Looking Ahead To 2012-2013

[mo.st.dukie]

The one glaring problem to me was the lack of intensity brought by the team this year...that HAS to be addressed, it came across as if at time we we're juts playing cause we were already out there and not that we wanted to actually take it to our opponent. They're are way too many passive attitudes on this team, Tyler was the only one who showed that fire consistently and unfortunately his skill level doesn't match his heart but he has that dog in him that we need, we just needed it from others also....Watching the end of Kansas game specifically last night and just watching the emotion and intensity coming from Robinson, and Taylor among others after a big play down the stretch...you could see how much they wanted it, it wasn't about talent or rankings or stats it was all about what's inside. For whatever reason no one seemed to be able to get that out of this team, not K, not Tyler it just wasn't there...hopefully next year being seniors Seth, Ryan, Dre, and Mason (maybe) get that sense of urgency and desire to really leave their mark on the program.

Sometimes you have to have your heart broken to really appreciate things. The junior class pretty much road the coattails of the group that came before them. They had success very early on without much of the pain. The group before them suffered some heart breaking losses and was ripped to shreds by the media and fans. That created a certain culture with that group. They understood how difficult it actually was to win and how important it was to bring that intensity and emotion for 40 minutes EVERY SINGLE GAME. They didn't always understand that but by the time the 2010 season rolled around it was just a part of who that team was. That culture just wasn't there for this group. This loss is painful, embarrassing, etc. but hopefully they use it to get better.

[dukedoc]

In my view, the key to next year's team will lie in the class of 2013 (and I'm guessing Mason returns).

Off-hand, I can't recall a Duke class which has had a harder time establishing some consistency.
Mason, Dre, Seth, Ryan---each can and has had big games, and had other games where they almost totally disappeared.

Mason---got to work on hitting a 10 to 15 foot jump shot.
Dre --- got to improve his ball handling, continue to improve on defense, and play at a more even emotional pitch
Seth --- ball handling, leadership development, react better to big game pressure
Ryan -- will need more rebounding, avoid periods of passivity

For all -- will they step up and take ownership of this team?

A good team can be developed with more reliance on underclassman, but the most direct path to success is by better play from the rising seniors.

Well, given that we had only Miles as a true senior this year, those guys had a bit of a dry run this year at taking the mantle of leadership. We saw some spurts of leadership here and there, but not enough. That either bodes poorly for next year, or they will take this year's dry run, build upon it, and truly lead next year. I honestly don't think any of their personalities/temperaments are those of natural leaders, but leadership can be taught/cultivated to some extent, so hopefully that'll happen under K's guidance.

[CDu]

3) The only caveat emptor I've seen the #2: If you can shoot the 3-ball, you will play. This is how Redick, Paulus, Scheyer, Kelly, and Dawkins all got significant PT their freshman years. Nolan Smith? not a great shooter 3 pt shooter (thought made significant progress as the years progressed) so he didn't play. Gbinjie? Not a great 3 point shooter, so he doesn't play. I expect that as he'll learn the system more, his minutes will improve.

This is incorrect. Redick got playing time because he was one of the best players on that 2002-2003 team (which was very inexperienced and lacking in proven perimeter scorers). Paulus got playing time because he was (theoretically at least) the only true PG on the roster. In fact, he wasn't even a very good 3pt shooter as a freshman (31%). Dawkins and Kelly only got PT mainly because we literally didn't have other bodies. Dawkins was our third guard, and Kelly was our 9th man. It had nothing to do with 3pt shooting ability.

Conversely, we've had guys who could shoot that just didn't play. Taylor King, for example, was a very capable 3pt shooter, but got buried on the bench.

Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee - no one has seen a minute of basketball from them. To expect them to come in and be incredible - this is setting the bar too high IMO. If they were incredible, they would have played this year. My expectation from MP3 is a freshman year MP1 or freshman year MP2 - because that is what he'll be. I expect both's ceilings next year to be "capable" on the upper end.

First, I don't think anyone is expecting Marshall to come in and be incredible. But I disagree with your assessment that we should expect freshman year Miles or freshman year Mason. Marshall will only be a freshman in terms of game experience and eligibility. But he'll have a year's worth of additional physical and emotional maturity, an additional year's worth of strength training with Duke's training staff, and an additional year's worth of practice against two ACC-caliber centers, and an additional year's worth of familiarity with Coach K's defensive system.

