Looking Ahead To 2012-2013

[tommy]

I think he's also a SG, so in my book that will give us five players for two positions. Now obviously we will be playing Andre and Rasheed at the "3" for portions of each game, but if I have to label guys I'm sticking to my guns and saying all five (Curry, Cook, Dawkins, Sulaimon and Thorton) are guards. Of course I'm hoping the "3" spot will be occupied primarily by someone named Shabazz next season.

I'm with you. Dawkins is not a real "3." We played a 3 guard offense a lot this year because we didn't have a 3. Dawkins does nothing that a traditional 3 would do. He doesn't go to the hoop, slash, board, or guard others' 3's well. He's a spot up shooter. He's a 2-guard that we called a 3 this year because, well, we had to call someone the 3, right?

And Sulaimon is 6'4", same as Andre. He seems like he's going to be a pretty dynamic two-way guard, which we definitely need. But what makes anyone think he's a real "3" either? With him in there, with some combination of Ty/Quinn/Seth/Andre, it's a 3-guard offense again, at least in my view.

[CDu]

I agree with you that may be what our lineup looks like, but man, I think a lot of teams would just cream us on the boards.

Depends. Maybe that team is better able to avoid getting beaten off the dribble which would allow our big to stay in better rebounding position rather than playing help defense. It is certainly possible that we would get killed on the glass though.

[JNort]

Well if we do in fact lose Austin and Mason and gain nobody else (which I doubt would happen) this is how I see it playing out.

PG- Quinn and Tyler
SG- Seth and Rasheed
SF- Murphy and Dawkins
PF- Ryan and Murphy
C- Marshall and Ryan

I am not sure cause I still do not know how Gbiniji and and Josh fit in. The above would be and 8 man rotation which also is not too likely.

[dcar1985]

Well if we do in fact lose Austin and Mason and gain nobody else (which I doubt would happen) this is how I see it playing out.

PG- Quinn and Tyler
SG- Seth and Rasheed
SF- Murphy and Dawkins
PF- Ryan and Murphy
C- Marshall and Ryan

I am not sure cause I still do not know how Gbiniji and and Josh fit in. The above would be and 8 man rotation which also is not too likely.

But you know how Murphy fits in after seeing him play exactly 0 minutes this year?!? I get the love Murph gets b/c of the obvious comparisons to Kyle and Mike Jr. but let's see him play first

[Kedsy]

I am hoping Cook's knee comes back stronger this offseason and he gets some lateral quickness. Watching Craft vs. the Cinci PG (whose name I can't remember) was a great display of on-ball defensive skill and tenacity - something this team sorely lacked all year.

Aaron Craft may be the best perimeter defender in the country. Quinn Cook is never going to be close to that good.

If Mason decides to leave, I wonder if Kelly will get some time at the 5 position.

If Mason does leave, I won't be at all shocked to see a starting lineup of Thornton/Cook, Curry/Sulaimon, Dawkins/Gbinije, Murphy, Kelly. That team would have the type of defensive versatility that we haven't had the past two seasons (in which we were REALLY non-quick in the frontcourt).

It would seem (based on recruiting rankings) that Murphy would likely be further along than Marshall. It'd be interesting, for sure.

I agree with CDu. If Mason leaves, Kelly will get as many minutes as he can handle at the 5. Murphy seems like he would be the frontrunner at the 4. Obviously we'll have to see if he lives up to the billing, and we'll also have to see which of Michael, Josh, and Marshall seem more ready to contribute.

The above would be and 8 man rotation which also is not too likely.

Actually, based on our personnel, I think it's possible K will at least try an 8-man rotation. We had mostly an 8-man rotation for the first three weeks of January this season, with occasional 8-man games after that.

Having said that, if we assume Quinn, Tyler, Seth, Rasheed, and Andre all play 10+ minutes in the backcourt, and that Ryan and Alex are starters in the frontcourt, even if we have an 8-man rotation, there's only one spot left for Michael, Josh, and Marshall. (I'm assuming Mason and Austin are gone in this scenario.)

