Looking Ahead To 2012-2013

[Kedsy]

Can't see Suliamon there since we will need him at SG.

I expect Seth to play 30 to 35 mpg. If I'm right, Rasheed will get only 5 to 10 mpg at SG. Since Rasheed has a pretty good chance at 25 or so mpg, that means he'll have to get those fill-in minutes at either PG or SF or, more likely, both.

Will either Cook or Thornton step up and be a productive PG for us, or will we have to play Curry or Sulaimon out of position a lot?

[Conversely] Will Sulaimon push Cook/Thornton to the bench to start at PG alongside Curry?

I agree this will be very interesting to watch. Can Quinn become the dynamic PG that we all hope he will? If so, we're going to be really, really good. If not, will Rasheed be capable of running the team and use his reputed defensive prowess to shut down the other team's PG? If so, I think we'll also be really, really good.

Will Murphy and Jefferson be ready to hold down the SF spot? If they are able, I think we look very very good. But that's a big if.

Yes, this is the other big pre-season question. Although I believe Rasheed is going to play 5 to 10 minutes at SF as well. Part of the answer depends on what we need from the position, because with Seth, Ryan, Mason, and Rasheed, my guess is we don't really need a prolific scorer at SF. Thus my view is all we need at SF is someone to defend well, pull down some rebounds and score if unguarded. I don't think it's a stretch to think Alex can provide all that, and probably Amile as well. It remains to be seen if either of them can guard those quick Terrance Ross types, but if they can't in a particular game I'm hoping that Rasheed will be able to do so. And if Alex (or Amile) can provide an extra scoring threat, so much the better.

I'm less concerned about this question than the PG question.

As for 2013-2014, there's a lot of uncertainty. That's understandable, as we still have quite a bit of recruiting going on. Hopefully we land another big guy to rotate with Marshall, Jefferson, and Hairston.

I agree, another big man for 2013-14 would be nice. Although with all the wings we'll probably have in 2013-14, it's quite possible that Alex Murphy will play most of his minutes at PF, and a Marshall/Amile/Alex/Josh big man rotation should be good enough, assuming Amile gains some muscle weight between now and then.

I'd also like to land Hood and have Andre come back for his senior year (we'll be very young and inexperienced without him). If we can also grab one of the plethora of high school wings we seem to be recruiting, great, but to me that's gravy.

[Greg_Newton]

Basically, PG and SF are the only question marks for this coming year. We have potential answers at both spots. It's just a matter of those guys stepping up.

This pretty much sums it up for me.

I agree with what most of what Kedsy said, but I'd add that I think the SF position is, in reality, much less of a question mark than the PG position, and that I don't think Murphy and Jefferson should even be in the same conversation when it comes to skill set and readiness to play SF. Murphy is a stud, a natural wing, and has proven to be a very solid player (albeit not on the big stage) for the past year against top-level college talent. I'm very high on Jefferson too, but he's not a natural wing at all, and is nowhere near as physically ready or experienced at this level. IMO, whether it's acknowledged at this point or not, the SF position is Murphy's, barring something major, and Sulaimon/Jefferson/Hairston will get however many leftover minutes there are, depending on the game.

PG is the most crucial question in my mind. Ideally, it seems like Cook and Thornton should be fine; Cook will hopefully be primed for a breakout year, and Thornton is a steady upperclassman who is basically a 6th-year player for all intents and purposes. In a vacuum, it seems like a good combo to complement the rest of the squad.

But then there's defense, and there's Sulaimon. Playing either Cook or Thornton next to Curry for long stretches could be dangerous, and Sulaimon has to get minutes somewhere. He'll be the first (and really, IMO, only) backup on the wing, and maybe that will be enough. But if he's getting minutes at PG while both Cook and Thornton sit, it would be a pretty huge shakeup. It would be our best defensive lineup, but is it worth playing him out of position and benching two veteran PGs? And would K actually do that?

[BD80]

I expect Seth to play 30 to 35 mpg. If I'm right, Rasheed will get only 5 to 10 mpg at SG. Since Rasheed has a pretty good chance at 25 or so mpg, that means he'll have to get those fill-in minutes at either PG or SF or, more likely, both. ... Although I believe Rasheed is going to play 5 to 10 minutes at SF as well. ...

Perhaps we can get predictions as to how many minutes each poster will spend posting about how many minutes players will get in the coming year, as every thread devolves into such a discussion.

I'll start: 1/2 minute.

[NSDukeFan]

Perhaps we can get predictions as to how many minutes each poster will spend posting about how many minutes players will get in the coming year, as every thread devolves into such a discussion.

I'll start: 1/2 minute.

I'll go next: 95 minutes.

[Indoor66]

Perhaps we can get predictions as to how many minutes each poster will spend posting about how many minutes players will get in the coming year, as every thread devolves into such a discussion.

