Mason Plumlee Returning to Duke for Senior Season

[superdave]

By reading this, my post on AR being more NBA ready than college couldnt be more correct. AND, if Brad Beal is all you got please tell me how this is an example of Duke goggles?

So you think Austin is a better prospect than Brad Beal? If so, why?

I think Beal has the advantage of having a more NBA body. I think Austin's major disadvantage is not being as adept with his left hand. Beyond that, I think Austin has some intangibles that are really important. But I have not really watched Beal a whole lot so I cannot comment on his left hand or his work ethic and effort.

[CDu]

So you think Austin is a better prospect than Brad Beal? If so, why?

I think Beal has the advantage of having a more NBA body. I think Austin's major disadvantage is not being as adept with his left hand. Beyond that, I think Austin has some intangibles that are really important. But I have not really watched Beal a whole lot so I cannot comment on his left hand or his work ethic and effort.

I think Rivers' other disadvantage is that he's really only shown the ability to play one style: isolation on the left with a high screen available attacking to his right. He's not shown the ability to create off the ball, he's not shown the consistent ability to attack left, and he's not shown great court vision. Despite the claims of a high basketball IQ, I'd actually say the opposite: he has phenomenal one-on-one skills and pure talent but a low basketball IQ (probably because he hasn't needed it - he has gotten by on pure talent).

In the NBA, he'll have it a little easier in that hand checking is more tightly called (so he'll get into the lane easier). But the size and athleticism of the defenders in the NBA is worlds different than in college. So he'll need to adapt his game further than he has to this point if he's going to succeed. I don't think he can get away with the 1-2 plays he ran this year for us.

Hopefully he comes back and really works on the other aspects of his game: decision making, going left, playing off the ball, court vision, setting up scoring opportunities for others. If he does so and is successful at it, it would be of great benefit to both Duke and himself.

[DukeGirl4ever]

Despite the claims of a high basketball IQ, I'd actually say the opposite: he has phenomenal one-on-one skills and pure talent but a low basketball IQ (probably because he hasn't needed it - he has gotten by on pure talent).

I said this earlier in the year in one of my posts and someone was not happy with me (and gave consequent negative feedback). It's nice to see I wasn't out in left field with my thinking.

Honestly, people may not agree with it, but it's something to discuss.

Earlier in the year, I would agree with you that his bball IQ wasn't what it should have been being around the game his whole life. There were times when I felt he didn't read the defense and would just attack which is a scorer's mentality. Or, given the fact that he's been around the NBA game forever, that makes sense about his isolation and one-on-one skills.

The great thing about this year overall is I did see great improvement in his basketball IQ and that goes without saying - he plays for the master.
The key here is he could improve a lot more with another year of having Coach K in his ear.

[sporthenry]

So you think Austin is a better prospect than Brad Beal? If so, why?

I think Beal has the advantage of having a more NBA body. I think Austin's major disadvantage is not being as adept with his left hand. Beyond that, I think Austin has some intangibles that are really important. But I have not really watched Beal a whole lot so I cannot comment on his left hand or his work ethic and effort.

I think Beal benefits from not being at Duke in the sense that not everything he does is critically analyzed. I have yet to see ESPN break down any play by Beal so he has the benefit of putting up several good games on national TV and being rated higher almost because people don't like what they see from Rivers. Additionally, it appears he is getting the benefit of the doubt and being rated on potential since he is playing with such a guard oriented lineup with Walker, Boynton, and Rosario.

Personally, I'm not sure how one is a combo guard and the other is a point guard. Perhaps it is because Beal projects as a better shooter but it appears some guys specifically Chad Ford really dislike Rivers for whatever reason. Although maybe Chad Ford is actually a Duke fan convincing scouts to rate him lower to bring him back to Duke. I think everyone recognizes the kid needs to learn to pass and see the game better. Give him and Mason a summer to work together and imagine once Rivers breaks down the defense being able to find an open big man.

As many have alluded to earlier, the NBA's practice schedule is not rigorous b/c of 82 games and looking at players like Avery Bradley who projected very similar to AR shows what can happen. The Celtics were very high on him coming into the year and the kid is starting to show potential but he was drafted around 24 and sat on the bench for a year. So he passed a year up of going after a national title and more money through a higher draft pick up to sit on a bench for 82 games. I guess we can argue about what gets you to the finish line quicker but I'd think the choice is fairly obvious.

