Looking Ahead To 2012-2013

[loldevilz]

Not taking away the Kansas game but that was very early in the year and we had an advantage that we had played more games together as a team because of China/Dubai trip, just a fact. Yes, UNC game we played well all game and battled back with help from them, nonetheless a good comeback. NC State is a good example for my argument of Duke missing something. They looked uninterested/bad in 1st half and all the sudden flip a switch. Why wait a half?

So what would say caused their up and down/inconsistent play throughout the season? What caused them to look like they weren't ready to play in a number of games? Just curious as to your opinion

I am having a hard time buying the argument that "well we just hit a slump at a bad time." We supposedly hit a slump after playing our best/close to best game at FSU late in the season? Why wouldn't a team that, according to some, didn't have chemistry or leadership issues, just all of a sudden hit a slump after winning one of the biggest games of the year? It was all because of not playing defense? Or lack of talent? See, that is where I think there was something more. There was enough talent on this team to get past the first weekend in the tournament. And there will be enough talent next year to be a championship team. But there are other factors about a team that have to be good to be really good

First of all, any team that shoots 30 threes a game will have an up and down season. Especially a team that is particular poor at transition defense. When you miss threes and they get easy buckets off them, its easy to have very bad stretches (like the NC State & Miami games). But I don't think that was our problem towards the end of the season.

I think that when Kelly went down our point guard play got exposed. With Kelly on the floor, we could spread the floor and get penetration and open looks. Not to mention, he was almost always a bad matchup for the other team. With Kelly out, teams just packed the paint, really covered Rivers, and let Thornton beat them. In my opinion we probably should have used Cook more because he is difficult to guard.

[Kedsy]

Short of that happening, next years team is not likely to be an improvement over this years.

Your words seem to imply that next year's team not being better than this year's team would be some sort of failure, but I think this year's team was really, really good. The disappointment of the season's final game notwithstanding, this year's team was a top 10 team all year and beat some of the best teams in the country. Next year's team could be no better and still make the Final Four.

It goes without saying that they still deserve our steadfast support, since we may well get back to the glory years in the near future.

I take a bit of exception to your use of the word "since" here. You may not have meant it the way I took it, and if you didn't I apologize for nitpicking, but the team doesn't deserve our support because they might get better in the future -- they simply deserve our support. Period. Because we're Duke fans and they're our team.

First of all, any team that shoots 30 threes a game will have an up and down season.

Duke averaged 21.7 three-point attempts a game this season. We shot 30 or more threes just twice all season.

[stixof96]

Your words seem to imply that next year's team not being better than this year's team would be some sort of failure, but I think this year's team was really, really good. The disappointment of the season's final game notwithstanding, this year's team was a top 10 team all year and beat some of the best teams in the country. Next year's team could be no better and still make the Final Four.



I take a bit of exception to your use of the word "since" here. You may not have meant it the way I took it, and if you didn't I apologize for nitpicking, but the team doesn't deserve our support because they might get better in the future -- they simply deserve our support. Period. Because we're Duke fans and they're our team.



Duke averaged 21.7 three-point attempts a game this season. We shot 30 or more threes just twice all season.

Duke was ranked in the top 10 all year, but, looking at things now the question is were they really a top 10 team? I am not so sure they were.

[CDu]

Duke was ranked in the top 10 all year, but, looking at things now the question is were they really a top 10 team? I am not so sure they were.

All the more reason that they deserve our support. They overachieved to be a top 10 (top-5 for a good portion of the season) team. That's a good thing.

[Chris Randolph]

All the more reason that they deserve our support. They overachieved to be a top 10 (top-5 for a good portion of the season) team. That's a good thing.

I don't think Duke overachieved. If Duke would have won the ACC and made a run to the Final 4 then I think their would be a better argument for overachieving. Duke's roster had 7 players on it that had been apart of a championship (or 2) team. Combined with one of the best recruiting classes, including a top 3 recruit, you have top 10 talent.

[uh_no]

Duke was ranked in the top 10 all year, but, looking at things now the question is were they really a top 10 team? I am not so sure they were.

They certainly were at the beginning of the year. WE won in maui, and some other big games off the fact that we had time to prepare over the summer and other teams didn't...we were a month ahead of the other teams...we were closer to our ceiling in november than the other teams. They caught up and passed us as the year went on.

[COYS]

Your words seem to imply that next year's team not being better than this year's team would be some sort of failure, but I think this year's team was really, really good. The disappointment of the season's final game notwithstanding, this year's team was a top 10 team all year and beat some of the best teams in the country. Next year's team could be no better and still make the Final Four.

I qualify this by saying that I agree with you, Kedsy, for the most part. The team had a very good year and has a lot to be proud of even though NO ONE on the team will be satisfied with the way the last two weeks of the season went.

