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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    All 4 leave, Heels still have lots of good wingers ready to shine, a promising young PG to share that spot with combo Dex. Bigs are all projects for 2012-'13, so Heels live and die by the 3.
    Saying the Heels will live and die by the 3 is like saying Duke will pound it inside all game long. It's just not gonna happen.

    In an absolute worst case scenario (for them) the Heels could lose Barnes, Henson, Mcadoo, and Marshall, on top of Zeller graduating. That would leave them with something like this for next year:

    PG Paige
    SG Strickland/Bullock
    SF Hairston?
    PF Brice Johnson?
    C Joel James

    A really young lineup and not much inside.Taking a look at their roster, they would actually have a number of shooting guards (Strickland, McDonald, Bullock, Hairston, Watts) which is kind of strange since SG has been their weakest position the last few years. I wouldn't be surprised to see a late pickup for them similar to Justin Knox.

    My estimate is there's a 95-100% chance that Barnes and Henson each leave, 75% on McAdoo, and 50% or less for Marshall.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Saying the Heels will live and die by the 3 is like saying Duke will pound it inside all game long. It's just not gonna happen.

    In an absolute worst case scenario (for them) the Heels could lose Barnes, Henson, Mcadoo, and Marshall, on top of Zeller graduating. That would leave them with something like this for next year:

    PG Paige
    SG Strickland/Bullock
    SF Hairston?
    PF Brice Johnson?
    C Joel James

    A really young lineup and not much inside.Taking a look at their roster, they would actually have a number of shooting guards (Strickland, McDonald, Bullock, Hairston, Watts) which is kind of strange since SG has been their weakest position the last few years. I wouldn't be surprised to see a late pickup for them similar to Justin Knox.

    My estimate is there's a 95-100% chance that Barnes and Henson each leave, 75% on McAdoo, and 50% or less for Marshall.
    If they were to lose all of those guys, I'd expect Alex Oriakhi to be in Carolina blue next year and playing C. And I wouldn't be shocked to see another grad student transfer come in at PF.

    And I'm not sure I agree with the probability estimate for Marshall. His stock is probably as high as it will get thanks to showing scoring prowess down the stretch, the UNC struggles without him, and the lack of true PG ahead of him in this year's draft. I'd put the odds in favor of him going, especially if Henson leaves as well.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    My estimate is there's a 95-100% chance that Barnes and Henson each leave, 75% on McAdoo, and 50% or less for Marshall.
    There's a thread on the premium board at IC congratulating Marshall's dad. Unless Mr. Marshall has recently been knighted, I'd push KButter's odds over 50%.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    As many are saying, Marshall missing the last 2 rounds actually gave him a huge draft boost because they team was so much better when he played.
    I disagree with this. A lot of people assumed UNC was done once Marshall went down, but they were right there with Kansas until the last five minutes for a chance to go to the Final 4. Stillman White put up 13 assists and 0 turnovers in his two games, which makes you wonder how much of Marshall's play-making abilities has to do with his teammates.

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I disagree with this. A lot of people assumed UNC was done once Marshall went down, but they were right there with Kansas until the last five minutes for a chance to go to the Final 4. Stillman White put up 13 assists and 0 turnovers in his two games, which makes you wonder how much of Marshall's play-making abilities has to do with his teammates.
    That's a red herring. If you watched the game, you'd see that the offense stagnated a LOT without Marshall. White's assists were "safe" assists in that he wasn't making things happen. He merely happened to be in the right spot at the right time. He didn't turn the ball over mainly because he never tried to do anything remotely threatening a turnover. His assists were either handoffs on open court plays or passes to wide open shooters who happened to hit their jumpshots.

    UNC was able to hang in there because they faced a greatly inferior Ohio team (to whom they probably should have lost) and a very sloppy Kansas team that allowed UNC to run and gun in the first half (taking the pressure off of White to create in the half court).

