his love affair with an Ababama catcher that put up great numbers, but -- acoording to the scouts -- was a marginal prospect. Beane made the kid a first-round pick ... and (although it's not in the book) he bombed. In fact, they had like five first-round picks that year and the only one that panned out was the one that everybody else wanted -- Nick Swisher.

    I agree with the point that Beane exploited the misunderstanding of OBP and OPS (although with a few other measures) -- but it worked best when he used it to acquire undervalued veterans. His draft acumen turned out to be mediocre to poor.

  3. #263
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    The most interesting part of Moneyball (to me) was the chapter on the draft and how Beane infuriated all the scouts with his offball approach. And you know what -- he basically blew it. They were right and he were wrong (at least for that draft). The centerpiece with the chapter was his love affair with an Ababama catcher that put up great numbers, but -- acoording to the scouts -- was a marginal prospect. Beane made the kid a first-round pick ... and (although it's not in the book) he bombed. In fact, they had like five first-round picks that year and the only one that panned out was the one that everybody else wanted -- Nick Swisher.

    I agree with the point that Beane exploited the misunderstanding of OBP and OPS (although with a few other measures) -- but it worked best when he used it to acquire undervalued veterans. His draft acumen turned out to be mediocre to poor.
    True, Jeremy Brown didn't work out, but Joe Blanton and Mark Teahen were two of the other first round picks. By any reasonable measure, Blanton panned out, and Teahen played at the major league level through last season (though didn't make the Nationals this spring training and my guess is that he might not make it back at this point). Anyway, not a total waste beyond Swisher.

    And there were a lot of other draft successes later on - far better than "mediocre to poor" in my view.
    "I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K

  4. #264
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    1. Mason Plumlee has not, to my knowledge, officially put his name in the draft (yet).
    2. I'm guessing that the person who didn't rank McAdoo did so because he/she doesn't think McAdoo will enter this year.

    I'd also point out that the discrepancy may be partly a function of differences in information available. Guys like Chad Ford are very well-connected. Some of the other sites might very well be run by some kid out of his parents' house. I'm not saying that the sites you've mentioned qualify as the latter, but I could go home tonight and put together a website and put my guess for the draft. But my guesses would be fairly uninformed. Actually, what I'd probably do in such a hypothetical would be to take the list that Chad Ford prepared and make a few minor modifications based on "potential team needs."
    RT @RicBucher Draft buzz is agent Mark Bartlestein has landed Plumlee Twins & Jeff Schwartz will rep Tyler Zeller. If & when they go pro.

    https://twitter.com/#%21/RicBucher

  5. #265
    Quote Originally Posted by blueduke59 View Post
    RT @RicBucher Draft buzz is agent Mark Bartlestein has landed Plumlee Twins & Jeff Schwartz will rep Tyler Zeller. If & when they go pro.

    https://twitter.com/#%21/RicBucher
    As we've seen before, a tweet should not be considered evidence that a player has officially declared. Especially when that tweet specifically includes the word "If" with respect to whether or not the player goes pro.

    If Mason had declared for the draft (with or without an agent) Duke would have announced it. To my knowledge, that has not happened. I'd be quite surprised if Ric Bucher has more inside information about Mason than our on Duke insiders.

  6. #266
    Illinois Soph. center Meyers Leonard has declared for the draft. He averaged 13/8 this year and is predicted to go mid-to-late 1st round.

    LINK:http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspor...ps-to-the-nba/

  7. #267

    Plumee TWINS

    RT @RicBucher Draft buzz is agent Mark Bartlestein has landed Plumlee Twins & Jeff Schwartz will rep Tyler Zeller.


    Curious as to the identity of the "Plumlee Twins?" Is that MP1&MP2; or MP2&MP3; or...?

  8. #268
    Quote Originally Posted by billoz View Post
    RT @RicBucher Draft buzz is agent Mark Bartlestein has landed Plumlee Twins & Jeff Schwartz will rep Tyler Zeller.


    Curious as to the identity of the "Plumlee Twins?" Is that MP1&MP2; or MP2&MP3; or...?
    He later corrected himself with brothers (Mason and Miles), but someone else in the know said MP2 is still thinking about the draft as of today.

  9. #269
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Yeah, it sounds like he's repping Miles and will represent Mason whenever he comes out, whether it be this year or next. That's my take at least. Mason's in a bit of a unique position since Miles will be going through all the predraft prep. I wonder if he could manage a loophole by not submitting before the April 10th deadline, thereby giving him until April 29th to decide, but using Miles to gather information about his (Mason's) draft status, i.e. asking the scouts "so, what do you think about my brother?"

  10. #270
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    The most interesting part of Moneyball (to me) was the chapter on the draft and how Beane infuriated all the scouts with his offball approach. And you know what -- he basically blew it. They were right and he were wrong (at least for that draft). The centerpiece with the chapter was his love affair with an Ababama catcher that put up great numbers, but -- acoording to the scouts -- was a marginal prospect. Beane made the kid a first-round pick ... and (although it's not in the book) he bombed. In fact, they had like five first-round picks that year and the only one that panned out was the one that everybody else wanted -- Nick Swisher.