Many people continue to discount these things with regard to redshirts. And frankly it's understandable given how rare it is to see redshirts in college basketball. But the differences between a redshirt freshman and a true freshman are vast. It's possible that Marshall only resembles the freshman year results of Mason and Miles. But I think it's much more reasonable to hope for at least sophomore year Miles (as Marshall was a more highly-regarded recruit than Miles) and dream for sophomore year Mason (knowing that Mason was a more highly-regarding recruit than Marshall). That's much closer to the reality, in my opinion.

Murphy's may be higher, but the expectations regarding MP3 are out of control. Here is a center, who was not highly recruited, who was incredibly small coming into college, and now all of sudden is expected to be capable of guarding Zeller?

I'm not sure I follow your logic at all here. First, Marshall wasn't "incredibly small" coming into college. He was 6'11" 225. That's on the thin size, but it's not that thin for a freshman big man. Zeller was 7'0" 250. That's not a huge disparity. And I'd expect at least 10 pounds more on Marshall's frame next year. Second, Zeller isn't going to be playing for UNC next year. So setting the bar at Zeller seems silly. In fact, there could very well be a dearth of great centers next year in the ACC if Henson and Reggie Johnson join Zeller and James in leaving.

[roywhite]

Well, given that we had only Miles as a true senior this year, those guys had a bit of a dry run this year at taking the mantle of leadership. We saw some spurts of leadership here and there, but not enough. That either bodes poorly for next year, or they will take this year's dry run, build upon it, and truly lead next year. I honestly don't think any of their personalities/temperaments are those of natural leaders, but leadership can be taught/cultivated to some extent, so hopefully that'll happen under K's guidance.

Agree with your comments on leadership; it's important, but may not happen with this group.

Even without the leadership facet, it seems vital that they play more consistently and improve.

[dcar1985]

This is incorrect. Redick got playing time because he was one of the best players on that 2002-2003 team (which was very inexperienced and lacking in proven perimeter scorers). Paulus got playing time because he was (theoretically at least) the only true PG on the roster. In fact, he wasn't even a very good 3pt shooter as a freshman (31%). Dawkins and Kelly only got PT mainly because we literally didn't have other bodies. Dawkins was our third guard, and Kelly was our 9th man. It had nothing to do with 3pt shooting ability.

Conversely, we've had guys who could shoot that just didn't play. Taylor King, for example, was a very capable 3pt shooter, but got buried on the bench.



First, I don't think anyone is expecting Marshall to come in and be incredible. But I disagree with your assessment that we should expect freshman year Miles or freshman year Mason. Marshall will only be a freshman in terms of game experience and eligibility. But he'll have a year's worth of additional physical and emotional maturity, an additional year's worth of strength training with Duke's training staff, and an additional year's worth of practice against two ACC-caliber centers, and an additional year's worth of familiarity with Coach K's defensive system.

Many people continue to discount these things with regard to redshirts. And frankly it's understandable given how rare it is to see redshirts in college basketball. But the differences between a redshirt freshman and a true freshman are vast. It's possible that Marshall only resembles the freshman year results of Mason and Miles. But I think it's much more reasonable to hope for at least sophomore year Miles (as Marshall was a more highly-regarded recruit than Miles) and dream for sophomore year Mason (knowing that Mason was a more highly-regarding recruit than Marshall). That's much closer to the reality, in my opinion.



I'm not sure I follow your logic at all here. First, Marshall wasn't "incredibly small" coming into college. He was 6'11" 225. That's on the thin size, but it's not that thin for a freshman big man. Zeller was 7'0" 250. That's not a huge disparity. And I'd expect at least 10 pounds more on Marshall's frame next year. Second, Zeller isn't going to be playing for UNC next year. So setting the bar at Zeller seems silly. In fact, there could very well be a dearth of great centers next year in the ACC if Henson and Reggie Johnson join Zeller and James in leaving.

a 25 lb difference in muscle when your banging down low is definitely a huge disparity...

