Mason Plumlee Returning to Duke for Senior Season

[-bdbd]

I am tired of this one and done garbage, it's ruining college basketball.

EDIT - I do want to clarify that I do hope all the best for Rivers. This one hurts more than Kyrie did to me. I can't help but think what if if Austin and Kyrie could have crossed paths here at Duke. Don't hate the player (Austin,Kyrie) hate the game (one and done).

You, sir, are obviously NOT a Kentucky Wildcat fan!!


The Washington Post picked up on the CBS story too...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...3AWS_blog.html

...and took the opportunity to print an anti-Duke rant (once again).


Since 2007, three of the five Blue Devils selected in the NBA draft left early. Compare that to the seven previous seasons when seven of the 11 players drafted stayed at Duke for four years. and it begs the question: Is Duke simply recruiting more NBA-ready talent, or are the Blue Devils no longer able to keep players around for more than two seasons?

Early NCAA tournament flameouts have gone from a rare occurrence to a relatively frequent phenomenon for the Duke men’s basketball team in recent years. ...Last week’s stunning round-of-64 loss to 15th-seeded Lehigh sent the Blue Devils home before the region final for the seventh time in eight seasons. ...But while the Lehigh defeat left Duke fans reeling, it’s two more potential losses that should be far more disconcerting.

...It’s one thing to shuffle in full line changes of star-studded freshman classes the way John Calipari has been able to do at Kentucky. But when your team is so dependent on guard play and point guards are only sticking around for one season, it prevents cohesiveness and makes it difficult for a team to progress from year to year.

Should Coach K and company be concerned? Should they alter their recruiting model? Is this an inevitable by-product in today’s basketball landscape? What do you think?



I dunno, not stunning that AR would leave -- wishing him the best in any event -- as that was the expectation coming in. I still have a gut feel that MP2 stays if he isn't a lottery pick yet, which I don't think that he is. Well, at least those who were fretting about having enough scholarships for all of the recruits we're chasing may "rest" a little easier now. We've survived other early departures, and we'll be fine again after this.

[MarkD83]

If the reports are true...good luck in the NBA to Austin.

We also have to look at the positive out of this situation and Kyrie leaving early as well...

Coach K never used to give out a full complement of scholarships. A few were around to give to un-recruited players or walk-ons as they became upper classman. Coach K is now using close to the limit on scholarships and the last one or two are for the very talented players who stay for one year. So..think of the scholarship that is being used as the "Kyrie/Austin/Bazz (or Tony P. or Amile)" scholarship. Over the course of 4 years, four one and done high quality players are better than not using the extra scholrship at all.

[Rich]

I was talking to some of my state friends about this the other day and being the self-deprecating fan base they tend to be, they don't seem to believe me. Even with the loss of Wood and Howell, if Leslie stays and their freshman class is 3/4 of what is expected of them, I think they're the favorite as well.

Hubert Davis just said on ESPN that Duke was losing Mason too. I really don't like all the stories that come out before the tournament is even over about under-classmen leaving. It's not fair to the kids or the programs. It's all just a way of satiating fans like us who don't have anything else to talk about and to keep ratings up on college basketball outside of the tournament (not really needed), I think that the MKG story is probably the worst because it's just such an unnecessary distraction. I wish there was a way for the nCAA to have a gap where kids could declare where it starts on one day and ends on another so that we don't run into these kinds of problems.

Another NCAA rule...that's a great idea! I can see it now, "Son, when you declared to go pro you violated the rule against premature declarations to go pro, so your eligibility to play collegiate basketball has been revoked."

[SilkyJ]

Our front line will include a guy who very likely will be an All-ACC player next year (Kelly), a junior who understands his role, a redshirt freshman 7 footer who was a McDonald's All American, and a redshirt freshman combo forward who would have been a top 10-15 recruit had he come out this year as was originally intended. Take a look around the ACC and I think you'll see that it's going to be above average.

