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  1. #61
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    Feb 2010
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    Pittsburgh, PA
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilsfan View Post
    Hope we land at least one of the three recruits we are recruiting for next year.
    I know it's heresy to say it, but I'm more interested in us recruiting Jefferson rather than Shabazz. (Not that the two are mutually exclusive.) I've soured a bit on the yearly drive to get the number one recruit. These recruits are never awful, but often there's just a world of hype attached to them that no college player should have to play under. And few justify their hype.

    Year after year, the real college standouts usually seem to be in the top twenty-five recruits but not always the top three.

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Chicago, IL
    Quote Originally Posted by Andre Buckner Fan View Post
    I know it's heresy to say it, but I'm more interested in us recruiting Jefferson rather than Shabazz. (Not that the two are mutually exclusive.) I've soured a bit on the yearly drive to get the number one recruit. These recruits are never awful, but often there's just a world of hype attached to them that no college player should have to play under. And few justify their hype.

    Year after year, the real college standouts usually seem to be in the top twenty-five recruits but not always the top three.

    Agreed, the past 5 years there are some odd circumstances surrounding some of the most hyped recruits (BJ Mullens, Samardo Samuels, Enes Kanter, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday, Xavier Henry, Josh Selby). I'm glad we got we we got with Kyrie and Austin, but I bet Amile would be a very good get.

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Andre Buckner Fan View Post
    I know it's heresy to say it, but I'm more interested in us recruiting Jefferson rather than Shabazz. (Not that the two are mutually exclusive.) I've soured a bit on the yearly drive to get the number one recruit. These recruits are never awful, but often there's just a world of hype attached to them that no college player should have to play under. And few justify their hype.
    You may have a point about "justifying their hype," but that's as much the media's fault for generating it, and your own fault for buying into the hype. Putting HB on a preseason All-AA team? That was silly. Kid was GREAT as a freshman, but no one deserves that much hype short of Lebron, so you should be smart enough to not buy into it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Andre Buckner Fan View Post
    Year after year, the real college standouts usually seem to be in the top twenty-five recruits but not always the top three.
    A ridiculous claim. See below. The top 3 produces a ton of college studs.

    Relatedly, Kedsy has broken down this data time and time again for when people think recruits will start at Duke and when they won't and the OVERHWELMING conclusion is there is a MARKED difference between a top 3-5 player and basically anyone else, at least in terms of players Duke recruits. The data below has similar themes.

    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoCrazy84 View Post
    Agreed, the past 5 years there are some odd circumstances surrounding some of the most hyped recruits (BJ Mullens, Samardo Samuels, Enes Kanter, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday, Xavier Henry, Josh Selby). I'm glad we got we we got with Kyrie and Austin, but I bet Amile would be a very good get.
    Well I disagree, and the data supports me. Let's look at RSCI top 3 for past few years and you tell me these guys aren't studs. (BTW, only 2 of the guys you mention are top 3 guys: Jrue and Jennings, with Samardo being #4, so your subjective assertion that these other guys were "the most hyped" seems off-base.)

    Class of 2011
    1. Anthony Davis
    2. Austin
    3. Michael Gilchrist

    No overhyping here. AD and MG will be top 5 picks and Austin is a likely lottery pick, All-ACC and ACC ROY, who was just the 1st freshman to lead Duke in scoring since 1986. Sounds like hype was about right.

    Class of 2010
    1. Harrison
    T-2. Kyrie
    T-2. Sullinger

    You can quibble if you want, and claim that HB is overhyped, which I would even grant, but I would point you to my first paragraph above about buying into media hype.

    Bottomline: these guys are all flatout college studs that would start on ANY team in the country, PERIOD, and will all be lottery picks. Kyrie was the #1 overall pick. Harrison was the leading scorer 2 years in a row on an elite 8 team both years and is a likely top 5 pick in the draft, certainly a lock for the top 10. Sullinger was the leading scorer and rebounder on a final four team and All-AA his Freshman and Sophomore years (HB was honorable mention both years).

    (Quibble if you must about how HB didn't bring a championship to Franklin St, and seemed to not want to play inside...and there's obviously lots of ragging we can do on the kid for being so concerned with his "brand"....Sullinger would have been a top 5 or 3 pick last year and hurt his stock in the tournament this year, but again he's the top scorer and rebounder on a final four team, and 2 time 1st team AA. I think these guys are bonafide college studs.)

