Amile Jefferson Recruiting Thread

[RoyalBlue08]

I think we all know K and company will tell AJ exactly what they believe he can accomplish at Duke but will be very clear with him that time is earned. No guarantees to anyone, ever. Hopefully he sees a great opportunity in having a successful multi-year college career playing for one of the best coaches ever, getting a fantastic education... and without necessarily having to constantly look over his shoulder for the next group of one-and-doners that might eat into his playing time and progress b/c they've been guaranteed major minutes (or whatever it is that Cal tells them).

I think this contains a very good point that I'm not sure some of these high school guys consider. If you are going to Kentucky these days as a guy who is not a sure fire one and done lottery pick, you very well may get buried on the bench later in your career. It's not like Cal using a deep bench. He plays all these one and done guys 30+ minutes it seems. So it would be very easy for a 4 year guy to get recruited over and marginalized.

[Starter]

I think this contains a very good point that I'm not sure some of these high school guys consider. If you are going to Kentucky these days as a guy who is not a sure fire one and done lottery pick, you very well may get buried on the bench later in your career. It's not like Cal using a deep bench. He plays all these one and done guys 30+ minutes it seems. So it would be very easy for a 4 year guy to get recruited over and marginalized.

I'm trying to think of examples of this. Darius Miller, I guess? But Cal didn't recruit him, he still played 26 minutes a game, he's still probably going to get drafted, and it's hard to argue with him being the sixth man when all the guys ahead of him were that good. Kyle Wiltjer didn't play a whole lot in the tournament, but he got some pretty decent minutes in league games last year and will definitely be a factor going forward. Is there someone I'm missing? Not trying to be a jerk, there very well could be, but I can't think of any right now.

Edit: You know what? Come to think of it, Stacey Poole Jr. might preemptively fall into this category, given that he didn't play much as a freshman and transferred before his sophomore year. Like with Gbinije, who knows what would have happened had he stuck it out? But yeah, I guess you can potentially put him in that category of being squeezed out due to too much talent.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I think this contains a very good point that I'm not sure some of these high school guys consider. If you are going to Kentucky these days as a guy who is not a sure fire one and done lottery pick, you very well may get buried on the bench later in your career. It's not like Cal using a deep bench. He plays all these one and done guys 30+ minutes it seems. So it would be very easy for a 4 year guy to get recruited over and marginalized.

UK was barely 7 deep this year. Top 6 players got 33, 32, 31, 31, 29 and 26 mpg. Wiltjer got 11 mpg and 5 ppg. Interesting as you saw darius miller get 5 fewer mpg this year vs. last year and his ppg went from 11 to 10 from his jr to sr season. Little doubt the big 5 impacted his mpg and ppg trajectory. Patrick Patterson is also interesting in that his mpg was nearly the same from soph to junior but his ppg by season was... 16.4, 17.9, 14.3 with his last year production being eaten into by the arrival of cousins et al. Yes, Patterson got drafted 14th anyway. Darius Miller looking like a definite second rounder. Anyway, it does offer some evidence that at UK, at least these days, it is not unlikely that your trajectory can be thrown off by the arrival of the next crop of young'ns.

[Starter]

UK was barely 7 deep this year. Top 6 players got 33, 32, 31, 31, 29 and 26 mpg. Wiltjer got 11 mpg and 5 ppg. Interesting as you saw darius miller get 5 fewer mpg this year vs. last year and his ppg went from 11 to 10 from his jr to sr season. Little doubt the big 5 impacted his mpg and ppg trajectory. Patrick Patterson is also interesting in that his mpg was nearly the same from soph to junior but his ppg by season was... 16.4, 17.9, 14.3 with his last year production being eaten into by the arrival of cousins et al. Yes, Patterson got drafted 14th anyway. Darius Miller looking like a definite second rounder. Anyway, it does offer some evidence that at UK, at least these days, it is not unlikely that your trajectory can be thrown off by the arrival of the next crop of young'ns.

