New 2012 Recruiting Thread

[Johnny Chill]

At this point, do we even really want Parker? Of course having a load in the middle would be nice to have, but the way he seems to carry himself and treat this process as if its some kind of Tony Parker sweepstakes doesn't exactly endear me to the kid. I wonder how the coaches feel about it. Clearly they actually know him and presumably know him well since we've been recruiting him hard and for a long time, but they can't exactly be thrilled about the way he talks about Duke publicly.
I'd still be thrilled to have him to add to the depth of next year's front line, especially if we can get a 2 in 2 out situation like we did in 2010 with Mason and Ryan Starting then trade in MP3 and Tony after a few minutes with Tony to operate in the post and Marshall to do the screening and trying to grab boards.

I really think that with Jefferson, Shabazz, and Parker, they're all going to wait to see who leaves and who stays because they all want to play immediately. Shabazz less so, cause he's going to start, but if Austin's there (known ball stopper) he may be less willing to come, but I sense that Jefferson either wants to fill the gap Calvin Leslie leaves at state or the one Mason leaves (different style) at Duke, and Parker wants Duke to change everything about the program to appease him, but he really doesn't want to have to sit behind Kelly Mason and battle for time with the likes of Marshall and Hairston.

Shabazz fills our needs the most I think and will do so immediately, seeing as we have no proven player at the actual 3 spot, despite how hopeful we are for Murph/Silent G to be players. Again, if Bazz comes, he's starting.

If Tony Parker is still interested in Duke, we would take him and he would start as a frosh next to Mason. But at this point Parker to Duke isnt going to happen. The attention is on Jefferson and Bazz.

Jefferson would be a nice addition. Duke seems to get guys like him (tweeners): Thomas, Boykins, McClure, Hairston, but they play an important role for Duke teams.

Bazz would absolute be a stud at Duke. Not sure if we need him because of Murphy and Gbinije but if we can get him, we take him and start him.

[Saratoga2]

It will depend on who goes and who stays as to how many we can recruit. With Sheed coming in, we may have one or two additional spots. I for one want to see us get a true big man of the Tony Parker mold. If that can't happen, there are other alternatives talked about in this string. Getting another highly ranked small forward would also be a good strategy. Too bad coach K can't just pull a lever and get his guy, but that is not what happens these days or probably in the past.

[MaxAMillion]

FWIW, Jason Jordon, recruiting analyst for ESPN who seems to be very close to a number of recruits (TP, Randle, Sulimon etc), tweeted something along the lines of:

"a recruit just texted me this: 'Duke lost? thats not a good look to me J'. (to which Jason added something along the lines of) 'this stuff matters to recruits'"

no point really in speculating who texted him that, coulda been anyone, but I think i have a pretty good idea of who...

either way, i think its important to note that stuff like that does matter to recruits. I know theyre only 17-18 years old and therefore dont make the most rational decisions always, but i can see a recruit thinking "why would i want to waste my talents at a school that loses to lehigh in the first round". conversely there are probably some recruits who look at it as "wow, that team could really use me, I could shine there!"

I don't think a loss in the NCAA tournament has any long lasting impact with recruits. UNC was able to keep recruiting even though they went to the NIT. Howland appears to be able to still recruit even with all of UCLA's problems. Most coaches would love to have Duke's problems when it comes to recruiting. The staff just needs to identify players that fit the school and the program. I think Sulaimon is a perfect example of that fit.

[loldevilz]

I don't think a loss in the NCAA tournament has any long lasting impact with recruits. UNC was able to keep recruiting even though they went to the NIT. Howland appears to be able to still recruit even with all of UCLA's problems. Most coaches would love to have Duke's problems when it comes to recruiting. The staff just needs to identify players that fit the school and the program. I think Sulaimon is a perfect example of that fit.

I don't think this is even top 5 in factors effecting our recruiting. Our reputation among big man recruits, our reputation among African-American recruits, and the pressure of being a Duke basketball player, are all issues that will affect our recruiting more than how great we've done in the tournament recently.

[wilko]

I don't think this is even top 5 in factors effecting our recruiting. Our reputation among big man recruits, our reputation among African-American recruits, and the pressure of being a Duke basketball player, are all issues that will affect our recruiting more than how great we've done in the tournament recently.

I think if Duke were a party school or an "easy" school recruiting would be somewhat easier.
That we make our guys bother to go to class, when other schools seemingly aren't as rigid, well it makes Duke less attractive to the elite who just passing thru for a good time on the way to a paycheck.

Those who have been pampered, mollycoddled and never had to work hard with God given talent, well, why start now?

The system is out of wack.

[OrangeDevil]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

[Saratoga2]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

You have been straightforward enough to state the issue clearly, without implying criticism or demeaning the players. Whille UNC has long tall athletes at every position with some coming off the bench as well. Recruits like Bullock, Hairston and Mcadoo tend to get PT during the season, even though they are on learning curves. By tournament time they seem ready to contribute. I don't think we want to emulate Kentucky, but they have taken recruiting of 1 and doners to an extreme with of course super on court performance.

Alex, Marshall and Michael have seen pretty much only practice time or none at all. Do we think they will eventually be contributors to the program? Clearly we do or we wouldn't have recruited them, but the recruits that helped us this year were Austin (a future pro) and to a much lesser degree Quinn, who could wind us as an excellent point guard. It is difficult to recruit kids that are both academically qualified and also highly gifted basketball players and athletes. Getting a couple of those players per year would quickly give this program the shot in the arm it needs. As far as height is concerned, teams like Murray State and Missouri were small at guard like us, but perhaps quicker. They had trouble competing in the tournament as we did. Sheed may help us in this way at 6'3" and if we have Austin back another year and play our small forwards, or get a super recruit at that position.

I agree with you that recruiting the right people is key to our success going forward. Kind of obvious, but this year it wasn't evident that it happened.

[-jk]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

This has been one of my points for a while now: playing for Duke is not "fun" - or easy, for that matter. It's work. In the classroom. On the court. And everywhere else. While you can't coast your way to the nba from Duke, when you get there, you tend to stick around. If you don't get there, you tend to be successful anyway. It takes a committed kid to play at Duke, but the reward is usually there.

If you have talent and don't care, there are a bunch of programs that will let you coast - have "fun" - and get you in the draft. But a lot of those kids don't stick around.

"Fun" or "work"? Tough call for 18 year olds. Less tough for 30 year olds looking back and thinking "what if?". Alas, they can't really think it at 18. Kids...

-jk

[Kedsy]

That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years.

I remember people saying pretty much this exact same thing after we lost to Villanova in 2009. They were wrong, too.

And what do you mean by "needs to be addressed"? You think Coach K isn't trying as hard as he can to recruit? I hope you don't think he needs to be replaced, but I can't think of any other way to "address" the recruiting "problem."

[OrangeDevil]

I remember people saying pretty much this exact same thing after we lost to Villanova in 2009. They were wrong, too.

And what do you mean by "needs to be addressed"? You think Coach K isn't trying as hard as he can to recruit? I hope you don't think he needs to be replaced, but I can't think of any other way to "address" the recruiting "problem."

Like you, I hope I am wrong. And I'm supremely confidant that Coach K is thinking about this and redoubling recruiting efforts. As far as replacing him, nonsense. Not only does he remain the most capable coach in college basketball, but his leadership and abilities are the principal reason why this year's edition, with the various problems identified by myself and others, did as well as it did. K himself said it best, paraphrased as "we are not a juggernaut. We have known this all year. We have to be very precise [to win]. I understand your frustration and disappointment. I share it. But also like you, I expect and hope for better. Why? Because we are Duke! Next year is, to my way of thinking, a most important year. With Austin and Mason hopefully back (big ifs, maybe Mason's return is most important) and with a breakout year from Quinn (I agree with Saratoga2 about his potential) and Gbinije Duke can make a deeper run and position itself for the recruiting benefits to follow. And moderator JK is also correct, Duke is demanding and many players are not prepared for the academic commitment that Duke requires. I wouldn't have it any other way. Still, dominating teams and championship seasons say it can happen. I want to see us back with K and crw celebrating another national championship.

[FerryFor50]

I think Duke recruiting needs to focus less on the stars next to the names and more on the type of player to fit the system. I think K would do well to recruit players similar to who VCU gets - feisty on-ball defenders that focus on defense first and that stick around for at least 3 years...

It's nice to get 4 and 5 star guys, but it stinks when they don't fit into the system.

[Des Esseintes]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

You've been watching Duke basketball for more than two weeks, right? Because we've won 5 of the last 7 games we've played against Carolina. Two years ago, we were wildly more talented than UNC and won a championship. Last year, we were significantly more talented than UNC and had probably the best team in the country* until injuries intervened. And, hey, this year Carolina is better. That's how it goes. The great programs are going to surge and ebb, one in front for a spell then the other. Next year? Carolina likely loses a ton. Duke could bring back almost everyone. We will probably be better than UNC next year. But, by all means, piss and moan a bunch about a year in which we only split with them.

*Last year we were SO GOOD we lost KYRIE IRVING and WERE STILL ARGUABLY THE BEST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. Do you have any idea how lucky we are? How incredibly, historically well this program is functioning right now?

[Sir Stealth]

I think Duke recruiting needs to focus less on the stars next to the names and more on the type of player to fit the system. I think K would do well to recruit players similar to who VCU gets - feisty on-ball defenders that focus on defense first and that stick around for at least 3 years...

It's nice to get 4 and 5 star guys, but it stinks when they don't fit into the system.

This is classic day after a disappointing loss overreaction commentary. What players do we have that you are so sure don't fit our system? And what is that system exactly - it seems pretty clear that we adjust our system to our players. Did Brian Zoubek fit the "system" that you have in mind? Did Jon Scheyer?

Wishing that we had players more like VCU is the silliest thing I have ever heard. Because they had a nice tournament run last year and are outperforming their seed this year? VCU will never win a national championship. They would not have even gotten in the tournament this year without pulling off an upset in the conference title game. They have had a couple of nice tournament runs, but believe me, the reason that Duke is Duke (best program of the expanded tournament era, by the way), is because Coach K consistently recruits and lands 4 and 5 star guys every single year. Without them, our program would have success more in-line with say, VCU...

3 ACC Championships and a national title in the last 4 years and Coach K needs to change how he recruits to recruit less elite players like they have at vastly inferior programs....unreal.

[-bdbd]

This is classic day after a disappointing loss overreaction commentary. What players do we have that you are so sure don't fit our system? And what is that system exactly - it seems pretty clear that we adjust our system to our players. Did Brian Zoubek fit the "system" that you have in mind? Did Jon Scheyer?

Wishing that we had players more like VCU is the silliest thing I have ever heard. Because they had a nice tournament run last year and are outperforming their seed this year? VCU will never win a national championship. They would not have even gotten in the tournament this year without pulling off an upset in the conference title game. They have had a couple of nice tournament runs, but believe me, the reason that Duke is Duke (best program of the expanded tournament era, by the way), is because Coach K consistently recruits and lands 4 and 5 star guys every single year. Without them, our program would have success more in-line with say, VCU...

3 ACC Championships and a national title in the last 4 years and Coach K needs to change how he recruits to recruit less elite players like they have at vastly inferior programs....unreal.

I generally track with the sentiment, but think that it less about "finding more players who precisely fit 'our system' " -- I think one could reasonably argue that not all of the current kids exude all of the traits we've come to associate with Duke guards and wings (such as quick, heady and intense defense) -- and more about finding some more kids who fit certain roles that we've had such success with (but may currently lack one of those). What I mean is, think about the possible impact of solving the issue of the oft-pointed-to lack of a versatile SF type of guy in the 6'7" - 6'9" (are you listening Mr. Jefferson???), in the mold of Grant Hill and Shane Battier or Antonio Lang. Sure could have used one of those Friday night...

But as SS points out, it isn't like this team didn't contend for the ACC regular season championship right up until the final day, or win a boatload of games against a very challenging sked, or stay ranked in the top-10 all year long... There's an awful lot of schools out there who'd love to have to live with that sort of disappointment...

[MaxAMillion]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

I think an issue that isn't discussed enough is that UNC's players have been coming back to play additional years and that hasn't been the case as often at Duke (at least not with Irving). I am convinced the last two season would have been completely different if Irving had been healthy last season and stayed on to play this season. UNC on the other hand had all their players come back for another year (much like Hansborough and Lawson did a couple of years earlier).

It is hard to account for players leaving early (unless you are UK and you make leaving early part of your recruiting plan).

[dukedoc]

I think an issue that isn't discussed enough is that UNC's players have been coming back to play additional years and that hasn't been the case as often at Duke (at least not with Irving). I am convinced the last two season would have been completely different if Irving had been healthy last season and stayed on to play this season. UNC on the other hand had all their players come back for another year (much like Hansborough and Lawson did a couple of years earlier).

I agree that this has been a key element of our recent difficulties. I think we had some serious talent this year but we were extremely inconsistent. We also didn't have a consistent point guard. If Kyrie had stayed, even beyond his individual talent and contributions, I think he would have affected everyone else in such a fundamental way. He is so consistent night in and night out and causes defenses to change dramatically to account for him. In those sorts of ways he would have changed the whole complexion of the team and perhaps galvanized the confidence of some of the more vulnerable members of our team.

That said, early departures happen to all teams and the best of teams will continue to rise to the top despite them. The main thing that frustrates me about early departures is not that they happen, but that crazy fans (Duke fans included) judge programs (and their relative values compared to each other) based on single seasons. This is one of those years in which the UNC pendulum (talent-wise, perhaps not execution, yet) has swung far one way, and our pendulum less so. Some years, it'll be Duke>UNC. Hard to predict. The only way to account for these year-by-year aberrations is to "increase your N" - i.e. have a bigger sample size of years and make conclusions based on that. From that perspective, I'd say we're doing just fine.

The 2012 recruiting cycle isn't over, but I think 2013-2014 will be particularly telling.

[Matches]

I think an issue that isn't discussed enough is that UNC's players have been coming back to play additional years and that hasn't been the case as often at Duke (at least not with Irving). I am convinced the last two season would have been completely different if Irving had been healthy last season and stayed on to play this season. UNC on the other hand had all their players come back for another year (much like Hansborough and Lawson did a couple of years earlier).

It is hard to account for players leaving early (unless you are UK and you make leaving early part of your recruiting plan).

The Heels certainly have caught a few breaks with guys staying a year longer than expected (and must surely still love the cop who pulled Lawson over for his DUI), but then again we've caught a few of those breaks too (Singler, McRoberts). I believe the coaching staff knew from the beginning that Irving and AR were likely done-in-ones, so would have taken that into account when planning for the future.

We have a credibility gap with big men - we can all rationalize why it's unfair or unwarranted, but it's there. We have trouble getting skilled post players. The team's needs are relatively easy to identify - true PG, dominant post player, athletic wing - but at this point the only one of those needs we could realistically fill from the 2012 class is the wing.

[COYS]

I agree that this has been a key element of our recent difficulties. I think we had some serious talent this year but we were extremely inconsistent. We also didn't have a consistent point guard. If Kyrie had stayed, even beyond his individual talent and contributions, I think he would have affected everyone else in such a fundamental way. He is so consistent night in and night out and causes defenses to change dramatically to account for him. In those sorts of ways he would have changed the whole complexion of the team and perhaps galvanized the confidence of some of the more vulnerable members of our team.

That said, early departures happen to all teams and the best of teams will continue to rise to the top despite them. The main thing that frustrates me about early departures is not that they happen, but that crazy fans (Duke fans included) judge programs (and their relative values compared to each other) based on single seasons. This is one of those years in which the UNC pendulum (talent-wise, perhaps not execution, yet) has swung far one way, and our pendulum less so. Some years, it'll be Duke>UNC. Hard to predict. The only way to account for these year-by-year aberrations is to "increase your N" - i.e. have a bigger sample size of years and make conclusions based on that. From that perspective, I'd say we're doing just fine.

The 2012 recruiting cycle isn't over, but I think 2013-2014 will be particularly telling.

There's a lot of luck involved in players staying, too. UNC fans had to deal with the thought of Boozer, Dunleavy, and Williams returning to Duke the year after winning the championship while their program suffered NBA defections after chemistry issues destroyed the end of their season.

Later in the decade, UNC fans get lucky as Felton, McCants, and May stay through their junior years while Duke only gets one year out of Deng and no years out of Shaun Livingston. Fast forward a few years, and Lawson gets a DUI that ends his chances of being a high pick in the 2008 draft. He comes back and runs the offense for his junior year and leads UNC to a title.

Then the pendulum swings right back again, as Nolan and Kyle return for their senior seasons after winning a championship.

Then it swings back again as Henson, Barnes, and Zeller all return for their soph, junior, and senior seasons while Duke loses Kyrie to injury and then to the draft.

Really, i don't think either program has much to complain about. UNC has had a little more luck in keeping players who were projected pretty high in the draft in recent seasons, but Duke had all the luck earlier in the 2000's. If Mason and AR stay while Barnes, Henson, and Marshall bolt for the NBA, then WE'LL have a turn as the lucky ones.

[sagegrouse]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

You have been straightforward enough to state the issue clearly, without implying criticism or demeaning the players. Whille UNC has long tall athletes at every position with some coming off the bench as well. Recruits like Bullock, Hairston and Mcadoo tend to get PT during the season, even though they are on learning curves. By tournament time they seem ready to contribute. I don't think we want to emulate Kentucky, but they have taken recruiting of 1 and doners to an extreme with of course super on court performance.

Alex, Marshall and Michael have seen pretty much only practice time or none at all. Do we think they will eventually be contributors to the program? Clearly we do or we wouldn't have recruited them, but the recruits that helped us this year were Austin (a future pro) and to a much lesser degree Quinn, who could wind us as an excellent point guard. It is difficult to recruit kids that are both academically qualified and also highly gifted basketball players and athletes. Getting a couple of those players per year would quickly give this program the shot in the arm it needs. As far as height is concerned, teams like Murray State and Missouri were small at guard like us, but perhaps quicker. They had trouble competing in the tournament as we did. Sheed may help us in this way at 6'3" and if we have Austin back another year and play our small forwards, or get a super recruit at that position.

I agree with you that recruiting the right people is key to our success going forward. Kind of obvious, but this year it wasn't evident that it happened.

I understand and share your frustrations. Please let me address a few of your points:

Talent disparity with UNC -- UNC had 2-3 first-round draft picks decide to return to college; Duke had the overall #1 pick in the NBA draft jump to the league. Something similar happened after the 1998 season, but the shoe was on the other foot. Elton returned, but Vince and Antawn departed.

Recruiting is THE problem and must improve if Duke is to advance to or beyond the Sweet Sixteen -- We were a #1 seed last year and a #2 seed this year. We have been in the AP top ten every week for the last three years. And we have no chance of getting to the Sweet Sixteen? I do share your frustrations about the recent Duke games, but I think you have gone beyond reason in your conclusion.

Duke players on the bench don't get enough PT -- Well, everybody on the Carolina squad had to play this year, given the shortness of the roster due to transfers and the injuries that occurred. Normally, of course, Ol' Roy runs players in and out of the lineup like it's a fire drill. I don't want that done at Duke, and UNC fans have lots of doubts about Roy's game management skills. Duke uses a 7-8 man rotation, but this year nine players got significant minutes. Duke practices are reportedly brutal, and that's how players are supposed to develop. Yeah, I wanna see the new recruits play too, but it often doesn't happen.

FWIW, someone on this thread or another one had a roster for next year, assuming that both AR and Mason return and that Duke gets an additional recruit (Jefferson?) beyond Sheed. Uh,... oh-oh,... yikes!! That's a roster of 11 returning players plus two new recruits, all 13 of whom expect to play. I don't think that's gonna happen (although I would like it), but can you imagine the intensity of the discussion about rotation and PT on this well-moderated Board?

sagegrouse

[CDu]

FWIW, someone on this thread or another one had a roster for next year, assuming that both AR and Mason return and that Duke gets an additional recruit (Jefferson?) beyond Sheed. Uh,... oh-oh,... yikes!! That's a roster of 11 returning players plus two new recruits, all 13 of whom expect to play. I don't think that's gonna happen (although I would like it), but can you imagine the intensity of the discussion about rotation and PT on this well-moderated Board?

I didn't post the one you're referencing, but I did post a similar analysis assuming no additional recruits join the team.

Even if we lose both Mason and Rivers, we'll have 9 top-100 recruits (7 of them top 30-40 level guys when you consider where Murphy and Dawkins were in their class before coming early) and another guy who flew under the radar but has proven to be All-ACC caliber (Curry) on the roster. Considering that Coach K rarely plays more than 8 guys regularly, that leaves two guys in the scrapping for minor minutes. Depth next year is not going to be an issue any more than it was this year (other than that we had "too much" of it). The numbers game only gets more complicated if either Mason (who I expect to return) and/or Rivers (who I could opting either way) returns.

Not that I'd be complaining about that. It's just that we'll have a very diverse and intriguing group of players even without any additional guys coming in. And I hope/think that Coach K will leave the opportunities for playing time wide open. It'll just be a matter of who decides to step up and win minutes.