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  1. #241
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    T. Parker and Jefferson overlap?

    Let us imagine a scenario in which Duke has Parker but not Jefferson.

    Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Parker first big off the bench.

    Mason sits, Parker plays the 5. Kelly sits, Parker plays the 5.

    Scenario 2. Duke has Jefferson but not Parker.

    Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Jefferson first big off the bench.

    Mason sits, Kelly moves to the 5, Jefferson plays the 4.

    Kelly sits Jefferson plays the 4.

    Now, this is an oversimplification. Perhaps Hairston is the first big off the bench. Perhaps Marshall is the back-up 5. Perhaps Dawkins redshirts and Jefferson plays more 3 than originally planned.

    But it does show how Jefferson and Parker's decisions could impact each other.
    And as I mentioned elsewhere, I don't think that Parker and Mason sharing the floor is a good defensive alignment. As such, I don't think we'd see much of those two together. So scenario 1 would instead be Mason+Kelly, then Parker+Kelly, then Mason+Hairston, and so on, with Hairston subbing for Kelly at the 4 and Parker subbing for Mason at the 5. There may be a couple of minutes per game where we go to such a lineup, but I don't think it would be used often at all.

    That's why I said I don't see them overlapping significantly enough for Parker's decision to really impact Jefferson's minutes. Not nearly as much as the decisions of Bennett and Pollard. I think Parker's decision might impact Marshall's playing time, but not so much Jefferson.

  2. #242
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    And as I mentioned elsewhere, I don't think that Parker and Mason sharing the floor is a good defensive alignment. As such, I don't think we'd see much of those two together. So scenario 1 would instead be Mason+Kelly, then Parker+Kelly, then Mason+Hairston, and so on, with Hairston subbing for Kelly at the 4 and Parker subbing for Mason at the 5. There may be a couple of minutes per game where we go to such a lineup, but I don't think it would be used often at all.

    That's why I said I don't see them overlapping significantly enough for Parker's decision to really impact Jefferson's minutes. Not nearly as much as the decisions of Bennett and Pollard. I think Parker's decision might impact Marshall's playing time, but not so much Jefferson.
    We'll have to agree to disagree then. I can very much see Mason Plumlee and Tony Parker sharing the floor.

    Assuming Marshall Plumlee gets some burn and assuming that Mason Plumlee plays somewhere in the 28-32 mpg range, your scenario seems to limit Tony Parker to about 5-7 mpg.

    But the key question here isn't what we think. It's what Tony Parker and Amile Jefferson think. Do they see themselves as mutually exclusive?

    I do think the possible absence of Dawkins from next year's team does change the equation. Alex Murphy is not going to play 40 minutes and I'd rather see Jefferson guard ACC wings than see Hairston guard ACC wings. I'm not sure Jefferson has the skill set at present to thrive on the perimeter on offense but he should be able to guard them.

  3. #243
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    I know Tony is a banger and wide-bodied but he measured in a 6'7 at the Nike Hoop Summit...I don't know if that's who I want playing the 5 for us, I don't see why he couldn't play next to Mason as our 4

  4. #244
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    We'll have to agree to disagree then. I can very much see Mason Plumlee and Tony Parker sharing the floor.

    Assuming Marshall Plumlee gets some burn and assuming that Mason Plumlee plays somewhere in the 28-32 mpg range, your scenario seems to limit Tony Parker to about 5-7 mpg.
    Yeah, and that's why I don't think we'll be getting Parker. Mason is entrenched as the starting C and will play 28+ mpg. So I think Parker would be competing with Marshall for the other 10-12 mpg. That's probably not what he wants. Of course, we'll see how it plays out.

    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    But the key question here isn't what we think. It's what Tony Parker and Amile Jefferson think. Do they see themselves as mutually exclusive?

    I do think the possible absence of Dawkins from next year's team does change the equation. Alex Murphy is not going to play 40 minutes and I'd rather see Jefferson guard ACC wings than see Hairston guard ACC wings. I'm not sure Jefferson has the skill set at present to thrive on the perimeter on offense but he should be able to guard them.
    I agree wholeheartedly with this. It's not a great fit for Jefferson at the 3, but someone's going to have to do it and I don't want it to be Hairston or Sulaimon. Might as well be Jefferson.

  5. #245
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    I know Tony is a banger and wide-bodied but he measured in a 6'7 at the Nike Hoop Summit...I don't know if that's who I want playing the 5 for us, I don't see why he couldn't play next to Mason as our 4
    Because he's S-L-O-W. He'd get torched by opposing college PF.

