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  1. #321
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Sorry for the lineup posts, guys. Had a bit too much celebratory wine in me from last night and got too excited. You understand.

    As for Thornton vs Cook, I think Thornton has the higher upside. I was all over the Cook bandwagon early in the season but the more I watched, the more I came to believe that he's too small without nearly enough quickness to make up for it. Against top level competition, that is. He has the widest gap between "performance against bad teams" and "performance against good teams" on the roster. Heck, he might be Duke's best player against bad teams because when he's not physically overmatched, his very good point guard instincts shine through. Against good teams, the instincts are for naught because he can't beat people off the dribble and gets swallowed up by the defender so he doesn't have vision to pass. And Cook's defense - oy! I also think he forces up bad perimeter shots because he wants the defense to overplay him for that (if he actually had made them) so he can regain an advantage off the dribble.

    Like others, I would love to have a very good traditional playmaking point guard. But unfortunately, I don't think Duke has one on the roster. I'm hoping Thornton can continue to improve his shot and eventually become a very good albeit non-playmaking point guard who takes care of the ball, makes shots, defends, and leads. He's the starter for the next two years, imo. And Duke needs to recruit another point guard with good physical talent.

  2. #322
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    boston, ma
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Sorry for the lineup posts, guys. Had a bit too much celebratory wine in me from last night and got too excited. You understand.

    As for Thornton vs Cook, I think Thornton has the higher upside. I was all over the Cook bandwagon early in the season but the more I watched, the more I came to believe that he's too small without nearly enough quickness to make up for it. Against top level competition, that is. He has the widest gap between "performance against bad teams" and "performance against good teams" on the roster. Heck, he might be Duke's best player against bad teams because when he's not physically overmatched, his very good point guard instincts shine through. Against good teams, the instincts are for naught because he can't beat people off the dribble and gets swallowed up by the defender so he doesn't have vision to pass. And Cook's defense - oy! I also think he forces up bad perimeter shots because he wants the defense to overplay him for that (if he actually had made them) so he can regain an advantage off the dribble.

    Like others, I would love to have a very good traditional playmaking point guard. But unfortunately, I don't think Duke has one on the roster. I'm hoping Thornton can continue to improve his shot and eventually become a very good albeit non-playmaking point guard who takes care of the ball, makes shots, defends, and leads. He's the starter for the next two years, imo. And Duke needs to recruit another point guard with good physical talent.
    You do realize Quinn is still a freshman coming off a knee injury that shelved him for the entire China trip and preseason right?

  3. #323
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Dayton, OH
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Sorry for the lineup posts, guys. Had a bit too much celebratory wine in me from last night and got too excited. You understand.

    As for Thornton vs Cook, I think Thornton has the higher upside. I was all over the Cook bandwagon early in the season but the more I watched, the more I came to believe that he's too small without nearly enough quickness to make up for it. Against top level competition, that is. He has the widest gap between "performance against bad teams" and "performance against good teams" on the roster. Heck, he might be Duke's best player against bad teams because when he's not physically overmatched, his very good point guard instincts shine through. Against good teams, the instincts are for naught because he can't beat people off the dribble and gets swallowed up by the defender so he doesn't have vision to pass. And Cook's defense - oy! I also think he forces up bad perimeter shots because he wants the defense to overplay him for that (if he actually had made them) so he can regain an advantage off the dribble.

    Like others, I would love to have a very good traditional playmaking point guard. But unfortunately, I don't think Duke has one on the roster. I'm hoping Thornton can continue to improve his shot and eventually become a very good albeit non-playmaking point guard who takes care of the ball, makes shots, defends, and leads. He's the starter for the next two years, imo. And Duke needs to recruit another point guard with good physical talent.
    I think Cook will be much quicker on both ends if he has a healthy offseason

  4. #324
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    As for Thornton vs Cook, I think Thornton has the higher upside. I was all over the Cook bandwagon early in the season but the more I watched, the more I came to believe that he's too small without nearly enough quickness to make up for it. Against top level competition, that is. He has the widest gap between "performance against bad teams" and "performance against good teams" on the roster. Heck, he might be Duke's best player against bad teams because when he's not physically overmatched, his very good point guard instincts shine through. Against good teams, the instincts are for naught because he can't beat people off the dribble and gets swallowed up by the defender so he doesn't have vision to pass. And Cook's defense - oy! I also think he forces up bad perimeter shots because he wants the defense to overplay him for that (if he actually had made them) so he can regain an advantage off the dribble.