[Matches]

Sometimes you have to have your heart broken to really appreciate things. The junior class pretty much road the coattails of the group that came before them. They had success very early on without much of the pain. The group before them suffered some heart breaking losses and was ripped to shreds by the media and fans. That created a certain culture with that group. They understood how difficult it actually was to win and how important it was to bring that intensity and emotion for 40 minutes EVERY SINGLE GAME. They didn't always understand that but by the time the 2010 season rolled around it was just a part of who that team was. That culture just wasn't there for this group. This loss is painful, embarrassing, etc. but hopefully they use it to get better.

This is IMO a very salient point. It's always a delicate situation when you have underclassmen who are (arguably) more talented than upperclassmen who have won in the past. UNC went through that in 1994 with Wallace/ Stackhouse/ McInnis supplanting some of the guys who won in 1993.

We have a lot of upperclassmen who have rings, and who are good players, but none who are team-carrying stars. It's hard for any coach to mix those guys with a freshman who immediately becomes the focus of the offense.

[CDu]

a 25 lb difference in muscle when your banging down low is definitely a huge disparity...

Thankfully that 25lb difference is likely to be only a 10-15 pound difference next year. I highly doubt Marshall hasn't already added weight this year, and I'd be even more surprised if he didn't add even more weight over the summer and fall. By comparison, Mason is listed as only 10lbs heavier, and I only remember one game in which he was really outmuscled (Reggie Johnson). In the other games in which Mason struggled, he was beaten by positioning and skills. Zeller most certainly didn't outmuscle Mason. I'd say a 10lb difference when you're talking about 6'10" guys is basically negligible.

[60's Devil]

This is a thread about next season. What "BIG" of that caliber do you think is available at this time in the recruiting process? And what do you mean by "acquiring"? You think we can make a trade with a Big East team, or do you think there's an aisle at Best Buy where we can purchase such a commodity?

Like it or not, next season our center is going to be Mason (if he returns) or Ryan (if Mason doesn't return). Whichever one it is, I believe he will be 2nd team All-ACC, or maybe 1st team. Despite that, I also predict people on DBR will spend most of the season complaining about him.

Very funny? If they have got one at Best Buy we had better hightail it over there. While in the store, let's look for a lightning quick point guard who can penetrate and and stop penetration. Maybe all these lesser teams we see in the tournament with great teams and no McD AA's have been shopping at Best Buy.

[unexpected]

This is incorrect. Redick got playing time because he was one of the best players on that 2002-2003 team (which was very inexperienced and lacking in proven perimeter scorers). Paulus got playing time because he was (theoretically at least) the only true PG on the roster. In fact, he wasn't even a very good 3pt shooter as a freshman (31%). Dawkins and Kelly only got PT mainly because we literally didn't have other bodies. Dawkins was our third guard, and Kelly was our 9th man. It had nothing to do with 3pt shooting ability.

Conversely, we've had guys who could shoot that just didn't play. Taylor King, for example, was a very capable 3pt shooter, but got buried on the bench.

First, I don't think anyone is expecting Marshall to come in and be incredible. But I disagree with your assessment that we should expect freshman year Miles or freshman year Mason. Marshall will only be a freshman in terms of game experience and eligibility. But he'll have a year's worth of additional physical and emotional maturity, an additional year's worth of strength training with Duke's training staff, and an additional year's worth of practice against two ACC-caliber centers, and an additional year's worth of familiarity with Coach K's defensive system.

Many people continue to discount these things with regard to redshirts. And frankly it's understandable given how rare it is to see redshirts in college basketball. But the differences between a redshirt freshman and a true freshman are vast. It's possible that Marshall only resembles the freshman year results of Mason and Miles. But I think it's much more reasonable to hope for at least sophomore year Miles (as Marshall was a more highly-regarded recruit than Miles) and dream for sophomore year Mason (knowing that Mason was a more highly-regarding recruit than Marshall). That's much closer to the reality, in my opinion.



I'm not sure I follow your logic at all here. First, Marshall wasn't "incredibly small" coming into college. He was 6'11" 225. That's on the thin size, but it's not that thin for a freshman big man. Zeller was 7'0" 250. That's not a huge disparity. And I'd expect at least 10 pounds more on Marshall's frame next year. Second, Zeller isn't going to be playing for UNC next year. So setting the bar at Zeller seems silly. In fact, there could very well be a dearth of great centers next year in the ACC if Henson and Reggie Johnson join Zeller and James in leaving.