    I agree with the point that Beane exploited the misunderstanding of OBP and OPS (although with a few other measures) -- but it worked best when he used it to acquire undervalued veterans. His draft acumen turned out to be mediocre to poor.
    I disagree, actually. 3 of the 5 1st round picks from that draft have become MLB regulars. And Jeremy Brown at least made the major leagues. If you get 80% of your 1st round picks to the majors, 60% are regulars, and 40% are upper-tier regulars, you're doing something right. For comparison, look at the Cubs draft that same year. They had 4 1st round picks, none of whom made the majors.

    And remember: Beane fully admitted that Brown wasn't 1st round quality. But he also knew that he couldn't afford to spend 1st round money on all 5 1st round picks. So he made a habit of drafting guys earlier than they should have gone and signing them for less than market value for that pick.
    Last edited by CDu; 04-02-2012 at 09:36 PM.

  11. #271
    Tony Wroten just delcared.

  12. #272
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Weber State guard Damian Lillard going pro. The 6-foot-3, 21-year-old Lillard averaged 24.5 points, five rebounds and four assists en route to his second Big Sky MVP award.

    "Lillard is considered one of nation's top point guards and projected to go as high as No. 9 in June's draft."

    http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2012/sto...ares-nba-draft

    Mason moves down another notch.

  13. #273
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh

    david stern blathers

    "Either we're going down, or they are....... Kirk out!"

  14. #274
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    That's not our rule," he said. "Our rule is that they won't be eligible for the draft until they're 19. They can play in Europe, they can play in the D-League, they can go to college.
    Since the D-League is an NBA entity, that seems a bit goofy.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  15. #275

    NBA Rule

    Imagine short term what would happen to the draft if the NBA changed the rule to "must be three years removed from college". Mason would probably be a top 10 pick. According to NBAdraft.net this years top 10 eligible picks would be:

    1) Thomas Robinson, Kansas
    2) Arnett Moultrie, Miss. St.
    3) Damian Lillard, Weber State
    4) John Henson, UNC
    5) Tyler Zeller, UNC
    6) Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt
    7) Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonnie
    8) Mason Plumlee, Duke
    9) John Jenkins, Vanderbilt
    10) Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt

    Pretty bad talent with (undeserving???) guys making big money and more importantly guaranteed 3 three year contracts. I guess in this scenerio, Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly would consider leaving early...

  16. #276
    Quote Originally Posted by MIKESJ73 View Post
    Imagine short term what would happen to the draft if the NBA changed the rule to "must be three years removed from college". Mason would probably be a top 10 pick. According to NBAdraft.net this years top 10 eligible picks would be:

    1) Thomas Robinson, Kansas
    2) Arnett Moultrie, Miss. St.
    3) Damian Lillard, Weber State
    4) John Henson, UNC
    5) Tyler Zeller, UNC
    6) Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt
    7) Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonnie
    8) Mason Plumlee, Duke
    9) John Jenkins, Vanderbilt
    10) Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt

    Pretty bad talent with (undeserving???) guys making big money and more importantly guaranteed 3 three year contracts. I guess in this scenerio, Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly would consider leaving early...
    Well, part of this is that most/all of the top-tier talent from the previous two years (who would have been sophomores, juniors, or seniors this year) have already gone pro. Add Williams, Wall, Cousins, Favors, Henry, and Bradley (who would all have all been juniors this year had they been forced to stay 3 years) and that's a pretty stacked top of the draft again.

    But practically speaking, whenever/if ever an increase to the age limit is instituted, the subsequent draft class is going to be light on talent.

  17. #277
    Quote Originally Posted by MIKESJ73 View Post
    Imagine short term what would happen to the draft if the NBA changed the rule to "must be three years removed from college". Mason would probably be a top 10 pick. According to NBAdraft.net this years top 10 eligible picks would be:

    1) Thomas Robinson, Kansas
    2) Arnett Moultrie, Miss. St.
    3) Damian Lillard, Weber State
    4) John Henson, UNC
    5) Tyler Zeller, UNC
    6) Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt
    7) Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonnie
    8) Mason Plumlee, Duke
    9) John Jenkins, Vanderbilt
    10) Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt

    Pretty bad talent with (undeserving???) guys making big money and more importantly guaranteed 3 three year contracts. I guess in this scenerio, Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly would consider leaving early...
    I get where you're going with this thought process, but this list doesn't include all of the guys who left early in their freshman (2010 draft) and sophomore years (2011 draft).

    Names like Wall, Favors, Cousins, Williams, Hamilton would all be a part of that draft board (IIRC, and IF my brain is functioning properly today. I must put out that warning due to lack of sleep )

    So, in all likelihood, the names listed above would probably still be ranked where they are ranked now with the scenario proposed.

    EDIT - CDU's a stinker. He beat me to it!

  18. #278
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    But practically speaking, whenever/if ever an increase to the age limit is instituted, the subsequent draft class is going to be light on talent.
    Yes, wanted to add this in my post as well. The first draft following the institution of this rule would be a bit "weak", but the following drafts would even things out a bit.

  19. #279
    No surprise.
    Sullinger to announce he's entering the draft.

    http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2012/sto...ft-source-says

  20. #280
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC

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