Yeah... but Darius Miller was never, like, an unbelievable player. Kidd-Gilchrist is, and Miller didn't win a starting spot over Lamb -- who's good, don't get me wrong, but not unassailable. I'd assume Miller's going to get drafted where he would have anyway. Were Patterson's numbers depressed a little bit by Cousins, Wall and Bledsoe? Definitely, but the attention level for his team went way up. Who's to say that didn't help him become a lottery pick? Heck, it got Orton drafted when he wasn't even playing. (Though I guess he's shown some flashes recently...) And if you look at UK's roster, I have trouble picking out players that weren't playing this year that should have been.

Not that I have love lost for Kentucky, it's just that they have a good thing going there, and to pick nits seems like sour grapes. If I'm Amile Jefferson, I can't go wrong either way; the situations look kind of similar and they're both great programs. That said, there's no way he plays over Poythress, et. al. But if he doesn't really want to play the 4, he's potentially looking at four years of Murphy to contend with, and Duke IS recruiting Jabari Parker and Julius Randle...

[UrinalCake]

I'm trying to think of examples of this. Darius Miller, I guess?

Maybe the reason you can't think of any is because the players actually did get buried on the bench, therefore no one has ever heard of them. I'm with Royal Blue, I think Jefferson has to be wary of going to Kentucky knowing that they're going to bring in multiple blue-chip guys every year who could win up starting over him. At Duke that could happen too, but it's far more likely IMO that he'd follow a natural trajectory and earn more playing time each year, as Coach K values experience.

[Starter]

Maybe the reason you can't think of any is because the players actually did get buried on the bench, therefore no one has ever heard of them. I'm with Royal Blue, I think Jefferson has to be wary of going to Kentucky knowing that they're going to bring in multiple blue-chip guys every year who could win up starting over him. At Duke that could happen too, but it's far more likely IMO that he'd follow a natural trajectory and earn more playing time each year, as Coach K values experience.

Yeah, okay. I can see what you're saying, that's probably in the back of his mind based on the classes they keep bringing in. But I'd think it would be a potential issue at any major program, and if you're good enough, it takes care of itself.

(Here's UK's roster this year, by the way. I'm still having trouble finding anyone who got buried. I guess maybe Twany Beckham, but it seems he technically transferred there as a walk-on.)

[yancem]

If Kentucky says, hey, come and play big minutes on a top 10 team and Duke says, hey, come redshirt, I'm not sure it would be the best sell on our part.

I get what you're saying. I was just bringing the thought up because from all of the reports I've read, he really needs strength training and redshirting could (and that is the key word) give him the best chance at making the nba. Of course few recruits want to hear that and like I said I wouldn't have thought it to be a possibility if it weren't for MP3 and Murphy doing it this year. For all I know Jefferson may be able to play some minutes as a freshman and develop enough over the next few years that redshirting wouldn't be all that helpful. I was just curious to know if the thought crossed anyone else mind.

BTW, I'm not so sure he would play big minutes at KY next season though. Noel will get big minutes at the 5, Wiltjer should start at the 4, Poythress will play big minutes as a combo forward, Hood should get some minutes in the front court and they may still sign Bennett.

[CDu]

I'm trying to think of examples of this. Darius Miller, I guess? But Cal didn't recruit him, he still played 26 minutes a game, he's still probably going to get drafted, and it's hard to argue with him being the sixth man when all the guys ahead of him were that good. Kyle Wiltjer didn't play a whole lot in the tournament, but he got some pretty decent minutes in league games last year and will definitely be a factor going forward. Is there someone I'm missing? Not trying to be a jerk, there very well could be, but I can't think of any right now.

Edit: You know what? Come to think of it, Stacey Poole Jr. might preemptively fall into this category, given that he didn't play much as a freshman and transferred before his sophomore year. Like with Gbinije, who knows what would have happened had he stuck it out? But yeah, I guess you can potentially put him in that category of being squeezed out due to too much talent.