    Class of 2009
    1. Derrick Favors
    2. John Wall
    3. Demarcus Cousins

    No overhyping here, these guys went 1,3,5 in the 2010 draft with Wall and Cousins being 1st team AA and Favors being ACC ROY. Sound like college studs to me.

    Class of 2008
    1. Brandon Jennings
    2. Jrue Holiday
    3. Tyreke Evans

    - BJ did not play in college so n/a.
    - Jrue Holiday is the first non college stud on this list, and even he had a very solid year averaging 8.5 pts, 4rebs, and 3 asts in a crowded UCLA backcourt where he had to defer to seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp, while also playing off the ball.
    - Tyreke Evans was a stud as the leading scorer on a Memphis team that won 33 games and was the #4 pick overall
    - You mentioned Samardo Samuels who was #4 on the RSCI -- he averaged 12 & 5 his freshman year, very good numbers, in a crowded frontcourt that included Earl Clark and Terrence Williams (averaging a combined 26 & 18/game), then led the team as a sophomore in rebounding and scoring. He went undrafted as he's undersized and not terribly athletic, but he was pretty darn good college player.

    Class of 2007
    1. OJ Mayo
    2. Kevin Love
    3. Eric Gordon

    No over hyping here. All 3 were top 10 picks in the 08 draft and all were major studs for their teams.

    So that's 2 potential guys out of 16: Jrue Holiday and Samardo Samuels that weren't studs, with Samuels being a very good player. I'd say the top 3 produces some winners.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Nice breakdown SilkyJ. IMO the only reasons to NOT want a top 3-5 player are a.) if you are conceptually or morally opposed to players who go one-and-done b.) if you think that having a player come in just for a year negatively affects the team in the long run, because other guys don't come or don't develop who could make contributions over a longer period of time.

    Both of these are completely valid reasons for not wanting to go after players like Shabazz. But to say that lower ranked players are better is ridiculous. Yes there are exceptions to the rule but as Silky and others have said, if you want a guy that's going to step onto campus and be an immediate impact guy, he's probably going to have to be ranked in the top 5.

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post

    Class of 2008
    1. Brandon Jennings
    2. Jrue Holiday
    3. Tyreke Evans

    - BJ did not play in college so n/a.
    - Jrue Holiday is the first non college stud on this list, and even he had a very solid year averaging 8.5 pts, 4rebs, and 3 asts in a crowded UCLA backcourt where he had to defer to seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp, while also playing off the ball.
    - Tyreke Evans was a stud as the leading scorer on a Memphis team that won 33 games and was the #4 pick overall
    Jrue Holiday plays 34 minutes per game on the playoff-bound 76ers. He averages more points than both Andre Igoudala and Elton Brand. I'd say he's a stud, even if he was taking a backseat to Darren Collison while in college.

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Columbus OH 614
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Jrue Holiday plays 34 minutes per game on the playoff-bound 76ers. He averages more points than both Andre Igoudala and Elton Brand. I'd say he's a stud, even if he was taking a backseat to Darren Collison while in college.
    Pretty sure the op was talking about during their time in college...

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    I'd say he's a stud, even if he was taking a backseat to Darren Collison while in college.
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    Pretty sure the op was talking about during their time in college...
    Yes, Jrue was a point guard who got stuck behind senior and 3-time Final Four point Guard Darren Collison during his only season in college.

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    Quote Originally Posted by Andre Buckner Fan View Post
    I know it's heresy to say it, but I'm more interested in us recruiting Jefferson rather than Shabazz. (Not that the two are mutually exclusive.) I've soured a bit on the yearly drive to get the number one recruit. These recruits are never awful, but often there's just a world of hype attached to them that no college player should have to play under. And few justify their hype.

    Year after year, the real college standouts usually seem to be in the top twenty-five recruits but not always the top three.
    I think if you watched Shabazz play in the two recent televised games (hoops summit/McD) you would feel differently. This guy appears to be a game changing talent along the lines of a Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis or Derrick Rose. I think he has a good chance to be the NCAA player of the year next year and the first pick in the 2013 draft (at worst 2nd behind Noel). He would probably be the #2 pick this year.

    With him, we're a top 5 team next year. Without him, regardless of whether Parker or Jefferson come, we're in the 12 - 18 range.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Chesterfield, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    You may have a point about "justifying their hype," but that's as much the media's fault for generating it, and your own fault for buying into the hype. Putting HB on a preseason All-AA team? That was silly. Kid was GREAT as a freshman, but no one deserves that much hype short of Lebron, so you should be smart enough to not buy into it.



