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  1. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Avery has been cited as a guy who "left too early", but it's equally plausible that he just wasn't an NBA talent, and that he left at exactly the right time i.e. when he was in a position to parlay a terrific sophomore season into a lottery pick.
    Except he wasn't in the lottery; he was drafted just out of it at #14 by the Timberwolves. He could have gone much lower if NBA GMs weren't infatuated with Duke players at the time. That draft was heavy on PGs with Francis, Davis, Miller, and Terry all ahead of Avery on the draft board. As the Timberwolves also had Terrell Brandon and Chauncey Billups, Avery didn't get off the bench much and never made it to a 2nd contract. If he had waited a year, the 2000 draft was much weaker at PG. Kenyon Dooling at #10, Mateen Cleaves at #14, Speedy Claxton at #20, Erick Barkley at #28 were the only ones to go in the first round. That draft overall was weak. I think he could have been a mid-lottery pick and ended up with a team much more dedicated to developing him.

    Then again, Avery came from a poor background and that certainly factored into his decision to go pro.

  2. #102
    Quote Originally Posted by unexpected View Post
    This is an example of Duke goggles!
    Couldn't agree more. Austin has the potential to be a very good pro but is still very much a work in progress.

  3. #103
    Quote Originally Posted by Li_Duke View Post
    Except he wasn't in the lottery; he was drafted just out of it at #14 by the Timberwolves. He could have gone much lower if NBA GMs weren't infatuated with Duke players at the time. That draft was heavy on PGs with Francis, Davis, Miller, and Terry all ahead of Avery on the draft board. As the Timberwolves also had Terrell Brandon and Chauncey Billups, Avery didn't get off the bench much and never made it to a 2nd contract. If he had waited a year, the 2000 draft was much weaker at PG. Kenyon Dooling at #10, Mateen Cleaves at #14, Speedy Claxton at #20, Erick Barkley at #28 were the only ones to go in the first round. That draft overall was weak. I think he could have been a mid-lottery pick and ended up with a team much more dedicated to developing him.

    Then again, Avery came from a poor background and that certainly factored into his decision to go pro.
    Jay Williams might of had something to do with it as well.

  4. #104

    nba pactice

    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Sorry, but I don't think that's true at all. Practicing every day against the best players in the world is, for many, an outstanding way to improve their game.
    Cue Allen Iverson: "Practice? PRACTICE?!"

    The NBA does practice preseason, but becaue of the number of games during the season and the travel, there is actually very, very little in-season practice. Most of the rare practices that are held are more like walk-throughs or shootarounds -- not the kind of thing where a young player can test himself against the best players in the world.

    Talked to an ex-NBA bench rider who complained about how hard it was to stay in shape ... you couldn't work out hard because you might get called on to play in a game, and if that happened you had to seize the chance. The season becomes a constant struggle to get enough work in to keep your game sharp when you weren't playing and couldn't practice.

    Players do improve, but rarely over the course of a season in which they are not playing. If they are going to develop, they have to do it in the offseason -- working alone and not in a structured setting or in preseason, when their coach is more concerned about putting together a team rather than individual player development.

    I am one of those who believes that Avery needed another year to refine his game at Duke before being thrown into an NBA situation where he never got a chance to play or develop. He did come from a poor background and needed the money to help his mother, who was on disability. In those terms, he made $2.4 million on his first contract before he was out of the league.In financial terms, he earned one big payday, whih is what he wanted. basketball wise, it was a disastrous decision.

  5. #105
    In my opinion, Austin Rivers should stay. He's improved a lot at Duke in his 1 year, but he certainly hasn't maxed out. There's no reason to think that he wouldn't continue to improve at a high rate at Duke. If he goes, I think he'll also improve at a high rate in the NBA, but he won't get consistent playing time his first year or two - especially since the teams drafting him would be playoff teams. I don't think he's the type to be happy sitting on the bench. Much better to stay at Duke, improve, get lots of playing time, and leave once he's improved his draft stock to the point where a team would be forced to play him.

    From a basketball standpoint, Mason should go. He's a first round pick now; he's unlikely to improve his draft stock next year (just look at how many big men are in next year's freshman class - some of them will be one-and-done) unless he improves drastically. Right now, the perception is that he still has some potential and that he could be better on a team with a different system. That perception could change by next year.

  6. #106
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC

    Brad Beal vs. Austin Rivers

    Beal is listed at 6-3, 207 and 6'7'' wingspan. Austin is listed at 6-4, 200, 6'7'' wingspan.

    Beal averaged 14.6 points on 43% field goals and 33% on 3's in 34 minutes. He averaged over 6 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 5 times this season so far (still playing).