We'll combine that with an All-ACC shooting guard who is a fifth year senior, a senior SG who has limitless range and is capable of monster scoring nights, a top 10-15 recruit at guard who has size and explosiveness, a sophomore PG who was a McDonald's All-American but was hampered by injuries last year, and a junior PG who is very steady, smart, and tenacious defensively.

That's a very glass half full analysis of each player without a single comment to their deficiencies, some of which are quite glaring given the amount of PT we've seen them get. Kelly is good and may become great on offense, but is an average rebounder for his size/position, often gets pushed around down low, and is limited athletically. (As a comparison on the rebounding front if you take Ryan's last 2 years when he played 20+mpg, and Kyle's (who is 3+ inches shorter) last 2 years when he played the 3 and was therefore on the perimeter more, their rebounding rate on a per minute basis was about the same.)

Josh "understanding his role" is a pretty meaningless statement in my mind and essentially says he doesn't bring much to the table, which, to this point, is largely true. I like his hustle and grit but he's undersized for the 4 and not athletic or skilled enough to make up for it. He does seem to be active and have a nose for the ball, but doesn;t seem to come down with it that often...his per 40mins rebounding rate is 6.66 this year, so not terrible, but not great for a PF.)

Marshall hasn't played a game and by all accounts is quite raw. Plenty of raw 7 footer Mickie D's don't pan out. See Boateng, Eric. Complete question mark here.

Murphy hasn't played a game, but I'm bullish on him.

I hope seth takes another step forward, he made progess last year improving his driving but he still lacks some physical gifts you simply can't teach and is an average on-ball defender. (more on this later)

Dre is one of the most discussed people on this board so I'll leave that largely alone. Until he plays consistently and improves his defense I'll consider him a situational weapon.

Tyler and Quinn are both improving and showing promise and I'm of course hopeful that Rasheed will be a factor next year, despite our seemingly deep backcourt rotation.

You didn't mention G, but I expect him to be a major factor and to hopefully play a LOT, b/c we'll need his defense...which brings me to:

Overall this team doesn't add or change anything on the defensive front, except for perhaps with Gbinije and maybe Murphy (still TBD). Defense was our issue this year ALL. YEAR. LONG. And until you show me Dre playing consistent defense and crashing the boards, Tyler/Quinn/Seth staying in front of their man, Ryan Kelly hitting the boards/blocking shots, or maybe Marshall becoming a presence, count me in the camp that next year's team will struggle defensively and thus struggle overall. Not saying those things can't or won't happen, and I'm sure the guys will improve, but we need a lot on the D front.

Of course struggle is a relative term. Yes we'll get 20+ wins, I'm sure we'll make the tournament and the world will not come crashing down (hopefully it somehow will in Chapel Hell), but by Duke's (or should I say Duke Fans') admittedly very, very high standards, it may be a season of struggle if we can't improve our D substantially.

[Greg_Newton]

Nothing concrete, and of course the board frowns on rumor-mongering. I'll just say that one should never make too many assumptions - we've seen plenty of folks depart from Duke as well as other programs over the years, some expected, some less so. Nature of the beast.

And I think you're right. I suppose it's technically rumor mongering, but if you were to ask anyone who's at all clued in right now, I think they'd agree with you.

[CDu]

Of course struggle is a relative term. Yes we'll get 20+ wins, I'm sure we'll make the tournament and the world will not come crashing down (hopefully it somehow will in Chapel Hell), but by Duke's (or should I say Duke Fans') admittedly very, very high standards, it may be a season of struggle if we can't improve our D substantially.

I suggested that we'd probably be a #5 or #6 seed, which would roughly equate to about the worst season we've had in 15 years (the 2007 team was a #6 seed with 22 wins). You seem to come to the EXACT same conclusion (20+ wins) as me. So why the several-paragraph diatribe to come to the same conclusion?

[kingboozer]

You, sir, are obviously NOT a Kentucky Wildcat fan!!