    A ridiculous claim. See below. The top 3 produces a ton of college studs.

    Relatedly, Kedsy has broken down this data time and time again for when people think recruits will start at Duke and when they won't and the OVERHWELMING conclusion is there is a MARKED difference between a top 3-5 player and basically anyone else, at least in terms of players Duke recruits. The data below has similar themes.



    Well I disagree, and the data supports me. Let's look at RSCI top 3 for past few years and you tell me these guys aren't studs. (BTW, only 2 of the guys you mention are top 3 guys: Jrue and Jennings, with Samardo being #4, so your subjective assertion that these other guys were "the most hyped" seems off-base.)

    Class of 2011
    1. Anthony Davis
    2. Austin
    3. Michael Gilchrist

    No overhyping here. AD and MG will be top 5 picks and Austin is a likely lottery pick, All-ACC and ACC ROY, who was just the 1st freshman to lead Duke in scoring since 1986. Sounds like hype was about right.

    Class of 2010
    1. Harrison
    T-2. Kyrie
    T-2. Sullinger

    You can quibble if you want, and claim that HB is overhyped, which I would even grant, but I would point you to my first paragraph above about buying into media hype.

    Bottomline: these guys are all flatout college studs that would start on ANY team in the country, PERIOD, and will all be lottery picks. Kyrie was the #1 overall pick. Harrison was the leading scorer 2 years in a row on an elite 8 team both years and is a likely top 5 pick in the draft, certainly a lock for the top 10. Sullinger was the leading scorer and rebounder on a final four team and All-AA his Freshman and Sophomore years (HB was honorable mention both years).

    (Quibble if you must about how HB didn't bring a championship to Franklin St, and seemed to not want to play inside...and there's obviously lots of ragging we can do on the kid for being so concerned with his "brand"....Sullinger would have been a top 5 or 3 pick last year and hurt his stock in the tournament this year, but again he's the top scorer and rebounder on a final four team, and 2 time 1st team AA. I think these guys are bonafide college studs.)

    Class of 2009
    1. Derrick Favors
    2. John Wall
    3. Demarcus Cousins

    No overhyping here, these guys went 1,3,5 in the 2010 draft with Wall and Cousins being 1st team AA and Favors being ACC ROY. Sound like college studs to me.

    Class of 2008
    1. Brandon Jennings
    2. Jrue Holiday
    3. Tyreke Evans

    - BJ did not play in college so n/a.
    - Jrue Holiday is the first non college stud on this list, and even he had a very solid year averaging 8.5 pts, 4rebs, and 3 asts in a crowded UCLA backcourt where he had to defer to seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp, while also playing off the ball.
    - Tyreke Evans was a stud as the leading scorer on a Memphis team that won 33 games and was the #4 pick overall
    - You mentioned Samardo Samuels who was #4 on the RSCI -- he averaged 12 & 5 his freshman year, very good numbers, in a crowded frontcourt that included Earl Clark and Terrence Williams (averaging a combined 26 & 18/game), then led the team as a sophomore in rebounding and scoring. He went undrafted as he's undersized and not terribly athletic, but he was pretty darn good college player.

    Class of 2007
    1. OJ Mayo
    2. Kevin Love
    3. Eric Gordon

    No over hyping here. All 3 were top 10 picks in the 08 draft and all were major studs for their teams.

    So that's 2 potential guys out of 16: Jrue Holiday and Samardo Samuels that weren't studs, with Samuels being a very good player. I'd say the top 3 produces some winners.

    The top 3 does produce a lot of studs, with all but two being top picks in the draft. But as far as winner's only two out of the 16 won a national championship. I think why people want Amile to come is the thought that he would be a four year guy. One and done talent can surely help a team, but upperclassmen win titles. It usually takes more than one year for a team to mesh as one. With Amile possibly staying four years a junior or senior Amile might be a better player than a freshman Shabazz, we would just have to wait a couple years to see and there's always the chance he is great right out of the gate as well.

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Durham
    Stephen Schramm ‏ @stephenschramm
    Gottfried said Leslie family will likely make decision tonight or tomorrow.

    If both Leslie and Mason come back, who does Amile choose?

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Lincoln Ne
    Quote Originally Posted by dukedoc View Post
    Stephen Schramm ‏ @stephenschramm
    Gottfried said Leslie family will likely make decision tonight or tomorrow.

