Strange "regressions" this year

[Lord Ash]

Couldn't help but notice that a number of players seemed to regress a bit this year, or at least did not improve as expected as players tend to between seasons and even over seasons.

By the end of the year Seth and Dre had become very hot and cold, which I don't think anyone predicted given their increased load this year. Mason was strangely hot and cold, sometimes dominating inside with the ball, sometimes hanging around 15 feet out and not even holding the ball much (although his free throw improvements were impressive!) Silent G ended up not playing at all, which seems strange given the struggles of the guards and the lack of a longer defender, not to mention K's high regard for his basketball IQ. Ryan started the year so strong, using his good hands and basketball IQ to block shots and take charges and varying up his attack, sometimes driving sometimes posting, sometimes shooting three... but he seemed to stall a bit before his injury. Once healthy Quinn looked good early, but struggled more as the year went on. Murph went from being discussed as a starter to (with help from an injury) not playing at all. Tyler stayed pretty steady, Austin showed a lot of growth (although even he plateaued by the end) and Miles definitely improved, but I am surprised how many players never really performed as we hoped they would.

I also felt like our offensive sets really became stagnant by the end, even though I know Ryan went down... The guys would dribble around the three point line, but even when picks came against Lehigh nothing came of them.

Of the disappointments of this year, the lack of growth is one of the bigger ones for me. I hope the staff addresses it for next year, as this is a group for whom growth, both in terms of skills as well as attitudes, is very important as far as success for next year.

[DukeGirl4ever]

Couldn't help but notice that a number of players seemed to regress a bit this year, or at least did not improve as expected as players tend to between seasons and even over seasons.

Earlier in the year, I made a comment that I had hoped Duke had not peaked in Maui and a few people weren't really thrilled with that line of thinking. But....

Now I will say it again, I think Duke peaked in Maui. They were playing phenomenal basketball and boy was it fun to watch. I know many posters have stated that we had the trip to China which helped this team develop ahead of schedule in comparison to other teams.

Without sounding negative, I love this team and boy were they fun to watch at times (minus the last 3 weeks). That NC state comeback had me so fired up and thinking this was a team that would not go down without a fight. So why did they go down without a fight? Sure, they fought last night, but almost when it was too late.

I am interested to hear others' thoughts on the possible regression, if that's how were going to view it. Why did it occur? Team chemistry? Other teams caught up to us after having that amazing opportunity in August?

I'm looking forward to any insights and discussion since in this house, Duke basketball is life. I need a new hobby, but these discussions will help for now.

[Duke76]

In my opinion it started with running that top of key pick and roll with guys on the wings...it worked so well last yr and 2010 championship yr...but this year, IMO opinion the guys with ball in their hands more than not did not hit the big man on the roll our the open guys on the wings...seems to me that was the predominant play this yr and it just resulted in a lot of forced shots and guys standing around and then when they did get the ball they again forced up shots and the dribble...We just did not execute that play properly down the stretch or the defense learned how to defend it.

[ncexnyc]

Couldn't help but notice that a number of players seemed to regress a bit this year, or at least did not improve as expected as players tend to between seasons and even over seasons.

By the end of the year Seth and Dre had become very hot and cold, which I don't think anyone predicted given their increased load this year. Mason was strangely hot and cold, sometimes dominating inside with the ball, sometimes hanging around 15 feet out and not even holding the ball much. Silent G ended up not playing at all, which seems strange given the struggles of the guards and the lack of a longer defender. Ryan started the year so strong, using his good hands and basketball IQ to block shots and take charges and varying up his attack, but seemed to stall a bit before his injury. Once healthy Quinn looked good early, but struggled more as the year went on. Murph went from being discussed as a starter to (with help from an injury) not playing at all. Tyler stayed pretty steady, Austin showed a lot of growth (although even he plateaued by the end) and Miles definitely improved, but I am surprised how many players never really performed as we hoped they would.

