That's why I said I don't see them overlapping significantly enough for Parker's decision to really impact Jefferson's minutes. Not nearly as much as the decisions of Bennett and Pollard. I think Parker's decision might impact Marshall's playing time, but not so much Jefferson.
Assuming Marshall Plumlee gets some burn and assuming that Mason Plumlee plays somewhere in the 28-32 mpg range, your scenario seems to limit Tony Parker to about 5-7 mpg.
But the key question here isn't what we think. It's what Tony Parker and Amile Jefferson think. Do they see themselves as mutually exclusive?
I do think the possible absence of Dawkins from next year's team does change the equation. Alex Murphy is not going to play 40 minutes and I'd rather see Jefferson guard ACC wings than see Hairston guard ACC wings. I'm not sure Jefferson has the skill set at present to thrive on the perimeter on offense but he should be able to guard them.
I know Tony is a banger and wide-bodied but he measured in a 6'7 at the Nike Hoop Summit...I don't know if that's who I want playing the 5 for us, I don't see why he couldn't play next to Mason as our 4
If he's slow, undersized, doesn't seem to have much of an outside game at this point, whats all the fuss about? lol
Last edited by dcar1985; 04-20-2012 at 07:39 PM.
I agree with your last sentence. Several of us have been in the camp that he's probably not an immediate impact kind of player. In fact, several felt he wasn't really a guy we should expect more than ~15mpg quality minutes next year, even without Mason. I think some folks saw him as the next Elton Brand, but he's far far from that. He's definitely talented in the post, but he plays below the rim and he's slow.
Moreover, whereas it's commonly assumed, if unspoken, that Alex could have played some this season, it's also assumed [I think] that Marshall wasn't quite ready. There's no thread entitled, "Was redshirting Marshall Plumlee the right choice?"
I infer from the very fact that you dare even to mention Marshall that you think it's unwise to ignore his talent. Anyway, I think it's shortsighted to ignore him. Tony will be "competing" with Marshall and Josh for PT. From what I've seen, Tony is smoother than Marshall on O, but Marshall is the better, and more enthusiastic, defender. And Marshall will jaw at opponents more than occasionally, though not, I take it, as much as he will irritate Mason in practice. I feared that Mason would not come back, knowing he'd have to put it with Marshall's barbs for another year.
Thread relevance: I like Amile a whole lot. He's different, good different, different different.
That way, he gets 15-20 minutes per game. Mason played the 4 whenever he and Miles were on the floor, the 5 when he and Kelly were on the floor. Not re-inventing the wheel here, folks. Just plug Parker in for Miles.
And the substantive point, mine at least, is that I expect Marshall to play some his R-Fr year. If we have 9 scholarship players, I'll guess 10 mpg early season, 5 late. Actually, the really interesting thing will be to see how much PT he gets v. UK that early, and in the very tough B4A tourney.
Intermediate range, 2013-'14, he could easily be the starting C, and "need" to play big minutes [if, say, no Parker and no Randle].
I don't care for his shooting form, but that is minor if he can make shots consistently. Another difference is MP3 did not RS in High School as MP1/2 did, so the RS year in college puts him on the same development time line physically as them. Once MP3 gets his weight up, and gets stronger, it will greatly help him.
The good news is, with Mason and Ryan back, MP3 does not have to be a star out of the gate. I can't wait to see the ball dumped down to Marshall on the low block and watch him attempt to go to work down there with traditional post moves. It's going to be interesting to see how he fares. I do think his defense willl be ahead of his offense early on, but that is ok too.
One thing is for certain, MP3 is going to play with passion, and isn't going to back down from anyone. A lot like Tyler Thornton in that regard. Players like that are always valuable.
Duke FB 2013 Coastal Division Football Champions
In any case,I have a feeling that this is a moot point and that Parker will go elsewhere. But we'll see.
Parker may be a tad slow but he is wide body to try and get around. I expect he will use that to hsi advantage much like Reggie Johnson does.
Kelly may be slow but he plays smart, draws a lot of charging fouls, tends to attempt blocks jumping straight up rather than jumping into his man, getsa his fair share of steals by anticipating well.
I agree with Jim, just insert Tony in Miles spot which was 20.5 minutes minus whatever MP3 garners. Tony has much better hands, much worse hops.
I also agree Josh bulked up at 235 cannot guard SF's and Sheed would be more undersized than Dre was. Of the guards, Tyler has the bulk and aptitude to take on that role but that is when he fouls a lot on switches when he has a big under the basket. If he started guarding his SF on hte wing rather than as result of a switch he might not have to intentionally foul as much.
If Tony and no Amile, Josh has to lose weight much like Kyle did. If Amile and no Tony, agree with Jim that he has best prospects after Alex of guarding a SF and his offense there would be no worse than Tyler's for different reasons.
If Amile and Tony, then most everybody can be at their normal positions
Alex/ Amile or slimmed down Josh
Ryan/ bulked up Josh or undersized Amile or MP2 and PT opens up when Ryan graduates pending new recruits
MP2/ Tony or MP3 whoever is most ready but PT opens up when Mason graduates
There's more to rebounding (and scoring and defense) than just one's simple height and "lateral speed."
I don't see any reason why TP and MP2 couldn't play side-by-side, but agree that it would probably be TP getting most of the "5" minutes in that scenrio. In fact a frontline rotation that included TP, MP2, Ryan Kelly, Amile Jefferson, and Murphy could be downright scary.
Last edited by -bdbd; 04-20-2012 at 11:08 PM.
I am getting lost with all the Tony Parker/ Mason Plumlee/Ryan Kelly talk in a thread about Amile Jefferson.
1st we got Marshall who I would much rather be in the game over Tony even if we get Tony (which I doubt)
2nd how do people figure Amile's playing time at SF and PF? SF next year is going to more than likely Alex primarily with Andre backing him up and PF is going to be Kelly, Josh and Alex. Amile would not start or get more time than any of these guys.
As for PF, I don't think it calls for a dramatic leap-of-faith to see Jefferson challenge Hairston for playing time. Depending on what happens with Dawkins and Parker, I suspect Jefferson could easily see 15-20 mpg next season and move into a starting spot as a sophomore.
As an aside, perhaps the best way to deal with the Buzz is to have Murphy either take him into the post and lean on him or run him around on the outside (as far as either can be done within the offense). Tire him out (Murphy too, of course, but Duke could thrive without Murphy more easily than UCLA could thrive without Bazz). Obviously the same strategy would apply to Sulaimon (running outside) and Hairston (lean on him) if/when they get stuck with a super player. "The best defense is a tiring offense" my 2 cents.