1) I would argue that during his first two years, Redick was not the best player on the team. I'm not sure where you're getting your stats from (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...-redick-1.html). This seems to say that Redick was a fairly consistent 3pt shooter throughout his career. Dahntay Jones and Chris Duhon were the best players on that freshman year team. Dahntay was a BEAST that year - a very capable scorer, and wasn't Duhon pre-season NPOY?

Don't overlook Daniel Ewing from that team either. He was quicker, as well as a better defender than Redick that year. I would argue that Redick got the starting nod simply b/c of his 3 point ability. Redick will be the first to tell you that he was not in the best of shape his first two years (he trimmed down from 210 to 195) and was not a great defender. Let's not conflate the player he would become (one of the greatest Duke basketball players of all time) with the player he was.

Paulus: Paulus was not the only true PG on the roster. We also had the very capable Sean Dockery. Dockery was a MUCH better defender and MUCH quicker. He was also a highly touted recruit (in fact, Dockery's recruiting line is very similar to Rasheed Sulaimon's), and there was much discussion, even on these very boards, on who would be a better start. Dockery though, was never a great shooter, and did not have nearly the same level of court vision that Paulus had, so Paulus started.

Taylor King: King had multiple issues, his talent notwithstanding. When his 3 shot was falling, he got playing time. When his 3 shot was not, he sat. A highly-touted shooter, I would argue that if he kept scoring, he would have kept playing- but when his shot was not falling, he seemed unwilling to make the adjustments required (play hard d, have a positive mentality) needed to stay on the floor. I don't think correlation equals causation with this one - esp since he ended up as a basketball vagabond.

2) Re: redshirts. I've seen sites where Marshall is listed as 7'0", 200 lb coming into college. Regardless of his weight then and now, Marshall has put on significant lbs and literally has to learn to play in a new body. This is a big adjustment. Red shirts, as you said, are incredibly rare in college hoops, and absolutely no one knows how good marshall and alex were before they red-shirted, so I think it's totally acceptable to treat them as normal freshman. I think it's unfair to simply say "the difference between a redshirt freshman and a regular freshman is vast" - we simply do not know, there have not been enough datapoints to say whether it is true or not. Given that we can't "prove" whether you're right or I'm wrong, I would rather set a low bar, and let them exceed it, than set too high of expectations for them.

We do have a data point re: a year off - Seth Curry. Seth Curry is a great player, but pretty much the same player that he was at Liberty. His transfer year didn't dramatically transform his game.

As far as centers go, you may find this other parallel rather interesting. Wisconsin's Brian Butch was a McDonald's All-American center, who elected to redshirt his freshman year at UW in order to get physically stronger. His redshirt freshman year stat line: 10 min/game of action with 3.6 ppg, 2.5 reb/game. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Butch) Hardly otherwordly. He turned into a competent center by his senior year, however, and averaged 12/10 during his final campaign.

[Kedsy]

These are things we know to be true...

3) The only caveat emptor I've seen the #2...

"Caveat emptor" means "let the buyer beware."

I'm uncomfortable with Rivers playing a large portion of the offense if he continues to only hit 65% from the FT line. Great Duke guards take care of the charity stripe (see: Redick and Jon Scheyer).

Austin shot 65.5% from the free throw line. Jason Williams shot 65.9% from the line our 2001 championship season. What was that you were saying about "great Duke guards"?

We'll probably be a 4-5 seed, maybe make some noise in the dance, but that's okay with me, b/c we're doing it the Duke way and laying up an excellent, athletic foundation for future years.

In the last 16 years we've only been lower than a #2 seed twice, in 2003 (#3) and 2007 (#6). So you think next season will be the 2nd worst season we've had since 1997? And "these are things we know to be true"? Unexpected, indeed.

[Kedsy]

Paulus: Paulus was not the only true PG on the roster. We also had the very capable Sean Dockery. Dockery was a MUCH better defender and MUCH quicker. He was also a highly touted recruit (in fact, Dockery's recruiting line is very similar to Rasheed Sulaimon's), and there was much discussion, even on these very boards, on who would be a better start. Dockery though, was never a great shooter, and did not have nearly the same level of court vision that Paulus had, so Paulus started.

