Mason Plumlee Returning to Duke for Senior Season

[ChicagoHeel]

While you can never fault a guy for bolting when he's pretty much a guaranteed first round pick, I still think it was a mistake for Rivers to leave. Yes, there is always the risk of an injury or the possibility that Rivers could display some previously-masked flaws in his game, but in this case the potential benefits outweigh the risks. There's no doubt that working with K, plus gaining an extra year of experience and strength, would have improved his fundamentals (e.g. shooting form, shot selection, ability to absorb contact and finish, ability to use both hands). His defense would have obviously benefited as well. Whether he is currently NBA ready or not, it's very difficult to imagine that another year under K would not have him more NBA ready. And in terms of risks, I think his athleticism and speed will always make him a first-rounder; he's fast even by NBA standards. The risk of returning and then dropping in the draft due to a previously unknown weakness was modest at best.

While I think you may have better chemistry next year, it's hard to see how losing Rivers isn't going to make you worse. Of course, a lot depends on who you end up recruiting, but incoming freshman are unreliable and to me the best predictor of a team's success, perhaps save UK, is who is returning. No one can break down defenses like Rivers and I'm not sure how you will replace the almost 20 points a game I imagine he would have averaged next year.

As an enemy of Duke, I'm not too upset about him leaving, but as a fan of college basketball there is part of me that would have liked to see him stick around and hone his talents.

[CDu]

I think you may need to temper that - who knows if defections are over? Dust may not be done clearing.

I certainly agree that there is potential for us to be very good next year. But a few more defections + no additional recruits + bad luck (injuries, etc.) could, in a worst-case scenario, leave us well below our accustomed level of success.

(Or we could return everyone else, add a few more recruits, catch a break here and there, and be outstanding - way too early to tell IMO.)

I should add one caveat. I make that statement assuming that Mason is the only other guy leaving and that we don't get absolutely decimated by injuries. With the 10 guys that I'd anticipate staying (Cook, Thornton, Curry, Sulaimon, Dawkins, Gbinije, Murphy, Hairston, Kelly, Marshall) I think we're a sure-fire NCAA tournament team comfortably above the bubble. With the right improvements at the right spots, we might even still be a #2 or #3 seed.

[nmduke2001]

the "Ahhhhh, SeeYa!" is in extremely poor taste, IMO.

I agree. Hopefully the mods will change it.

[jv001]

While you can never fault a guy for bolting when he's pretty much a guaranteed first round pick, I still think it was a mistake for Rivers to leave. Yes, there is always the risk of an injury or the possibility that Rivers could display some previously-masked flaws in his game, but in this case the potential benefits outweigh the risks. There's no doubt that working with K, plus gaining an extra year of experience and strength, would have improved his fundamentals (e.g. shooting form, shot selection, ability to absorb contact and finish, ability to use both hands). His defense would have obviously benefited as well. Whether he is currently NBA ready or not, it's very difficult to imagine that another year under K would not have him more NBA ready. And in terms of risks, I think his athleticism and speed will always make him a first-rounder; he's fast even by NBA standards. The risk of returning and then dropping in the draft due to a previously unknown weakness was modest at best.

While I think you may have better chemistry next year, it's hard to see how losing Rivers isn't going to make you worse. Of course, a lot depends on who you end up recruiting, but incoming freshman are unreliable and to me the best predictor of a team's success, perhaps save UK, is who is returning. No one can break down defenses like Rivers and I'm not sure how you will replace the almost 20 points a game I imagine he would have averaged next year.

As an enemy of Duke, I'm not too upset about him leaving, but as a fan of college basketball there is part of me that would have liked to see him stick around and hone his talents.

sure not really a Duke fan in disguise? Pretty good points on Austin and the NBA. I happen to agree with you that Austin would be a much better player with another year under Coach K. He's a very good player at this point in his career, but he has lot's of room for improvement. As for how his absence affects us next year, that will not be made clear until the 2013 ACC schedule rolls around. GoDuke!

[MulletMan]

Everyone might want to slow their roll on saying goodbye to Austin.

His brother says no decision has been made yet. Last lines of the article make it sound like he and Doc may not have talked yet. I'm not expecting him to stay, but people might want to chill on the reaction to one report that has gone viral from Jeff Goodman.