I also felt like our offensive sets really became stagnant by the end, even though I know Ryan went down... The guys would dribble around the three point line, but even when picks came against Lehigh nothing came of them.

Of the disappointments of this year, the lack of growth is one of the bigger ones for me. I hope the staff addresses it for next year, as this is a group for whom growth, both in terms of skills as well as attitudes, is very important as far as success for next year.

Maybe we the fans had unrealistic expectations for this group. Yes, this group has been around awhile, but nearly everyone was in a new role. Seth started the year in a position he really isn't suited for. Austin had to figure out how to fit into playing as a member of a team instead of being the team as he was in high school. Dre just never seemed to feel comfortable with his role on the team. He seemed to come around once he was moved to the bench, but even that didn't last long. Ryan teased us with flashes of solid aggressive play, but often faded into the woodwork. Mason had moments of brillance, but for whatever reason seemed to get lost in the shuffle and went from being someone we made a concerted effort to get the ball to an afterthought. I think we need to give major props to Mason for his freethrow shooting at the end of the season, he really made some drastic improvement. Miles had a very solid senior year, but I'm not sure we ever viewed him as more than a role player. Tyler is the true heart and soul of this team, but honestly not the most gifted. Quinn has a lot of potential, but he needs to figure out is he a PG or a SG. He's way to fond of his shot for his shooting %. Josh did indeed progress and he showed he could tone down the hyperenergy he displayed at times. Silent G. had the body type this team screamed for but never got much play. We can certainly debate would Duke have been better served to have force fed Mike some time at the expense of wins during the season, but then that question seems to always pop-up at Duke from time to time.

Back in December I said this team reminded me of the, "Island of Misfit Toys" and I still stand by the judgement. Lots of nice parts, but they just don't seem to match. Will another year of experience and the addition of Sheed, Alex, Marshall, and Silent G make thing different next year? Only time will tell.

[Kewlswim]

Hi,

China and Dubai really stretched out the Duke season. I think that trip may pay dividends next year.

GO DUKE!

[uh_no]

Hi,

China and Dubai really stretched out the Duke season. I think that trip may pay dividends next year.

GO DUKE!

I think that's a bit of a reach. There were 2 months or so between the china trip and the start of the season. I think, though, it allowed us to play near our maximum near the beginning of the year, so we appeared better than a lot of other teams, who eventually caught up and surpassed duke as the year went on.

[Lord Ash]

Expectations definitely play a part. However, I don't think we had very unrealistic expectations, and I think that both fans and athletes themselves often have expectations of themselves.

Obviously everyone had high individual expectations this year.

I remember Jay Bilas making a comment about Mason being the most talented player on the team back when we had Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.

Seth was the leading scorer in the NCAAs as a freshman, and people frequently said he was as good as anyone on the team in practice during his redshirt years.

Dre is very athletic and talented, and everyone was waiting to see how he would perform now that he had all the playing time he needed.

Ryan was a McDonalds AA whose basketball IQ is paired up with size and shooting ability, and seemed primed for a great year.

Quinn and Marshall were both McDonalds AAs, and Mike G was touted as having the highest basketball IQ of any player K had ever recruited. Austin was... well, Austin The #1 recruit in the nation for a long, long time.

Tyler and Josh are both very talented players.

Given the growth players often show, especially in the second half of their careers and especially when they finally get a chance to be the "go to" guys on their respective teams, and the growth our players have shown in the past (remember freshman Nolan Smith, or freshman EWill, or freshman Cwell, or freshman Nate, or freshman Gerald, or freshman ZOUB!!!) I think it was actually "fair" to expect some similar growth among the players this year. Outside of Miles and Josh, I don't think we really saw it, especially from the start of the season to the end.

I think having expectations is not a BAD thing for a group of talented players like this. And I think expectations weren't actually that high; I think a lot of people would have been okay with more losses than the "typical" Duke team if it included watching a bunch of young players grow into themselves and their roles, growing into what we have come to expect of Duke players.