Dockery started that year as well. Although since he was a senior, that was not unexpected. Your version of the story doesn't make that much sense.

[unexpected]

"Caveat emptor" means "let the buyer beware."



Austin shot 65.5% from the free throw line. Jason Williams shot 65.9% from the line our 2001 championship season. What was that you were saying about "great Duke guards"?



In the last 16 years we've only been lower than a #2 seed twice, in 2003 (#3) and 2007 (#6). So you think next season will be the 2nd worst season we've had since 1997? And "these are things we know to be true"? Unexpected, indeed.

Williams was surrounded by incredible talent - talent that the current team does not have. The 1999-2002 teams were able to dominate teams through sheer talent. Williams lack of FT ability was again, a source of much consternation on these boards. Given our limited ability to score, and our offensive woes that plagued us in the 2nd half of the season, we absolutely cannot afford to leave points at the charity stripe.

Given the information we have available - that lottery picks usually jump (so AR leaving), Mason at 50/50 and Bazz at <50%, then yes, I do think next year will be the 2nd worst season since 1997 - and there's nothing wrong with that. There remains much basketball to be played (duh!), but the season I outlined is respectable by any conventional measure. Personally I feel its better to keep our expectations in check, and be pleasantly surprised!

Insert lame pun about Kedsy here.

And if you want to bring up Williams, never forget Duke-Indiana in 2002: "Top-seeded Duke had a chance to tie it with 4.2 seconds left when Williams -- a unanimous All-American -- was fouled as he made a long 3-pointer to get the Blue Devils within a point. But he missed the free throw, and Carlos Boozer couldn't convert a follow shot."

[CDu]

1) I would argue that during his first two years, Redick was not the best player on the team. I'm not sure where you're getting your stats from (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...-redick-1.html). This seems to say that Redick was a fairly consistent 3pt shooter throughout his career. Dahntay Jones and Chris Duhon were the best players on that freshman year team. Dahntay was a BEAST that year - a very capable scorer, and wasn't Duhon pre-season NPOY?

I didn't say he was the best player on the team. I said he was one of the best. Jones was better at that point, for sure. Your memory is off on Duhon, though. Duhon was never, at any point, the preseason National Player of the Year (I'm not even sure that such an honor exists, but it wasn't him). He was expected to be all-ACC, but he struggled as a junior. He re-emerged as a terrific senior leader. Regardless, you misquoted my statement entirely. I said he was one of the best. And that's absolutely accurate. There is absolutely no question that Redick was one of the five best players on that team and he was one of the three best guards. I say this without any hesitation.

And anyway, I'm not sure why you're comparing Redick to Duhon, Ewing and Jones. All four players were played 27+ mpg. The guys who didn't play as much were Sanders, Williams (a freshman with very limited offensive game at that point), Randolph (injured and not ready defensively), Dockery (the backup PG and very limited offensively), and Melchionni (a role player), and guys even worse than that. So again - Redick played a lot because he had to play a lot. Same thing for Ewing, who wasn't quite the player he was as a junior and senior that year. Both guys played a lot because the team needed them to do so.

Paulus: Paulus was not the only true PG on the roster. We also had the very capable Sean Dockery. Dockery was a MUCH better defender and MUCH quicker. He was also a highly touted recruit (in fact, Dockery's recruiting line is very similar to Rasheed Sulaimon's), and there was much discussion, even on these very boards, on who would be a better start. Dockery though, was never a great shooter, and did not have nearly the same level of court vision that Paulus had, so Paulus started.

Again, you're drawing a false comparison. For one thing, Dockery had shown no inclination for running Coach K's offense. He was a terrific defender, but not a true PG. I'd also note that Dockery was in fact a regular starter on that team and averaged 30mpg, so your argument falls short there. Paulus didn't rob Dockery of playing time.

For another thing, Paulus wasn't actually the initial starter. Nelson was initially the starter, but he had two bad ankle injuries that sidelined him for several weeks and limited his effectiveness. So Paulus took over as the PG with Dockery moving to SG. So Paulus didn't get the start because of 3pt shooting.