(As an aside... if you're one of the college basketball writers at this time of year, do you just take shots on some of these decisions? "I think there's a 75% chance that Rivers goes pro... I'm going to say that a source told me he's declaring and hiring. I can always say my source was bad, but if I'm right, I beat everyone to the scoop." You think these guys play the odds to look good?)

[UrinalCake]

As an enemy of Duke, I'm not too upset about him leaving, but as a fan of college basketball there is part of me that would have liked to see him stick around and hone his talents.

I think there's a very real possibility that NC State could wind up being the preseason favorite in the ACC. This is assuming that CJ Leslie stays while all the Duke and UNC guys who are expected to leave, do. I agree that Austin could have benefited from another year but the way I see it, it's only mistake to go if he never gets a SECOND NBA contract. That can happen if he does so poorly that no team is willing to keep him on their roster. But as long as he does enough to be given a chance to continue developing in the NBA, then the earlier you can leave the better.

[UrinalCake]

Everyone might want to slow their roll on saying goodbye to Austin. His brother says no decision has been made yet.

Wow, this is insane.

[CDu]

I think there's a very real possibility that NC State could wind up being the preseason favorite in the ACC. This is assuming that CJ Leslie stays while all the Duke and UNC guys who are expected to leave, do. I agree that Austin could have benefited from another year but the way I see it, it's only mistake to go if he never gets a SECOND NBA contract. That can happen if he does so poorly that no team is willing to keep him on their roster. But as long as he does enough to be given a chance to continue developing in the NBA, then the earlier you can leave the better.

If I were to place bets right now (which would be a terrible idea), I'd bet on NC State as the pre-season #1 in the ACC.

I'm not sure your assumption regarding Leslie is a good one, though. I think he may be gone.

But if all of the UNC guys go and both Mason, Austin, and (only) Leslie join them then I'd put NCSU #1, Duke #2, and UNC #3. It gets really interesting after that.

[duke4life32182]

Hubert Davis on ESPN just said he felt Rivers would been better to go back to Duke and develop more as a player. He also said "Duke has lost a lot, Rivers and the two Plumlees. I guess the Mason pro thing has made its rounds. Even being mentioned on ESPN now. Maybe he is wrong. Funny to hear an ex UNC Player state that a Duke player would benefit another year.

[DukeGirl4ever]

Now ESPN has added more to the article:

The Blue Devils also are waiting on the decision of junior forward Mason Plumlee, who has decided to declare for the draft but won't actually send in his paperwork until he learns if he's a likely first-round pick. Duke's staff is gathering information on the subject for him before April 10, although technically he has until April 29 to declare.

What does this even mean?
I need to go in hiding and stop reading this stuff.

[cspan37421]

While you can never fault a guy for bolting when he's pretty much a guaranteed first round pick, I still think it was a mistake for Rivers to leave. Yes, there is always the risk of an injury or the possibility that Rivers could display some previously-masked flaws in his game, but in this case the potential benefits outweigh the risks. There's no doubt that working with K, plus gaining an extra year of experience and strength, would have improved his fundamentals (e.g. shooting form, shot selection, ability to absorb contact and finish, ability to use both hands). His defense would have obviously benefited as well. Whether he is currently NBA ready or not, it's very difficult to imagine that another year under K would not have him more NBA ready. And in terms of risks, I think his athleticism and speed will always make him a first-rounder; he's fast even by NBA standards. The risk of returning and then dropping in the draft due to a previously unknown weakness was modest at best.

While I think you may have better chemistry next year, it's hard to see how losing Rivers isn't going to make you worse. Of course, a lot depends on who you end up recruiting, but incoming freshman are unreliable and to me the best predictor of a team's success, perhaps save UK, is who is returning. No one can break down defenses like Rivers and I'm not sure how you will replace the almost 20 points a game I imagine he would have averaged next year.

As an enemy of Duke, I'm not too upset about him leaving, but as a fan of college basketball there is part of me that would have liked to see him stick around and hone his talents.