    Like others, I would love to have a very good traditional playmaking point guard. But unfortunately, I don't think Duke has one on the roster. I'm hoping Thornton can continue to improve his shot and eventually become a very good albeit non-playmaking point guard who takes care of the ball, makes shots, defends, and leads. He's the starter for the next two years, imo. And Duke needs to recruit another point guard with good physical talent.
    As to your first paragraph, I have to disagree. Cook didn't have an opportunity, as a freshmen I might add, to show us what he can do. The knee injury certainly curtailed that so I'm more than willing to give him another season. Even so, the little we did get to see of him tells my eyeballs he has more upside than Thorton (God bless his soul). If we are in a position where we have to start Tyler the entire season next year I don't see us being any better than we were the last few weeks of this year. I love the kid's heart and his work ethic, but he's extrememly limited on the offensive end for a true point guard. I don't see him having any ability to turn the corner off the dribble, drive, and either finish or dish. I just don't see it at all. And while his shot was decent from 3 point land, it was pretty much a set shot. I think we need more from our point than that. He's a fine backup, but I'm hoping Quinn can become that "very good traditional playmaking point guard" you mentioned in your second paragraph. I certainly think he has the better chance of the two to become that. I'm praying he morphs into a slightly lesser version of Chris Duhon or William Avery. I realize that may be asking a lot, but if he doesn't I honestly don't see next year's squad (outside of picking up Shabazz and Parker) being in a realistic position to win four games in a row at the end of the year, much less six. I just think our greatest need is to have a guard who has full command of his dribble and can truly initiate the offense, even with quickness and pressure being applied from the outside by an opposing guard, and at the same time can be that strong defender who will keep his man in front of him. I believe Cook gives us the best shot at that type of player. And as you said, we don't have a PG coming in next year, so we'd all better keep our fingers crossed that someone on this year's team can develop those skills over the summer.

    Just my two cents.

  5. #325
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I put this in the optimism thread but it belongs here. My lineup for next year...

    Come to Duke, Bazz!

    30 Jr Thorn...................... ..[So Cook]
    25 Sr Curry......25 Fr Sulaimon......[Jr Dawkins]
    30 Fr Bazz.......10 So Gbinije........{Jr Zeigler}{waiver denied}
    30 Sr Kelly......10 Fr Amile..........Jr Hairston
    25 Sr Oriakhi......15 Fr Murphy........Fr MP3


    Sulaimon's going to be a stud and our 6th man.

    That team could get another 1 seed. Getting Bazz is the key.
    I'm very confused by this for several reasons:
    1. Why are some players in brackets?
    2. You have 14 players, which is a no-no (unless you assume someone gives up their scholarship for a year). Zeigler would count against our scholarship count even if he's ineligible next year.
    3. Why is Cook listed as effectively third string PG? If anything, I'd expect him to push for the starting spot. With a year's experience and health, I think he'll be pretty good.
    4. Why is Murphy listed as a C? He is by all accounts a SF/PF, but more SF than PF. I can't imagine he'd play a minute at C.

    I also suspect that it's a first-come, first-serve situation with one big and one wing. We won't be getting both Oriakhi and Jefferson, and we won't be getting both Zeigler and Muhammad.

  6. #326
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I'm very confused by this for several reasons:
    1. Why are some players in brackets?
    2. You have 14 players, which is a no-no (unless you assume someone gives up their scholarship for a year). Zeigler would count against our scholarship count even if he's ineligible next year.
    3. Why is Cook listed as effectively third string PG? If anything, I'd expect him to push for the starting spot. With a year's experience and health, I think he'll be pretty good.
    4. Why is Murphy listed as a C? He is by all accounts a SF/PF, but more SF than PF. I can't imagine he'd play a minute at C.

