Page 21 of 28 FirstFirst ... 111920212223 ... LastLast
Results 401 to 420 of 550
  1. #401
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Roxboro, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil View Post
    So now that the season is over, I see both a lot of unbridled optimism and unreasonable pessimism on this thread for next year's team. Even if we don't get any of the 3-5 targets (if you include potential transfers that don't have to sit out a year) and Mason leaves, a weak ACC is going to allow us to go at least 10-6, and get into the tourney. That's not our standard, but if everything goes wrong, we may be looking at 2007. If everything goes right, we could be looking at likeable, one year away, team like 2000, 2003, or perhaps even better.

    But back to the subject -- I am having a hard time getting excited about Murphy, Mar. Plumlee and Gbinije as difference makers next year. We really needed help in some areas this year, including depth on the front line. We are in an era where if freshmen can contribute, they play, and play significantly. Even at Duke. Ryan Kelly is the only guy I can recall who went from a non-factor his freshman year to a significant contributor (and arguably a top 3 player) in later years. Seriously, go back and look at our rosters. I am sure I am missing someone, but if freshman do not play, they tend to be bench players throughout their careers, or at the very best starters with limited minutes. Maybe I'll give Murphy a bit of a pass since he came in early, but I think we need to be careful projecting too much on these 3 guys. If they were difference makers, they probably would have played this year.
    I don't think anyone has said that Marshall or Gbinijie would be difference makers next year. If Mason leaves then Marshall would have to take on a bigger role, but no one has said he would put up Mason's numbers or even close to it. The reason for optimism regarding Murphy is because of how Coach K has talked about him and how he seemed to have a starting spot last year before suffering a concussion. But this whole thread is speculation about what we think or want to happen next year. I think Murphy starts at the 3 next year but I certainly could be wrong.

  2. #402
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.

    updated attrition

    Here is an updated team attrition and addition table for all ACC teams.
    teams.JPG

  3. #403
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Austin, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by nocilla View Post
    I don't think anyone has said that Marshall or Gbinijie would be difference makers next year. If Mason leaves then Marshall would have to take on a bigger role, but no one has said he would put up Mason's numbers or even close to it. The reason for optimism regarding Murphy is because of how Coach K has talked about him and how he seemed to have a starting spot last year before suffering a concussion. But this whole thread is speculation about what we think or want to happen next year. I think Murphy starts at the 3 next year but I certainly could be wrong.
    I've certainly seen some people projecting things onto Marshall, Alex and Mike in other threads (and to an extent in this thread), but perhaps that's the unbridled optimism I was talking about. Perhaps I am the unreasonable pessimist. And I'll defer to K on Alex, but if he is going to be that good, well... we certainly could have used even 70% of that this year.

    But as I considered how each might help us not only next year but throughout their 4 years, I racked my brain to think of a player in the last 15 years that averaged less than 10 mpg as a freshman or was redshirted that ended up being an impact player before they left the program -- other than Ryan Kelly. Maybe that is changing starting with Kelly, because it is something that, for instance, KU has done really well and it has paid off this year (Withey from end of bench to defensive POY in the Big XII, Thomas Robinson from end of bench to 6th man to consensus All-American). Simply an observation.

    Edited to add: OK, Zoubek, but he almost ran out of time.

  4. #404
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil View Post
    I've certainly seen some people projecting things onto Marshall, Alex and Mike in other threads (and to an extent in this thread), but perhaps that's the unbridled optimism I was talking about. Perhaps I am the unreasonable pessimist. And I'll defer to K on Alex, but if he is going to be that good, well... we certainly could have used even 70% of that this year.

    But as I considered how each might help us not only next year but throughout their 4 years, I racked my brain to think of a player in the last 15 years that averaged less than 10 mpg as a freshman or was redshirted that ended up being an impact player before they left the program -- other than Ryan Kelly. Maybe that is changing starting with Kelly, because it is something that, for instance, KU has done really well and it has paid off this year (Withey from end of bench to defensive POY in the Big XII, Thomas Robinson from end of bench to 6th man to consensus All-American). Simply an observation.

    Edited to add: OK, Zoubek, but he almost ran out of time.
    While I agree with your historical analysis regarding playing time for frosh and their future role on the team, is it possible that part of this phenomenon was caused by Coach K's decision to almost never use all of Duke's available scholarship slots in the early/mid-2000's? While players who played as little as Mike did this season have rarely gone on to be stars, players like Mike are also rarely sitting behind so many other scholarship players. Similarly, players of Kelly's caliber are rarely sitting behind 4 other scholarship bigs.