There's a very real possibility that Wiltjer becomes the example. If UK lands Bennett, the primary frontcourt rotation is going to be Noel, Bennett, and Poythress, with Bennett perhaps playing some C and Poythress some PF. Wiltjer may end up in the same backup role again next year. And depending upon how successful Calipari is at reloading (I'm guessing he'll be in the hunt for Randle and some other bigs), the same may be true the year after.

[mr. synellinden]

From a Scout chat today on their new top 100:

Not Jack : ]
Both you guys still thinking State for Jefferson?
Wednesday April 18, 2012 1:33 Not Jack
1:33
Evan Daniels: It seems to change daily with Jefferson. He clearly is having a tough time deciding as he keeps pushing back his decision. Right now I'd say NC State and Duke are really battling.

[-bdbd]

Hopefully. With both Mason and CJ back, and Amile's prior leanings, on net I would think that would push him further west on I-40.

That said, KY is in on this, and they may be stronger than most think, particularly given their recent exodus. However, Amile is as academically-focused as recruits get, so that would seem to disqualify Cal's factory, but who knows.

I'm thinking that the developments of the last week should have helped Duke a bit vis-a-vis the AJ recruitment. Leslie staying, MP2's return and Silent-G's departure... Amile HAS to realize that most of his Freshman minutes will come in the role of a "3," maybe as a big wing who sometimes goes inside. At that weight and thin build he simply won't be able to last long inside. So, MP2's return probably doesn't cost him many minutes, other than via domino-affect, by bumping RK and maybe Murphy/JH down the line. But CJ Leslie is much closer of a direct-competitor for Amile's minutes. I'm thinking MP2 as a strong compliment to AJ's more perimeter/slasher-oriented current game.

I have been reading the KY recruitment of AJ with some degree of skepticism. That's b/c he just doesn't seem to be of the KY "one and done" mentality. This is a kid who will probably grow a lot, phisically and skill-wise, over the next few years. And that "development model" wouldn't seem to be Calimari's M.O. We'll know soon enough.

BTW, anybody know what is the latest on AJ's projected decision timeline?

[CDu]

I'm thinking that the developments of the last week should have helped Duke a bit vis-a-vis the AJ recruitment. Leslie staying, MP2's return and Silent-G's departure... Amile HAS to realize that most of his Freshman minutes will come in the role of a "3," maybe as a big wing who sometimes goes inside. At that weight and thin build he simply won't be able to last long inside. So, MP2's return probably doesn't cost him many minutes, other than via domino-affect, by bumping RK and maybe Murphy/JH down the line. But CJ Leslie is much closer of a direct-competitor for Amile's minutes. I'm thinking MP2 as a strong compliment to AJ's more perimeter/slasher-oriented current game.

I have been reading the KY recruitment of AJ with some degree of skepticism. That's b/c he just doesn't seem to be of the KY "one and done" mentality. This is a kid who will probably grow a lot, phisically and skill-wise, over the next few years. And that "development model" wouldn't seem to be Calimari's M.O. We'll know soon enough.

BTW, anybody know what is the latest on AJ's projected decision timeline?

Mason's impact on Jefferson's minutes are that he takes away minutes at PF by bumping Kelly and/or Hairston back down to PF instead of filling minutes at C. Leslie plays exclusively at PF. If you are suggesting that Jefferson will play at SF, then neither player ever really were taking Jefferson's minutes. So neither factored in. In that scenario, Duke has Murphy and Dawkins, State has Wood and Warren, and Kentucky has Poythress. So none are slam dunk options for minutes next year.

I've always believed he was more of a college PF than a SF (he just happens to have a SF body). As such, the decisions of Mason (indirectly) and Leslie (directly) do matter. As would the decision of Anthony Bennett (a better freshman PF) at UK matters.