The proof is in the pudding. While you may not see us replacing nearly 20 ppg, consider how many shots will be freed up as a result. How much more the ball may move on offense to find an open man. I know of no one on the team who is his equal in taking his man off the dribble, but that's not all college basketball is, particularly when, after beating your man off the dribble, you're not finishing with a bucket at very high rate, and when missing due to foul, hitting your FT at a high rate.

The chemistry issue should be interesting. Even if the ball moves more, other guys must work to get open and hit open shots (again, when open, at a much better than average clip). We still have miles to go (no pun intended) to improve on defense and on backcourt rebounding. We'll miss Austin nearly as much for defense as for offense. While he sometimes lost his man, as many times he made great, unexpected defensive plays. No, he didn't often use up his 5 fouls, but still, I'd see him soar for rebounds or try to block a shot that others too often watched flat-footed.

The thing that really surprised me this year is that we didn't often run. With so many guards and pretty athletic C/F in the two MPs, I would have thought we could really get after it on D and run, get easy fastbreak points. It didn't happen a lot, and based on our returning guys, I don't see what will change a lot. We're still going to be fairly small at guard as best I can tell, and perhaps considerably weaker in the post unless MP2 returns - and even then, treading water at best. I wish we had more thievery at our disposal.

I wish AR would stay, I think both he and Duke BB would benefit from more experience and seasoning. But he may get drafted on significant additional potential, probably rightly so, and so he may have a lot of rea$on$ to go ahead and do his finishing school under a rookie contract. Best wishes and farewell.

[Dukehky]

I think there's a very real possibility that NC State could wind up being the preseason favorite in the ACC. This is assuming that CJ Leslie stays while all the Duke and UNC guys who are expected to leave, do. I agree that Austin could have benefited from another year but the way I see it, it's only mistake to go if he never gets a SECOND NBA contract. That can happen if he does so poorly that no team is willing to keep him on their roster. But as long as he does enough to be given a chance to continue developing in the NBA, then the earlier you can leave the better.

I was talking to some of my state friends about this the other day and being the self-deprecating fan base they tend to be, they don't seem to believe me. Even with the loss of Wood and Howell, if Leslie stays and their freshman class is 3/4 of what is expected of them, I think they're the favorite as well.

Hubert Davis just said on ESPN that Duke was losing Mason too. I really don't like all the stories that come out before the tournament is even over about under-classmen leaving. It's not fair to the kids or the programs. It's all just a way of satiating fans like us who don't have anything else to talk about and to keep ratings up on college basketball outside of the tournament (not really needed), I think that the MKG story is probably the worst because it's just such an unnecessary distraction. I wish there was a way for the nCAA to have a gap where kids could declare where it starts on one day and ends on another so that we don't run into these kinds of problems.

[dcdevil2009]

Does anyone else see some comparisons between Austin and Brandon Knight, both were highly touted freshmen who had very good years, but would likely have been drafted higher if they could have gone out of high school? Although they play different positions, Austin and Knight both had the ball in their hands a lot and needed a lot of touches to be effective. It's seems like they've had pretty similar development curves as well, dominating Florida high school basketball and the AAU circuit, being pretty good, but somewhat one-dimensional in the early college season, and finally showing signs of becoming more complete players at the end of the year with the occasional flash of brilliance. Knight has played well at times this year in the NBA, but is a long way from the player that he was expected to become in high school. I wouldn't be surprised for Austin's rookie year to go the same way, with some growing pains, but a few huge games and an overall season that would be worthy of a lottery pick.

[CDu]

Does anyone else see some comparisons between Austin and Brandon Knight, both were highly touted freshmen who had very good years, but would likely have been drafted higher if they could have gone out of high school? Although they play different positions, Austin and Knight both had the ball in their hands a lot and needed a lot of touches to be effective. It's seems like they've had pretty similar development curves as well, dominating Florida high school basketball and the AAU circuit, being pretty good, but somewhat one-dimensional in the early college season, and finally showing signs of becoming more complete players at the end of the year with the occasional flash of brilliance. Knight has played well at times this year in the NBA, but is a long way from the player that he was expected to become in high school. I wouldn't be surprised for Austin's rookie year to go the same way, with some growing pains, but a few huge games and an overall season that would be worthy of a lottery pick.

