It certainly opens up more minutes at the backup PF at State. Painter was the third big last year and as such played plenty of time at both PF and C. Next year, they'll add Vandenburg back to the rotation. I would have expected like 15-20mpg for Painter, 5-10mpg for Vandenburg, and 5-10mpg for Harris, with Howell and Leslie getting the rest of the minutes (anywhere from 45 to 55 depending on foul trouble). Without Painter, I'd expect Vandenburg's minutes to equal basically equal 40 - Howell's minutes. That leaves 10-15 mpg (maybe more, if Vandenburg isn't up to the challenge and De Thaey can't fill that role as the third C) at the PF. Those minutes would presumably be picked up by either Harris, De Thaey, or Jefferson (if he goes there).
Basically, Painter's departure sort of frees up time, but not enough to be a deal maker in my opinion. Leslie is the key to big minutes at State. If he stays, there won't be more than 10-15 minutes (at the most) available to Jefferson next year. If Leslie goes, Jefferson will compete with Harris for the starting spot.
It definitely hurts State as a team, though. Painter was the only guy suited to play both PF and C for them. So he provided a very useful player off the bench. They were going to potentially have a very deep and versatile frontcourt with Painter, Vandenburg, and Harris coming off the bench and De Thaey available in an absolute crisis. Now, it puts a lot more importance on Leslie returning and Harris/Vandenburg/De Thaey being useful backups.