[ACCBBallFan]

I'm thinking that the developments of the last week should have helped Duke a bit vis-a-vis the AJ recruitment. Leslie staying, MP2's return and Silent-G's departure... Amile HAS to realize that most of his Freshman minutes will come in the role of a "3," maybe as a big wing who sometimes goes inside. At that weight and thin build he simply won't be able to last long inside. So, MP2's return probably doesn't cost him many minutes, other than via domino-affect, by bumping RK and maybe Murphy/JH down the line. But CJ Leslie is much closer of a direct-competitor for Amile's minutes. I'm thinking MP2 as a strong compliment to AJ's more perimeter/slasher-oriented current game.

I have been reading the KY recruitment of AJ with some degree of skepticism. That's b/c he just doesn't seem to be of the KY "one and done" mentality. This is a kid who will probably grow a lot, phisically and skill-wise, over the next few years. And that "development model" wouldn't seem to be Calimari's M.O. We'll know soon enough.

BTW, anybody know what is the latest on AJ's projected decision timeline?

Yes, and UK is still going after Bennett too, as Duke is after Rodney but latter is ineliigible next year.

Various rating agencies list Amile on average at about 6' 9" 200 pounds, some as low as 6'7" 190. As was the case with Ryan his freshman year, too frail to compete with Ryan and Josh both about 235 pounds, even if Amile skill set is better than Josh. With Howell for State or possibly Tony Parker for Duke in the paint, Amile would get crushed.

Amile is a decent player apparently, but no Kevin Durant or Brandon Wright or Tayshaun Prince or CJ Leslie caliber just yet.

Duke's need is for a tall WF to compete with Alex every day in practice. If he is sufficiently ready Amile and Alex could jointly total about 30 minutes at WF with Dre getting the other 10 at WF, plus some minutes at SG. Alex may displace Josh as the primary PF sub which would open up a few more WF minutes for Amile and Dre.

Comparable to Duke's MP2, MP3, Ryan and Josh, State has Howell, Vandenberg, CJ and deThay.

Comparable to Duke's gunner Andre who has neither the ideal height nor the weight of a typcial WF but does have hops, State has Scott Wood who has the height but not the weight to play forward. Amiles's comparably sized competition at WF has not played a college game yet, be that Alex or T J Warren.

Duke has a little more depth at combo slots but State has enough with LoBrown, Purvis and Graham.

With rosters so comparable it boils down to Amile's comfort level with the two programs, coaches and players with Duke obviously offering more TV exposure but also a more rigorous academic schedule.

We can hold off on discussions of how the 5 guards share time across combo spots plus whatever they can earn as small WF, until after we know if Amile joins and whether he can play WF or like Henson can only play a tall frail PF.

[Steven43]

Yeah... but Darius Miller was never, like, an unbelievable player. Kidd-Gilchrist is, and Miller didn't win a starting spot over Lamb -- who's good, don't get me wrong, but not unassailable. I'd assume Miller's going to get drafted where he would have anyway. Were Patterson's numbers depressed a little bit by Cousins, Wall and Bledsoe? Definitely, but the attention level for his team went way up. Who's to say that didn't help him become a lottery pick? Heck, it got Orton drafted when he wasn't even playing. (Though I guess he's shown some flashes recently...) And if you look at UK's roster, I have trouble picking out players that weren't playing this year that should have been.

Not that I have love lost for Kentucky, it's just that they have a good thing going there, and to pick nits seems like sour grapes. If I'm Amile Jefferson, I can't go wrong either way; the situations look kind of similar and they're both great programs. That said, there's no way he plays over Poythress, et. al. But if he doesn't really want to play the 4, he's potentially looking at four years of Murphy to contend with, and Duke IS recruiting Jabari Parker and Julius Randle...

Dude, whose side are you on anyway? I thought you were a Duke fan. You're doing UK's spin job for them.