    I also suspect that it's a first-come, first-serve situation with one big and one wing. We won't be getting both Oriakhi and Jefferson, and we won't be getting both Zeigler and Muhammad.
    Too much wine on my part, CDu :-). I wouldn't concern yourself with that post.

  7. #327
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I'd be careful about drawing these kinds of parallels. Like Mark Twain says, history rhymes, not repeats.

    The 2007 team was not a good offensive team - but then it replaced Josh McRoberts with Kyle Singler in 2008, and Demarcus Nelson got healthy and made a great jump as an offensive player. If the 2013 team really does lose Rivers, Miles, and Mason, and only replaces them with Murphy, Marshall, and Rasheed... I'm not sure it's safe to assume that we're automatically going to get better on defense, or better overall.
    I'm not assuming we WILL be better. However, I do think it's likely that we will. We still return a lot of experienced players, which is important. In addition, we likely add to the rotation in areas of need. Alex and Mike G add size and quickness to the perimeter and versatility on defense. In addition, the staff has an offseason to reinvent how the personnel will interact. I used the 2007 team and the 2008 team as examples of how Coach K has taken a team that didn't function particularly well and transformed it into something radically different despite the fact that the personnel remained largely the same. I would be surprised if the (hopefully) better balance in terms of size at the 3 spots and the natural improvement of players from year to year doesn't result in a better looking defense next season. Offensively, we lose a lot in Mason and Austin (if they go). However, we actually aren't losing our most efficient players. Yes, we're losing the guy who was best at getting his own shot, which shouldn't be undervalued. However, we still return a very good core from which to build the offense. Again, if the returnees improve incrementally and we get a boost from say a more dynamic soph Quinn or more consistent shooting from Tyler, the offense doesn't fall of that far, if at all.

    I realize that this might seem overly optimistic. But based on coach K's track record, I would be surprised if A) the team doesn't score (coach K teams usually do, with the exception being 2007 which had nowhere near the experience of next year's team) and B) they don't defend better than last year (this year's team was the worst Duke defensive team in 10 years and I expect the staff to find some way to improve that).

  8. #328
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by tdrake51 View Post
    I think Cook will be much quicker on both ends if he has a healthy offseason
    +1 to this. On defense, I felt that Cook's biggest issue was either biting on fakes or being caught flat-footed while backing up on defense (he was particularly susceptible in transition). Even though he was still recovering from the injury, I thought he showed excellent quickness even when he was beaten . . . in fact, sometimes it was the reason he was beaten as he'd fall for a fake, quickly slide his feet to cut off what he thought was going to be the ballhandlers next move, only for this quick movement to take him entirely out of position. Quinn doesn't have Nolan or Duhon length, which means I doubt he ever becomes a lockdown defender at that level. Some guards will also be able to shoot over him. I do think we'll see him do a better job staying in front of people, though, as I doubt that quickness will an issue for him considering that he already showed plenty even coming off the injury.

    Offensively, Quinn needs to hit his open threes consistently. I think that if he had been capable of better defense this season, Quinn would have played a lot more because he already is a very good passer and an excellent ball handler. He's even a good finisher around the basket and has shown flashes of an amazing floater. It is my sincere hope that he improves enough on defense to be able to run the offense full-time next season.

  9. #329
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Roxboro, NC
    Right now, based on what we have for next year, I see the following lineup.

    PG - Thornton/Cook
    SG - Curry/Dawkins/Saluimon
    SF - Murphy/Gbinijie
    PF - Kelly/Hairston
    C - Mason/Marshall

    If this is what we end up with I will be happy and excited for next season. Of course it may still change though. The biggest difference is if Mason leaves. I think Marshall would start because of a glaring need for rebounds and then Kelly would move to C when Hairston comes in. But still a formidable team and I would still be excited.

  10. #330
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by nocilla View Post
    Right now, based on what we have for next year, I see the following lineup.