You can say that! I think Calipari is the scum of the earth when it comes to coaching and has no business on the collegiate level. Once again though, don't hate the player hate the game. He's only doing what the system has forced teams to do to win. Recruits are going into these big programs with one foot in and one in the pros, they don't seem to care about the legacy and history that goes along with a college program, and I think that's sad for both fans and for the game as a whole. Everyone wonders how the Butlers, the VCU's, the Lehigh's and the Norfolk State's of the world can pull off what they have these past few years but the answer is simple. These guys are 3-4 year players, they build relationships they build character, they learn how to play as a unit. Look at our 2010 team, all 3-4 year guys that played as a unit, not individuals. I think the biggest thing that got in our way this past season was too many egos in a small space. A program can't be successful like that.

Forever Duke.

[_Gary]

I suggested that we'd probably be a #5 or #6 seed, which would roughly equate to about the worst season we've had in 15 years (the 2007 team was a #6 seed with 22 wins). You seem to come to the EXACT same conclusion (20+ wins) as me. So why the several-paragraph diatribe to come to the same conclusion?

If we don't nab Bazz and/or Parker, I agree. Heck, even if we get Parker we might still only rise to the 20+ win season and a 5/6 seed going in next year.

[sagegrouse]

That's a very glass half full analysis of each player without a single comment to their deficiencies, some of which are quite glaring given the amount of PT we've seen them get. Kelly is good and may become great on offense, but is an average rebounder for his size/position, often gets pushed around down low, and is limited athletically. (As a comparison on the rebounding front if you take Ryan's last 2 years when he played 20+mpg, and Kyle's (who is 3+ inches shorter) last 2 years when he played the 3 and was therefore on the perimeter more, their rebounding rate on a per minute basis was about the same.)

Josh "understanding his role" is a pretty meaningless statement in my mind and essentially says he doesn't bring much to the table, which, to this point, is largely true. I like his hustle and grit but he's undersized for the 4 and not athletic or skilled enough to make up for it. He does seem to be active and have a nose for the ball, but doesn;t seem to come down with it that often...his per 40mins rebounding rate is 6.66 this year, so not terrible, but not great for a PF.)

Marshall hasn't played a game and by all accounts is quite raw. Plenty of raw 7 footer Mickie D's don't pan out. See Boateng, Eric. Complete question mark here.

Murphy hasn't played a game, but I'm bullish on him.

I hope seth takes another step forward, he made progess last year improving his driving but he still lacks some physical gifts you simply can't teach and is an average on-ball defender. (more on this later)

Dre is one of the most discussed people on this board so I'll leave that largely alone. Until he plays consistently and improves his defense I'll consider him a situational weapon.

Tyler and Quinn are both improving and showing promise and I'm of course hopeful that Rasheed will be a factor next year, despite our seemingly deep backcourt rotation.

You didn't mention G, but I expect him to be a major factor and to hopefully play a LOT, b/c we'll need his defense...which brings me to:

Overall this team doesn't add or change anything on the defensive front, except for perhaps with Gbinije and maybe Murphy (still TBD). Defense was our issue this year ALL. YEAR. LONG. And until you show me Dre playing consistent defense and crashing the boards, Tyler/Quinn/Seth staying in front of their man, Ryan Kelly hitting the boards/blocking shots, or maybe Marshall becoming a presence, count me in the camp that next year's team will struggle defensively and thus struggle overall. Not saying those things can't or won't happen, and I'm sure the guys will improve, but we need a lot on the D front.

Of course struggle is a relative term. Yes we'll get 20+ wins, I'm sure we'll make the tournament and the world will not come crashing down (hopefully it somehow will in Chapel Hell), but by Duke's (or should I say Duke Fans') admittedly very, very high standards, it may be a season of struggle if we can't improve our D substantially.

I think this all depends on how raw the ACC competition turns out to be. FSU loses half its roster. Maryland will be better. UVa has a good class but loses its best player. Va Tech will be better. I dunno about Clemson, Wake, and GT.

