New 2012 Recruiting Thread

[superdave]

I think you're way beyond "Dark Blue Glasses". If everything you said comes true, we should be dominating every team we play.

There's not an analyst in this country who would agree with you. The players you named are all nice players, and absolutely wonderful kids who I respect deeply. But to think that we have 5-9 NBA players on the team is not realistic.

Do they have the talent to make it? Maybe. Have they shown it? Not yet. Austin, yes. Mason...sometimes. The rest have flashes or moments, but nothing to get them on any draft board either this year or next.

Contrast that with a team of Battier, Brand, Avery, Maggettee, Langdon...with back ups of Carrawell, and Nate James. And you want to tell me that there's no talent difference?

Will Avery made it in the NBA. He played 142 games. Maybe you do not consider that making it, but he made it. I think Quinn Cook can do that at least.

Chris Carrawell was a 2nd round draft pick in the NBA but never played in a game. So I dont count that as making it.

As for this year's guys, I actually think Ryan Kelly is big enough to play D in the league and a good enough shooter to play the Matt Bonner role.

[cbnaylor]

I disagree. I see Kelly as a Dirk....Dirk would never be caught playing center in the NBA.

[FerryFor50]

I disagree. I see Kelly as a Dirk....Dirk would never be caught playing center in the NBA.

Neither would Matt Bonner.

A lot of guys have made a career out of being 7 foot tall 3 point specialists.

Bonner, Radmonovic, Danny Ferry...

[CDu]

Neither would Matt Bonner.

A lot of guys have made a career out of being 7 foot tall 3 point specialists.

Bonner, Radmonovic, Danny Ferry...

Sorry to nitpick, but none of those three a 7-footers. They are all 6'9"/6'10". And none are/were NBA centers. Bonner is a 4, Radmanovic and Ferry are/were 3/4 guys.

Kelly would play the 4. He's shorter than Dirk and not nearly as good. But that's the style of play he'd have.

[MChambers]

Grant Hill, bona fide star
Laettner, good player, once an All-Star
Hurley (who knows how good he could have been?)
Brian Davis
Cherokee Parks

[mr. synellinden]

Neither would Matt Bonner.

A lot of guys have made a career out of being 7 foot tall 3 point specialists.

Bonner, Radmonovic, Danny Ferry...

Steve Novak is writing the book on how to do that this year.

I think Kelly needs to improve his range and consistency to be able to make it in the NBA as a 3 pt. specialist. Adding 15-20 pounds so he can defend the 4 would also help.

[FerryFor50]

Sorry to nitpick, but none of those three a 7-footers. They are all 6'9"/6'10". And none are/were NBA centers. Bonner is a 4, Radmanovic and Ferry are/were 3/4 guys.

Kelly would play the 4. He's shorter than Dirk and not nearly as good. But that's the style of play he'd have.

Yea that was kind of a nitpick.

My point was... tall, one-dimensional players hovering NEAR 7 feet can make a career out of shooting 3s. Better?

[Matches]

I think Kelly needs to improve his range and consistency to be able to make it in the NBA as a 3 pt. specialist. Adding 15-20 pounds so he can defend the 4 would also help.

This is key. Kelly is not an NBA 4 right now. If he can add some strength without losing mobility, though, he could become one.

[Faison1]

I think if you go back, you'll find this isn't true.

I'm not going to take the time because it's not worth it with your fluid definitions (e.g., Lance "doesn't count"; Mason played a "minimal role"). But my guess is most NCAA champions have had between 1 and 3 guys on the team who played a bigger role than Mason did in 2010 and are taken in the NBA draft (fewer if you only count the NBA first round). Very few have had 4 to 6 players who meet that criteria.