    When the game settled down in the second half, the loss of Marshall really showed up. Marshall was the guy who could create something out of next to nothing. Without him, their offense went from being one of the most efficient in the country to being barely able to top 60 points.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    A really young lineup and not much inside.Taking a look at their roster, they would actually have a number of shooting guards (Strickland, McDonald, Bullock, Hairston, Watts) which is kind of strange since SG has been their weakest position the last few years. I wouldn't be surprised to see a late pickup for them similar to Justin Knox.
    Just a quick correction: Watts was a senior this year, so he is gone.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Pappa View Post
    Just a quick correction: Watts was a senior this year, so he is gone.
    Correct. However, you can toss Takoto in place of Watts. The SG/SF position will be very crowded next year with or without Barnes.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Roxboro, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I disagree with this. A lot of people assumed UNC was done once Marshall went down, but they were right there with Kansas until the last five minutes for a chance to go to the Final 4. Stillman White put up 13 assists and 0 turnovers in his two games, which makes you wonder how much of Marshall's play-making abilities has to do with his teammates.
    And how many more assist would White have had if Barnes had shot a decent percentage?

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    That's a red herring. If you watched the game, you'd see that the offense stagnated a LOT without Marshall. White's assists were "safe" assists in that he wasn't making things happen. He merely happened to be in the right spot at the right time. He didn't turn the ball over mainly because he never tried to do anything remotely threatening a turnover. His assists were either handoffs on open court plays or passes to wide open shooters who happened to hit their jumpshots.
    I see what you are saying, but 13 in 2 games seems like a lot of 'safe' assist. Why couldn't Tyler Thornton do that?

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by nocilla View Post
    And how many more assist would White have had if Barnes had shot a decent percentage?



    I see what you are saying, but 13 in 2 games seems like a lot of 'safe' assist. Why couldn't Tyler Thornton do that?
    In the right offense and against the right opponent on the right night he could. If Coach K told Thornton to only pass the ball to wide open players, never make a threatening drive unless wide open, and not force anything at all and we ran lots of screens to set up shooters (and those shooters made shots) he could very easily get those kind of numbers. At least 5 of those assists for example came on plays in which he essentially handed off the ball to an open man (in a couple of cases an open man in the lane) and that guy scored. Some of the others were passes to open jump shooters.

    Roy tailored the offense such that White didn't have to do anything dangerous, and Ohio and Kansas (for 25+ minutes at least) played a defensive plan and committed turnovers that allowed White to not get exploited. When Kansas finally figured out what they should do defensively and started cutting down on the awful turnovers, White stopped racking up the assists.

  10. #50
    TT had a few high-assist games this season where pretty much all of them were him passing to Dre for open 3 pointers. So I agree assist totals can be deceiving.

    Still, 0 TO in 2 games for a primary ballhandler, even one told specifically not to take chances, is pretty impressive.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    His assists were either handoffs on open court plays or passes to wide open shooters who happened to hit their jumpshots
    Quote Originally Posted by nocilla View Post
    And how many more assist would White have had if Barnes had shot a decent percentage?
    I see what you are saying, but 13 in 2 games seems like a lot of 'safe' assist. Why couldn't Tyler Thornton do that?
    His crazy alley-oop pass to Barnes didn't look like a "safe" assist to me....I was actually surprisingly impressed with White. Yes, he's obviously not the same as having Marshall run your team and Roy didn't have him take as many risks, but he was certainly not bad for a college PG. The downfall came when Kansas utilized the Va Tech defense against Thornton, though, and challenged White to take long jumpers. White and Thornton seemed to run the offense pretty similarly to me, actually. Thornton's D probably is a bit better though from a "staying in front of your man" perspective, but White might have the edge on quick hands for the steal (which he did against Kansas guards two or three times) a la Seth Curry's defense. Pains me to say that a bit, but that's at least what I saw over those two games. The game vs. Ohio would have been a blowout if Barnes could hit anything, so if anybody should be blamed for that close victory, it should be Barnes.

    Pictures of assist and dunk:
    http://www.dailytarheel.com/media/00...kansas_50f.jpg
    http://www.dailytarheel.com/media/00...kansas_49f.jpg

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    In the right offense and against the right opponent on the right night he could. If Coach K told Thornton to only pass the ball to wide open players, never make a threatening drive unless wide open, and not force anything at all and we ran lots of screens to set up shooters (and those shooters made shots) he could very easily get those kind of numbers.
    That's pretty much what Ty did on offense this year, and that was the problem. He didn't apply any pressure to the defense, and just made easy passes on the perimeter, and was dared to take jumpshots.

    But this thread is suposed to be about early entries, not Stillman White and Tyler Thornton.

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Latest Chad Ford chat on the draft. Lotta good stuff in here.