Maybe we get Syracuse and Pitt, which would tilt the competitive landscape, to be sure, and I have no idea what their situations will be for next year (and maybe they don't either).

WRT UNC -- who knows? You would think that Hensona dn Barnes would leave; Zeller is a senior. Maybe Marshall and McAdoo flirt with the draft. I mean, who knows?

NC State could end up as the conference favorite if CJ Leslie returns.

sagegrouse

[superdave]

Tony said he sees Austin as a star, and loves his confidence. He thinks Austin will be a killer offensive player.

Wilbon says it depends on where Austin lands. He thinks if Austin is in the teens, he'll land in a really good place for him, like the Suns.

And there was a mention of him having onions!

[Mabdul Doobakus]

I think it would be a huge mistake for Austin Rivers to leave. If ever there were a guy who's game would benefit from more seasoning, he is that guy. He's got amazing quickness, but that's pretty much his only above average quality, comparing to other NBA players. Until he learns to finish better at the basket and make better decisions with the ball, there's no way he's going to be a "star", and I would say he's not even going to be particularly good. Like a very bad version of John Wall, who is a lot of flash and yet has done basically nothing to make the Wizards a better team. Austin Rivers' game, at present, will not contribute to wins in the NBA...his game is sloppy and inefficient. He's shooting 43% in college, and averages more turnovers than assists. I think he merits a late first round pick as a risk/reward kind of thing because he does have a ton of raw ability as an athlete, but there is no way I would spend a lottery pick on him if I were an NBA GM. We'll see if I'm wrong.

And Mason Plumlee in no way should go in the first round. I also don't think he's going to improve much, though, so if he feels it's time to try for the NBA, then I'm not going to disagree. I think he'd go mid 2nd round, but I'm not even sure he merits that.

I know I probably sound bitter or something, but I just think both of these guys are being highly overrated as potential NBA talents. Obviously, a lot of folks around here will disagree.

[OldSchool]

That's a very glass half full analysis of each player without a single comment to their deficiencies, some of which are quite glaring given the amount of PT we've seen them get. Kelly is good and may become great on offense, but is an average rebounder for his size/position, often gets pushed around down low, and is limited athletically. (As a comparison on the rebounding front if you take Ryan's last 2 years when he played 20+mpg, and Kyle's (who is 3+ inches shorter) last 2 years when he played the 3 and was therefore on the perimeter more, their rebounding rate on a per minute basis was about the same.)

Josh "understanding his role" is a pretty meaningless statement in my mind and essentially says he doesn't bring much to the table, which, to this point, is largely true. I like his hustle and grit but he's undersized for the 4 and not athletic or skilled enough to make up for it. He does seem to be active and have a nose for the ball, but doesn;t seem to come down with it that often...his per 40mins rebounding rate is 6.66 this year, so not terrible, but not great for a PF.)

Marshall hasn't played a game and by all accounts is quite raw. Plenty of raw 7 footer Mickie D's don't pan out. See Boateng, Eric. Complete question mark here.

Murphy hasn't played a game, but I'm bullish on him.

I hope seth takes another step forward, he made progess last year improving his driving but he still lacks some physical gifts you simply can't teach and is an average on-ball defender. (more on this later)

Dre is one of the most discussed people on this board so I'll leave that largely alone. Until he plays consistently and improves his defense I'll consider him a situational weapon.

Tyler and Quinn are both improving and showing promise and I'm of course hopeful that Rasheed will be a factor next year, despite our seemingly deep backcourt rotation.

You didn't mention G, but I expect him to be a major factor and to hopefully play a LOT, b/c we'll need his defense...which brings me to:

Overall this team doesn't add or change anything on the defensive front, except for perhaps with Gbinije and maybe Murphy (still TBD). Defense was our issue this year ALL. YEAR. LONG. And until you show me Dre playing consistent defense and crashing the boards, Tyler/Quinn/Seth staying in front of their man, Ryan Kelly hitting the boards/blocking shots, or maybe Marshall becoming a presence, count me in the camp that next year's team will struggle defensively and thus struggle overall. Not saying those things can't or won't happen, and I'm sure the guys will improve, but we need a lot on the D front.