That being said, based on KenPom rankings, this was the worst Duke team from 2003-the present (which is as far back as the rankings go). Yes, this year's team is now ranked worse than the 2007 22-11 Duke team (the rankings might shift a little more after the Final Four, but I doubt this year's team climbs up from #20 to overtake the 2007 squad at #11. The 2007 team had a lot of bad luck in close games. The 2011 team had a lot more good fortune and pulled out a lot of close games (which probably can't all be attributed to luck, either. The 2011 team had more offensive bite and could get back into games that the 2007 team could never have done). It is true that next year's team could be no better and still has a chance of reaching the Final Four. However, I think it's fair to say that Coach K's teams usually have a better chance of reaching the Final Four than this year's team.

The good news is that in 2008 after the 2007 season, Duke finished at #8 in Kenpom with almost the exact same personnel minus McRoberts and plus Kyle Singler. This even included a complete overhaul of the team's style. The 2008 team had almost no size at all, played Greg (a mediocre perimeter defender), DeMarcus, Gerald, and Jon on the court at the same time for long stretches (DeMarcus was the de facto power forward in those situations!), and had Brian for only a very small portion of the season due to injury. Despite all that, the team finished #8 in the country and turned an offense that was rated #40 in the country the year before to the 11th best offense in the land. No, the season didn't end on a pleasant note against WVU, BUT I contend that the 2008 team had far more personnel issues than the 2013 squad will have, even if Mason and Austin depart. We will still have veteran guards. We will still have way more size than the 2008 team (frosh Kyle, soph Lance, and the almost never available Brian were the only guys above 6-5 on the entire team). There is no reason the team can't turn around next year and be significantly better, overall. Coach K has a track record of pulling off significant overhauls even if many of the players remain the same.

[Devilsfan]

I totally agree with the last post of uh no. Teams caught up to us and passed us! I don't believe that one injury and the "we got tired" rhetoric. These are 20 year olds not 40 year olds. Many rated the best in the country (McD AAs) just my opinion.

[uh_no]

I totally agree with the last post of uh no. Teams caught up to us and passed us! I don't believe that one injury and the "we got tired" rhetoric. These are 20 year olds not 40 year olds. Many rated the best in the country (McD AAs) just my opinion.

Well, I certainly believe that Kelly was too much to overcome, but I also don't think we would have beaten MSU or KU now like we did back in the fall.

[Wander]

The good news is that in 2008 after the 2007 season, Duke finished at #8 in Kenpom with almost the exact same personnel minus McRoberts and plus Kyle Singler. This even included a complete overhaul of the team's style. The 2008 team had almost no size at all, played Greg (a mediocre perimeter defender), DeMarcus, Gerald, and Jon on the court at the same time for long stretches (DeMarcus was the de facto power forward in those situations!), and had Brian for only a very small portion of the season due to injury. Despite all that, the team finished #8 in the country and turned an offense that was rated #40 in the country the year before to the 11th best offense in the land. No, the season didn't end on a pleasant note against WVU, BUT I contend that the 2008 team had far more personnel issues than the 2013 squad will have, even if Mason and Austin depart. We will still have veteran guards. We will still have way more size than the 2008 team (frosh Kyle, soph Lance, and the almost never available Brian were the only guys above 6-5 on the entire team). There is no reason the team can't turn around next year and be significantly better, overall. Coach K has a track record of pulling off significant overhauls even if many of the players remain the same.

I'd be careful about drawing these kinds of parallels. Like Mark Twain says, history rhymes, not repeats.

The 2007 team was not a good offensive team - but then it replaced Josh McRoberts with Kyle Singler in 2008, and Demarcus Nelson got healthy and made a great jump as an offensive player. If the 2013 team really does lose Rivers, Miles, and Mason, and only replaces them with Murphy, Marshall, and Rasheed... I'm not sure it's safe to assume that we're automatically going to get better on defense, or better overall.

[miramar]

I totally agree with the last post of uh no. Teams caught up to us and passed us! I don't believe that one injury and the "we got tired" rhetoric. These are 20 year olds not 40 year olds. Many rated the best in the country (McD AAs) just my opinion.

If the 2010 team didn't wear down, even while playing 9 postseason games, there is no reason to conclude that this team lost because they were tired. They played three games in thirteen days, which isn't that bad.

Duke scored 80 or more points 11 times in December and January, but only once in February and March (vs. UNC). The competition heats up as the season goes on, and unfortunately the team didn't seem to come together as we would have liked.

[uh_no]

If the 2010 team didn't wear down, even while playing 9 postseason games, there is no reason to conclude that this team lost because they were tired. They played three games in thirteen days, which isn't that bad.