  5. #405
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    The skill just isn't there....he hasn't even shown flashes of it, he's a one dimensional player...that sucks to say b/c I thought he was going to be a huge star...but it's not there, hopefully he can finish his Sr year strong and stay consistent throughout it but those expecting him to come back with these new wrinkles to his game are going to be be disappointed
    I disagree with this on two levels. First of all, we have seen flashes of the skill, and toward the end of the season he did the shot fake, one or two dribble, pull-up thing several times. More importantly, I don't think he has to add new wrinkles to be a game-changing player. He has to maintain his focus on both sides of the ball and convince his teammates and coaches to keep him in mind as a top option on offense. If his teammates look for him and he gets the ball the moment he gets open he can almost win games by himself. Who else on the team can we say that about?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kfanarmy View Post
    I'm not sure it is a physical or confidence issue...my personal opinion is that he turned a little green when AR started getting so much attention in the final third of the season, and quit playing hard...just my opinion....
    Totally disagree with this. I often watch Andre specifically to see if he's cutting hard or just standing around, and against FSU and Lehigh he was moving constantly. He just didn't get the ball. He never quit playing hard.

  6. #406
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    While I agree with your historical analysis regarding playing time for frosh and their future role on the team, is it possible that part of this phenomenon was caused by Coach K's decision to almost never use all of Duke's available scholarship slots in the early/mid-2000's? While players who played as little as Mike did this season have rarely gone on to be stars, players like Mike are also rarely sitting behind so many other scholarship players. Similarly, players of Kelly's caliber are rarely sitting behind 4 other scholarship bigs.
    Great point. If we fill all 13 scholarships this coming season, it will be the first time I can remember that happening. We only rarely get as high as 12, and in those years (e.g., 2008, 1998) our rotation seems to get a little longer.

  7. #407
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Great point. If we fill all 13 scholarships this coming season, it will be the first time I can remember that happening. We only rarely get as high as 12, and in those years (e.g., 2008, 1998) our rotation seems to get a little longer.
    And even then, it doesn't always get THAT much longer. In 1998, we had some fairly decent talent that got marginalized in one of those years (Ricky Price, Domzalski, Chappell). And Brand missed half the year with injury, Price was suspended early, and Nate James was redshirted with an injury. So it wasn't like we really had 12 guys actively competing for minutes. At most it was 11, and that was only very early on (when James was healthy and before Price came back) and at the very end of the season (when Brand got healthy).

    In 2009, we definitely went deeper with 9 guys getting ~12+ minutes per game and Miles and Pocius getting spot minutes as well. That's certainly been the anomaly. But your point is valid - we've almost never had so much depth that we were in a position to not play a really useful player (in part probably because Coach K has tried to avoid "recruiting over" a player).

  8. #408
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Guessing starting lineups is always a big off-season exercise ... even though K often uses a variety of lineups.

    That said, I've been amazed reading this thread how little regard most of you have for Tyler Thornton. Even if YOU don't like him, it's obvious that Coach K loves him. Do you ever listen to K talk about him? Before you elevate Cook past TT, consider who is making the call.

    After that, I guess the biggest gripe I'd have with most of your would be leaving Rasheed Suliaman out of the equation. He'll be the team's best on-the-ball defender from day one. And while he's not the explosive offensive player that Austin was, he's a very good one and probably a more mature all-around player.

    I think any potentil lineup starts with Thornton, Curry, Kelly and probably Sulaiman (unless Muhammad comes). Agree that Ziegler would be in the mix (1) if he comes and (2) if he wins his appeal to be eiligible. That's two big ifs and even if both work out, no guarantee that he beats out the much-more-talented (if less experienced) Sulaiman.

    I very much doubt that Dawkins is in the starting mix. I see kids improve over the course of their career, but when a kid makes so little improment in his first three years, hard to see him suddenly doing it as a senior. Cook is a longshot as long as Thornton is here, but he does have more of a chance to make a big improvement after his freshman year.