Also, I see you're now expanding your definition to "court vision" as opposed to 3pt shooting. Which sort of proves my point. But the bigger point is that Paulus played and played a lot because he had to do so. Coach K needed a body, and he needed a playmaker. Nelson was injured and Dockery had not shown any of the playmaking skill set while at Duke. It was either Paulus, Melchionni, or Pocius.

2) Re: redshirts. I've seen sites where Marshall is listed as 7'0", 200 lb coming into college. Regardless of his weight then and now, Marshall has put on significant lbs and literally has to learn to play in a new body. This is a big adjustment. Red shirts, as you said, are incredibly rare in college hoops, and absolutely no one knows how good marshall and alex were before they red-shirted, so I think it's totally acceptable to treat them as normal freshman. I think it's unfair to simply say "the difference between a redshirt freshman and a regular freshman is vast" - we simply do not know, there have not been enough datapoints to say whether it is true or not. Given that we can't "prove" whether you're right or I'm wrong, I would rather set a low bar, and let them exceed it, than set too high of expectations for them.

Scout, Rivals, ESPN, CBS, and GoDuke, all listed him at 215 or more. I'm not sure where you got your 200lb from, but I'm guessing it was quite out of date. ESPN now lists him at 225. I'd expect him to be at 235 or more by next season. And I simply disagree that redshirts should be viewed the same as freshmen. I see no reason to treat redshirts as normal freshman. They are a year older. They are a year stronger. They have an additional year of college coaching. They have an additional year of familiarity with the Duke system. They have an additional year of acclimation with the college lifestyle, both athletically and academically. I see no reason to assume that they should be viewed as freshmen other than that the NCAA has allowed them that extra year of eligibility.

We do have a data point re: a year off - Seth Curry. Seth Curry is a great player, but pretty much the same player that he was at Liberty. His transfer year didn't dramatically transform his game.

As far as centers go, you may find this other parallel rather interesting. Wisconsin's Brian Butch was a McDonald's All-American center, who elected to redshirt his freshman year at UW in order to get physically stronger. His redshirt freshman year stat line: 10 min/game of action with 3.6 ppg, 2.5 reb/game. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Butch) Hardly otherwordly. He turned into a competent center by his senior year, however, and averaged 12/10 during his final campaign.

You are using a sample size of 1 in each case, and (in Butch's case) cherry picking an argument. I'd respond by saying that an N of 1 is hardly grounds for using a definitive reference.

[unexpected]

I didn't say he was the best player on the team. I said he was one of the best. Jones was better at that point, for sure. Your memory is off on Duhon, though. Duhon was never, at any point, the preseason National Player of the Year (I'm not even sure that such an honor exists, but it wasn't him). He was expected to be all-ACC, but he struggled as a junior. He re-emerged as a terrific senior leader. Regardless, you misquoted my statement entirely. I said he was one of the best. And that's absolutely accurate. There is absolutely no question that Redick was one of the five best players on that team and he was one of the three best guards. I say this without any hesitation.

And anyway, I'm not sure why you're comparing Redick to Duhon, Ewing and Jones. All four players were played 27+ mpg. The guys who didn't play as much were Sanders, Williams (a freshman with very limited offensive game at that point), Randolph (injured and not ready defensively), Dockery (the backup PG and very limited offensively), and Melchionni (a role player), and guys even worse than that. So again - Redick played a lot because he had to play a lot. Same thing for Ewing, who wasn't quite the player he was as a junior and senior that year. Both guys played a lot because the team needed them to do so.



Again, you're drawing a false comparison. For one thing, Dockery had shown no inclination for running Coach K's offense. He was a terrific defender, but not a true PG. I'd also note that Dockery was in fact a regular starter on that team and averaged 30mpg, so your argument falls short there. Paulus didn't rob Dockery of playing time.

For another thing, Paulus wasn't actually the initial starter. Nelson was initially the starter, but he had two bad ankle injuries that sidelined him for several weeks and limited his effectiveness. So Paulus took over as the PG with Dockery moving to SG. So Paulus didn't get the start because of 3pt shooting.

Also, I see you're now expanding your definition to "court vision" as opposed to 3pt shooting. Which sort of proves my point. But the bigger point is that Paulus played and played a lot because he had to do so. Coach K needed a body, and he needed a playmaker. Nelson was injured and Dockery had not shown any of the playmaking skill set while at Duke. It was either Paulus, Melchionni, or Pocius.