Attention Amile Jefferson: Do not read the posts from 'Starter'.

Just kidding.

[Steven43]

Yes, and UK is still going after Bennett too, as Duke is after Rodney but latter is ineliigible next year.

Various rating agencies list Amile on average at about 6' 9" 200 pounds, some as low as 6'7" 190. As was the case with Ryan his freshman year, too frail to compete with Ryan and Josh both about 235 pounds, even if Amile skill set is better than Josh. With Howell for State or possibly Tony Parker for Duke in the paint, Amile would get crushed.

Amile is a decent player apparently, but no Kevin Durant or Brandon Wright or Tayshaun Prince or CJ Leslie caliber just yet.

Duke's need is for a tall WF to compete with Alex every day in practice. If he is sufficiently ready Amile and Alex could jointly total about 30 minutes at WF with Dre getting the other 10 at WF, plus some minutes at SG. Alex may displace Josh as the primary PF sub which would open up a few more WF minutes for Amile and Dre.

Comparable to Duke's MP2, MP3, Ryan and Josh, State has Howell, Vandenberg, CJ and deThay.

Comparable to Duke's gunner Andre who has neither the ideal height nor the weight of a typcial WF but does have hops, State has Scott Wood who has the height but not the weight to play forward. Amiles's comparably sized competition at WF has not played a college game yet, be that Alex or T J Warren.

Duke has a little more depth at combo slots but State has enough with LoBrown, Purvis and Graham.

With rosters so comparable it boils down to Amile's comfort level with the two programs, coaches and players with Duke obviously offering more TV exposure but also a more rigorous academic schedule.

We can hold off on discussions of how the 5 guards share time across combo spots plus whatever they can earn as small WF, until after we know if Amile joins and whether he can play WF or like Henson can only play a tall frail PF.

What exactly is 'WF'? Wing forward? Are you making up new position names now? What exactly does a wing forward do on the court? Maybe the game is passing me by.

[ChillinDuke]

What exactly is 'WF'? Wing forward? Are you making up new position names now? What exactly does a wing forward do on the court? Maybe the game is passing me by.

You will likely get slightly different takes on this. But generally a wing forward is a tweener, 'tween a guard and a forward. This means anywhere from 6'4" ish to 6'8" ish with a game that is between that of a traditional SG and a traditional PF. Thus, a wing forward is not just a SF, but has the versatility to play any position between (and including) the traditional concepts of a SG, SF, and PF (think college-style PF).

My personal take is that a wing forward is defined best by a player like Kyle Singler. Skills to spot up and shoot threes, slash to the rim, or post up. Versatile on defense to guard large forwards but switch on smaller, quicker guards.

Again, you will get nuanced takes on this, but this is the general gist.

- Chillin

[miramar]

DeCock agrees that Leslie's return will affect Amile's decision:

"Top-100 recruit Amile Jefferson still has N.C. State on his list, but probably won’t want to play behind Leslie and Richard Howell."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/04/...#storylink=cpy

[mkline09]

I personally would rather have a kid like Amile Jefferson on next years team. He has done the opposite of Tony Parker and been quiet about his recruitment and not given nearly as many dates about his decision just to turn around and change them. He seems sincerely interested in academics and has a lot of respect for K and the Duke program. I think it would be a great pick up for Duke.

[CDu]

DeCock agrees that Leslie's return will affect Amile's decision:

"Top-100 recruit Amile Jefferson still has N.C. State on his list, but probably won’t want to play behind Leslie and Richard Howell."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/04/...#storylink=cpy

By that logic, he probably won't want to play behind Kelly and Mason either.

[SupaDave]

We all get caught in who "starts" but I thought Scheyer getting starter minutes as a sixth man would have shown most that if you're good, then you play - a LOT.

[ACCBBallFan]

Too late to edit. In a prior post I accidentally referred to NC St guard as Graham and meant Tyler Lewis, not Torian Graham.