    PG - Thornton/Cook
    SG - Curry/Dawkins/Saluimon
    SF - Murphy/Gbinijie
    PF - Kelly/Hairston
    C - Mason/Marshall
    I just posted this exact same depth chart in the reasons for optimism thread. And there's a reason I put it there. With a reasonable level of development from Cook, some contribution from Sulaimon, Murphy and G coming in ready to fill the void we had this year at 3, and Mason coming back, we will have a very solid team that could compete for an ACC championship. That's a few ifs and a big "could", but the team you've got listed above is a lot more likely to end up top 2 in the ACC than mid-tier of the ACC.

  11. #331
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    In my view, the most likely outcome is that Mason Plumlee leaves. At that point, the best outcome would be for Bazz to commit and Duke to get Oriakhi as a transfer. That would put us here:

    PG - Thornton (Jr.) / Cook (So.)
    SG - Curry (Sr.) / Sulaimon (Fr.) / Dawkins (Sr.)
    SF - Shabazz Muhammad (Fr.) / Murphy (RS Fr.) / Gbinije (So.)
    PF - Kelly (Sr.) / Hairston (Jr.)
    C - Oriakhi (Sr.) / Marshall Plumlee (RS Fr.)

    Walk-on - Zafirovski (Sr.)

    Essentially, Oriakhi would replace Mason (and likely give the team better defense and worse offense than ole #5), Bazz would basically come in as Luol Deng 2.0, Curry and Kelly would be the senior leaders, Thornton and Cook would fight it out for the starting PG slot, and Murphy, Marshall and Sulaimon would be the primary bench guys. I don't see Dawkins, Gbinije or Hairston getting a ton of minutes with the above roster. That team could definitely win the ACC and compete for a national title.

    One other thing -- the outlook for the 2013-14 season would be strange. Duke is losing Curry, Dawkins, Kelly and Oriakhi, and also likely Bazz. That's four starters. So the recruiting for 2013 would have to be amped up considerably.

  12. #332
    Here's a game for all you posters out there who lament the holes in this year's roster. Pick any player in the country who was not ranked top five in his recruiting class, clone that player and put him on our roster. Who would have had the biggest impact?

    If you think our biggest weakness was our lack of an elite PG, you could pick Kendall Marshall (#25 in 2010). He certainly would have helped our assist to turnover ratio.

    If you think our biggest weakness was the lack of a good-sized wing forward, maybe you'd like Moe Harkless (#38 in 2011), who clearly had the type of size and athleticism many have been pining for.

    Or if you prefer that big post banger, Thomas Robinson (#28 in 2009) is out there, and nobody could say we were soft in the post.

    All of those guys would have made our team a lot better, of course, but I'm not sure any of them would have made a quantum impact (feel free to disagree). The guy I'd pick? Aaron Craft (unranked in 2010). I think with a game-changing defensive player like Craft, our whole team would have been different. I think, all of a sudden, the rest of the team plays better D, and probably better O. I think maybe we lose two or three games all season and would have a good change to still be playing right now.

    You may agree or disagree with me, or bring up players I haven't mentioned. My point is when we think about next year, if our defense picks up the rest is a lot less relevant. A player who doesn't seem like he should make that big a difference might make a huge difference. If you have certain pieces, other seemingly important missing pieces aren't so important.

    Or not. Just something to think about.

  13. #333
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Here's a game for all you posters out there who lament the holes in this year's roster. Pick any player in the country who was not ranked top five in his recruiting class, clone that player and put him on our roster. Who would have had the biggest impact?

    If you think our biggest weakness was our lack of an elite PG, you could pick Kendall Marshall (#25 in 2010). He certainly would have helped our assist to turnover ratio.

    If you think our biggest weakness was the lack of a good-sized wing forward, maybe you'd like Moe Harkless (#38 in 2011), who clearly had the type of size and athleticism many have been pining for.

    Or if you prefer that big post banger, Thomas Robinson (#28 in 2009) is out there, and nobody could say we were soft in the post.