    Rivers averaged 15.4 points on 43% field goals and 36% on 3's in 33 minutes. He averaged 3 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 8 times this season.

    So it sounds like they are pretty even, although Austin may have had a few more big games.

    But when you start talking draft, Beal is on Chad Ford's board at #4 and Austin #20. NBADraft.net has Beal at #8 and Austin at #11. Hoopshype.com has Beal at #7 and Austin at #9. DraftExpress has Beal at #7 and Austin at #16.

    If you take the Real Clear Politics method and average them, Beal's at 6.75 and Austin is at 14.

    That's a wide discrepancy for two players who are pretty similar in skill and size and stats this past season. Why is that? For one thing, Austin got a lot of negative press early in the season. Most of the articles were dumb because they came after about two weeks of the season, and Austin has improved considerably. The rebounding discrepancy tells me Beal might be stronger and more physical at this point.

    Here's what some of the writeups say -

    Beal - decent size for an NBA 2; good decision maker; inconsistent shooting #s; good jumper off the dribble; not an elite athlete; undersized/tweener; played with other ball-dominant guards this year which didnt help stats.

    Austin - not a point guard; looks for iso too much; excellent pick-roll player; combo guard; adequate explosiveness; needs to become less selfish; no left hand; great floater; struggles off the ball.

  7. #107
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I am one of those who believes that Avery needed another year to refine his game at Duke before being thrown into an NBA situation where he never got a chance to play or develop. He did come from a poor background and needed the money to help his mother, who was on disability. In those terms, he made $2.4 million on his first contract before he was out of the league.In financial terms, he earned one big payday, whih is what he wanted. basketball wise, it was a disastrous decision.
    I think that line of thinking requires an assumption that another year at Duke would have filled the holes in Avery's game that were exploited in the NBA. That's always possible, of course, but I think it's also possible that those flaws would have been exposed by another year in college. We've had players that certainly benefited from returning for an extra year, but we've had others who haven't. No way to know which camp Avery would have fallen into.

  8. #108
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by chazz101s View Post
    Um, my point (perhaps I was being too oblique?) is that any player has a very hard improving his skills if he is sitting on the bench in the NBA.
    I totally disagree with this. In the NBA, improvement happens in practice.

    This year in the NBA, if you listen to the coaches when they talk about individual players and the extra-packed schedule, they talk about how hard it is for a player to get up to speed or improve because they aren't practicing very much.

    To your other point, Will Avery was a short (listed at 6'2, but not really that tall) PG who was neither explosive enough nor a good enough shooter to start in the League. He was probably unwise to leave as early as he did because he needed more "PG savvy" and that's easier learned in college than in the pros. Austin Rivers is a decent-sized combo guard who has a good handle for a SG and a good shot for a PG. He should have a much easier time making it in the NBA than Avery did.



    EDIT: I see Olympic Fan disagrees with me about NBA practices. I usually defer to his wisdom, so I'll admit it's possible he's right about this. It's certainly true this year, with the condensed schedule, but I will say it's not what I've heard in previous years. Although it's very possible I've heard wrong.
    Last edited by Kedsy; 03-20-2012 at 11:25 AM.

  9. #109
    Quote Originally Posted by Li_Duke View Post
    In my opinion, Austin Rivers should stay. He's improved a lot at Duke in his 1 year, but he certainly hasn't maxed out. There's no reason to think that he wouldn't continue to improve at a high rate at Duke. If he goes, I think he'll also improve at a high rate in the NBA, but he won't get consistent playing time his first year or two - especially since the teams drafting him would be playoff teams. I don't think he's the type to be happy sitting on the bench. Much better to stay at Duke, improve, get lots of playing time, and leave once he's improved his draft stock to the point where a team would be forced to play him.

    From a basketball standpoint, Mason should go. He's a first round pick now; he's unlikely to improve his draft stock next year (just look at how many big men are in next year's freshman class - some of them will be one-and-done) unless he improves drastically. Right now, the perception is that he still has some potential and that he could be better on a team with a different system. That perception could change by next year.
    I don't get that perception in which Mason could be better on a team with a different system because K doesn't have a specific system on offense. K molds his "system" to fit and maximize the talents of the players on the team each year; and I think K tried to feature Mason, especially at the beginning of the season; but Mason started playing inconsistently as the team wen through the season. Just my opinion, I think Mason would benefit as a player (and aid increasing the chances of having a long and successful NBA career) to stay and work on his consistency and post skills reagardless of whehter or not his draft status improves. Not to go off a tangent or sound like I'm ranting, but I'm getting tired of kids being short-sided and focused on the NBA as underclassmen when they are not ready for the NBA (in terms of making an instant impact to a team right away). Isn't it better to prepare and position oneself to receive a big "second" contract since the first (rookie) contract is already predetermined; and wouldn't it be better for Mason to focus on making dramatic improvement (which I think he can still do) so that worst case he duplicates Boozer and get a big second contract if he isn't drafted as a high first round or lottery pick?