But I am not sure that growth happened. I know it left me a bit disappointed.

[Dukehky]

Know who didn't regress? That Shaka Smart character. Enough VCU, go away.

[uh_no]

Know who didn't regress? That Shaka Smart character. Enough VCU, go away.

yeah...after USF and Temple let me down last night, i'd be very unhappy if indiana did the same...

[Wander]

But I am not sure that growth happened. I know it left me a bit disappointed.

It's more difficult to have growth when you've got an awkward roster make-up that forces players into artificial positions. I don't know that it's possible to build a team where Rivers, Curry, and Dawkins are all consistent scorers who play major minutes when you have no forwards. Next year we'll actually have a small forward in Alex Murphy, a presumably improved Gbinije, and maybe Shabazz. My guess is we'll have a much improved "true" point guard in Quinn Cook, which will lead to decent entry passes for whatever Plumlee is around. It'll all get better with a more balanced roster.

[gep]

I don't know about "regression", but for me, the most perplexing was the performances in Cameron... win or lose

[throatybeard]

I don't know about "regression", but for me, the most perplexing was the performances in Cameron... win or lose

We lost three games. Two were basically one-possession deals. Yes, UNC, a more talented team, hurt us powerfully two weeks ago. But it's not like 1995, where we went 8-6 at home. 8-0 road and 5-3 at home with two of the three at the margin is not some sort of disaster.

[Steven43]

Expectations definitely play a part. However, I don't think we had very unrealistic expectations, and I think that both fans and athletes themselves often have expectations of themselves.

Obviously everyone had high individual expectations this year.

I remember Jay Bilas making a comment about Mason being the most talented player on the team back when we had Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.

Seth was the leading scorer in the NCAAs as a freshman, and people frequently said he was as good as anyone on the team in practice during his redshirt years.

Dre is very athletic and talented, and everyone was waiting to see how he would perform now that he had all the playing time he needed.

Ryan was a McDonalds AA whose basketball IQ is paired up with size and shooting ability, and seemed primed for a great year.

Quinn and Marshall were both McDonalds AAs, and Mike G was touted as having the highest basketball IQ of any player K had ever recruited. Austin was... well, Austin The #1 recruit in the nation for a long, long time.

Tyler and Josh are both very talented players.

Given the growth players often show, especially in the second half of their careers and especially when they finally get a chance to be the "go to" guys on their respective teams, and the growth our players have shown in the past (remember freshman Nolan Smith, or freshman EWill, or freshman Cwell, or freshman Nate, or freshman Gerald, or freshman ZOUB!!!) I think it was actually "fair" to expect some similar growth among the players this year. Outside of Miles and Josh, I don't think we really saw it, especially from the start of the season to the end.

I think having expectations is not a BAD thing for a group of talented players like this. And I think expectations weren't actually that high; I think a lot of people would have been okay with more losses than the "typical" Duke team if it included watching a bunch of young players grow into themselves and their roles, growing into what we have come to expect of Duke players.

But I am not sure that growth happened. I know it left me a bit disappointed.

I agree with what you wrote, other than Andre being very athletic. I think he is only marginally so. I also think Ryan's shot is too flat to be consistent and he doesn't seem to thrive in the big moments or games. I was loving the way he was playing at times early in the season, though. It looked like he was really on his way to becoming a player.

Mike might have a high basketball IQ, but he didn't get much playing time, so who knows? Tyler is a nice backup, but might not have the ability to be an elite-level PG. Love his toughness, however. Feel the same about Josh.

Seth is hit or miss. I really see him as mostly a situational spot-up shooter. However, that is the way I see Andre, also. Not sure there is a need for two players of that nature. I could see Rasheed take over the starting role from Seth next year if he shows he can do it. Kind of like what happened to Greg during his senior year.