OK. I went back. I just went with players who got drafted. I probably missed a few. Here's the list:

2011 UConn – Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi, Shabazz Napier
2010 Duke – Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler
2009 UNC – Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ed Davis
2008 Kansas – Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun (2nd Rd), Darnell Jackson (2nd )
2007 Florida – Taurean Green (2nd Rd), Corey Brewer, Al Horford, Joakim Noah
2006 Florida
2005 UNC – Sean May, Rashad McCants, Ray Felton, Marvin Williams
2004 UConn – Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Charlie Villanueva, Josh Boone
2003 Cuse – Melo, Hakim Warrick
2002 Maryland – Juan Dixon, Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake
2001 Duke – Boozer, J. Williams, Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon

Obviously, I'm guessing with last year's UConn team.

The main outliers were Duke 2010, and Syracuse 2003. Other than that, each team had a minimum of 4 players drafted, if not more. I did not include guys who were picked up in summer league or signed free agent contracts. I only went with draftees.

If I went back further, I bet it would be even more pronounced.

[Monmouth77]

Will Avery made it in the NBA. He played 142 games. Maybe you do not consider that making it, but he made it. I think Quinn Cook can do that at least.

Chris Carrawell was a 2nd round draft pick in the NBA but never played in a game. So I dont count that as making it.

As for this year's guys, I actually think Ryan Kelly is big enough to play D in the league and a good enough shooter to play the Matt Bonner role.

Putting aside subjective views concerning who "made it" in the NBA, the point that we do not now have the talent we had in 1999 is simple and unassailable. Five of the top 6 rotation players were drafted in the 1st Round of the NBA draft (4 of them as lottery picks) and all 6 were drafted. Only the 2001 team had similar talent. 1991-92, 2002, and 2004 come close. This year's team does not.

[unexpected]

OK. I went back. I just went with players who got drafted. I probably missed a few. Here's the list:

2011 UConn – Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi, Shabazz Napier
2010 Duke – Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler
2009 UNC – Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ed Davis
2008 Kansas – Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun (2nd Rd), Darnell Jackson (2nd )
2007 Florida – Taurean Green (2nd Rd), Corey Brewer, Al Horford, Joakim Noah
2006 Florida
2005 UNC – Sean May, Rashad McCants, Ray Felton, Marvin Williams
2004 UConn – Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Charlie Villanueva, Josh Boone
2003 Cuse – Melo, Hakim Warrick
2002 Maryland – Juan Dixon, Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake
2001 Duke – Boozer, J. Williams, Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon

Obviously, I'm guessing with last year's UConn team.

The main outliers were Duke 2010, and Syracuse 2003. Other than that, each team had a minimum of 4 players drafted, if not more. I did not include guys who were picked up in summer league or signed free agent contracts. I only went with draftees.

If I went back further, I bet it would be even more pronounced.

What's telling to me is that only 1-2 of these players (Melo) is an top-10 NBA player. Other than Melo, you would take Boozer? Gordon? Most of these guys have ended up as role players in the NBA, or are out of the league entirely now.

[Matches]

What's telling to me is that only 1-2 of these players (Melo) is an top-10 NBA player. Other than Melo, you would take Boozer? Gordon? Most of these guys have ended up as role players in the NBA, or are out of the league entirely now.

Only 10 guys can be top-10 NBA players. It's not really a fair metric. There's lots of very good NBA players on that list.

[Faison1]

Will Avery made it in the NBA. He played 142 games. Maybe you do not consider that making it, but he made it. I think Quinn Cook can do that at least.

Chris Carrawell was a 2nd round draft pick in the NBA but never played in a game. So I dont count that as making it.

As for this year's guys, I actually think Ryan Kelly is big enough to play D in the league and a good enough shooter to play the Matt Bonner role.

My argument with you was that the 1999 team had 5 guys that got drafted in the 1st round, 1 guy in the 2nd, and another who was not drafted (Nate James) who could play circles around anyone on our current team (maybe).

We don't have that now.

Anyone could see that Will Avery was a star as a freshman. He was bona-fide as a soph. He would have been amazing as a junior. I sure hope Quinn Cook can get to those levels. Like I said earlier...maybe.