  10. #110
    Quote Originally Posted by Class of '94 View Post
    Not to go off a tangent or sound like I'm ranting, but I'm getting tired of kids being short-sided and focused on the NBA as underclassmen when they are not ready for the NBA (in terms of making an instant impact to a team right away). Isn't it better to prepare and position oneself to receive a big "second" contract since the first (rookie) contract is already predetermined
    Maybe - probably so for some guys. For some guys it may be better to begin their careers a year earlier, and reach that second contract a year earlier.

    Not every NBA player gets judged by his rookie season. If that was the case J.J. Redick would be out of the league by now.

  11. #111
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    Jay Williams might of had something to do with it as well.
    Which would be unfortunate if that played into Avery's decision. I see no reason that both couldn't have played together, sharing the PG duties like Williams did in 2001 with Duhon.

    In fact, if we have a starting 5 of Avery, Williams, Carrawell, Battier, and Boozer with Dunleavy, James, and the triad of spot-minute bigs in Sanders, Christensen, and Horvath off the bench, I think we'd have had a really good shot at winning a national championship. Oh well.

    Hopefully Rivers and Mason decide to come back. We could use them, for sure.

  12. #112
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Beal is listed at 6-3, 207 and 6'7'' wingspan. Austin is listed at 6-4, 200, 6'7'' wingspan.

    Beal averaged 14.6 points on 43% field goals and 33% on 3's in 34 minutes. He averaged over 6 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 5 times this season so far (still playing).

    Rivers averaged 15.4 points on 43% field goals and 36% on 3's in 33 minutes. He averaged 3 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 8 times this season.

    So it sounds like they are pretty even, although Austin may have had a few more big games.

    But when you start talking draft, Beal is on Chad Ford's board at #4 and Austin #20. NBADraft.net has Beal at #8 and Austin at #11. Hoopshype.com has Beal at #7 and Austin at #9. DraftExpress has Beal at #7 and Austin at #16.

    If you take the Real Clear Politics method and average them, Beal's at 6.75 and Austin is at 14.

    That's a wide discrepancy for two players who are pretty similar in skill and size and stats this past season. Why is that? For one thing, Austin got a lot of negative press early in the season. Most of the articles were dumb because they came after about two weeks of the season, and Austin has improved considerably. The rebounding discrepancy tells me Beal might be stronger and more physical at this point.

    Here's what some of the writeups say -

    Beal - decent size for an NBA 2; good decision maker; inconsistent shooting #s; good jumper off the dribble; not an elite athlete; undersized/tweener; played with other ball-dominant guards this year which didnt help stats.

    Austin - not a point guard; looks for iso too much; excellent pick-roll player; combo guard; adequate explosiveness; needs to become less selfish; no left hand; great floater; struggles off the ball.
    Having seen both players on television numerous times, I can tell you that Beal is definitely stronger and stockier than Austin. His upper body is definitely more developed. In fact, aside from Corey Maggette, Beal is the most physically impressive(in terms of muscularity) perimeter oriented freshman I have seen play in person.

  13. #113
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    i'll prolly get slammed for saying this, but, i think that nolan was a better player when he left duke than AR is now....take the name "rivers" off, and there's a different perception of him. I think he WILL be the man next year if he stays.......if he goes, he'll make $$$ and get lots of pine time...

    imagine him guarding westbrook.....
    "Either we're going down, or they are....... Kirk out!"

  14. #114
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    I'll prolly get slammed for saying this, but, i think that Nolan was a better player when he left Duke than AR is now....take the name "Rivers" off, and there's a different perception of him. I think he WILL be the man next year if he stays.......if he goes, he'll make $$$ and get lots of pine time...

    imagine him guarding Westbrook.....
    No, I think you are exactly right. Nolan could play point and distribute, play off the ball and move well, or take over one on one or via pick and roll. He had lots of options, and was an A+ defender to boot.

    You make a good point about Austin guarding a guy like Westbrook. Austin needs to get physically stronger, to both body up on D and to finish stronger in the lane by absorbing contact.

    Super "Took the liberty of capitalizing proper nouns in your quote above...." Dave

  15. #115
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    You are correct, sir

    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    i'll prolly get slammed for saying this, but, i think that nolan was a better player when he left duke than AR is now....take the name "rivers" off, and there's a different perception of him. I think he WILL be the man next year if he stays.......if he goes, he'll make $$$ and get lots of pine time...

    imagine him guarding westbrook.....
    Nolan was better his senior year than Austin was as a freshman. Nolan was a better defender, better shooter, better driver of the ball, better passer and the most important, he was a better leader. Austin can become as good a player as Nolan, but it will take at least one or two more years if he's up to putting in the work. GoDuke!