  6. #246
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Because he's S-L-O-W. He'd get torched by opposing college PF.
    And Ryan is....?!? I haven't seen enough of Tony to say how quick or slow he is laterally, how defends of the hedge etc...maybe you have, but I just don't see him from what I have seen being a HUGE mismatch defensively if played at the 4...

    If he's slow, undersized, doesn't seem to have much of an outside game at this point, whats all the fuss about? lol
    Last edited by dcar1985; 04-20-2012 at 07:39 PM.

  7. #247
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    And Ryan is....?!? I haven't seen enough of Tony to say how quick or slow he is laterally, how defends of the hedge etc...maybe you have, but I just don't see him from what I have seen being a HUGE mismatch defensively if played at the 4...

    If he's slow, undersized, doesn't seem to have much of an outside game at this point, whats all the fuss about? lo
    Kelly is quicker, and much taller/longer. And even he's probably too slow/not-quick to play great defense at PF. Parker is less quick than Kelly.

    I agree with your last sentence. Several of us have been in the camp that he's probably not an immediate impact kind of player. In fact, several felt he wasn't really a guy we should expect more than ~15mpg quality minutes next year, even without Mason. I think some folks saw him as the next Elton Brand, but he's far far from that. He's definitely talented in the post, but he plays below the rim and he's slow.

  8. #248
    Quote Originally Posted by oldnavy View Post
    Yea, I am kind of confused by the lack of talk about MP3. Are the expectations that even after a year in the system he is not really going to be much of a factor?
    I agree with you that Marshall hasn't yet grabbed much talk on EK. I assume that once Mason returned, and because we're still waiting to hear from Parker and Jefferson, Marshall slides ever further from view.

    Moreover, whereas it's commonly assumed, if unspoken, that Alex could have played some this season, it's also assumed [I think] that Marshall wasn't quite ready. There's no thread entitled, "Was redshirting Marshall Plumlee the right choice?"

    I infer from the very fact that you dare even to mention Marshall that you think it's unwise to ignore his talent. Anyway, I think it's shortsighted to ignore him. Tony will be "competing" with Marshall and Josh for PT. From what I've seen, Tony is smoother than Marshall on O, but Marshall is the better, and more enthusiastic, defender. And Marshall will jaw at opponents more than occasionally, though not, I take it, as much as he will irritate Mason in practice. I feared that Mason would not come back, knowing he'd have to put it with Marshall's barbs for another year.

    Thread relevance: I like Amile a whole lot. He's different, good different, different different.

  9. #249
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Moreover, whereas it's commonly assumed, if unspoken, that Alex could have played some this season, it's also assumed [I think] that Marshall wasn't quite ready. There's no thread entitled, "Was redshirting Marshall Plumlee the right choice?".
    while I agree that marshall probably wasn't ready, part of the reason there was no above mentioned thread was it made sense to redshirt mp3 given mp1, mp2, and Ryan commanding a majority of the minutes

  10. #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Because he's S-L-O-W. He'd get torched by opposing college PF.
    But he wouldn't have to play PF. When he and Mason are on the court, Parker plays the 5, Mason the 4. When he and Kelly are on the floor, Parker plays the 5, Kelly plays the 4. When he and Hairston are on the floor, Parker plays the 5, Hairston plays the 4.

    That way, he gets 15-20 minutes per game. Mason played the 4 whenever he and Miles were on the floor, the 5 when he and Kelly were on the floor. Not re-inventing the wheel here, folks. Just plug Parker in for Miles.

  11. #251
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    ... part of the reason there was no above mentioned thread was it made sense to redshirt mp3 given mp1, mp2, and Ryan commanding a majority of the minutes
    You're right. In my [maybe weak] defense, I'd say the fact that K redshirted anyone, much less 2 guys, might have led to a bit more discussion of Marshall. And he still seems the person least remembered in the various threads pointing to next year.

    And the substantive point, mine at least, is that I expect Marshall to play some his R-Fr year. If we have 9 scholarship players, I'll guess 10 mpg early season, 5 late. Actually, the really interesting thing will be to see how much PT he gets v. UK that early, and in the very tough B4A tourney.

    Intermediate range, 2013-'14, he could easily be the starting C, and "need" to play big minutes [if, say, no Parker and no Randle].

  12. #252
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    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    You're right. In my [maybe weak] defense, I'd say the fact that K redshirted anyone, much less 2 guys, might have led to a bit more discussion of Marshall. And he still seems the person least remembered in the various threads pointing to next year.

    And the substantive point, mine at least, is that I expect Marshall to play some his R-Fr year. If we have 9 scholarship players, I'll guess 10 mpg early season, 5 late. Actually, the really interesting thing will be to see how much PT he gets v. UK that early, and in the very tough B4A tourney.