Scout, Rivals, ESPN, CBS, and GoDuke, all listed him at 215 or more. I'm not sure where you got your 200lb from, but I'm guessing it was quite out of date. ESPN now lists him at 225. I'd expect him to be at 235 or more by next season. And I simply disagree that redshirts should be viewed the same as freshmen. I see no reason to treat redshirts as normal freshman. They are a year older. They are a year stronger. They have an additional year of college coaching. They have an additional year of familiarity with the Duke system. They have an additional year of acclimation with the college lifestyle, both athletically and academically. I see no reason to assume that they should be viewed as freshmen other than that the NCAA has allowed them that extra year of eligibility.



You are using a sample size of 1 in each case, and (in Butch's case) cherry picking an argument. I'd respond by saying that an N of 1 is hardly grounds for using a definitive reference.

I'm not trying to cherry pick. As we've said, a redshirt is incredibly rare. Butch was a recent example, of the same talent level (low-level McDonald's All-American), playing the same position. If you think, I'm cherry-picking, let's look for more examples.

I found this article on Big 10 redshirts (http://qctimes.com/sports/basketball...9bb2963f4.html).

In addition to Butch, it lists 3 more big 10 red shirts (none of same talent level/skill as Butch).

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../jordan-morgan
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...nthony-johnson
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...onathan-graham

Of these, Jordan Morgan seems to have had the best success, but has seemed to regress this year (9 pts/5 rebounds to 7 pts/5 rebounds). Anthony johnson and jonathan graham - their results seem to be mixed at best. I would love to see examples of "more successful" redshirts. I say "more successful" because I believe the true measure of MP3 and Murphy's redshirt will come in years 4-5.

[CDu]

I'm not trying to cherry pick. As we've said, a redshirt is incredibly rare. Butch was a recent example, of the same talent level (low-level McDonald's All-American), playing the same position. If you think, I'm cherry-picking, let's look for more examples.

I found this article on Big 10 redshirts (http://qctimes.com/sports/basketball...9bb2963f4.html).

In addition to Butch, it lists 3 more big 10 red shirts (none of same talent level/skill as Butch).

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../jordan-morgan
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...nthony-johnson
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...onathan-graham

Of these, Jordan Morgan seems to have had the best success, but has seemed to regress this year (9 pts/5 rebounds to 7 pts/5 rebounds). Anthony johnson and jonathan graham - their results seem to be mixed at best. I would love to see examples of "more successful" redshirts. I say "more successful" because I believe the true measure of MP3 and Murphy's redshirt will come in years 4-5.

I wouldn't expect Marshall to be any better than what Jordan Morgan did. I might even expect a bit less. As I said, I'd expect somewhere between sophomore year Miles (16.4mpg, 5.2ppg, 4.8rpg) and sophomore year Mason (25.6mpg, 7.2ppg, 8.4rpg). I have no expectation that Marshall will threaten anyone's All-ACC list next year. And I completely agree that the real benefit comes in replacing Marshall's 2011-2012 with the possibility of Marshall's 2015-2016 (if he chooses to stay that long), while making his 2012-2015 seasons incrementally better as well by having spent a year preparing to play.

[UrinalCake]

And if you want to bring up Williams, never forget Duke-Indiana in 2002: "Top-seeded Duke had a chance to tie it with 4.2 seconds left when Williams -- a unanimous All-American -- was fouled as he made a long 3-pointer to get the Blue Devils within a point. But he missed the free throw, and Carlos Boozer couldn't convert a follow shot."

"Couldn't convert a follow shot" might not be the most accurate description of the play around this board

[unexpected]

I wouldn't expect Marshall to be any better than what Jordan Morgan did. I might even expect a bit less. As I said, I'd expect somewhere between sophomore year Miles (16.4mpg, 5.2ppg, 4.8rpg) and sophomore year Mason (25.6mpg, 7.2ppg, 8.4rpg). I have no expectation that Marshall will threaten anyone's All-ACC list next year. And I completely agree that the real benefit comes in replacing Marshall's 2011-2012 with the possibility of Marshall's 2015-2016 (if he chooses to stay that long), while making his 2012-2015 seasons incrementally better as well by having spent a year preparing to play.