[superdave]

I think Beal benefits from not being at Duke in the sense that not everything he does is critically analyzed. I have yet to see ESPN break down any play by Beal so he has the benefit of putting up several good games on national TV and being rated higher almost because people don't like what they see from Rivers. Additionally, it appears he is getting the benefit of the doubt and being rated on potential since he is playing with such a guard oriented lineup with Walker, Boynton, and Rosario.

Personally, I'm not sure how one is a combo guard and the other is a point guard. Perhaps it is because Beal projects as a better shooter but it appears some guys specifically Chad Ford really dislike Rivers for whatever reason. Although maybe Chad Ford is actually a Duke fan convincing scouts to rate him lower to bring him back to Duke. I think everyone recognizes the kid needs to learn to pass and see the game better. Give him and Mason a summer to work together and imagine once Rivers breaks down the defense being able to find an open big man.

As many have alluded to earlier, the NBA's practice schedule is not rigorous b/c of 82 games and looking at players like Avery Bradley who projected very similar to AR shows what can happen. The Celtics were very high on him coming into the year and the kid is starting to show potential but he was drafted around 24 and sat on the bench for a year. So he passed a year up of going after a national title and more money through a higher draft pick up to sit on a bench for 82 games. I guess we can argue about what gets you to the finish line quicker but I'd think the choice is fairly obvious.

Chad Ford is not a talent evaluator. Most of his info comes from relationships with scouts and GMs. He is reporting their perspective, so what he writes about Austin is what the scouts are telling him.

[dukeballboy88]

So you think Austin is a better prospect than Brad Beal? If so, why?

I think Beal has the advantage of having a more NBA body. I think Austin's major disadvantage is not being as adept with his left hand. Beyond that, I think Austin has some intangibles that are really important. But I have not really watched Beal a whole lot so I cannot comment on his left hand or his work ethic and effort.

Yes I do. If I were an NBA GM in need of a 2 and these came up, Id take AR all day. Now Ill be the first to say, I didnt watch many Florida games but I do know AR was ranked higher coming out of high school. I also know AR has the clutch gene that you cant coach, either you have it or not, and that bumps you up in my category. Also, AR got everybodys best shot and he still performed at a very high level. It was kids probly foaming at the mouth knowing they had Duke on the schedule just to prove he was overrated and Rivers rose to the occassion. I think he could be better than JWilliams at Duke if he would come back to school but if he dont, I completely understand because he is as ready as anybody else in the draft.

[CDu]

I said this earlier in the year in one of my posts and someone was not happy with me (and gave consequent negative feedback). It's nice to see I wasn't out in left field with my thinking.

Honestly, people may not agree with it, but it's something to discuss.

Earlier in the year, I would agree with you that his bball IQ wasn't what it should have been being around the game his whole life. There were times when I felt he didn't read the defense and would just attack which is a scorer's mentality. Or, given the fact that he's been around the NBA game forever, that makes sense about his isolation and one-on-one skills.

The great thing about this year overall is I did see great improvement in his basketball IQ and that goes without saying - he plays for the master.
The key here is he could improve a lot more with another year of having Coach K in his ear.

Definitely agree that he's gotten much better as the season progressed. But I still see him as fairly one-dimensional in his mindset and how he gets his opportunities (he still seems to go straight to the isolation game, and he still doesn't seem to be effective off the ball). The offensive flow still seems to stop once he gets the ball. That is okay from time to time, but it can't be the only way things happen. Similarly, he can't be a non-factor whenever he doesn't get the ball.

Strangely, despite his obvious offensive prowess, I feel like defenses don't have to devote much focus on Rivers off the ball because he will just try to come to the ball and set up an isolation play anyway. Contrast that with a guy like Singler or Scheyer or Juan Dixon or Bryant Stith (just a few examples off the top of my head), who would look for any break they could to get an easy look off the ball in addition to their terrific on-ball scoring ability. If Rivers could improve in that area along with continued development of his playmaking skills, he'd be an even bigger force than he already is.

[Des Esseintes]

I would not expect Austin's minutes to go down appreciably. In my mind, Quinn is the only potentially better option at the point. Seth has shown he is not a viable option there. He was given the keys in the summar and early in the year, and was not up to the task. Seth is still a very valuable player for us, but he is much better at catching and shooting from the wing, or driving once an opening has been created through ball movement and/or penetration by others, than he is at initiating and creating himself.