And that's without considering a roster including any of our recruiting/transfer targets (Shabazz M, Amile J, Trey Z, Alex O, Tony P). Assuming Mason and Austin are gone, we could in theory get as many as three of these five targets. Shabazz would obviously start and play big minutes. I assume Oriakhi would as well. I imagine Zeigler and Parker would play 10+ minutes and that Amile probably wouldn't play so much his freshman year. BUT, assuming we don't go beyond an 8-man rotation, for every one of these guys that plays 10+ minutes, one of the guys in the previous paragraph won't (in addition to the two that were left out in the Michael/Josh/Marshall conundrum).

I know a lot of people would put Andre on the outside looking in, but I'm not one of them. Even if you assume his minutes drop below 10, and also the second one from the Michael/Josh/Marshall trio (meaning all three are under 10 mpg), we'd still have to drop someone else out of the rotation too. I have no idea how it would all pan out.

Has K ever had 13 recruited scholarship players? With that much talent, would he be forced to go to a 9-man rotation? I guess you never know, but either way if we get two or three of the guys we're still looking at (or if Mason and/or Austin decide to stay), we're going to have a lot of amazing talent sitting near the end of the bench.

[JNort]

But you know how Murphy fits in after seeing him play exactly 0 minutes this year?!? I get the love Murph gets b/c of the obvious comparisons to Kyle and Mike Jr. but let's see him play first

I was basing the Murphy statement off of several things actually.

1) He is/was a top 10 to 15 recruit (MG was 29th and Josh 19th)

2a) K said something along the line of Murphy coule be a 4 year all ACC kind of guy
2b) Coach K said it himself “Murphy is really an outstanding finisher, slasher, cutter,”

3) In an interview with coach K at the beginning of the year talking about the 5 freshmen: "...guard Austin Rivers and forward Alex Murphy are the most developed of the group."

I am also assuming we use an actual SF next year instead of another 3 guard lineup and Murphy seems the more talented/ready of the two (He and MG).

[dcar1985]

I was basing the Murphy statement off of several things actually.

1) He is/was a top 10 to 15 recruit (MG was 29th and Josh 19th)

2a) K said something along the line of Murphy coule be a 4 year all ACC kind of guy
2b) Coach K said it himself “Murphy is really an outstanding finisher, slasher, cutter,”

3) In an interview with coach K at the beginning of the year talking about the 5 freshmen: "...guard Austin Rivers and forward Alex Murphy are the most developed of the group."

I am also assuming we use an actual SF next year instead of another 3 guard lineup and Murphy seems the more talented/ready of the two (He and MG).

After reclassing he was actually ranked 41st behind Gbinije and Cook...So compliments of his game means pencil him in as the starting 3 and backup 4? I may be the minority but I just don't believe he was on the cusp of starting this year and then missed a WEEK w/ a mild concussion and was then so far behind the rest of the team that all involved thought it was best he redshirt...we should've went ahead and redshirted the whole freshmen class sans Austin if the others were that far back or is it realistic that Quinn and Mike improved sooo much in that week that they were leaps and bounds ahead of Alex?

[Kedsy]

After reclassing he was actually ranked 41st behind Gbinije and Cook...So compliments of his game means pencil him in as the starting 3 and backup 4? I may be the minority but I just don't believe he was on the cusp of starting this year and then missed a WEEK w/ a mild concussion and was then so far behind the rest of the team that all involved thought it was best he redshirt...we should've went ahead and redshirted the whole freshmen class sans Austin if the others were that far back or is it realistic that Quinn and Mike improved sooo much in that week that they were leaps and bounds ahead of Alex?

Well, since he's back in his original class, we should probably think of him how he was ranked before he re-classified, don't you think?

More importantly, I think your characterization of what happened is wrong. I think Alex came to Duke early expecting to redshirt. He re-thought that when he found out he had a chance at starting, but my guess is he still wasn't sure whether redshirting or playing would be best for him. The concussion ended up being the factor that tilted the balance, so he made the decision to redshirt and went to Coach K; I don't think Coach K told him he was too far behind to contribute.

