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  1. #21

    Lance vs. Amile

    I have no idea whether Amile Jefferson is better/worse/the same than Lance Thomas

    I do know that they are rated EXACTLY the same place in the RSCI (which averages recruiting ratings): No. 20

    Of course, that doesn't mean that they are exactly the same -- is the Class of 2012 better or worse than the Class of 2006 (which included Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Ty Lawson ... and at No. 28 John Scheyer)?

    Still, I think it's fair to suggest they are similar prospects in terms of impact.

    The point I want to make is that if any of you remember this board in the spring of 2006 when we were waiting on Lance to make his decision, he suddenly became the greatest, most important recruit in Duke history. He was being projected as a program changer ... everybody had him projected into the 2006-07 starting lineup. I said then -- and I suggest now -- that late recruits are almost ALWAYS overrated by the fans.

    Jefferson, like Thomas, is a nice prospect and I'm sure he'll add a lot to our program. But if you think he's a kid who's going to come in and have a major impact from Day One, I suspect you are fooling yourself. I know one prominent recruiting guru who likes Jefferson, but says he's not ready to be a major competitor on the college level -- physically he's probably closer to the young Ryan Kelly than the young Lance Thomas.

    Well, Lance became a key member of our national championship team -- his senior year. Ryan became a contributor as a sophomore and a key contributor as a junior.

    Please try to keep the pursuit of Mr. Jefferson in perspective. I'd love to have him join the program, but unless a lot of recruiting guys are wrong (and that's possible), he's not an immediate game-changer. In terms of next year's team, Tony Parker would be a far more significant get (since he fills a glaring need). Shabazz Mohammad would be a far, far more significant get -- he IS a game-changer.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    The Triangle
    Amile has a bit of a throw back game in that he has some mid range game. He's not a blow you away athlete but smooth in his movements with a good basketball IQ. He is a better prospect than Lance Thomas was and he lacks a bit if the tenacity Thomas had. He's the type of kid Duke hasn't had in a while and is tougher than he looks, for he is on the slim side in that he's never lifted weights. That alone means the transition at any school will be tough in that the physical nature of the game is an adjustment. I have seen Jefferson play about 12 times and he's a player and the kind of guy you want on your roster. He is not the PF type Duke could use, but he is actually listed as a PF by many in the know on the recruiting front. The bottom line is he's a baller and would add some length to the team. Duke is in very good shape for his services.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    The Triangle
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg_Newton View Post
    I think Lance was probably a little quicker/stronger and more of a scrapper, physically, but I think Amile is pretty clearly a superior scorer. The guy led the NBPA Top 100 camp in scoring last summer, and that camp had pretty much anybody who was anybody: http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/06/n...ders-recaps-2/
    And he was impressive, but it is worth noting that he played on one of the two worst teams in the NBA Top 100. Amile blends in and that's part of his value.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by oldnavy View Post
    Well to know for sure, you would have to compare more than just ppg, you would need to look at the teams they played on and competed against to draw much of a conclusion. I mean if Lance was playing against really tough competition and Amile was in a patsy league or vice versa.....

    Also, did either have another stud player on their team that shared in scoring????

    See what I mean....
    Yes, I know that. I'm no expert on high school ball, but I get the impression that St. Benedict (where Lance went) plays tougher competition than Friends Central (where Amile goes). That's why I made the comment I did.

    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    The point I want to make is that if any of you remember this board in the spring of 2006 when we were waiting on Lance to make his decision, he suddenly became the greatest, most important recruit in Duke history. He was being projected as a program changer ... everybody had him projected into the 2006-07 starting lineup. I said then -- and I suggest now -- that late recruits are almost ALWAYS overrated by the fans.
    I agree with you in general and suspect that Amile (if he comes to Duke) won't play much next season. That said, the people who projected Lance into the 2006-07 starting lineup were right. He started 18 games that season.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    On the couch
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Yes, I know that. I'm no expert on high school ball, but I get the impression that St. Benedict (where Lance went) plays tougher competition than Friends Central (where Amile goes). That's why I made the comment I did.