I don't have an opinion of Alex or Marshall because I have not seen them play at the college level.

I think Quinn can be a very good college PG if he stays healthy. Mason has the potential to be dominant next year. If Austin can figure out his shooting form he could be very very good. I really like his feistiness and desire to win.

[Kedsy]

I think a lot of people would have been okay with more losses than the "typical" Duke team if it included watching a bunch of young players grow into themselves and their roles, growing into what we have come to expect of Duke players.

Well, I don't know which people you're referring to, but on these boards I don't think this statement is anywhere close to true. Every time this year's team even lost a half people on the boards were all over the players, the coaches, our recruiting, etc., etc. Playing Michael and/or not redshirting Alex and/or Marshall would have been completely attacked if it had led to more losses. Not only that, your comments here, at least to me, sound like the definition of unrealistic expectations, assuming (as I do) that you are implying the players didn't measure up:

I remember Jay Bilas making a comment about Mason being the most talented player on the team back when we had Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.

Other than Austin, Mason was our most talented player this year. He had a monster year, averaging almost a double-double. What more do you want from him?

Seth was the leading scorer in the NCAAs as a freshman, and people frequently said he was as good as anyone on the team in practice during his redshirt years.

Seth was our second leading scorer, and did a little bit of everything.

Dre is very athletic and talented, and everyone was waiting to see how he would perform now that he had all the playing time he needed.

Admittedly Andre was inconsistent this year, but in games where he got "the playing time he needed" (let's say, more than 20 minutes a game), he averaged 12.0 ppg and the team was 18-2.

Ryan was a McDonalds AA whose basketball IQ is paired up with size and shooting ability, and seemed primed for a great year.

Ryan did have a great year. The following is his progression from freshman through junior year:

year     ppg     rpg     apg
----     ---     ---     ---
Frosh    1.2     1.1     0.4
Soph     6.6     3.7     0.8
Jr      11.8     5.4     1.1

Not only that, but we saw in the last few games (when Ryan was hurt) how important he was to the team.

Quinn and Marshall were both McDonalds AAs

Quinn was coming off an injury, and as a freshman he started four games, which is more than most guys rated #31 out of high school start for Duke. Marshall redshirted, so I'm not sure how you can say he regressed.

, and Mike G was touted as having the highest basketball IQ of any player K had ever recruited.

I never heard this, and it surprises me, but it's possible I just missed it. More importantly, Michael had a very typical season, minutewise, for a player at Duke with his high school recruiting ranking (#28). We can always hope, but it was unrealistic to expect more.

Austin was... well, Austin The #1 recruit in the nation for a long, long time.

He was our best player, showed amazing improvement in decision making and defense from the beginning of the season to the end, and made first team All-ACC. What more could you want?

Tyler and Josh are both very talented players.

And they both showed a lot of improvement over the course of the season. Tyler was outside the top 100 as a high school senior, and started 18 games as a sophomore. Again, what more could you reasonably want? Josh started two games and, again, had a pretty typical progression for a guy ranked #32 coming out of high school.

Given the growth players often show, especially in the second half of their careers and especially when they finally get a chance to be the "go to" guys on their respective teams, and the growth our players have shown in the past (remember freshman Nolan Smith, or freshman EWill, or freshman Cwell, or freshman Nate, or freshman Gerald, or freshman ZOUB!!!) I think it was actually "fair" to expect some similar growth among the players this year. Outside of Miles and Josh, I don't think we really saw it, especially from the start of the season to the end.

Other than freshman EWill, I don't remember any of those players having great progression as freshmen. But if you're talking about progression from freshman to junior or senior, I think we have seen it. Compare the stats for Miles, Mason, and Ryan in their freshman year vs. this year. HUGE improvement. Even with his inconsistency, Andre doubled his scoring average between his freshman and junior season. Honestly, I don't think you and I have been seeing the same things.

[Greg_Newton]

Seth was our second leading scorer, and did a little bit of everything.