    Intermediate range, 2013-'14, he could easily be the starting C, and "need" to play big minutes [if, say, no Parker and no Randle].
    I think Marshall may surprise us this year. The RS year helped him get acclimated, and he practiced daily against four very different post players, all with different styles. MP3 is a true back to the basket player with better footwork than either of his brothers. He just lacks their strength, and to a lesser degree, their athletic ability. That said, the kid has moxie and grit. His demeanor is very different than his brothers, and I think that will make him a better defender than Mason/Miles before all is said and done.

    I don't care for his shooting form, but that is minor if he can make shots consistently. Another difference is MP3 did not RS in High School as MP1/2 did, so the RS year in college puts him on the same development time line physically as them. Once MP3 gets his weight up, and gets stronger, it will greatly help him.

    The good news is, with Mason and Ryan back, MP3 does not have to be a star out of the gate. I can't wait to see the ball dumped down to Marshall on the low block and watch him attempt to go to work down there with traditional post moves. It's going to be interesting to see how he fares. I do think his defense willl be ahead of his offense early on, but that is ok too.

    One thing is for certain, MP3 is going to play with passion, and isn't going to back down from anyone. A lot like Tyler Thornton in that regard. Players like that are always valuable.

    Wainstein Report Page 19 Section G:
    In men’s basketball, academic counselor Burgess McSwain (“McSwain”) and
    her successor Wayne Walden routinely called Crowder to arrange classes for their
    players.
    Roy Williams Of Nazareth had no knowledge however. He is sinless.

  13. #253
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    But he wouldn't have to play PF. When he and Mason are on the court, Parker plays the 5, Mason the 4. When he and Kelly are on the floor, Parker plays the 5, Kelly plays the 4. When he and Hairston are on the floor, Parker plays the 5, Hairston plays the 4.

    That way, he gets 15-20 minutes per game. Mason played the 4 whenever he and Miles were on the floor, the 5 when he and Kelly were on the floor. Not re-inventing the wheel here, folks. Just plug Parker in for Miles.
    Mason is less quick than Miles, and as such Miles could take the quicker player. When Mason is by far the quicker of your bigs, that is a problem. I just don't see it as being as simple as plugging Parker in for Miles. With Mason guarding the 4 and Parker the 5 we have a defensive liability at both spots. The other way around and we have good defense at the 5 but awful defense at the 4. The two are just not a good pairing.

    In any case,I have a feeling that this is a moot point and that Parker will go elsewhere. But we'll see.

  14. #254
    Parker may be a tad slow but he is wide body to try and get around. I expect he will use that to hsi advantage much like Reggie Johnson does.

    Kelly may be slow but he plays smart, draws a lot of charging fouls, tends to attempt blocks jumping straight up rather than jumping into his man, getsa his fair share of steals by anticipating well.

    I agree with Jim, just insert Tony in Miles spot which was 20.5 minutes minus whatever MP3 garners. Tony has much better hands, much worse hops.

    I also agree Josh bulked up at 235 cannot guard SF's and Sheed would be more undersized than Dre was. Of the guards, Tyler has the bulk and aptitude to take on that role but that is when he fouls a lot on switches when he has a big under the basket. If he started guarding his SF on hte wing rather than as result of a switch he might not have to intentionally foul as much.

    If Tony and no Amile, Josh has to lose weight much like Kyle did. If Amile and no Tony, agree with Jim that he has best prospects after Alex of guarding a SF and his offense there would be no worse than Tyler's for different reasons.

    If Amile and Tony, then most everybody can be at their normal positions

    Quinn/Tyler

    Seth/ Sheed

    Alex/ Amile or slimmed down Josh

    Ryan/ bulked up Josh or undersized Amile or MP2 and PT opens up when Ryan graduates pending new recruits

    MP2/ Tony or MP3 whoever is most ready but PT opens up when Mason graduates

  15. #255
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Because he's S-L-O-W. He'd get torched by opposing college PF.
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    And Ryan is....?!? I haven't seen enough of Tony to say how quick or slow he is laterally, how defends of the hedge etc...maybe you have, but I just don't see him from what I have seen being a HUGE mismatch defensively if played at the 4...

    If he's slow, undersized, doesn't seem to have much of an outside game at this point, whats all the fuss about? lol
    Jay Bilas was asked at the 1986 Final Four in Dallas about his limitations, as he prepared to go up against Louisville Center Pervis Ellison, who was taller and faster. Jay said straight-faced: "What I lack in size I make up for in lack of speed..." The interviewer, reportedly, had to stop for a few moments because he was snickering so hard.