I think these expectations are reasonable if we assume that MP2 is leaving. If MP2 stays, though, I'd expect MP2/Kelly/Hairston to see the bulk of the rotation minutes. I think soph year miles is possible if we go with a "line change" concept (which would be pretty neat, given the success we had with it in 2010!)

Needless to say, I think we're both in agreement that MP3 is not going to be the linchpin of next year's success.

[OldSchool]

I watched the team closely this year. As far as I can tell, our problems were not poor chemistry or players not liking each other or lack of will to win. It was underdeveloped basketball IQ which manifested itself on the offensive end in poor timing and out-of-sync playing and a hesitating offense and on the defensive end with slow reaction and rotations to what the opponent was doing offensively. And offensively, even though looking over the season as a whole we had quite a potent offense (until the end of the season) it could have been much more powerful if we made better use of our personnel.

Some of our underdeveloped basketball IQ was inevitable, as our players were developing themselves. We saw how at the beginning of the year Austin struggled with turnovers and playing out of control and being flummoxed by a double or triple team and poor defense. He made a great improvement throughout the year. We gave heavy minutes to Tyler at the point and some to Quinn and both were new at that at the top college level. Seth was handed the ball and told to be a point guard for a while. So, there was always going to be a big learning curve.

If Austin and Mason come back, here is what I am please BEGGING the coaching staff to do.

Have our video guy string together lots and lots of clips of Nash and Amare Stoudemire in their Phoenix days or Deron Williams and Boozer in their Utah days running the pick and roll. JUST the pick and roll footage, please. No clips of Westbrook/Durant or of Dwight Howard. Focus on the pairings I suggested or similar ones.

Now, Austin, Mason, Collins and Wojo please sit down together for a couple of hours in front of a big screen and watch this. Watch how they roll and how the ball is delivered to the big. Then watch the big make his decisions and his moves. If there is an open lane, he takes a step or two and flushes. If not, he sees what the defense is doing and makes a decision accordingly.

People, we can run this play. With smart, veteran mobile bigs this is the way to attack. Not just planting our guy under the rim like Dwight Howard and bouncing the ball to him or only having him roll across the lane and throw up a hook shot.

People claim Mason is unathletic or has bad hands. That is utter nonsense. Everyone will look like they have bad hands when we don’t deliver the ball to our post guy in the paint until the defense is completely set and waiting for the entry pass and we bounce it to Mason’s knees making him fight a little guy for it.

We can do that with this personnel and college teams will find it extremely difficult to defend us on it. But it does not come without practice, practice, practice (cue Allen Iverson). You can’t run it once or twice and say “Mason fumbled the ball out of bounds” or “Mason charged” and give up on it. Practice it, these guys are athletic and skilled enough to pull it off and once they get the timing down and with experience, wow.

The way to use a mobile big like Mason and a devastating penetrator like Austin is the way the pros do it. Put the big in motion on the pick and roll. If run proficiently, it may well be the hardest play in basketball to defend. It wouldn’t surprise me if we could successfully run this play with Seth or Quinn handling the ball and Ryan as well.

Someone will scoff and say “Austin isn’t Deron Williams and Mason isn’t Amare Stoudemire.” Yeah, okay, but we also aren’t trying to run our plays against defenders like Kobe and Garnett, so they don’t need to be.

This doesn’t mean we give up on three-point shooting or Austin taking it to rack himself. But it would supply a missing key dimension to our offense and give us needed balance.

[azzefkram]

Austin shot 65.5% from the free throw line. Jason Williams shot 65.9% from the line our 2001 championship season. What was that you were saying about "great Duke guards"?

Jay Williams converted over 50% of his two point shot attempts and was significantly better at finishing through contact. I'd take 65% of and 1's over 65% of shooting two.

[superdave]

We should start making people sign their posts about minute distributions and scoring projections for the next season on these boards in blood. That could be fun.

Or we should probably all give this a few weeks and see where the recruits land and who the NBA steals.

I am personally concentrating all my powers on helping the Ohio Bobcats beat Carolina by 33 until Duke's 2013 roster becomes a little more clear. First things first.