I agree with most of your post here, and I also agree it's rightfully unlikely Curry resumes point guard duty. But it's hardly unprecedented in recent history for Duke guards to be found wanting at the point one season only to flourish in the role later. Scheyer ended the season basically playing point each of his first three years, and only the final time did he get to keep the job the following November. Nolan was installed at point his sophomore year, couldn't do it, spent two entire years playing the two, and then took the job with terrific aplomb when Irving went down. Like you, I think Curry is probably best off the ball with a dynamic creator at the point, but we should remember that because the position is such a demanding one, sometimes people just take a while to mature into it.

[azzefkram]

Yes I do. If I were an NBA GM in need of a 2 and these came up, Id take AR all day. Now Ill be the first to say, I didnt watch many Florida games but I do know AR was ranked higher coming out of high school. I also know AR has the clutch gene that you cant coach, either you have it or not, and that bumps you up in my category. Also, AR got everybodys best shot and he still performed at a very high level. It was kids probly foaming at the mouth knowing they had Duke on the schedule just to prove he was overrated and Rivers rose to the occassion. I think he could be better than JWilliams at Duke if he would come back to school but if he dont, I completely understand because he is as ready as anybody else in the draft.

As of today, I couldn't disagree with you more. A year or two from now will probably be a different story, but today Beal is significantly more ready for the NBA. Austin is not ready at this point. He struggles to finish in college. This will only get worse at the next level. Fortunately for Austin, he's is going to get some great advice as to his readiness for the next level from Coach K and his father along with their respective contacts. Most college players won't be so fortunate.

[JMarley50]

This could be nothing, but I found it a little interesting. Austin has been tweeting again for a few days now. None of the other guys have. It may not seem like a big deal, but before the self imposed ban, Tyler, Josh, Seth and Quinn all tweeted just as much if not more than Austin. I find it interesting that the guys we know will be back next year are still silent and Austin is tweeting away with his usual "I'm gonna prove my haters wrong" type stuff. Seems to me like the group is still committed to something and Austin not so much. Maybe I'm stretching a little, but it was just a thought. What do you guys think?

[Mike Corey]

I think, with respect, that you're stretching a bit.

The same result may occur, but I don't think you will be able to conclude as such via Tweets from some and not from others.

[Jderf]

This could be nothing, but I found it a little interesting. Austin has been tweeting again for a few days now. None of the other guys have. It may not seem like a big deal, but before the self imposed ban, Tyler, Josh, Seth and Quinn all tweeted just as much if not more than Austin. I find it interesting that the guys we know will be back next year are still silent and Austin is tweeting away with his usual "I'm gonna prove my haters wrong" type stuff. Seems to me like the group is still committed to something and Austin not so much. Maybe I'm stretching a little, but it was just a thought. What do you guys think?

I think, with respect, that you're stretching a bit.

The same result may occur, but I don't think you will be able to conclude as such via Tweets from some and not from others.

Agree. Even if you are concluding something from a tweet with a direct statement, it's already iffy. Concluding something indirectly from general tweeting? That's some shaky ground. It is odd, though, I'll give you that.

[1 24 90]

This could be nothing, but I found it a little interesting. Austin has been tweeting again for a few days now. None of the other guys have. It may not seem like a big deal, but before the self imposed ban, Tyler, Josh, Seth and Quinn all tweeted just as much if not more than Austin. I find it interesting that the guys we know will be back next year are still silent and Austin is tweeting away with his usual "I'm gonna prove my haters wrong" type stuff. Seems to me like the group is still committed to something and Austin not so much. Maybe I'm stretching a little, but it was just a thought. What do you guys think?

I have seen tweets from Cook and Gbinije too in the last few days and I just saw that Miles will be participating in the college slam dunk contest March 29th at 9 on ESPN!

[stixof96]

There were whole games this year where I thought Austin was the only one with that fire!

i vote mason and tyler for that....

[superdave]

I really do find this fascinating how much love he gets compared to Austin. Reminds me of both James Harden and Eric Gordon when they entered the draft.

Dan (Minneapolis)

Chad, which player(s) in the Sweet 16 can do the most for their draft stock?

Chad Ford
(1:32 PM)

A big game by Bradley Beal could propel him up a few more spots. Right now he's No. 4 on our Big Board, but I've had several GMs tell me in the past few days that he's their second favorite player in this draft. If they could hang their hat on a couple of big games down the stretch, he could get there. Obviously Perry Jones really needs to redeem himself after a tough first weekend in the tournament. If Dion Waiters keeps playing well, he could keep rising on our boards as well.

And another chat post -

Dave (Durham)
Rivers leaving or staying?