I'll start: 1/2 minute.

I'm waiting for the 64 line chart with 14 columns setting forth multiple permutations of the minutes' distribution.

[licc85]

Here's how I see it happening:

Starters: Minutes
PG: Tyler Thornton 20
SG: Seth Curry 32
SF: Alex Murphy 25
PF: Ryan Kelly 32
C: Mason Plumlee 30

Bench
6: Quinn Cook 20
7: Rasheed Sulaimon 20
8: Amile Jefferson 10
9: Josh Hairston 5
10: Marshall Plumlee 5
11: Todd Zafirovski 1

I still think Tyler is going to get more starts than Quinn just because he's really one of the best leaders on the team. His vocal presence on the court as well as his effort and hustle are extremely undervalued by the average fan. I'll even admit that he's probably overrated defensively. He really can't stay in front of guards with elite quickness, but really, ask any Duke fan who knows what's up and they will tell you you that TT is a solid player who you won't mind being out there. Good things happen when he's in the lineup, and come crunch time, I think it will be TT and not Quinn on the floor.

Quinn is going to be really good, but I just don't know if he's quite ready to run the team just yet. Last year was really a lost year as far as his development because of how much he was limited by his bad knee. We all want him to become the next Bobby Hurley, but he needs to really make strides on defense and become more assertive. When he was playing well last year, it was like we had Kyrie back, but when he was struggling, it was ugly. This is probably going to be Quinn's show to run next year. I think he and Tyler will split minutes (and possibly starts) evenly.

Murph is going to be special. He has all the tools to become something similar to Kyle Singler. His game is obviously very similar, and he is going to be a matchup nightmare. Whether or not he plays as hard or with as much heart as the old #12 remains to be seen, but I've been hearing some great things about his performances with the Finnish national team. I think he will be a slightly more polished scorer but not quite as good a rebounder as Kyle. I look for him to be a double digit scorer right away, with a great chance to be a 4-year starter, as I believe Coach K has alluded to several times.

Ryan and Mason are known quantities at this point. I just hope that they can really become more consistent this year. Ryan has a tendency to disappear for long stretches, and he really needs to improve his defense, but if he can put it all together, he's really one of our best weapons on offense. Mason needs to develop that jump hook that he displayed early last year. He had a few dominating games early in the season and then sort of reverted back to old Mason towards the end once Austin took over the team. We need to feed him the ball early in games to establish him down low. He will be a hard cover for many opposing teams because of his size, and with his court vision, we should get plenty of open 3s from kickouts.

Rasheed is the real wild card for me. He has the potential to be the best, most complete player on this roster when its all said and done, and could definitely challenge for a starting spot. I haven't watched him play that much, but he seems to really get after it on D and has a smooth stroke from deep. I don't know how good his ball handling is right now, but if he can develop some handles to go along with his ability to score from anywhere on the court, I could see him being an all timer at Duke, provided he stays 3 or 4 years.

[licc85]

But if he's getting minutes at PG while both Cook and Thornton sit, it would be a pretty huge shakeup. It would be our best defensive lineup, but is it worth playing him out of position and benching two veteran PGs? And would K actually do that?

Yes. Coach K always goes with the best defensive lineup if he has a choice. He's addicted to ball pressure. See Chris Duhon and Elliot Williams. Plus, he wouldn't REALLY be playing out of position. He's a combo guard, and many scouts seem to think that he's very capable of playing the point. Not to mention he might also an upgrade on offense over TT and Quinn as well. Sulaimon could be the starter by the end of the year . . .

[Indoor66]

Don't sell Marshall short.

[DukieInBrasil]

Don't sell Marshall short.

That's an awfully tall order.

[BD80]

Don't sell Marshall short.

That's an awfully tall order.

The height of irony?

[Native]

The height of irony?

I'm sure it's no small feet.

[elvis14]

Yes. Coach K always goes with the best defensive lineup if he has a choice. He's addicted to ball pressure. See Chris Duhon and Elliot Williams. Plus, he wouldn't REALLY be playing out of position. He's a combo guard, and many scouts seem to think that he's very capable of playing the point. Not to mention he might also an upgrade on offense over TT and Quinn as well. Sulaimon could be the starter by the end of the year . . .

Yes, but what if he starts with QC with Seth coming off the bench as a 6th man/scorer? That (and guys playing well enough to limit TT's minutes) would be huge. Note that in order for that to happen it would mean that QC and Rasheed are both playing really well (which is a great thing) and can both provide on the ball pressure (something Seth and TT struggle with).

I'm really looking forward to seeing MP3, Murphy, Jefferson and Rasheed play. It's always cool to see what the new guys can do. I'm also looking forward to the others, but it's always cool to see the newbies get after it and see how well they play with the others.