    All of those guys would have made our team a lot better, of course, but I'm not sure any of them would have made a quantum impact (feel free to disagree). The guy I'd pick? Aaron Craft (unranked in 2010). I think with a game-changing defensive player like Craft, our whole team would have been different. I think, all of a sudden, the rest of the team plays better D, and probably better O. I think maybe we lose two or three games all season and would have a good change to still be playing right now.

    You may agree or disagree with me, or bring up players I haven't mentioned. My point is when we think about next year, if our defense picks up the rest is a lot less relevant. A player who doesn't seem like he should make that big a difference might make a huge difference. If you have certain pieces, other seemingly important missing pieces aren't so important.

    Or not. Just something to think about.
    This is a useful exercise to some extent. I always thought if you could combine Cook and Thornton's strengths into one point guard, we'd be in much better shape. Instead you have one guy who runs the O smoothly and another who is a really good help defender. But Craft would be a good addition as well. Imagine if you put Chris Duhon on this year's team as well.

    As for the other guys you mentioned, I think Harkless would be good but would only really be a necessary cog vs Unc so we'd have a bigger defender on Barnes. Mason basically played Thomas Robinson to a standstill in Maui so I dont think he's filling a gap we dont already have a good answer for.

  14. #334
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    As for the other guys you mentioned, I think Harkless would be good but would only really be a necessary cog vs Unc so we'd have a bigger defender on Barnes. Mason basically played Thomas Robinson to a standstill in Maui so I dont think he's filling a gap we dont already have a good answer for.
    I agree with you. Same for Kendall Marshall, who would have made our offense more efficient (except it was already one of the top five efficient offenses in the country for most of the season) but wouldn't have helped our defense even a little. Sometimes we whine and whine for a certain type of player, but that player wouldn't make us all that much better as a team. A lot of times it's the non-glamour guys like Craft who are really what you need. And who knows where those guys might come from or when they might step up?

  15. #335
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by J_C_Steel View Post
    One other thing -- the outlook for the 2013-14 season would be strange. Duke is losing Curry, Dawkins, Kelly and Oriakhi, and also likely Bazz. That's four starters. So the recruiting for 2013 would have to be amped up considerably.
    In your scenario (which I'd consider unlikely, but I'll play along) we'd have junior McDonald's All Americans Cook and Gbinije, a redshirt sophomore elite recruit in Murphy, a redshirt sophomore 7-footer Marshall, a sophomore elite recruit and McDonald's All American in Sulaimon, a freshman Jones, and two seniors in Thornton and Hairston. That's assuming we don't get Zeigler, Jefferson, Parker, or anyone else in the 2013 class. That's still likely to be a really good team. There are holes in that lineup, but it'd still be really good.

  16. #336
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Here's a game for all you posters out there who lament the holes in this year's roster. Pick any player in the country who was not ranked top five in his recruiting class, clone that player and put him on our roster. Who would have had the biggest impact?

    If you think our biggest weakness was our lack of an elite PG, you could pick Kendall Marshall (#25 in 2010). He certainly would have helped our assist to turnover ratio.

    If you think our biggest weakness was the lack of a good-sized wing forward, maybe you'd like Moe Harkless (#38 in 2011), who clearly had the type of size and athleticism many have been pining for.

    Or if you prefer that big post banger, Thomas Robinson (#28 in 2009) is out there, and nobody could say we were soft in the post.

    All of those guys would have made our team a lot better, of course, but I'm not sure any of them would have made a quantum impact (feel free to disagree). The guy I'd pick? Aaron Craft (unranked in 2010). I think with a game-changing defensive player like Craft, our whole team would have been different. I think, all of a sudden, the rest of the team plays better D, and probably better O. I think maybe we lose two or three games all season and would have a good change to still be playing right now.

    You may agree or disagree with me, or bring up players I haven't mentioned. My point is when we think about next year, if our defense picks up the rest is a lot less relevant. A player who doesn't seem like he should make that big a difference might make a huge difference. If you have certain pieces, other seemingly important missing pieces aren't so important.