[azzefkram]

What's telling to me is that only 1-2 of these players (Melo) is an top-10 NBA player. Other than Melo, you would take Boozer? Gordon? Most of these guys have ended up as role players in the NBA, or are out of the league entirely now.

Top-10 not really a fair yardstick to use. Many of the top 10 players never went to college.

[Monmouth77]

My argument with you was that the 1999 team had 5 guys that got drafted in the 1st round, 1 guy in the 2nd, and another who was not drafted (Nate James) who could play circles around anyone on our current team (maybe).

We don't have that now.

Anyone could see that Will Avery was a star as a freshman. He was bona-fide as a soph. He would have been amazing as a junior. I sure hope Quinn Cook can get to those levels. Like I said earlier...maybe.

Exactly. To put this another way, Austin Rivers would have come off the bench on the 1999 team-- just like Corey Maggette. And unlike Maggette, it is not clear that Austin will be a lottery pick. And he was our best player this year.

[CDu]

OK. I went back. I just went with players who got drafted. I probably missed a few. Here's the list:

2011 UConn – Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi, Shabazz Napier
2010 Duke – Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler
2009 UNC – Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ed Davis
2008 Kansas – Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun (2nd Rd), Darnell Jackson (2nd )
2007 Florida – Taurean Green (2nd Rd), Corey Brewer, Al Horford, Joakim Noah
2006 Florida
2005 UNC – Sean May, Rashad McCants, Ray Felton, Marvin Williams
2004 UConn – Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Charlie Villanueva, Josh Boone
2003 Cuse – Melo, Hakim Warrick
2002 Maryland – Juan Dixon, Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake
2001 Duke – Boozer, J. Williams, Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon

Obviously, I'm guessing with last year's UConn team.

The main outliers were Duke 2010, and Syracuse 2003. Other than that, each team had a minimum of 4 players drafted, if not more. I did not include guys who were picked up in summer league or signed free agent contracts. I only went with draftees.

If I went back further, I bet it would be even more pronounced.

If you're going to count Oriakhi (who has not gotten drafted, and may very well never get drafted) on that list then you have to put Mason on the list for Duke's 2010 team. Mason is MUCH more likely to get drafted than Oriakhi. Heck, I'd give Kelly just about even odds with Oriakhi to get drafted based on this past year. Might as well put Miles in there too, since Miles outperformed Oriakhi this year and is more athletic...

[Matches]

Exactly. To put this another way, Austin Rivers would have come off the bench on the 1999 team-- just like Corey Maggette. And unlike Maggette, it is not clear that Austin will be a lottery pick. And he was our best player this year.

Most teams have nowhere near the talent we had in 1999. There's a reason we blew just about everyone away that year. I tend to agree that our recruiting has fallen off in certain areas in recent years, but it's problematic to make that point in comparison to the 1999 team. Even the '01 or '04 teams will fall short by that metric.

[unexpected]

Top-10 not really a fair yardstick to use. Many of the top 10 players never went to college.

Exactly, but the "prevailing wisdom" is that you need elite NBA level talent to win a college championship. This notion is false! Also, Even if we expanded the list to upper 1/3 of NBA - let's say "one of the best four players on the team" - very few people from the list meet that.

[Matches]

Exactly, but the "prevailing wisdom" is that you need elite NBA level talent to win a college championship. This notion is false! Also, Even if we expanded the list to upper 1/3 of NBA - let's say "one of the best four players on the team" - very few people from the list meet that.

Is the prevailing wisdom that a team needs elite NBA talent, or multiple NBA players? Personally I'd lean toward the latter.

[azzefkram]

Exactly. To put this another way, Austin Rivers would have come off the bench on the 1999 team-- just like Corey Maggette. And unlike Maggette, it is not clear that Austin will be a lottery pick. And he was our best player this year.

Well the 1999 team was super stacked. Additionally, austin was our most prominent player this year but not our best.