    I agree with you in general and suspect that Amile (if he comes to Duke) won't play much next season. That said, the people who projected Lance into the 2006-07 starting lineup were right. He started 18 games that season.
    I figured you did... just couldn't help myself, I'm in one of those moods today.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by watzone View Post
    Amile has a bit of a throw back game in that he has some mid range game. He's not a blow you away athlete but smooth in his movements with a good basketball IQ. He is a better prospect than Lance Thomas was and he lacks a bit if the tenacity Thomas had. He's the type of kid Duke hasn't had in a while and is tougher than he looks, for he is on the slim side in that he's never lifted weights. That alone means the transition at any school will be tough in that the physical nature of the game is an adjustment. I have seen Jefferson play about 12 times and he's a player and the kind of guy you want on your roster. He is not the PF type Duke could use, but he is actually listed as a PF by many in the know on the recruiting front. The bottom line is he's a baller and would add some length to the team. Duke is in very good shape for his services.
    Thanks, Watzone, for your insights. Glad to hear we are still well positioned. I am excited about the prospect of having Amile come on board. After a far-too-early tourney exit and given the fairly long hiatus since our first/last 2012 commitment, I am prone (like many others) to view even average Joe prospects as very desirable, well beyond their actual merit. I've tried to be cognizant of that tendency in thinking about Amile, and I genuinely think Amile is a high quality prospect and could be a true difference maker if he were to come aboard, perhaps not as much as a freshman but certainly later in his college tenure. Thanks as always, Watzone.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Amile scores 17.5 ppg. Lance scored 14.5 ppg in his senior year of high school. So Amile's probably a better scorer, but I don't think we know if he is "clearly superior."
    Well, first of all, Amile's team usually only scores in the 40s-50s, which makes that number a little more impressive. St. Benedicts routinely scored in the 70s-90s during that time period, so it's a whole different number of possessions.

    Second, my point is that Lance never did anything close to that against the top 100 players in the country, HS averages aside. We saw that Lance's scoring struggled to translate somewhat against elite teams and talent; Amile's proven he can more than hold his own in that respect.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Northern VA
    Quote Originally Posted by watzone View Post
    Amile has a bit of a throw back game in that he has some mid range game. He's not a blow you away athlete but smooth in his movements with a good basketball IQ. He is a better prospect than Lance Thomas was and he lacks a bit if the tenacity Thomas had. He's the type of kid Duke hasn't had in a while and is tougher than he looks, for he is on the slim side in that he's never lifted weights. That alone means the transition at any school will be tough in that the physical nature of the game is an adjustment. I have seen Jefferson play about 12 times and he's a player and the kind of guy you want on your roster. He is not the PF type Duke could use, but he is actually listed as a PF by many in the know on the recruiting front. The bottom line is he's a baller and would add some length to the team. Duke is in very good shape for his services.
    Watzone, you are SUCH a tease!

    Any more word from the coaches' visit up to Philly this week? Any better indication of WHEN news of the announcement variety might be expected?


    I take Olympic's and Watzone's (and other) posts to heart. This is not Kyrie Irving we're talking about here, who was able to come in and have huge impact from day one. But he is a top-20 consensus recruit, and quite importantly fills a clear need on this team for next year - that being versatile "length" and some size. My sense is that he's a good "chemistry" guy, a la Shane Battier (though maybe not quite with those physical abilities yet).
    Last edited by -bdbd; 03-21-2012 at 04:59 PM.
    -BDBD

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    Watzone, you are SUCH a tease!

    Any more word from the coaches' visit up to Philly this week? Any better indication of WHEN news of the announcement variety might be expected?


    I take Olympic's and Watzone's (and other) posts to heart. This is not Kyrie Irving we're talking about here, who was able to come in and have huge impact from day one. But he is a top-20 consensus recruit, and quite importantly fills a clear need on this team for next year - that being versatile "length" and some size. My sense is that he's a good "chemistry" guy, a la Shane Battier (though maybe not quite with those physical abilities yet).
    FWIW, Brick Oettinger (ACC Sports Journal), who is far and away the best recruiting analyst out there in my view, has Amile at #8 in the class, and has said that he would be a perfect fit for Duke. Brick also has Parker at #14, a bit higher than some other analysts.

  10. #30
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    Sep 2008
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    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    FWIW, Brick Oettinger (ACC Sports Journal), who is far and away the best recruiting analyst out there in my view, has Amile at #8 in the class, and has said that he would be a perfect fit for Duke. Brick also has Parker at #14, a bit higher than some other analysts.
    This is why I prefer the RSCI. It averages all the major recruiting services, so that you don't put too much weight on one outlier opinion.

