Originally Posted by
Dev11
If you're concerned that a kid hasn't made his college decision before May of his senior year, you need a serious reality check. Just because we start reading about these kids when they are sophomores and juniors in high school (the years that many of us began visiting colleges and had no clue what we were looking for in schools) doesn't mean they have to become stale when they are seniors. Heck, most any of us have seen are highlight reels or AAU-style competitions, neither of which project how a player will perform in college at all. If you don't believe me, go watch some old Olek Czyz high school highlights. (Spoiler: they're awesome)
Consider, also, that once they come to Duke and start playing (or anywhere else), all of their recruiting news is history. I don't think there are many analysts who take a look back at kids 2 or 3 years into college and re-evaluate what they saw in high school. Does it matter that Josh McRoberts was a better prospect than Tyler Hansborough when they were 17? Not a chance. I actually wish we visited it more often. People around here like to say that scout.com does a better job than rivals.com at evaluating prospects, but without proof other than general perception. I'd propose that you compare their rankings of the top 30 or 40 guys each year to those guys' eventual draft spot down the road.
If you can get 'sick' of hearing about a guy and don't care anymore about him, consider the similar thought process that goes through NBA GMs' minds as it relates to college seniors. Many GMs, if you believe what NBA draft analysts tell you, might have ignored prospects like Kyle Singler or Jon Scheyer because they were 'sick' of seeing them. Mason Plumlee is headed this way, too, in that he was considered a lottery pick after his lackluster freshman campaign and will likely not crack the lottery (my guess, but not hard to envision him in the 20-25 range) after a year in which he may well average a double-double and be in the hunt for All-ACC First Team.
My point, I suppose, is that people around here get worked up over prospects when they are really young and grow tired of them before they're even playing meaningful games in college. I mean, Quinn Cook was barely part of the rotation this year and we've been talking about him for 3 years now! Lighten up. The kids will choose their schools and we can't do anything about it except for the guys that end up in our shade of blue.
Go DUKE
Here's everything you need to know about recruiting rankings: In the 2007 class, ESPNU ranked Taylor King (16) above Blake Griffin (18). Amile Jefferson and Tony Parker are currently ranked 25 and 26, respectively. Are they more Taylor King or Blake Griffin, or somewhere in between? Recruiting is somewhat of a roll of the dice.
Personally, think we need one of those guys for the 2013-2014 season when Mason and Ryan are gone rahter than next season when I think our frontcourt will be relatively deep - I think Mason and Ryan should be expected to play a combined 60 minutes a game. The other 20 minutes at the 4/5 will be distributed between Josh and Alex - and 10 minutes each is not expecting too much. If Marshall is ready to contribute next year, then we'll be even deeper. If Jefferson and Parker are looking for the place where they'll get the most minutes as freshman, they won't go to Duke. If they are willing to be reserves and grow into starting roles (they'll both have that opportunity as sophomores) then they should consider Duke very strongly.
Singler is IRON
I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013