    For fifth starter, Mason is a lock if he returns. Otherwise, Murphy and Hairston seem the best bets ... although don't rule out MP3. I'd feel that way even if Parker or Jefferson come ... it would be awhile before either is in the mix for a starting job.
    Assuming that there are no other major developments regarding personnel, I think your lineup projections are probably in the right direction. However, if Rasheed is as good from day 1 as you project, might he negate some of the benefits of having Tyler in the starting 5? He could come in and spearhead the defense alongside Curry with Alex/Mike/Andre, Alex/Josh/Ryan, and Ryan/Marshall filling in the other spots on the floor. This would allow us more offensive firepower, most likely, and good size on defense. Otherwise, unless Rasheed is able to carry a significant scoring burden, a lineup with Tyler, Seth, and Rasheed would be seriously lacking in outside shooting.

    Also, regarding Quinn, Coach K gave Quinn a chance to start this year, as a freshman, despite the fact that he was behind a bit due to his injury and was still a step slow. He couldn't quite lock down the starting job, mostly because his defense wasn't quite ready to go. And then, as Coach K trimmed the rotation down, his minutes hovered between 8-10, although he STILL got into the big games. Clearly the staff has faith in his abilities. If his defense improves (which I suspect it will with a real offseason of improving his strength, conditioning, and quickness) and he gets another shot at holding down the PG spot, i suspect he just might keep it. And note that I'm not knocking Tyler. I know and understand why K values him. That being said, he is far from untouchable in the starting five. He didn't start to begin the season. He earned a starting role when K went away from the Curry, Austin, Andre backcourt. He lost it again, briefly, when Quinn had a good stretch. Yes, he held it down for the rest of the season, but his spot is definitely not untouchable, especially if the players around him improve and he doesn't develop a more consistent shot.

  9. #409
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Austin, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    While I agree with your historical analysis regarding playing time for frosh and their future role on the team, is it possible that part of this phenomenon was caused by Coach K's decision to almost never use all of Duke's available scholarship slots in the early/mid-2000's? While players who played as little as Mike did this season have rarely gone on to be stars, players like Mike are also rarely sitting behind so many other scholarship players. Similarly, players of Kelly's caliber are rarely sitting behind 4 other scholarship bigs.
    Good point. I'll be interested to see how the future plays out in this regard. Future success in college basketball is going to require a synergy between 1 and done NBA type players with the development of the 4 year role players that had little to no impact as freshmen. When teams rely on too many underclassmen that aren't early entry candidates, you get results like Duke in 2007 and Texas this year. I would love to see any of our current freshmen that are still with the team, redshirt or otherwise, make an all-ACC team before they leave. That is inconsistent with recent history based on early returns of our freshmen, but as you note, our scholarship usage has changed as well. Let's hope it has positive player development results.

  10. #410

    Good Post

    Quote Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil View Post
    I've certainly seen some people projecting things onto Marshall, Alex and Mike in other threads (and to an extent in this thread), but perhaps that's the unbridled optimism I was talking about. Perhaps I am the unreasonable pessimist. And I'll defer to K on Alex, but if he is going to be that good, well... we certainly could have used even 70% of that this year.

    But as I considered how each might help us not only next year but throughout their 4 years, I racked my brain to think of a player in the last 15 years that averaged less than 10 mpg as a freshman or was redshirted that ended up being an impact player before they left the program -- other than Ryan Kelly. Maybe that is changing starting with Kelly, because it is something that, for instance, KU has done really well and it has paid off this year (Withey from end of bench to defensive POY in the Big XII, Thomas Robinson from end of bench to 6th man to consensus All-American). Simply an observation.

    Edited to add: OK, Zoubek, but he almost ran out of time.
    I share your thoughts about Alex. Clearly if he was seen as very capable, we would have benfitted by his addition to the lineup this past season. I expect a good and improving player but not a major star. I hope he surprises me.

    Michael should also improve with another season so that is a positive. Marshall is likely to require a year or two of playing time to reach where Mason is today. If Mason stays, we have a solid front court. Without him I can't see us as being improved inside. Even a good freshman big is unlikely to be as good as Mason is right now.

    As far as the guard play, in losing Austin, we have lost our most effective scorer and a good defender who was also 6'4". We shouldn't expect Rasheed to make up for his loss, but his size and length may at least give us a reasonably good defender, who will have to learn and adapt to the Duke defensive scheme. In Seth, Tyler and Quinn we have three good guards who do not compliment each other well on the floor. If Quinn can improve his defensive and develop more accuracy from outside, he may well earn the starting PG slot. Andre really had a great opportunity to make an impact at the wing, but failed to blossom. Can he with another year? That is a big unknown at this point.