I think it's hard to argue that Seth wasn't a disappointment relative to expectations this year, or that he really even improved at all. Consider:

-His FG% and FT rate decreased slightly.
-His 3P% decreased by 5%.
-His AST/minute remained identical while his TOs/minute increased by 76%.
-His steals per minute decreased by 25%.

He did increase his rebounding and FT% slightly, and blocked 7 shots rather than 5, but other that, I think he pretty clearly regressed, in terms of effectiveness. Plus, even aside from the offensive numbers, I think it's pretty clear from the eye test that he was a liability when it came to preventing penetration or rotation/rebounding down low for his position, with a few exceptions when he really came to play.

Basically, we increased his usage from 2011 to 2012, but I think you could argue that wasn't a positive development for our team.

[Greg_Newton]

I think this is a telling quote:

"Coach does everything in his power to get us going and get us out there playing as one," reserve forward Josh Hairston said. "But for some reason we struggle to do that. We struggle to connect, we struggle to be together out there on the floor. To win a national championship, you can't have five individuals on the floor. You have to have five playing as one and we didn't have that."

[dcar1985]

I don't think anyone but Andre really regressed at all...at some point its not about how many minutes he needs or whether he hits his first shot or not. You have to have that focus and desire to be the man out there...he doesn't have it.

I agree with (can't remember who said it) that we would have benefited from playing Quinn and Mike playing more minutes even if it meant a loss and seeing exactly what they had. Ratings are great but they're not the end all be all...most teams don't have top 25 recruits and they more than make do, being ranked outside the top 25 doesn't automatically mean your not ready to contribute. I guess there was always the threat of him getting hot and dropping some shots but I honestly don't think Mike G couldn't have saw some of Dre's minutes and played at least equal if not better and gained some game time experience at the same time.

[Lord Ash]

A few thoughts...

The regression I was *primarily* thinking about wasn't from year to year; it was more from the start of this year until the end. I did talk about previous years when I mentioned expectations for this year, but I think the feeling of regression was more how the year started versus how it ended for some of the players that left me scratching my head.

Keds, I don't know how to do the fancy multiple quotes within a quote, so I'll just tackle your post here

About wins/losses versus watching the team grow... the thing is, I don't think most people were upset over losses because they were losses. It seemed to be more *how* we were losing. Our losses seemed to come as the team played progressively worse basketball, and I think people were frustrated by the losses more because it seemed that the team was losing its way (not passing in to the bigs, not balancing three point shooting with driving, losing focus on D, etc).

As for expectations... I don't think my expectations were totally unrealistic.

Mason had a good season by all accounts, yes. But he seemed inconsistent... scoring 6 pts in one big game against FSU, 7 in another, and 1 point in another. He had other games where he scored single digits. And I couldn't help but feel that he made mistakes that I would have thought a junior would be beyond. When you look at how much potential he has, I just feel like Mason "should" bring more than 11 points a game to the table, with some games where he disappears. Maybe my expectations are too high.

Seth feels sort of the same way. Yes, he was our second leading scorer (which by itself doesn't necessarily mean much; EVERY team has a second leading scorer...) But Seth again felt a touch out-of-sorts this year... having seen how so many uber-talented Duke guards have stepped up in the past, and thinking that I saw that capability in Seth, I still have this feeling like 13 points a game and possibly questionable D just wasn't enough. When you add in that in a third of the games this year he scored in single digits, and that in the last four games of the year he shot 23, 33, 31, and 11 percent... well, again, expected a bit more, and I don't think that is an unreasonable expectation.

Dre was very inconsistent. He may not have gotten a lot of time every game, but that was Coach Ks call, and I am sure he made it for a reason. Having four scoreless games in the last six is surprising... you hope players turn it up at the end. Dre has all the physical tools... I am not quite sure why he didn't quite get them together this year.

