I have no idea whether Amile Jefferson is better/worse/the same than Lance Thomas

I do know that they are rated EXACTLY the same place in the RSCI (which averages recruiting ratings): No. 20

Of course, that doesn't mean that they are exactly the same -- is the Class of 2012 better or worse than the Class of 2006 (which included Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Ty Lawson ... and at No. 28 John Scheyer)?

Still, I think it's fair to suggest they are similar prospects in terms of impact.

The point I want to make is that if any of you remember this board in the spring of 2006 when we were waiting on Lance to make his decision, he suddenly became the greatest, most important recruit in Duke history. He was being projected as a program changer ... everybody had him projected into the 2006-07 starting lineup. I said then -- and I suggest now -- that late recruits are almost ALWAYS overrated by the fans.

Jefferson, like Thomas, is a nice prospect and I'm sure he'll add a lot to our program. But if you think he's a kid who's going to come in and have a major impact from Day One, I suspect you are fooling yourself. I know one prominent recruiting guru who likes Jefferson, but says he's not ready to be a major competitor on the college level -- physically he's probably closer to the young Ryan Kelly than the young Lance Thomas.

Well, Lance became a key member of our national championship team -- his senior year. Ryan became a contributor as a sophomore and a key contributor as a junior.

Please try to keep the pursuit of Mr. Jefferson in perspective. I'd love to have him join the program, but unless a lot of recruiting guys are wrong (and that's possible), he's not an immediate game-changer. In terms of next year's team, Tony Parker would be a far more significant get (since he fills a glaring need). Shabazz Mohammad would be a far, far more significant get -- he IS a game-changer.