  11. #31
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    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by watzone View Post
    Amile has a bit of a throw back game in that he has some mid range game. He's not a blow you away athlete but smooth in his movements with a good basketball IQ. He is a better prospect than Lance Thomas was and he lacks a bit if the tenacity Thomas had. He's the type of kid Duke hasn't had in a while and is tougher than he looks, for he is on the slim side in that he's never lifted weights. That alone means the transition at any school will be tough in that the physical nature of the game is an adjustment. I have seen Jefferson play about 12 times and he's a player and the kind of guy you want on your roster. He is not the PF type Duke could use, but he is actually listed as a PF by many in the know on the recruiting front. The bottom line is he's a baller and would add some length to the team. Duke is in very good shape for his services.
    Sounds a bit like Antonio Lang - is that a fair comp?

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    This is why I prefer the RSCI. It averages all the major recruiting services, so that you don't put too much weight on one outlier opinion.
    I hear you, though I would say that some opinions are more credible than others. I have been following recruiting for nearly 30 years (and have subscribed to the Sports Journal/Poop Sheet for about that long), and would stack up Oettinger's track record against anyone's. FWIW, I believe the Duke staff places more value on his opinions than on those of other analysts/services. Not that they place a lot, mind you, and certainly more on his descriptions and evaluations rather than ratings per se.

  13. #33
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    Nov 2010
    Location
    Durham

    Skills

    I missed Amile in the skills competition tonight but I heard good things. Anyone able to offer some insights as to how he did? Love the notion of a relative big in the skill comp.

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Durham

    McD Video

    An Amile interview from the McDonald's festivities LINK

    There's a lot of ambient noise in the video and I couldn't turn the volume up too high here at work, but I believe I heard "unbelievable" interspersed with "Coach K" and "Duke" a couple times. Sounds good.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by dukedoc View Post
    An Amile interview from the McDonald's festivities LINK

    There's a lot of ambient noise in the video and I couldn't turn the volume up too high here at work, but I believe I heard "unbelievable" interspersed with "Coach K" and "Duke" a couple times. Sounds good.
    Definitely had some nice things to say about Coach K. Talked about how Duke combines both academics and basketball. He also had lots of positive things to say about NC State. I'm always nervous when I hear someone drop a reference to UK and Calipari and talk about how that program would be "unbelievable." But I certainly like that he specifically mentioned Duke twice, called Coach K the greatest and and said it would be a dream to play for him someday. Can't complain with that.

  16. #36
    I love our chances with him after hearing that interview! He sounded extremely high on Duke!!
    Reading and posting at DBR for over 19 years and loving every... well, almost every minute of it!

  17. #37
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by dukedoc View Post
    An Amile interview from the McDonald's festivities LINK

    There's a lot of ambient noise in the video and I couldn't turn the volume up too high here at work, but I believe I heard "unbelievable" interspersed with "Coach K" and "Duke" a couple times. Sounds good.
    Certainly sounded high on Duke! But I guess you never really know til you know, you know?

    - Chillin

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by dukedoc View Post
    I missed Amile in the skills competition tonight but I heard good things. Anyone able to offer some insights as to how he did? Love the notion of a relative big in the skill comp.
    He was in the finals, so that means of the 7 or 8 guys who chose to compete in that one [as opposed to 3-bomb or slam competition], he was top 3.

    He finished 3d in finals, because he lost many seconds in missing all 5 of his 3-pt tries from top of key. I'm not surprised by that, as when I saw him previously, he didn't "drift" out to the 3-pt line. Sometimes he started out there, but usually to take his man off the dribble, often toward the baseline, where his handle and footwork were advantages.

    So my previous impression was pretty much reinforced, in that the skills comp required good footwork and handle. I must say, he and others carried the ball a lot when weaving around obstacles. I don't recall that he was the worst offender.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Jacksonville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Certainly sounded high on Duke! But I guess you never really know til you know, you know?

    - Chillin
    Really liked the fact that he mentioned Duke and I was happy to hear he is very interested in what Duke can offer him as a student and not just as a basketball player. I think he has a lot of respect for Duke as an academic institution which is always good to hear from kids these days.
    http://www.dukesportsblog.com/

    Twitter: @MikeKlineDSB

    Facebook: Duke Sports Blog

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Chesterfield, VA
    I am extremely impressed with Amile. Out of our 3 main targets remaining I would love for us to land this kid. He seems like the type than can be a impact player but would not be trying to jump straight to the league and would be a great 3 or 4 year guy that would buy in to what K is trying to teach him. Not many high school students are that worried about the academic side of what most schools can offer. Any recruit with that much talent that also values a great education would be a great fit at Duke. This kid seems to have a really good head on his shoulders, here's hoping he picks the Blue Devils.

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