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA

    Watts is graduating

    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    shooting guards (Strickland, McDonald, Bullock, Hairston, Watts)
    Watts is graduating.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    That's a red herring. If you watched the game, you'd see that the offense stagnated a LOT without Marshall.
    I believe Urinal Cake is onto something. The heels really don't need Marshall. He needs to go to the NBA right now. In fact he needs to run to David Stern's office and declare.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    His crazy alley-oop pass to Barnes didn't look like a "safe" assist to me....I was actually surprisingly impressed with White. Yes, he's obviously not the same as having Marshall run your team and Roy didn't have him take as many risks, but he was certainly not bad for a college PG. The downfall came when Kansas utilized the Va Tech defense against Thornton, though, and challenged White to take long jumpers. White and Thornton seemed to run the offense pretty similarly to me, actually. Thornton's D probably is a bit better though from a "staying in front of your man" perspective, but White might have the edge on quick hands for the steal (which he did against Kansas guards two or three times) a la Seth Curry's defense. Pains me to say that a bit, but that's at least what I saw over those two games. The game vs. Ohio would have been a blowout if Barnes could hit anything, so if anybody should be blamed for that close victory, it should be Barnes.

    Pictures of assist and dunk:
    http://www.dailytarheel.com/media/00...kansas_50f.jpg
    http://www.dailytarheel.com/media/00...kansas_49f.jpg
    To clarify: I'm not saying that every single pass White threw was safe. Though I'd note that the alley-oop was safer than it looks - notice the lack of anyone guarding Barnes. I assume there was a high screen by either McAdoo or Henson and the big guarding Henson/McAdoo (I believe it was the inexperienced Young, as it appears that Robinson is guarding Zeller) failed to protect against the backdoor cut.

    But look at the box scores: 9 of White's assists against Kansas came on jumpshots. One came on that alley oop. One came on a fast break layup by Henson. Another came in transition for a wide open Henson dunk. The last was a layup for McAdoo off an offensive rebound (don't remember that play). The only slightly low-risk pass was the alley-oop, and again Barnes wasn't really being defended on the play.

    But that's missing the point. The point was not to say that White played poorly. He greatly exceeded expectations for sure. The point was that its erroneous to look at White's stat lines and suggest it as evidence that Marshall's stock should go down. The offense was much less efficient without Marshall than it was with Marshall, and the team was lucky to beat a #13 seed as a result.

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    That's a red herring. If you watched the game, you'd see that the offense stagnated a LOT without Marshall. White's assists were "safe" assists in that he wasn't making things happen. He merely happened to be in the right spot at the right time. He didn't turn the ball over mainly because he never tried to do anything remotely threatening a turnover. His assists were either handoffs on open court plays or passes to wide open shooters who happened to hit their jumpshots.

    UNC was able to hang in there because they faced a greatly inferior Ohio team (to whom they probably should have lost) and a very sloppy Kansas team that allowed UNC to run and gun in the first half (taking the pressure off of White to create in the half court).

    When the game settled down in the second half, the loss of Marshall really showed up. Marshall was the guy who could create something out of next to nothing. Without him, their offense went from being one of the most efficient in the country to being barely able to top 60 points.

    Agree 100%. White did fine, but no more than 1 or 2 of his assists occurred due to his making a play. Marshall's absence was absolutely the difference -- his injury made Marshall a bunch of money at Harrison Barnes' expense.

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Latest Chad Ford chat on the draft. Lotta good stuff in here.
    To be fair, while all of that sounds nice, none of it is anything we didn't already know. We knew that Marshall, Henson, Barnes, and McAdoo are all projected mid-1st or better IF they decide to go pro. He's just reiterating that. The question still remains whether or not they'll go.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The point was not to say that White played poorly. He greatly exceeded expectations for sure. The point was that its erroneous to look at White's stat lines and suggest it as evidence that Marshall's stock should go down. The offense was much less efficient without Marshall than it was with Marshall, and the team was lucky to beat a #13 seed as a result.
    I can certainly agree with that! Hopefully, Marshall realizes that this draft is a weak PG class (and probably his best chance to go lottery) and takes the plunge...

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    New York
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    I can certainly agree with that! Hopefully, Marshall realizes that this draft is a weak PG class (and probably his best chance to go lottery) and takes the plunge...
    This tweet (from someone I have never heard of) was at the top of an IC thread titled "Gonna be a long year..." For what it's worth.

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