    If both Leslie and Mason come back, who does Amile choose?
    Villanova???

  12. #72
    Kentucky, I think Cal's putting on the press.

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    Kentucky, I think Cal's putting on the press.
    Exactly where and when does Jefferson play if he decides to go with UK? As I've said before they've already got Poythress and Cauley. If playing time is an issue with Amile then I really can't think UK would be his choice.

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by mr. synellinden View Post
    I think if you watched Shabazz play in the two recent televised games (hoops summit/McD) you would feel differently. This guy appears to be a game changing talent along the lines of a Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis or Derrick Rose. I think he has a good chance to be the NCAA player of the year next year and the first pick in the 2013 draft (at worst 2nd behind Noel). He would probably be the #2 pick this year.

    With him, we're a top 5 team next year. Without him, regardless of whether Parker or Jefferson come, we're in the 12 - 18 range.
    Completely agree. Shabazz is the only true game changer left. Heck, he's probably the biggest game changer coming out of high school this year. If we somehow nabbed him, we'd be Top 5 (easily). Without him, no matter who else does or doesn't come that's on the radar, we are somewhere between a Top 10 to Top 20 team (closer to 20 than 10 starting out the year).
    Reading and posting at DBR for over 19 years and loving every... well, almost every minute of it!

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Gary View Post
    Shabazz is the only true game changer left.
    From what I hear, Noel is also a game-changer.

  16. #76
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    From what I hear, Noel is also a game-changer.
    I agree. Nerlens Noel's offense may be raw, but he is an Anthony Davis level game-changer on the defensive end of the court.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    From what I hear, Noel is also a game-changer.
    Perhaps on the defensive end (per Bob's comments), but he's nowhere near as much the game-changer on the offensive end as Shabazz is. Admittedly, I was really only thinking of the guys Duke was in the mix for (should have clarified that better), but even so I think Shabazz is easily the biggest get left.
    Reading and posting at DBR for over 19 years and loving every... well, almost every minute of it!

  18. #78
    While I agree that Noel is a game changer, he and Anthony Davis aren't exactly the same type player. Yes they are both freakishly long and athletic shot blockers on the defensive end, but the thing that makes Davis special, and the thing that is having NBA teams salivating is the fact that on top of Davis' defensive prowess is the fact that he just recently hit a growth spurt and is still developing his offense. He was a really really good guard and that handle hasn't left Davis and he's adjusting his shot to his new found height. Davis is going to be an interesting guy to follow at the next level. He's a Marcus Camby type defensive player/rebounder, but his offense isn't going to be centered in the low post because he doesn't have the build to put on a lot of weight and be a force on the block, he's going to have to be kind of a slashing big whose range continues to expand. He really intrigues me. I never fully understood why kids like Davis, Henson, and Ed Davis, are such hot commodities among NBA scouts. They don't have the frames to put on weight and dominate on the block offensively or defensively aside from blocking shots, and mostly from the weak side. But they know better than I.

    Hey Amile, come to Duke
    Hey Shabazz, didn't forget about you, come to Duke.

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    Exactly where and when does Jefferson play if he decides to go with UK? As I've said before they've already got Poythress and Cauley. If playing time is an issue with Amile then I really can't think UK would be his choice.
    Uk also has Kyle Wiltjer, who has to be anticipating a bump in PT.

  20. #80
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    Exactly where and when does Jefferson play if he decides to go with UK? As I've said before they've already got Poythress and Cauley. If playing time is an issue with Amile then I really can't think UK would be his choice.
    I would think his options for playing time might be greater at UK than at Duke. If UK's top 6 all leave as has been discussed, UK would return Kyle Wiltjer as their only player who has played more than 3 minutes per game. They currently have Goodwin (SG), Poythress (SF/PF), Cauley (C) committed, with offers out to Noel (C), Muhammad (SF), Bennett (PF), Parker (C), Pollard (SF), with Harrow (PG) joining them next year. If I am not missing anyone, Jefferson may be able to get plenty of minutes and would not have any upperclassmen to compete with.
    At Duke, he would have Ryan Kelly ahead of him at his position, as well as Hairston, Marshall Plumlee, Mason Plumlee? (please, please, please), Murphy, Gbinijie, Dawkins? and at in my dreams Shabazz at the 3-5 spots. I would think if first year playing time is the criteria, UK may offer a better option. If there are other criteria, then by all means, choose Duke.
    “Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”

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