Duke scored 80 or more points 11 times in December and January, but only once in February and March (vs. UNC). The competition heats up as the season goes on, and unfortunately the team didn't seem to come together as we would have liked.

not only did they not wear down, but the big three played 35+ a game i believe?

[Dukehky]

not only did they not wear down, but the big three played 35+ a game i believe?

I don't like referring to any members of this year's Duke team as "the big three." Seriously, I actually have NO idea who you are talking about. Seth Austin Ryan?

[sagegrouse]

not only did they not wear down, but the big three played 35+ a game i believe?

I don't like referring to any members of this year's Duke team as "the big three." Seriously, I actually have NO idea who you are talking about. Seth Austin Ryan?

I assumed Jon, Kyle and Nolan. -- sage

[CDu]

I don't like referring to any members of this year's Duke team as "the big three." Seriously, I actually have NO idea who you are talking about. Seth Austin Ryan?

He wasn't referencing this year's team. He was referencing the 2010 team. And on that team, it's pretty clear that the big three were Scheyer, Smith, and Singler.

[elvis14]

He wasn't referencing this year's team. He was referencing the 2010 team. And on that team, it's pretty clear that the big three were Scheyer, Smith, and Singler.

AKA Knowlon Schmingler (apologies is I spelled that incorrectly)

[Newton_14]

He wasn't referencing this year's team. He was referencing the 2010 team. And on that team, it's pretty clear that the big three were Scheyer, Smith, and Singler.

Yep, 2010 Big Three. Also, I don't recall hearing anyone stating this years team got tired or wore down. Some suggested Austin hit the Freshman wall, which is certainly possible, but have not seen anyone blame fatigue.

Like you and others have stated, the shooters went cold at a horrible time, and I will always believe the Kelly injury derailed the post season. Others can disagree and that's fine. They would have never survived the South Region even with a healthy Kelly, but there would have been no loss to Lehigh with a healthy Kelly, and there likely would have been a 3rd mtg with UNC in the ACC Tourney. They darn near beat FSU without him.

[Troublemaker]

I put this in the optimism thread but it belongs here. My lineup for next year...

Come to Duke, Bazz!

30 Jr Thorn...................... ..[So Cook]
25 Sr Curry......25 Fr Sulaimon......[Jr Dawkins]
30 Fr Bazz.......10 So Gbinije........{Jr Zeigler}{waiver denied}
30 Sr Kelly......10 Fr Amile..........Jr Hairston
25 Sr Oriakhi......15 Fr Murphy........Fr MP3


Sulaimon's going to be a stud and our 6th man.

That team could get another 1 seed. Getting Bazz is the key.

[duke09hms]

I put this in the optimism thread but it belongs here. My lineup for next year...

Come to Duke, Bazz!

30 Jr Thorn...................... ..[So Cook]
25 Sr Curry......25 Fr Sulaimon......[Jr Dawkins]
30 Fr Bazz.......10 So Gbinije........{Jr Zeigler}{waiver denied}
30 Sr Kelly......10 Fr Amile..........Jr Hairston
25 Sr Oriakhi......15 Fr Murphy........Fr MP3


Sulaimon's going to be a stud and our 6th man.

That team could get another 1 seed. Getting Bazz is the key.

Sorry, I think for us to reach our ceiling, Cook has to be our PG. Neither Tyler nor Seth have shown the playmaking abilities to generate easy baskets that Cook does. Without a creating PG, our offense will likely be stagnant. The only question is if Quinn's defense allows him to see the court.

[Kedsy]

Sorry, I think for us to reach our ceiling, Cook has to be our PG. Neither Tyler nor Seth have shown the playmaking abilities to generate easy baskets that Cook does. Without a creating PG, our offense will likely be stagnant. The only question is if Quinn's defense allows him to see the court.

I'm more interested in how our defense stacks up. That's why I'm intrigued with Oriakhi and Zeigler. Oriakhi is an excellent interior defender and shotblocker. I haven't really seen Zeigler or Rasheed Sulaimon, but both seem to have a reputation as strong defenders. With those three guys in our rotation, our defense might have the potential to be great again (and yes, I still realize the chances of landing both transfers for next year -- or even one -- are fairly slim, especially since it seems the odds of Zeigler being allowed to play next season are somewhat long, but I'm responding to a post responding to Troublemaker's post which hypothesized we'd get both these guys).

Another thing to think about is if we do get one or more top notch defenders playing heavy minutes, there might not be quite as much need for Tyler to play big minutes. It might be possible to reduce his role to an energy defender off the bench and give Quinn and Rasheed more time on the court. Then again, K still might want to play a strong off-ball defender with leadership qualities, it's hard to say at this point.