    Or not. Just something to think about.
    Kedsy, I completely agree with your choice of a premier defensive specialist running the point. We had holes in our offense this year (occasionally inconsistent three point shooting, inconsistent post production, only one guy who could create his own shot), but we still managed to have the 11th most efficient offense in the land (incidentally, UNC checks in with the 17th best offense despite their assist machine and post scoring prowess). We were ranked much higher at times during the season (even making the number 1 spot for a little while) and were as high as number 4 before the slump at the very end of the season. However, as has been well documented, our defense was not up to Duke standards . . . was actually far, far below the Duke norm. A defender like Craft would have prevented a lot of the dribble penetration that hurt us so badly this year, and allowed our big guys more time to rotate and our wings more time to recover when he did get beaten. This would have taken the defensive burden off of our many offensive minded players (Seth, Austin, Ryan, Andre) and probably allowed them to play more efficiently on the offensive end. I'm not sure a low post banger would have helped too much this year. Mason and Miles are already two of the best in the country at rebounding, so that alone wouldn't have improved our rebounding. A defensive Dynamo at the point could have had a real impact.

    That being said, it would be interesting to see what a rebounding small forward like CJ Leslie could have brought to the table, as well. We had serious trouble with ball screens. With our lack of size on the perimeter, it was only a matter of time before a bigger player was matched up with Seth or Tyler after the primary defender was rubbed off a screen. He wasn't particularly efficient offensively, but he wouldn't have needed to be. His almost 20% defensive rebounding rate and versatility/size/quickness would have been a nice addition at times.

    I think this exercise shows how changing a small variable can radically alter how the whole team looks. The difference between having Zoubek or Miles/Mason man the post was huge in 2010, as well, and completely transformed how the offense worked. Duke has enough talent that with the right development of the right player (Mike, Alex) or the addition of a player that brings new skills (Rasheed with his length and athleticism at the guard spots), the whole team could look different. I'm not saying that Rasheed is going to be a star defender like Craft or that Alex and/or Mike are going to turn into a potential lottery pick like CJ Leslie, but this team was not THAT far from being elite.

  17. #337
    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    That being said, it would be interesting to see what a rebounding small forward like CJ Leslie could have brought to the table, as well.
    I thought about including Leslie in my examples, but since he played mostly PF for State this season I didn't want to risk introducing the "is he really a small forward" or "do we really need an undersized power forward" arguments into the discussion, so I just used Harkless as the athletic SF. Obviously, Leslie (or any of the other guys I mentioned) would have helped us. Personally, I'd still go with Craft, though.

  18. #338
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Here's a game for all you posters out there who lament the holes in this year's roster. Pick any player in the country who was not ranked top five in his recruiting class, clone that player and put him on our roster. Who would have had the biggest impact?
    Just thinking within the ACC, I'd say any of Mike Scott (athletic, skilled, versatile PF), Lorenzo Brown (tall, athletic wing and good playmaker), Travis McKie (tall, athletic, physical defender on the wing), and Kendall Marshall (playmaker) fit the bill.

    Outside the ACC? Thomas Robinson, Craft, Royce White, Jeremy Lamb, Ray McCallum, and CJ Fair fit the bill.

  19. #339
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    How about

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Just thinking within the ACC, I'd say any of Mike Scott (athletic, skilled, versatile PF), Lorenzo Brown (tall, athletic wing and good playmaker), Travis McKie (tall, athletic, physical defender on the wing), and Kendall Marshall (playmaker) fit the bill.

    Outside the ACC? Thomas Robinson, Craft, Royce White, Jeremy Lamb, Ray McCallum, and CJ Fair fit the bill.
    Doug McDermott? Can he play the 3? (I haven't seen him play, but we needed a true small forward this year, and the irony is too delicious to pass up.)

  20. #340
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Doug McDermott? Can he play the 3? (I haven't seen him play, but we needed a true small forward this year, and the irony is too delicious to pass up.)
    McDermott is a better version of Ryan Kelly: a stretch 4. He'd absolutely have helped us, though.

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