I'm hearing rumors that NC State is no longer in play with Jefferson. Not sure what's going on, but it sounds good for Duke. Don't count out UK quite yet though.
State I think is moving onto other recruits now.
Actually, Jefferson has given quite a few dates about announcing and then pushed it back. He may be no Tony Parker, but he's certainly not had a quiet recruitment.
Yes, but when you have two guys who are really good in front of you, there aren't a lot of minutes available. Assuming that Kelly were to play all the backup minutes at C and Murphy plays no minutes at PF (assumptions that are highly questionable), that'd leave only ~20 mpg available for Hairston and Jefferson at the PF (and that's assuming 0 minutes for Marshall).
Sometimes, even when you're good, you don't play. Such is the reality when we have 10+ highly-recruited players on the roster. A similar challenge faces State as well.
Sounds like you're assuming Mason and Ryan will each play 30 minutes, leaving 20 available for Josh, Marshall, and Jefferson. That's not TOO bad of a situation. First off, if we reduce Mason and Ryan to 55 total minutes, which is about what they averaged this season, then that leaves 25 min. 10 each for Marshall and Amile and 5 for Josh. I think that's a reasonable expectation for each of them. Would Amile scoff at "only" getting 10 minutes a game? None of us really knows. Also I don't think it's out of the question that Alex plays exclusively at the 3, except maybe in end-of-game situations.
Well, first of all, if immediate playing time is an issue for Amile then 10 mpg probably isn't what he's looking for. Second, if Marshall and Amile get 10 mpg, as in your example, that would give us 10 guys with double-figure minutes, which simply isn't the way Coach K has ever done things. Doesn't for sure mean he won't try something new, but I wouldn't expect it. If Amile comes to Duke, there will probably be three (or possibly four) guys who hardly play. Considering Amile's need for physical development, my guess is he'd be one of them.
I think the difference is that Alex had two older brothers that played Div 1 ball and his family were not as prone to believe people who blow smoke about his immediate NBA prospects, as most recriuits are. Ditto for the Plums.
Depending on how successful Duke is at recruits for the following year, Duke may need Amile even more this year if he can at least resemble a SF to have someone that size besides Alex. The next year with MP2 and Ryan gone, may be when Duke needs the strength buildiig to have taken place so he can be a PF.
Having that 5th year to play college ball is probably not a biggie in Amile's thought process as he likely expects to be a pro by then. So even if minutes are not plentiful ths season, he likely wants them now.
It almost seems like not going out early actually has a negative effect on a players perceived NBA readiness. Like if you use all your eligibility then you don't seem to have much up-side left. I wonder if playing 3-years after red-shirting the first year would improve a player's NBA stock over a 4-year player. In other words would Alex benefit more by playing 3 years + his red-shirt year instead of playing 4 a la Singler. No way to ever control variables enough to prove it one way or the other and I doubt anyone would ever intentionally follow that path but the way seniors seem to be down-graded for not going out early it makes me wonder.
Maybe, but it would seem awfully strange for NBA GMs not to be able to understand that a redshirt junior and a senior are similar in terms of maturity and physical/basketball development. So the upside argument would say very little about the smarts of NBA GMs (insert jokes here).
Has anyone talked about Anthony Bennett in this process? I think Kentucky is going hard after him as well, but I don't know where Anthony is at in his decision making. I would think that if Bennett chooses to go to Kentucky, Amile would go elsewhere because they would then have Bennett and Wiltjer in their depth chart. I know Bennett is likely a one-and-doner anyway, but just a thought.
Yeah, Bennett is the key in whether or not Kentucky has any meaningful time at PF available for Jefferson next year. If Bennett commits, that leaves the frontcourt very full with Noel, Bennett, Wiltjer, and Cauley there and Poythress at SF. In fact, Kentucky should really be more interested in a guard over all else. They have only two significant players on the roster (Harrow and Goodwin) that can be considered major conference-caliber guards.
Yeah, I forgot about Willie Cauley. I'm not sure how going after Amile and Anthony benefits them. I know they are still pursuing Devonta Pollard so that would help, but he's more of a swingman as well. Interesting to see how it plays out for them. One thing is for sure, they're going to have a gooood frontcourt.
Yeah, happens all the time. Not just at Duke, but kids who commit to schools like KY, Kerlina, Kansas as well, they suddenly, magically seem to start rising up the recruiting lists. Conversely, a kid who is relatively highly ranked but who signs with a lower-perceived program, tends to slip in the rankings. A certain (formerly) #2 ranked Center out of IN/VT this year, eschewed Duke and some other biggies to sign with Mich, and he immediately started falling (though in his case he apparently also had some bad performances to help that fall along). Recruiting evaluations are a very inexact "science," so human nature says evaluators are bound to hedge some and be influenced in ranking kids by WHO IS RECRUITING and ultimately SIGNING him... Not a big deal, but it doers make the arguments about recruits here (and elsewhere) not "living up to their rankings" somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy, unfairly.
With the news this week about Silent-G and about Dre both gone for next season on the Wing, I would think that all of this might play well to our AJ recruitment. I really hate to hear about both guys not being around, but do think that the "silver lining" might be an improved shot at AJ (given the sudden availability of Wing time here).
Maybe, but who's to say that Jefferson is going to be any more ready to play in Duke's system than Gbinije was last year? Jefferson is skinny, he's not particularly polished offensively, and while he's a good athlete, that obviously wasn't enough to get Mike G on the floor last year. The loss of Gbinije may turn out to be essentially the loss of the year of maturity and physical development of a guy at that 3, or 3/4 position, so that in a sense we have to start over now with Jefferson, if we get him.
'understand the (legit) point Tommy. But AJ does have a bit more size than Mike G does, and that almost HAS to help on the D end of the court. Also, I've not heard that AJ is a poor defender (have you?). Honest question.
But my point had less to do with the reality on the floor in 6 months and more to do with the situation as perceived in the mind of a talented 17-year-old high schooler from PA over the next couple weeks of his recruitment. And since he supposedly delayed his decision in order to get a better handle on where the playing time would be after all of the NBA and transfer dust cleared, then these changes would seem to argue favorably to that end -- IF that was truly the reason for the delay...
Completely agree with you on your second paragraph. Gbinije was thought to be a major competitor for minutes at the 3, which despite the protestations of some, I believe is going to be his natural position. Ryan Kelly is going to take the lion's share -- the low to mid 30's I suspect -- of the minutes at the 4 anyway, so the 3 position is where Amile would have some daylight next year.
As to your first paragraph, no, I haven't heard that Amile is a poor defender at all. But I hadn't heard that about Mike either, and he did not perform well defensively in games, albeit in limited minutes.