    My view is without Mason, this team will be weaker than our past season. The addition of a highly rated wing would help as would a power forward with bulk. We should know more in the next couple of weeks, so the current speculation is just that.

    I believe the coaching staff knows far more than any of us and they are working hard to fill in the gaps on the team. That's all we can expect them to do and all i can do is to wish them the best of luck.

  11. #411
    Quote Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil View Post
    I racked my brain to think of a player in the last 15 years that averaged less than 10 mpg as a freshman or was redshirted that ended up being an impact player before they left the program -- other than Ryan Kelly.
    Miles?

    And if I recall correctly, Lee Melchionni was a starter for at least part of his junior year (don't know if that makes him an "impact player").

  12. #412
    Quote Originally Posted by wk2109 View Post
    Miles?

    And if I recall correctly, Lee Melchionni was a starter for at least part of his junior year (don't know if that makes him an "impact player").
    Yeah, I think it definitely depends on your definition of impact player. But the underlying point of that previous post still stands: guys don't usually go from less than 10mpg as freshman to become impact players as sophomores. I can't think of any in recent memory besides Kelly. And even that's probably pushing it - Kelly was decent as a sophomore but far from a big impact guy. Granted, the circumstances are different here for Murphy (could have been playing high school ball so he chose to redshirt) and Marshall (clearly behind the three upperclassmen in the center rotation so he wasn't going to play). But it's a relevant point to consider.

  13. #413
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Austin, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, I think it definitely depends on your definition of impact player. But the underlying point of that previous post still stands: guys don't usually go from less than 10mpg as freshman to become impact players as sophomores. I can't think of any in recent memory besides Kelly. And even that's probably pushing it - Kelly was decent as a sophomore but far from a big impact guy. Granted, the circumstances are different here for Murphy (could have been playing high school ball so he chose to redshirt) and Marshall (clearly behind the three upperclassmen in the center rotation so he wasn't going to play). But it's a relevant point to consider.
    I guess I was thinking impact player at all. Melchionni was a nice bench player. Miles started several games his frosh year (although admittedly his minutes dwindled as the year went on). He might fit, I guess, as he had some nice games in his career.

    But when I say impact, I'm thinking all-ACC. Again, I'm using a guy like Thomas Robinson as an example. A recruit that waits his turn, is developed, and becomes all-conference by the time he leaves. Maybe that is rare across the board, and KU is the exception. I was trying to think of a Carolina example and couldn't really come up with one either. But it still drives home the argument -- failure to get any reasonable burn as a freshman is a not a good omen for a player to be an all-conference type. Maybe this is plainly obvious, but if we are recruiting guys we KNOW can't contribute as freshmen, and inability to contribute as freshmen is an indicator of a player's ceiling. . . well it's just something to think about.

    And I do think the increased schollies argument is a good point, and perhaps we will start to see more end of bench to all conference development with a filled out roster.

  14. #414
    On the plus side, people in the lighter shade of cool have their toes wayyyyy over the ledge right now.

    People "in the know" on the IC boards are saying that Marshall, Henson, Barnes AND McAdoo are all leaving. One can only imagine just how sweet that meltdown will be.

    Hot tip: invest heavily in "shadenfreude." Expect that word to be flying off the shelves in the upcoming weeks...

    s.i.

  15. #415
    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleIrish View Post
    On the plus side, people in the lighter shade of cool have their toes wayyyyy over the ledge right now.

    People "in the know" on the IC boards are saying that Marshall, Henson, Barnes AND McAdoo are all leaving. One can only imagine just how sweet that meltdown will be.

    Hot tip: invest heavily in "shadenfreude." Expect that word to be flying off the shelves in the upcoming weeks...

    s.i.
    That would be great news. I would prefer McAdoo leaving over Barnes. I think McAdoo will be a better player than Barnes.