Chad Ford
(1:34 PM)

Not sure yet. But I think we may have him a little underrated on our Big Board. I'm starting to get the feel that GMs may like him a little better than the scouts do. His quick first step and overall aggressiveness appeal to them. He has a lot of work to do on his game, but they see potential there.

[superdave]

Interesting stuff here...

Bryden (Winnipeg)
Why are teams so high on Beal? Isn't he undersized for a SG?

Chad Ford
(1:57 PM)
A little. But he's got the complete package from a skills/athleticism/NBA body standpoint. He hasn't shot the ball great this year, but he really has potential as a shooter as well. Hard to see how he fails at the next level.


Chet (LA)
You definitely have Rivers too low. If you can drive the ball in todays NBA, you can score. Driving to the hole is essentially an automatic foul nowadays. Rivers is tailor made for todays NBA.

Chad Ford
(2:00 PM)
If he was an elite athlete, I'd totally agree with you. He's clearly modeled his game, demeanor, everything after Kobe. He has a ton of those moves and has the swagger. The difference is that Kobe was an all-world explosive athlete. That allows him to do things that Rivers tries to do, but isn't nearly as successful at. That will become even more apparent at the next level. For Rivers to have a really successful NBA career, he's going to have to drop the Kobe act and become a better shooter and really work on that floater. If he does that he'll be really effective. But I'm not sure he knows what he is and that has been, time and time again, a problem for players as they make the leap to the next level. It's why another year at Duke could really help him hone his game.

[stixof96]

This could be nothing, but I found it a little interesting. Austin has been tweeting again for a few days now. None of the other guys have. It may not seem like a big deal, but before the self imposed ban, Tyler, Josh, Seth and Quinn all tweeted just as much if not more than Austin. I find it interesting that the guys we know will be back next year are still silent and Austin is tweeting away with his usual "I'm gonna prove my haters wrong" type stuff. Seems to me like the group is still committed to something and Austin not so much. Maybe I'm stretching a little, but it was just a thought. What do you guys think?

The tweet pretty much says it all doesn't it? He obviously realizes that there is a lot to prove yet, hence, I am going to prove others wrong. Am I missing something?

[CDu]

Chad Ford
(2:00 PM)
If he was an elite athlete, I'd totally agree with you. He's clearly modeled his game, demeanor, everything after Kobe. He has a ton of those moves and has the swagger. The difference is that Kobe was an all-world explosive athlete. That allows him to do things that Rivers tries to do, but isn't nearly as successful at. That will become even more apparent at the next level. For Rivers to have a really successful NBA career, he's going to have to drop the Kobe act and become a better shooter and really work on that floater. If he does that he'll be really effective. But I'm not sure he knows what he is and that has been, time and time again, a problem for players as they make the leap to the next level. It's why another year at Duke could really help him hone his game.

I actually agree a lot with this. Rivers could still "out-athlete" most high school players. That, along with his polished moves made him dominant. He's been at times dominant as a college freshman, but he's finding that defenses are bigger, stronger, faster, and more disciplined in college. That only becomes more true in the NBA (despite what some people may think, the defense played in the NBA is really good). It's much harder to win those isolation battles without Kobe-like athleticism. It would do Rivers a world of good to expand his game a lot more in order to succeed at the next level.

[stixof96]

By reading this, my post on AR being more NBA ready than college couldnt be more correct. AND, if Brad Beal is all you got please tell me how this is an example of Duke goggles?

First, I am getting attacked here a little for just giving my opinions. I have nothing against AR at all. I have nothing against any kid. I think you are 100% correct, AR is more of an NBA player than a college player. Is that a mystery to anyone? It certainly shouldn't be. He has been groomed all of his life to play pro and he is following that plan precisely. Do you think his goals are to be a Duke legend or a pro? If you look at the box score from the Lehigh game ( and Lehigh isn't a barn burner ) he was 5 for 14 from the field, had only 1 assist and 2 turnovers. When you are creating opportunities, you must have more than 1 assist after having the ball that many times. Maybe i am just too old and have seen too much round ball, but, against a competitor like Lehigh, that just doesn't make me jump up and down regardless of who is being discussed. I think he should be back next year because I think he has a ways to go before he is pro ready, but, he has pull that others don't have. His outside shots must improve significantly too. Not just 3 point shots, but outside shots. Driving the lane in the pros will also be alot different. Doc will decide this and I have no idea what the decision will be.

[hq2]

Doc will decide this and I have no idea what the decision will be.

No reason for him to get advice from us; won't get much better than that!