[dcar1985]

Well, since he's back in his original class, we should probably think of him how he was ranked before he re-classified, don't you think?

More importantly, I think your characterization of what happened is wrong. I think Alex came to Duke early expecting to redshirt. He re-thought that when he found out he had a chance at starting, but my guess is he still wasn't sure whether redshirting or playing would be best for him. The concussion ended up being the factor that tilted the balance, so he made the decision to redshirt and went to Coach K; I don't think Coach K told him he was too far behind to contribute.

Yea...no I don't think so at all...plus junior class rankings are top 60 not 100 and a lot of changes are made, Nerlens Noel just reclassified and actually jumped to #1 in this years rankings so its not like if they though he was a top 10-15 player they wouldn't have put him there....

If you think you've got a chance to contribute then why redshirt? He didn't even actually come to Duke early, this year would have been his 5th year of HS...I know its something a lot of kids are doing nowadays but to be technical about it...

[Kedsy]

If you think you've got a chance to contribute then why redshirt? He didn't even actually come to Duke early, this year would have been his 5th year of HS...I know its something a lot of kids are doing nowadays but to be technical about it...

To be "technical" about it, I think Alex knows what's best for him better than you do. He had his reasons, whether you agree with them or not. Or, to put a bit more accurately, whether you have any idea what those reasons are and if you did know whether you would agree with them or not.

Nerlens Noel just reclassified and actually jumped to #1 in this years rankings so its not like if they though he was a top 10-15 player they wouldn't have put him there....

Noel was top three in his old class, too, wasn't he? He's obviously physically ready. Isn't it possible that from a basketball skills standpoint Alex was a top 10 to 15 guy in the 2012 class, but as a 2011 recruit his strength wasn't quite there yet? That would account for the lower ranking in the older class. And for his inclination to redshirt. Every kid doesn't have the same answer to every question.

[dcar1985]

To be "technical" about it, I think Alex knows what's best for him better than you do. He had his reasons, whether you agree with them or not. Or, to put a bit more accurately, whether you have any idea what those reasons are and if you did know whether you would agree with them or not.

That's not being technical at all...You're not Alex, you have no clue what his reasons may be either, never said what was best for him, I personally don't think he's as good as he's been pumped up to be so soon and that it was best he redshirted...my initial point was that I don't think he was ready in the first place and that it wasn't just the week he missed that made it obvious he should redshirt...I do know he was interviewed at the end of the year and said he thought he could've contributed and helped the team though.

The technical part is...he reclassified to his ORIGINAL class being that he'd already been in HS 4 yrs and was ranked 41st...his 2012 ranking would be based off a 5th year of HS ball which he decided against and came to Duke ON TIME not EARLY and we don't even know what that ranking would've been now being he was a considered a junior at the time...a year is a long time.

[Kedsy]

I personally don't think he's as good as he's been pumped up to be so soon and that it was best he redshirted...

And you base this on what?

[dcar1985]

To be "technical" about it, I think Alex knows what's best for him better than you do. He had his reasons, whether you agree with them or not. Or, to put a bit more accurately, whether you have any idea what those reasons are and if you did know whether you would agree with them or not.




Noel was top three in his old class, too, wasn't he? He's obviously physically ready. Isn't it possible that from a basketball skills standpoint Alex was a top 10 to 15 guy in the 2012 class, but as a 2011 recruit his strength wasn't quite there yet? That would account for the lower ranking in the older class. And for his inclination to redshirt. Every kid doesn't have the same answer to every question.

You can't account for something that hasn't happened yet though...who knows where his strength would be now if he was still in HS...the ranking was based off his game and body of work the last 4 years which is the typical HS experience...So you put no weight in the fact that Alex ranked in his original class was only a top 40 player? Even though you've repeatedly on this board spoke about how recruits ranked in certain areas (top 10) (top 25) (top 50) produce...

[Kedsy]

The technical part is...he reclassified to his ORIGINAL class being that he'd already been in HS 4 yrs and was ranked 41st...his 2012 ranking would be based off a 5th year of HS ball which he decided against and came to Duke ON TIME not EARLY and we don't even know what that ranking would've been now being he was a considered a junior at the time...a year is a long time.

Do you know how many of the other kids in the 2012 class are in the same situation as Alex was, year-wise? My point is that he was ranked in the top 10 to 15 against kids that will be freshmen in 2012-13. And he will be a freshman in 2012-13, just like them, so I don't think it's out of line to view him as a top 10-15 prospect. I'm not sure why his re-classifying and then redshirting would affect that.

[dcar1985]

And you base this on what?

On the little bit i've seen of his game...same as you i'm guessing. I've seen a few of his HS games plus his play in China/Dubai and the exhibition...none of which was very impressive imo...btw before the season you had him possibly starting and definitely in the top 6 rotation...based on what??

[Kedsy]

So you put no weight in the fact that Alex ranked in his original class was only a top 40 player? Even though you've repeatedly on this board spoke about how recruits ranked in certain areas (top 10) (top 25) (top 50) produce...

Well, first of all, it seems these days the typical experience is not four years. I haven't done a study but it seems like a lot of the top kids transfer while in high school (or junior high) and are a year older than the typical college freshman.

When I talk about how recruits ranked in certain areas perform, I am almost always talking about during their freshman year. It seems shortsighted to ignore Alex's redshirt year in this context. With a year of college weight training and coaching, he should be well ahead of a similarly ranked "true" freshman.

[Kedsy]

On the little bit i've seen of his game...same as you i'm guessing. I've seen a few of his HS games plus his play in China/Dubai and the exhibition...none of which was very impressive imo...btw before the season you had him possibly starting and definitely in the top 6 rotation...based on what??

Before the season I didn't expect him to play much at all. UNTIL I heard Coach K say he had a chance to start. I wasn't that impressed with China, either. But I figured K knew more than me.

Going into next season I expect him to be in our top 6, again based on Coach K's comments.

[dcar1985]

Do you know how many of the other kids in the 2012 class are in the same situation as Alex was, year-wise? My point is that he was ranked in the top 10 to 15 against kids that will be freshmen in 2012-13. And he will be a freshman in 2012-13, just like them, so I don't think it's out of line to view him as a top 10-15 prospect. I'm not sure why his re-classifying and then redshirting would affect that.

Lots...Noel is a 5th year player, So was Mike G, Dre also if he wouldn't have came early...but he wont be a freshmen just like them he'll be a redshirt freshmen who's had a year of practicing with high level college players and experiencing a college weight and conditioning program, He's in COLLEGE not HS...its definitely a difference...no way he's better prepared for next year playing a 5th year of HS ball instead of redshirting at Duke

[dcar1985]

Before the season I didn't expect him to play much at all. UNTIL I heard Coach K say he had a chance to start. I wasn't that impressed with China, either. But I figured K knew more than me.

Going into next season I expect him to be in our top 6, again based on Coach K's comments.

Well what you wrote here contradicts that...

[Kedsy]

Lots...Noel is a 5th year player, So was Mike G, Dre also if he wouldn't have came early...but he wont be a freshmen just like them he'll be a redshirt freshmen who's had a year of practicing with high level college players and experiencing a college weight and conditioning program, He's in COLLEGE not HS...its definitely a difference...no way he's better prepared for next year playing a 5th year of HS ball instead of redshirting at Duke

That's exactly what I've been trying to say. He shouldn't be viewed as a #41 prospect; he should either be viewed as the #15 or so prospect he was before he re-classified or possibly better, as a we-don't-know-his-ranking-but-he's-way-ahead-of-almost-all-freshmen prospect.

Well what you wrote here contradicts that...

I don't think it does. Possibly you misinterpreted what I wrote.