  16. #416
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I agree with you that Curry is being underestimated. I'll reiterate what I said just above your post. I think it comes down to minimizing weaknesses. Curry has, among the returning backcourt players, the fewest weaknesses in his game. Thornton (offense), Cook (defense), and Dawkins (defense, dribbling, and focus) have glaring areas for improvement. Sulaimon has no experience in the Duke system or against college competition. I think that the extent to which each of these players can show the most improvement in their areas for improvement will determine who joins Curry in the lineup.
    Well, the bolded is an interesting statement. In my view, the major, historical weakness for the current roster is defense. On the one hand, you've got Curry, Cook, and Dawkins, who all struggle mightily to stay in front of dribblers, and simply aren't that quick laterally. On the other hand, you've got Sulaimon, Gbinije and Murphy, who are all long, and all very quick laterally (Murphy probably the slowest of the three, but faster than Dawkins, from watching him last summer). However, all three of the latter are completely unproven underclassman, and aren't the offensive weapons that the former three are. Thornton is the one "in between", who is a great team defender but questionable on-ball pressurer, and a solid all-around player.

    Personally, I'd like to see defense come first on the priority sheet, over offense, experience, whatever - get back to basic Duke basketball, whoever steps up in that area gets to play. But as you say, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

  17. #417
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg_Newton View Post
    Well, the bolded is an interesting statement. In my view, the major, historical weakness for the current roster is defense. On the one hand, you've got Curry, Cook, and Dawkins, who all struggle mightily to stay in front of dribblers, and simply aren't that quick laterally. On the other hand, you've got Sulaimon, Gbinije and Murphy, who are all long, and all very quick laterally (Murphy probably the slowest of the three, but faster than Dawkins, from watching him last summer). However, all three of the latter are completely unproven underclassman, and aren't the offensive weapons that the former three are. Thornton is the one "in between", who is a great team defender but questionable on-ball pressurer, and a solid all-around player.

    Personally, I'd like to see defense come first on the priority sheet, over offense, experience, whatever - get back to basic Duke basketball, whoever steps up in that area gets to play. But as you say, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
    I agree. I played a lot of ball, and D was my forte and something I pay much attention to when watching games and players. Defense takes continual work and intensity, and a will to prevent the offensive player from doing what he would like to do. Some few players love playing that side of the ball, but it is getting harder to find those players. Rarely have I seen a Duke team at this lower level of overall Defensive skill and will, individually and collectively. When one looks back at the pedigree of Battier, James, etc., this team rarely imposed its defensive will and certainly was not intimidating in that area. Lateral quickness is also extremely important. My hope is that Cook makes a bigger improvement than can usually be expected in that area, due to much better ankle health and recapturing of full capacities. I never saw clips of him from high school, can anybody here vouch for his lateral capacities pre-injury? And yes indeed, Gbinije, Murphy and Sulaimon are my main hope for bringing the quickness and defensive intensity back into the Duke program.

  18. #418
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleIrish View Post
    On the plus side, people in the lighter shade of cool have their toes wayyyyy over the ledge right now.

    People "in the know" on the IC boards are saying that Marshall, Henson, Barnes AND McAdoo are all leaving. One can only imagine just how sweet that meltdown will be.

    Hot tip: invest heavily in "shadenfreude." Expect that word to be flying off the shelves in the upcoming weeks...

    s.i.
    I keep hearing this, but so far I haven't even seen anything concrete. Maybe this is the calm before the storm, but I wouldn't be shocked if they all returned. Just seems odd nobody has even filed. Is Marshall trying to convince everyone to return?

  19. #419
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    I keep hearing this, but so far I haven't even seen anything concrete. Maybe this is the calm before the storm, but I wouldn't be shocked if they all returned. Just seems odd nobody has even filed. Is Marshall trying to convince everyone to return?
    Why is it odd? Their season has been over for 3 days.

  20. #420
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    I keep hearing this, but so far I haven't even seen anything concrete. Maybe this is the calm before the storm, but I wouldn't be shocked if they all returned. Just seems odd nobody has even filed. Is Marshall trying to convince everyone to return?
    Austin Rivers didn't declare for more than a week after his season ended, so I don't think it's odd that the UNC guys haven't declared yet.

Similar Threads

  1. 2013 Duke Recruiting Thread
    By rotogod00 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 945
    Last Post: 06-14-2013, 08:22 PM
  2. Duke Football 2013 Recruiting Thread
    By pbc2 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 129
    Last Post: 02-06-2013, 03:59 PM
  3. 2012 and 2013 predictions
    By norra5 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 09-15-2011, 01:37 PM
  4. 2013 recruit Matt Jones has been offered
    By JasonEvans in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 30
    Last Post: 07-19-2011, 11:26 AM
  5. Real Life Ivan brothers, Class of 2012 and 2013
    By Welcome2DaSlopes in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 05-03-2010, 08:06 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •