New 2012 Recruiting Thread

[tommy]

Little article here where Shabazz's dad confirms there'll be an official to UCLA in early April followed by a decision, probably the 9th or 10th.

What I found intriguing, and subject to a couple different interpretations, are these comments about Duke and what they've been hearing from Coach K:

"Holmes said he was “very surprised” that No. 2 Duke was upended Friday by No. 15 Lehigh, and that the loss only underscored Duke’s needs going forward.
“Very surprised but Coach K had been talking about that team with us and he understood that they had some deficiencies so that’s why he’s recruiting Shabazz so hard because he wants a more athletic player, a player that has the abilities to be a defensive player and things of that nature,” Holmes said. “He kind of saw the punch coming, I think.”"


I know one of our recruiting targets made some comment to ESPN's Jason Jordan about how, in considering our loss to Lehigh, that "def wasn't a good look to me" or words to that effect, indicating he viewed that loss and its implications as something weighing on him in a negative way when thinking about being part of the Duke program, but I have a feeling that wasn't Bazz. Jordan didn't say. Maybe Parker, I don't know. Sure hope it wasn't Bazz.

[Steven43]

The Heels certainly have caught a few breaks with guys staying a year longer than expected (and must surely still love the cop who pulled Lawson over for his DUI), but then again we've caught a few of those breaks too (Singler, McRoberts). I believe the coaching staff knew from the beginning that Irving and AR were likely done-in-ones, so would have taken that into account when planning for the future.

We have a credibility gap with big men - we can all rationalize why it's unfair or unwarranted, but it's there. We have trouble getting skilled post players. The team's needs are relatively easy to identify - true PG, dominant post player, athletic wing - but at this point the only one of those needs we could realistically fill from the 2012 class is the wing.

I also suspect that we have a credibility gap with potential recruits who are bigs. If that is indeed the case, can you think of any other program that is on or near Duke's elite level that has a similar perception problem with a major segment of their team? When thinking about Kansas, UNC, UConn, Syracuse, Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona, etc. no issues like this come to mind. They seem able to recruit all positions equally well. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I can't think of another elite program that has a similar recruiting problem. Perhaps Mason will have a monster year in 2012-2013, Julius Randle will decide to come to Duke and be the dominating player that most seem to think he will be, and we will begin to put this thing behind us for good.

[gam7]

I know one of our recruiting targets made some comment to ESPN's Jason Jordan about how, in considering our loss to Lehigh, that "def wasn't a good look to me" or words to that effect, indicating he viewed that loss and its implications as something weighing on him in a negative way when thinking about being part of the Duke program, but I have a feeling that wasn't Bazz. Jordan didn't say. Maybe Parker, I don't know. Sure hope it wasn't Bazz.

I didn't see the tweet, but was it definitely someone Duke is recruiting? Even if it is, I think everyone on this board can agree that losing to a 15 seed and playing the way we did on Friday is not a good look. Obviously, the team, the coaches and the fans would have liked to have played better and won. If the quote is meant to suggest that the target is less likely to go to Duke because it didn't look good that we lost - newsflash to that player: they weren't playing the game to look good to you. But, I'm not sure it would make sense for Parker to say it either, considering that many people think he's strongly considering UCLA...

[UrinalCake]

can you think of any other program that is on or near Duke's elite level that has a similar perception problem with a major segment of their team?

Perusing Inside Carolina after a loss, I saw several threads questioning why Roy can't recruit a shooter, and why all of the good shooters choose to come to Duke. Weeding through the muck, the more rational posts suggested that it's because their system focuses on the bigs first and the guards aren't allowed to let the three pointers fly like they are at Duke.

[CDu]

Little article here where Shabazz's dad confirms there'll be an official to UCLA in early April followed by a decision, probably the 9th or 10th.

What I found intriguing, and subject to a couple different interpretations, are these comments about Duke and what they've been hearing from Coach K:

"Holmes said he was “very surprised” that No. 2 Duke was upended Friday by No. 15 Lehigh, and that the loss only underscored Duke’s needs going forward.
“Very surprised but Coach K had been talking about that team with us and he understood that they had some deficiencies so that’s why he’s recruiting Shabazz so hard because he wants a more athletic player, a player that has the abilities to be a defensive player and things of that nature,” Holmes said. “He kind of saw the punch coming, I think.”"


I know one of our recruiting targets made some comment to ESPN's Jason Jordan about how, in considering our loss to Lehigh, that "def wasn't a good look to me" or words to that effect, indicating he viewed that loss and its implications as something weighing on him in a negative way when thinking about being part of the Duke program, but I have a feeling that wasn't Bazz. Jordan didn't say. Maybe Parker, I don't know. Sure hope it wasn't Bazz.

I feel like the best sales pitch is to be honest about your team's strengths as well as your needs, and to explain how you think the recruit could fill those needs while noting how you feel like you could meet the recruit's needs. So I suspect that what you've described is more or less the sales pitch Coach K has used with all three players (of course with the Coach K magic):

To Muhammad: we don't have a ton of size and athleticism at the 3 right now like we did with Davis, the Hills, Dunleavy, and Henderson. You would change that immediately. And you would put us over the top. And we could accentuate your skills like we did with those other guys.

To Jefferson: our best teams have often had an athletic, versatile PF (Hill, Lang, Battier, Deng). We haven't had that type of player the last couple of years. With you, we'd have that type of dynamic PF that can change a game and put us over the top. And we can accentuate your skills like we did with those other guys.

To Parker: we haven't had a great back-to-the-basket scorer in several years. You could change that immediately, and maybe put us over the top. With you, we'd have that low-post scorer that we haven't had since Brand, Boozer, and Williams. And we could accentuate your skills like we did with those other guys.

[MCFinARL]

I didn't see the tweet, but was it definitely someone Duke is recruiting? Even if it is, I think everyone on this board can agree that losing to a 15 seed and playing the way we did on Friday is not a good look. Obviously, the team, the coaches and the fans would have liked to have played better and won. If the quote is meant to suggest that the target is less likely to go to Duke because it didn't look good that we lost - newsflash to that player: they weren't playing the game to look good to you. But, I'm not sure it would make sense for Parker to say it either, considering that many people think he's strongly considering UCLA...

I wondered about this myself. I did see the tweet, and it said "a recruit," as I recall. Didn't say a Duke recruit, didn't even say a 2012 recruit. Could be from someone who is only being recruited by other schools and is just making an observation, or someone who has talked to Duke but is from 2013 or 2014, or from someone in 2014 who has Duke on a list of 20 schools but hasn't heard much (or anything) from the staff as well as from a recruit to whom Duke has actually offered. There may be a lot less to this than meets the eye (of course, that's pretty much what I think about Twitter altogether, so I might be biased).

[slower]

Bazz would absolute be a stud at Duke. Not sure if we need him because of Murphy and Gbinije but if we can get him, we take him and start him.

It's NEVER a matter of "need" for guys like that. He's the #1 player. The question is whether he feels that he "needs" us.

[G man]

I also suspect that we have a credibility gap with potential recruits who are bigs. If that is indeed the case, can you think of any other program that is on or near Duke's elite level that has a similar perception problem with a major segment of their team? When thinking about Kansas, UNC, UConn, Syracuse, Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona, etc. no issues like this come to mind. They seem able to recruit all positions equally well. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I can't think of another elite program that has a similar recruiting problem. Perhaps Mason will have a monster year in 2012-2013, Julius Randle will decide to come to Duke and be the dominating player that most seem to think he will be, and we will begin to put this thing behind us for good.

I have a bunch of friends who love Kansas and they all scream about their inability to recruit top ten players out of high school. Also they struggle to recruit Mc D level guards. Despite that they may be the best program at getting guys willing to develop on their bench. Every year they have someone step up who either was a role player or deep on the bench the year before. Arizona is just now recovering I don't think that this applies. I hate Uconn as much as the next guy, but I am flat out jealous of the guys they have put into the league.

[#1Duke]

Perusing Inside Carolina after a loss, I saw several threads questioning why Roy can't recruit a shooter, and why all of the good shooters choose to come to Duke. Weeding through the muck, the more rational posts suggested that it's because their system focuses on the bigs first and the guards aren't allowed to let the three pointers fly like they are at Duke.

It seems that yes, Roy puts much more stock in the inside game and the Bigs.
If you caught what he had to say at halftime in the Creighton game .... commenting that his team was taking to many jump shots and outside shots.... " that's just dumb basketball" he said.
I think that was a good indication on how feels and looks at the game.

Also, would top big men be interested in a team that doesn't go to them often and gives them limited chances to showcase their talents??
All things being equal, I think potential recruits look at the system in which their talents can shine.

[A-Tex Devil]

Since I've been paying attention to Duke recruiting (about 18 years), Duke has had exactly THREE guys at the 4 and 5 spots that I felt were all-ACC caliber and met or exceeded expectations coming in -- those three are Brand, Boozer and Shelden Williams. Granted, those three are all generational talents, but outside of those guys, I've always perceived our big guys to either be marginalized or simply not reach the expectations of their high school hype. There is a pattern, and I'll leave it at that. And I am not really talking about going on to NBA success here - I am talking about getting players that can develop into a team like our 2010 team that just killed people on the boards, and, frankly, was tough. So much of that was Lance and Zoubs, as we've come to find out.

There is definitely a stigma/misconception/reality depending on your point of view, that we are a guard oriented school and not the place you want to go if you are big man, especially a one and done player. But give me one guy per class like Kenny Frease, Arnett Moultrie, Yancy Gates, those tall dudes on St. Mary's 2 years ago, DeJuan Wagner, Greg Echineque, Quincy Acy, Jordan Williams, etc. etc. I don't care if their game doesn't translate to the NBA. I want dudes that kill the boards on both ends. You know -- the way Miles played about once a month.

Anyway, these are the reasons why I would love, love, love to get Tony Parker, and am completely enamored with his game and size. I get that he may end up being more Renardo Sydney than a taller version of DeJuan Blair (my favorite non-Duke/Texas player of the last 10 years), but the potential for him to kill it on the boards is there. I don't have a good feeling about getting TP to a "Yes," but man I'd love to see that guy in a Duke uniform.

Edited to add -- I admittedly and embarassingly made my own point in the first paragraph, and should have added Lance Thomas and Zoubs to that laundry list of other players, I guess. But I also think that Duke team was one of the most unique teams, title or not, since K has been there. Repeat that formula please.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Does anyone know how the 2012 recruiting class compares with 2011's class and 2013's recruiting class? For instance, Murphy was top 15 for 2012 but was much further down in the 2011 class. Is that simply because he was a year behind the senior class or was 2011 that much deeper? Just wondering how Amile, Tony, and Shabazz would compare with last year's class and next year's class? Perhaps that would help put in perspective just how vital/impactful we could expect them to be if they came to Duke next year or if we should be more interested in the talent pool available in 2013.

[tommy]

I hate Uconn as much as the next guy, but I am flat out jealous of the guys they have put into the league.

Really? Why? Here is the list of ex-UConn players currently in the league, in reverse chronological order:

Kemba Walker - having a nice rookie year, 12 ppg in 27 minutes, shooting 37%

Jeff Adrien - has played in 31 games in two years for two different teams. Not long for the league.

Hasheem Thabeet - alltime bust as #2 pick overall. Lucky he's still in the league. Career average is 2 ppg.

AJ Price - backup guard for Indiana; gets 15 min per game. Was a second rounder.

Rudy Gay - solid. 18 ppg career average over 6 years with Grizz. Very good player.

Charlie Villanueva - former lottery pick is a rotation guy, with his 3rd (losing) team in 7 years. Just a guy.

Emeka Okafor - 2nd overall pick is a good NBA rebounder (10 per) but just OK as a scorer (13 ppg). Not a star.

Ben Gordon - one dimensional player scores well (16 ppg over 8 yrs, dipped to 11 last year) but doesn't do anything else. 43% career shooter.

Caron Butler - solid player, averaged 16 ppg over his 9 years with 5 teams. Good complimentary player, starter quality.

Richard Hamilton - longtime shooter for Pistons, averaged 17.5 over 12 years. Very good, though not elite, 2-guard. In other words, not a Ray Allen.

Ray Allen - all-time great 2-guard, great 3 point stroke, averaged 20 ppg over 15 years, and has a championship.


Add it up: one great player -- Ray Allen. Several very good ones: Hamilton, Butler, Gay. A few pretty good ones: Gordon, Okafor. I'm not overwhelmed.

And here's a partial list of guys who sure seemed good in a Connecticut uniform but never made it in the pros at all, or not for very long if at all: Stanley Robinson, Hilton Armstrong (he may still be in the league), Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Denham Brown, Jake Voskuhl, Khalid El-Amin, Travis Knight, Donny Marshall, and then there's Donyell Marshall, Scott Burrell and Tate George (they at least hung around for awhile, I'll give them that.)

So what's to be jealous of? Duke has had way more guys in the league, and way more solid NBA players over the last 15 years or so than has UConn.

[Greg_Newton]

Some highlights of 2013 PG target Anthony Barber winning the VA state championship (love the quickness at 1:50): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGqm_lEq2QY

[heyman25]

April 5. Coach K better be in touch with Barber. Waiting on Tyus Jones is a huge gamble.Our recruiting talent is reaching a critical stage if Duke wants to compete with UK, UNC, Kansas, Ohio State, Michigan State and Syracuse in the future.

[DUKIE V(A)]

April 5. Coach K better be in touch with Barber. Waiting on Tyus Jones is a huge gamble.Our recruiting talent is reaching a critical stage if Duke wants to compete with UK, UNC, Kansas, Ohio State, Michigan State and Syracuse in the future.

Haven't seen Tyus Jones but Barber looks pretty special to me. So quick, great handle.

[CDu]

Since I've been paying attention to Duke recruiting (about 18 years), Duke has had exactly THREE guys at the 4 and 5 spots that I felt were all-ACC caliber and met or exceeded expectations coming in -- those three are Brand, Boozer and Shelden Williams. Granted, those three are all generational talents, but outside of those guys, I've always perceived our big guys to either be marginalized or simply not reach the expectations of their high school hype. There is a pattern, and I'll leave it at that. And I am not really talking about going on to NBA success here - I am talking about getting players that can develop into a team like our 2010 team that just killed people on the boards, and, frankly, was tough. So much of that was Lance and Zoubs, as we've come to find out.

There is definitely a stigma/misconception/reality depending on your point of view, that we are a guard oriented school and not the place you want to go if you are big man, especially a one and done player. But give me one guy per class like Kenny Frease, Arnett Moultrie, Yancy Gates, those tall dudes on St. Mary's 2 years ago, DeJuan Wagner, Greg Echineque, Quincy Acy, Jordan Williams, etc. etc. I don't care if their game doesn't translate to the NBA. I want dudes that kill the boards on both ends. You know -- the way Miles played about once a month.

I think you meant DeJuan Blair. Wagner was a small guard for Memphis. That said, I do agree that the perception exists regarding our lack of development of big men. I can't remember the last big that exceeded expectations, and as you said most fell a bit short of expectations. Part of that is because when you're recruiting McDonald's All Americans, the bar is set high. But the math is pretty clear - very few post guys have produced for us above role player level over the past 15-20 years. And despite getting tons of top 20-30 recruits, guys like Boateng, Sanders, Randolph, Thomas, Zoubek, Burgess, and McRoberts either fell just a bit short or well short of expectations based on their recruit ratings (some of which may have been off to begin with, but that doesn't change the perception).

And with the exception of a month or two of Zoubek's senior year and a few weeks of Miles's senior year, we haven't had that beastly rebounder like we had with Brand, Boozer, and Williams. And even in the cases of Zoubek and Miles, the perception is that those guys just set screens, got rebounds, and passed it out to the guards (which is, in some degree, accurate).

Anyway, these are the reasons why I would love, love, love to get Tony Parker, and am completely enamored with his game and size. I get that he may end up being more Renardo Sydney than a taller version of DeJuan Blair (my favorite non-Duke/Texas player of the last 10 years), but the potential for him to kill it on the boards is there. I don't have a good feeling about getting TP to a "Yes," but man I'd love to see that guy in a Duke uniform.

I would say that I'd like the idea of what Parker could bring. But it doesn't sound like he actually has the motor to make that happen. It's hard to find guys like Reggie Johnson, Blair, Sullinger, Williams (Jordan or Shelden), May, etc because you're probably just as likely to wind up with a guy like Nigel Dixon. Finding really big, strong, physical, tenacious rebounders is tough to do. Those other guys weren't great rebounders just because of their size. They were great rebounders because of their desire to get the ball (which is arguably the single most important attribute in rebounding). And tenacity doesn't seem to be the first thing that comes to mind with Parker.

[Kedsy]

I would say that I'd like the idea of what Parker could bring. But it doesn't sound like he actually has the motor to make that happen. It's hard to find guys like Reggie Johnson, Blair, Sullinger, Williams (Jordan or Shelden), May, etc because you're probably just as likely to wind up with a guy like Nigel Dixon. Finding really big, strong, physical, tenacious rebounders is tough to do. Those other guys weren't great rebounders just because of their size. They were great rebounders because of their desire to get the ball (which is arguably the single most important attribute in rebounding). And tenacity doesn't seem to be the first thing that comes to mind with Parker.

UCLA's Josh Smith. #18 in the RSCI two years ago. A lot of DBR posters were desperate for K to land him. He went 11 and 6 his freshman year and 10 and 5 this year. Decent numbers, but if he'd come here and done that, he'd be used as another example of us not developing a big man.

My guess is Tony Parker is no better than Smith and will not perform significantly better, no matter where he goes.

[CDu]

UCLA's Josh Smith. #18 in the RSCI two years ago. A lot of DBR posters were desperate for K to land him. He went 11 and 6 his freshman year and 10 and 5 this year. Decent numbers, but if he'd come here and done that, he'd be used as another example of us not developing a big man.

My guess is Tony Parker is no better than Smith and will not perform significantly better, no matter where he goes.

Yeah, Josh Smith is a perfect example. Renardo Sydney is another example, though he had a very solid sophomore year before really declining this year. Being a "space eater" isn't simply an issue of bulk. You also need the desire to use that space.

I hate to speculate on Parker given how little I've seen of him. But based on what little I know, it seems like you might be right.

[Jderf]

UCLA's Josh Smith. #18 in the RSCI two years ago. A lot of DBR posters were desperate for K to land him. He went 11 and 6 his freshman year and 10 and 5 this year. Decent numbers, but if he'd come here and done that, he'd be used as another example of us not developing a big man.

My guess is Tony Parker is no better than Smith and will not perform significantly better, no matter where he goes.

This is probably the greatest irony about our current situation. Let's say that the pro-Parker folks on the board get their wish, and Tony stuns everyone and ultimately decides to come to Duke. What happens next?

I'd bet it would actually end up hurting our reputation anyway, and that our "perception problem" would become even worse!

Because, and I think that many would agree, the most likely course of events following TP's commitment would be this: Tony comes to Duke and has a decent, but not stellar, freshman year. Let's be optimistic and say he racks up 10 ppg and 5 rpg, in 20 minutes. If that happened (or even worse, if Tony came up short of that), our detractors would be all over it. Seriously. "Another promising, top-50 post player goes to Duke, only to disappear into mediocrity!"

Of course, they would be wrong. They would be ignorant. They would be setting up false expectations, a prototypical strawman argument, only so they could knock those expectations down. So yes, they would be very far off-base. But that wouldn't matter, because they would still be saying it nonetheless. Repeatedly. En masse. They would have yet another (bad) reason to point a finger at Duke and show everyone "how far we have fallen."

Basically, I'm saying that no matter how this situation plays out, whether Duke ends up "winning" or "losing," people are going to claim that it is just further evidence of a crumbling empire. For the very simple reason that they just don't like us. They will still be wrong. And we will still be annoyed. And that's just what is gonna' happen. It's like a bad movie where you know exactly how it is going to end but you have to watch anyway -- only thing you can do is make sure you've got enough popcorn.

[NashvilleDevil]

Our recruiting talent is reaching a critical stage if Duke wants to compete with UK, UNC, Kansas, Ohio State, Michigan State and Syracuse in the future.

2 years after winning a national title. One year after having the #1 pick in the draft play at Duke. This year Duke beat UNC, Kansas and Michigan St and you think Duke is at a crossroads in getting recruits to come to Duke?