    There's more to rebounding (and scoring and defense) than just one's simple height and "lateral speed."

    I don't see any reason why TP and MP2 couldn't play side-by-side, but agree that it would probably be TP getting most of the "5" minutes in that scenrio. In fact a frontline rotation that included TP, MP2, Ryan Kelly, Amile Jefferson, and Murphy could be downright scary.
    Last edited by -bdbd; 04-20-2012 at 11:08 PM.
    -BDBD

  16. #256
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    Jay Bilas was asked at the 1986 Final Four in Dallas about his limitations, as he prepared to go up against Louisville Center Pervis Ellison, who was taller and faster. Jay said straight-faced: "What I lack in size I make up for in lack of speed..." The interviewer, reportedly, had to stop for a few moments because he was snickering so hard.
    Funny story - on the other hand, I'm not sure recalling the 1986 Bilas-Ellison matchup (with the guy we're recruiting being Bilas) is the best one to make in favor of TP given .... wait, what happened in that game? I refuse to recall

  17. #257
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    I am getting lost with all the Tony Parker/ Mason Plumlee/Ryan Kelly talk in a thread about Amile Jefferson.

    1st we got Marshall who I would much rather be in the game over Tony even if we get Tony (which I doubt)

    2nd how do people figure Amile's playing time at SF and PF? SF next year is going to more than likely Alex primarily with Andre backing him up and PF is going to be Kelly, Josh and Alex. Amile would not start or get more time than any of these guys.

  18. #258
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    Quote Originally Posted by JNort View Post
    I am getting lost with all the Tony Parker/ Mason Plumlee/Ryan Kelly talk in a thread about Amile Jefferson.

    1st we got Marshall who I would much rather be in the game over Tony even if we get Tony (which I doubt)

    2nd how do people figure Amile's playing time at SF and PF? SF next year is going to more than likely Alex primarily with Andre backing him up and PF is going to be Kelly, Josh and Alex. Amile would not start or get more time than any of these guys.
    We have no guarantee that Dawkins will play next season. As such, it's hard to project Alex Murphy playing much PF. He might be Duke's only true 3. Maybe some end-of-game, protecting-the-lead-lineups will see Murphy at the 4. That could be about it.

    As for PF, I don't think it calls for a dramatic leap-of-faith to see Jefferson challenge Hairston for playing time. Depending on what happens with Dawkins and Parker, I suspect Jefferson could easily see 15-20 mpg next season and move into a starting spot as a sophomore.

  19. #259
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I still don't think Parker's decision affects Jefferson's decision. The two play different positions entirely. Parker will not play at PF, nor will Mason. Jefferson would be competing with Hairston for the backup PF minutes and would likely be asked to play SF (if Dawkins redshirts).

    I would think that the decision of Anthony Bennett and Devonta Pollard (who would eliminate the available minutes at Kentucky) are the more relevant decisions.
    According to Dave Telep, Pollard is deciding between Texas, Missouri, Georgetown, and Alabama. No mention of Kentucky.

  20. #260
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    We have no guarantee that Dawkins will play next season. As such, it's hard to project Alex Murphy playing much PF. He might be Duke's only true 3. Maybe some end-of-game, protecting-the-lead-lineups will see Murphy at the 4. That could be about it.

    As for PF, I don't think it calls for a dramatic leap-of-faith to see Jefferson challenge Hairston for playing time. Depending on what happens with Dawkins and Parker, I suspect Jefferson could easily see 15-20 mpg next season and move into a starting spot as a sophomore.
    Clearly right. If Dawkins doesn't play and Jefferson doesn't arrive, Murphy is it as a traditional 3 (perhaps even if Jefferson does arrive, of course). However, Duke really only needs defense for the 3 from Sulaimon/Hairston. Offense can be more flexible. It seems pretty rare for one opponent to have all their minutes at the 3 covered by guys who can abuse Sulaimon with power and (a trimmed) Hairston with wing skills. Many teams won't even have one guys like that although some will. Shabazz would seem the sort of player who could but he is very special. His sub would seem liable to be guardable by either Sulaimon or Hairston.

    As an aside, perhaps the best way to deal with the Buzz is to have Murphy either take him into the post and lean on him or run him around on the outside (as far as either can be done within the offense). Tire him out (Murphy too, of course, but Duke could thrive without Murphy more easily than UCLA could thrive without Bazz). Obviously the same strategy would apply to Sulaimon (running outside) and Hairston (lean on him) if/when they get stuck with a super player. "The best defense is a tiring offense" my 2 cents.

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