I don't know that Knight would have gone much higher. By the time players got to the draft, the buzz was already surrounding Irving (who had passed Knight). Maybe he goes a spot or two higher, but when you're the #2 guard coming out it's rare that you go much higher in the lottery.

Rivers probably would have been a lottery pick, but I think most projected him in the 10-15 range. This class was just so deep (with all of the returning players) that he just wasn't going to skyrocket anyway.

[Matches]

But if all of the UNC guys go and both Mason, Austin, and (only) Leslie join them then I'd put NCSU #1, Duke #2, and UNC #3. It gets really interesting after that.

Yup - could be quite a scrum after that. Big year for FSU next year, with them losing a bunch of key guys. There's really no obvious #4 IMO.

[SilkyJ]

If I were to place bets right now (which would be a terrible idea), I'd bet on NC State as the pre-season #1 in the ACC.

Its amazing to even think about that statement. Been a while since that was a real possibility.

Obviously lots to happen b/w now and then with early departures...

[arnie]

I should add one caveat. I make that statement assuming that Mason is the only other guy leaving and that we don't get absolutely decimated by injuries. With the 10 guys that I'd anticipate staying (Cook, Thornton, Curry, Sulaimon, Dawkins, Gbinije, Murphy, Hairston, Kelly, Marshall) I think we're a sure-fire NCAA tournament team comfortably above the bubble. With the right improvements at the right spots, we might even still be a #2 or #3 seed.

I think we are an NCAA tourney team, but IMO the rest of your statement is very optimistic. Front line appears average at best by ACC standards and we still don't know what Murphy can provide in his 1st year. Assuming we don't get Parker, Shabazz or AJ; my expectations are "in and out of top 25" and maybe an 8-10 seed. I'm not as concerned about next year as the following year. We will lose a lot (Kelly, Curry, Dawkins) prior to 2013/2014 and really need better luck recruiting power players now.

[Dukehky]

Jeremiah's article gives me some hope and added disdain for the reports that have already surfaced that Austin has already decided. The celtics have been playing games and have one again tonight and on sunday. Austin has been in Durham (I think) since the loss to Lehigh and just arrived in Orlando. It is absurd to think that Austin Rivers had made decided to come out with a decision without having spoken to his father, a head coach and highly respected NBA player in person about his prospects as a pro at this time. While I still expect him to leave, everything that I think and that has been said on this thread is that it is entirely likely that Doc would probably not be adamantly against Austin returning and would probably be more for a return to Duke to help Austin in every way possible, maybe he thinks its time for Austin to go, but if that's what Doc thinks, then to be honest, that's probably what I think when it comes to his son, who he has way more knowledge about game-wise, personally, and from an NBA perspective than any of us, and probably the Duke coaching staff could ever to hope to

[CDu]

I think we are an NCAA tourney team, but IMO the rest of your statement is very optimistic. Front line appears average at best by ACC standards and we still don't know what Murphy can provide in his 1st year. Assuming we don't get Parker, Shabazz or AJ; my expectations are "in and out of top 25" and maybe an 8-10 seed. I'm not as concerned about next year as the following year. We will lose a lot (Kelly, Curry, Dawkins) prior to 2013/2014 and really need better luck recruiting power players now.

Our front line will include a guy who very likely will be an All-ACC player next year (Kelly), a junior who understands his role, a redshirt freshman 7 footer who was a McDonald's All American, and a redshirt freshman combo forward who would have been a top 10-15 recruit had he come out this year as was originally intended. Take a look around the ACC and I think you'll see that it's going to be above average.

We'll combine that with an All-ACC shooting guard who is a fifth year senior, a senior SG who has limitless range and is capable of monster scoring nights, a top 10-15 recruit at guard who has size and explosiveness, a sophomore PG who was a McDonald's All-American but was hampered by injuries last year, and a junior PG who is very steady, smart, and tenacious defensively.

I fully admit that getting a #2 or #3 seed seems optimistic. But I would be shocked if we were a #8-10 seed (which would be well outside the Top-25, by the way). I'd set the bar at a #5-6 seed and Top-25 team. Could be better, could be worse, but definitely in the field.

[pfrduke]

I agree. Hopefully the mods will change it.

While we may seem all powerful, we have no control over the content on the front page.