In an absolute worst case scenario (for them) the Heels could lose Barnes, Henson, Mcadoo, and Marshall, on top of Zeller graduating. That would leave them with something like this for next year:
PF Brice Johnson?
C Joel James
A really young lineup and not much inside.Taking a look at their roster, they would actually have a number of shooting guards (Strickland, McDonald, Bullock, Hairston, Watts) which is kind of strange since SG has been their weakest position the last few years. I wouldn't be surprised to see a late pickup for them similar to Justin Knox.
My estimate is there's a 95-100% chance that Barnes and Henson each leave, 75% on McAdoo, and 50% or less for Marshall.
And I'm not sure I agree with the probability estimate for Marshall. His stock is probably as high as it will get thanks to showing scoring prowess down the stretch, the UNC struggles without him, and the lack of true PG ahead of him in this year's draft. I'd put the odds in favor of him going, especially if Henson leaves as well.
UNC was able to hang in there because they faced a greatly inferior Ohio team (to whom they probably should have lost) and a very sloppy Kansas team that allowed UNC to run and gun in the first half (taking the pressure off of White to create in the half court).
When the game settled down in the second half, the loss of Marshall really showed up. Marshall was the guy who could create something out of next to nothing. Without him, their offense went from being one of the most efficient in the country to being barely able to top 60 points.
Roy tailored the offense such that White didn't have to do anything dangerous, and Ohio and Kansas (for 25+ minutes at least) played a defensive plan and committed turnovers that allowed White to not get exploited. When Kansas finally figured out what they should do defensively and started cutting down on the awful turnovers, White stopped racking up the assists.
TT had a few high-assist games this season where pretty much all of them were him passing to Dre for open 3 pointers. So I agree assist totals can be deceiving.
Still, 0 TO in 2 games for a primary ballhandler, even one told specifically not to take chances, is pretty impressive.
Pictures of assist and dunk:
But this thread is suposed to be about early entries, not Stillman White and Tyler Thornton.
But look at the box scores: 9 of White's assists against Kansas came on jumpshots. One came on that alley oop. One came on a fast break layup by Henson. Another came in transition for a wide open Henson dunk. The last was a layup for McAdoo off an offensive rebound (don't remember that play). The only slightly low-risk pass was the alley-oop, and again Barnes wasn't really being defended on the play.
But that's missing the point. The point was not to say that White played poorly. He greatly exceeded expectations for sure. The point was that its erroneous to look at White's stat lines and suggest it as evidence that Marshall's stock should go down. The offense was much less efficient without Marshall than it was with Marshall, and the team was lucky to beat a #13 seed as a result.