Of course struggle is a relative term. Yes we'll get 20+ wins, I'm sure we'll make the tournament and the world will not come crashing down (hopefully it somehow will in Chapel Hell), but by Duke's (or should I say Duke Fans') admittedly very, very high standards, it may be a season of struggle if we can't improve our D substantially.

Wow, I am much more bullish on next year's team than you. Obviously, a team with a sophomore Austin and a senior Mason would be better than a team without those guys. And if Bazz were to come, of course that would improve our prospects.

Barring injuries, I would expect 25+ wins from our returning team. Remember, other teams lose players as well to the NBA and graduation. I don't think we'll be among the top 6-8 teams in the country but I do think we'll be in the next tier, and if our younger players like Cook, Marshall, Murphy and Sulaiman develop well over the season, we could be a nice basketball machine come tourneys time.

By the start of ACC play my prediction:

Quinn starting with Tyler getting heavy minutes off the bench
Seth starting with Rasheed getting heavy minutes off the bench
Dre starting with G getting significantly more minutes (perhaps Murphy getting minutes here)
Ryan starting with Murphy and Josh getting heavy minutes off the bench
MP3 starting backed up by Ryan shifting to 5 and Murphy and Josh getting heavy minutes off the bench

The keys are Quinn living up to his potential at the pg and MP3 being solid down low and staying on the floor by not committing silly fouls.

Seth, Quinn, Dre, Tyler and Rasheed gives us lots of experience and some fresh talent among the guards.

We have an abundance of solid 3pt shooters with Seth, Dre, Ryan, Quinn, and perhaps Tyler can raise his proficiency. (Can Rasheed shoot the 3?) We could be an excellent shooting team next year and K certainly knows how to take advantage of that.

Defensively, what troubled me this year was less the issue of foot speed on the perimeter than just under-developed basketball IQ. Call it dumb play on defense if you like. Not recognizing what the offense is doing and being slow to react, slow to rotate, slow to communicate. Sharpness and intelligence on defense is more important than having a super-quick athlete to lock down the opposing team's penetrating point guard. Virginia this year was what some might call alarmingly unathletic at most positions, but they were sharp and intelligent defensive players.

So I expect some improvement by our veterans on defense simply from being more experienced and we'll just have to see how good defensively our new players like Rasheed and the redshirts prove to be.

And remember, not just Duke but the whole college basketball landscape takes a step back every year with players graduating and going to the NBA. We have to compete in the ACC, not against the Heat and the Thunder.

I think with what we have next year we can be in the top tier of the ACC and contend for the ACC regular season and tourney championships. I don't see any team in the conference that is clearly better than we are, especially if Leslie goes pro.

And nationally, if we get better over the course of the year, we could be pretty good come NCAA time.

[MarkD83]

I think it would be a huge mistake for Austin Rivers to leave. If ever there were a guy who's game would benefit from more seasoning, he is that guy. He's got amazing quickness, but that's pretty much his only above average quality, comparing to other NBA players. Until he learns to finish better at the basket and make better decisions with the ball, there's no way he's going to be a "star", and I would say he's not even going to be particularly good. Like a very bad version of John Wall, who is a lot of flash and yet has done basically nothing to make the Wizards a better team. Austin Rivers' game, at present, will not contribute to wins in the NBA...his game is sloppy and inefficient. He's shooting 43% in college, and averages more turnovers than assists. I think he merits a late first round pick as a risk/reward kind of thing because he does have a ton of raw ability as an athlete, but there is no way I would spend a lottery pick on him if I were an NBA GM. We'll see if I'm wrong.

And Mason Plumlee in no way should go in the first round. I also don't think he's going to improve much, though, so if he feels it's time to try for the NBA, then I'm not going to disagree. I think he'd go mid 2nd round, but I'm not even sure he merits that.