  16. #116
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    The NBA does practice preseason, but becaue of the number of games during the season and the travel, there is actually very, very little in-season practice. Most of the rare practices that are held are more like walk-throughs or shootarounds -- not the kind of thing where a young player can test himself against the best players in the world.

    Talked to an ex-NBA bench rider who complained about how hard it was to stay in shape ... you couldn't work out hard because you might get called on to play in a game, and if that happened you had to seize the chance. The season becomes a constant struggle to get enough work in to keep your game sharp when you weren't playing and couldn't practice.

    Players do improve, but rarely over the course of a season in which they are not playing. If they are going to develop, they have to do it in the offseason -- working alone and not in a structured setting or in preseason, when their coach is more concerned about putting together a team rather than individual player development.

    I am one of those who believes that Avery needed another year to refine his game at Duke before being thrown into an NBA situation where he never got a chance to play or develop. He did come from a poor background and needed the money to help his mother, who was on disability. In those terms, he made $2.4 million on his first contract before he was out of the league.In financial terms, he earned one big payday, whih is what he wanted. basketball wise, it was a disastrous decision.
    Thank you for these insights (which do, of course, match my meager understanding of the NBA [not much of a fan of that league]).

    And if Rivers averaged 2 assists a game, I am surprised. (Hey, I just watched the 1991-92 documentary of Laettner, Hurley, et al. the night after the 75-70 loss--my, what a diminished thing college b-ball has become.)

    For the season, did Duke AVERAGE more turnovers a game than assists? (Certainly it was close--or slightly turnover weighted--during their end-of-season swoon.)

    Yes, the NBA draft often magnifies potential over accomplishment (Scheyer undrafted, anyone?); however, would any NBA decision-maker actually think this of young Rivers based on his past year at Duke: He makes his teammates better???

  17. #117
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    No, I think you are exactly right. Nolan could play point and distribute, play off the ball and move well, or take over one on one or via pick and roll. He had lots of options, and was an A+ defender to boot.

    You make a good point about Austin guarding a guy like Westbrook. Austin needs to get physically stronger, to both body up on D and to finish stronger in the lane by absorbing contact.

    Super "Took the liberty of capitalizing proper nouns in your quote above...." Dave
    I wouldn't disagree either. AR is good, but he has a lot of room to develop. Nolan played good D. He made decisions quicker and could pass well. When AR gets the ball the flow stops in the half court. The team waits to watch him make a move typically because he goes into NBA 1-on-1 mode. The defense can set and stay back. It would serve AR well to learn to stay moving constantly, work on his passing, work on the pick'n roll.

  18. #118
    Quote Originally Posted by chazz101s View Post
    Thank you for these insights (which do, of course, match my meager understanding of the NBA [not much of a fan of that league]).

    And if Rivers averaged 2 assists a game, I am surprised. (Hey, I just watched the 1991-92 documentary of Laettner, Hurley, et al. the night after the 75-70 loss--my, what a diminished thing college b-ball has become.)

    Yes, the NBA draft often magnifies potential over accomplishment (Scheyer undrafted, anyone?); however, would any NBA decision-maker actually think this of young Rivers based on his past year at Duke: He makes his teammates better???
    Well then geez, why do we want him back at all?

    AR was the best player on our team last year. If he returns, he will be our best player next year too. He may or may not be ready to make an impact on an NBA team but I think we have *plenty* of evidence (including Scheyer who you cite) that NBA GM's draft more on who they believe a kid will become than who he is at the time he's drafted.

  19. #119
    Quote Originally Posted by AZLA View Post
    I wouldn't disagree either. AR is good, but he has a lot of room to develop. Nolan played good D. He made decisions quicker and could pass well. When AR gets the ball the flow stops in the half court. The team waits to watch him make a move typically because he goes into NBA 1-on-1 mode. The defense can set and stay back. It would serve AR well to learn to stay moving constantly, work on his passing, work on the pick'n roll.
    I definitely agree than Nolan (as a senior) performed better than AR (as a frosh). Just not sure why that's an important comparison - Nolan as a senior was better than 99.9% of college players. I doubt anyone would seriously question the assertion that AR has room for improvement in his game - most players do.

  20. #120
    Quote Originally Posted by chazz101s View Post
    And if Rivers averaged 2 assists a game, I am surprised.

    2.1

    surprise!

    I think if his teammates had moved better without the ball, the number would have been higher.

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