[Kedsy]

Yes, but what if he starts with QC with Seth coming off the bench as a 6th man/scorer?

Highly unlikely. Seth is a senior and Coach K has already said he expects Seth to be our leading scorer. Doesn't sound like a 6th man role is in under consideration.

[Chris Randolph]

I try not to get over involved in 'looking ahead' when 'ahead' is still quite-a-ways down the road. But with the signing of Amile and announcement of Hood transferring to Duke, I've started to get excited again for the prospects of the upcoming season. I too hold a strong belief that Hood will benefit Duke in the '12-13 season tremendously in practice. I wish he could play this season but he will be the best practice player in the country, no doubt.

My biggest complaint(s) about this past season was a lack of leadership and what seemed to be focus and maturity throughout the season. Which doesn't surprise me that the squad lacked those things when I look back. All those guys were brand new to the "leadership" role and were used to having a Scheyer or Singler or Thomas or Zoubs or Smith to turn to. I loved Miles but he just wasn't that kind of player, which is fine. All that said I really look forward to the seniors taking control of the team in '12-13. I assume they've learned a lot about themselves and the team from last season and will be able to flourish in a senior leadership role. I think we have the talent to have a great great season but not the most talent in the country or maybe conference. And when that is the case you need the intangibles to put you over the top. I think the 2012-13 team will make that a strength and have a special special season.

[BD80]

Highly unlikely. Seth is a senior and Coach K has already said he expects Seth to be our leading scorer. Doesn't sound like a 6th man role is in under consideration.

Maybe he would prefer setting himself up to be the #4 pick in the draft to being a starter.

[elvis14]

Highly unlikely. Seth is a senior and Coach K has already said he expects Seth to be our leading scorer. Doesn't sound like a 6th man role is in under consideration.

I know, but a man can dream. If Rasheed and QC were playing well enough for the Seth to be the 6th man, holy crap would we be good

@BD80, Seth could be the next Waiters. Either that or Cleveland will trade 3-9 picks to draft him

[COYS]

Here's an optimistic forecast for one of our guys who promises to have a bigger role next season. It's an article that Ken Pomeroy did for ESPN. Unfortunately, it's behind the insider wall, but definitely worth a read for those who want to take a look . . . heck, even the preview of the article will reveal enough for Duke fans =).

[CDu]

Here's an optimistic forecast for one of our guys who promises to have a bigger role next season. It's an article that Ken Pomeroy did for ESPN. Unfortunately, it's behind the insider wall, but definitely worth a read for those who want to take a look . . . heck, even the preview of the article will reveal enough for Duke fans =).

Nice that Pomeroy is supportive of Cook, though he misses wildly with one comment: Rivers wasn't the reason Cook was limited to 12mpg.

[licc85]

Here's an optimistic forecast for one of our guys who promises to have a bigger role next season. It's an article that Ken Pomeroy did for ESPN. Unfortunately, it's behind the insider wall, but definitely worth a read for those who want to take a look . . . heck, even the preview of the article will reveal enough for Duke fans =).

Just read the article . . hey, I'm pretty excited that someone as respected as Pomeroy projects this type of improvement for Quinn . . . but I don't know about Quinn becoming an All-American this year, that's a bit far-fetched for a 5'11" sophomore with below average athleticism. I just don't ever see him becoming an elite defensive player, but as far as year 2, I think we can reasonably expect him to become one of the better ball handlers and distributors in the ACC, average 5-6 assists a game, average less than 1.5 turnovers a game, and become a capable outside shooter (is 35% from 3 too much to ask?). Give me that, with improvement from year to year, and I think we're totally set for the PG position for the next 3 years.

TL;DR: Crossing my fingers for a poor man's Bobby Hurley.

[COYS]

Just read the article . . hey, I'm pretty excited that someone as respected as Pomeroy projects this type of improvement for Quinn . . . but I don't know about Quinn becoming an All-American this year, that's a bit far-fetched for a 5'11" sophomore with below average athleticism. I just don't ever see him becoming an elite defensive player, but as far as year 2, I think we can reasonably expect him to become one of the better ball handlers and distributors in the ACC, average 5-6 assists a game, average less than 1.5 turnovers a game, and become a capable outside shooter (is 35% from 3 too much to ask?). Give me that, with improvement from year to year, and I think we're totally set for the PG position for the next 3 years.

TL;DR: Crossing my fingers for a poor man's Bobby Hurley.

I think a healthy Cook probably does not qualify as someone with below average athleticism. He's faster than most point guards and is very quick with the ball. I think his biggest limiting factor on the defensive end (and to a certain extent on the offensive end) is his below average height and length. That being said, improved quickness after an offseason of recovery and development should make him a more capable defender. At the very least, I think we'll get a better look at the player Cook really is/will become this year than last. I'm hopeful that we'll all be pleasantly surprised.