I know I probably sound bitter or something, but I just think both of these guys are being highly overrated as potential NBA talents. Obviously, a lot of folks around here will disagree.

This may sound cynical (and perhaps it is). Declaring for the draft is NOT about how good a pro you will be. It is about maximizing your position in the draft by convincing the GMs of teams that don't make the NBA playoffs that you can help their team make the playoffs.

[MaxAMillion]

I think it would be a huge mistake for Austin Rivers to leave. If ever there were a guy who's game would benefit from more seasoning, he is that guy. He's got amazing quickness, but that's pretty much his only above average quality, comparing to other NBA players. Until he learns to finish better at the basket and make better decisions with the ball, there's no way he's going to be a "star", and I would say he's not even going to be particularly good. Like a very bad version of John Wall, who is a lot of flash and yet has done basically nothing to make the Wizards a better team. Austin Rivers' game, at present, will not contribute to wins in the NBA...his game is sloppy and inefficient. He's shooting 43% in college, and averages more turnovers than assists. I think he merits a late first round pick as a risk/reward kind of thing because he does have a ton of raw ability as an athlete, but there is no way I would spend a lottery pick on him if I were an NBA GM. We'll see if I'm wrong.

And Mason Plumlee in no way should go in the first round. I also don't think he's going to improve much, though, so if he feels it's time to try for the NBA, then I'm not going to disagree. I think he'd go mid 2nd round, but I'm not even sure he merits that.

I know I probably sound bitter or something, but I just think both of these guys are being highly overrated as potential NBA talents. Obviously, a lot of folks around here will disagree.

The vast majority of players do not enter the NBA as finished products. They are drafted based on potential. This isn't much different than when kids were getting drafted straight out of high school (in basketball or baseball). If I were Rivers I would be ready to leave so I could earn my million plus and so I could start concentrating on basketball full time.

Playing college basketball is not a dream for most kids (it certainly wasn't for me). They dream of playing in the NBA. Rivers will definitely be a first round pick and he can look to develop there just like others have done.

[kingboozer]

We have an abundance of solid 3pt shooters with Seth, Dre, Ryan, Quinn, and perhaps Tyler can raise his proficiency. (Can Rasheed shoot the 3?) We could be an excellent shooting team next year and K certainly knows how to take advantage of that.

To me, I don't see Bazz as much of an outside threat as I do an athletic guy that drive the ball into the paint. That doesn't mean he won't be able to once K gets his hands on him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7pUOEagwL0

I'm excited for Matt Jones in 2013, looks like this kid can hit 'em from the 3 point arch and the inside.

[Lord Ash]

Why is there talk that CBS might have jumped the gun on the front page? Has there been anything said about Austin not having decided anything yet?

[dukedoc]

Why is there talk that CBS might have jumped the gun on the front page? Has there been anything said about Austin not having decided anything yet?

His brother had tweeted something to the effect that the decision hadn't been truly finalized. Whether or not that's still the case, it seem inevitable that he's gone.

[lilblue]

His brother had tweeted something to the effect that the decision hadn't been truly finalized. Whether or not that's still the case, it seem inevitable that he's gone.

RT @ _JackDaly Talked to Jeremiah Rivers, Austin's older brother. He's with Austin at home right now. Said a final decision has not been made

[geraldsneighbor]

RT @ _JackDaly Talked to Jeremiah Rivers, Austin's older brother. He's with Austin at home right now. Said a final decision has not been made

Doc Rivers told reporters before the game tonight with the Sixers that Austin hasn't decided yet. Said decision will come shortly, but Austin has gone back and forth on what he wants to do.

[The Gordog]

I'd be ok with him having Laettner's personality if he was also as good as Laettner.

But he's not...

The difference is that CL was the understudy to Ferry his frosh year. Austin came in and supplanted older players. Can't argue with his PT, but his attitude insured that the other SGs on the team would not like him.