Ryan did have a good year. But again, he seems to have faded a bit down the stretch... with games of 2, 6, 6, 5, 8 and 8 points in his last 9 games. That is surprising for a junior with his skills in such an important stretch of games. And he seemed to have lost a touch on D, maybe spending too much time working on taking charges and not enough time using those surprisingly quick and capable hands to alter and block shots... he went 5 games out of 8 at the end without a block. For a near seven footer with such good IQ and hands, and who had been an effective shot blocker, that was unexpected.

I understand Quinn was coming off an injury, but in his first few games at Duke when he actually got a chance to play he did well. Starting with OSU, he had a stretch of good PG games, including ones with 8 and 9 assists. He seemed able to penetrate and dish, as well as hitting a few circus shots. But near the end it didn't seem like Quinn was penetrating nearly as much, and he starting missing the circus shots. He also started taking shots when maybe they were not the best shots we could have gotten, and missing them... Quinn taking that 3 near the end of the Lehigh game while Austin was next to him calling for the ball left me shaking my head.

Marshall did redshirt... I am sorry we didn't get to see him play He didn't regress, obviously... he didn't play.

Silent G got a few minutes earlier in the season, but by the end never got off the bench. I suppose I do hope that the #28 overall recruit will at least play, especially as he seems to offer some attributes no other player on our roster does. The guys on either side of him in the rankings on Scout averaged 6 points/7 rebounds/2 assists and 9 points/3 rebounds/2 assists this year. I know they are all in different positions as far as depth and all of that, but 9 minutes in the last 16 games is just not much.

Austin was excellent; he learned and grew for most of the year. Don't want anything else; he improved this year, and hit his stride about midyear.

I was basically happy with Josh and Tyler (although I do wonder if Tyler is what we need at starting PG, but that is another story).

Ked, I think the thing is that this regression cannot easily be measured by stats (at least not without a lot of averaging over stretches of games). I know there are times when stats don't match up with what one sees in sports, and I feel like a lot of the stats this year belie what one could actually see... and while I do think stats are very important I feel like they don't quite tell the tale this year.

I suppose it might just be different expectations... but I don't think mine were unfair... and I was sad that our play seemed to get worse in the last third of the year, when you really hope it will sharpen.

[Des Esseintes]

I suppose it might just be different expectations... but I don't think mine were unfair... and I was sad that our play seemed to get worse in the last third of the year, when you really hope it will sharpen.

Except we didn't get worse in the last third of the year. Duke played 34 games this year. Over our final 11 games, Duke went 8-3. Over our middle 11 games, Duke went... 8-3. The finishing third saw us win at Carolina and at Florida State. It's true UNC blitzed us at home, but a similarly talented Ohio State team pummeled Duke even worse earlier in the season. The other two late losses were in the ACC and NCAA tournaments. For my part, a hard-fought close defeat to FSU sans Kelly is nothing to be ashamed of. Lehigh is a different matter, but I don't think that loss should define the season. Losing Kelly hurt. It just did.

[bob blue devil]

Dre was very inconsistent. He may not have gotten a lot of time every game, but that was Coach Ks call, and I am sure he made it for a reason. Having four scoreless games in the last six is surprising... you hope players turn it up at the end. Dre has all the physical tools... I am not quite sure why he didn't quite get them together this year.

I hate to say this, but I've given up on my 3 years of expecting Dawkins to become the player I want him to be rather than the one he is. I have no reason to believe he isn't a great kid, and he's so much fun to watch when his shots are falling, but I resolve not to be frustrated going forward when his defense would be generously described as spotty, when he can't get open against a committed defender, and when he can't be effective if he puts the ball on the floor. Andre is probably trying quite hard, but for whatever reasons his shortcomings are harder to correct than it seems on the surface. So with the coming season, I will not enter with expectations of a new Andre. Hopefully he will give us some great moments, but also hopefully we will see sufficient quality of play from others that Andre will need to compete harder for his minutes.