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  1. #281
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA

    Math

    Let's do a some stat. Let's say that the chances of us getting the following players is as follows (and I'm being very pessimistic here):

    Shabazz: 5%
    Tony Parker: 20%
    Amile Jefferson: 25%
    Trey Zeigler: 25%
    Alex Oriakhi: 10%

    The odds that we don't get any of them is 95% x 80% x 75% x 75% x 90%, which equals 38.5%. That means that the odds that we get at least 1 is 1 - 38.5%, or 61%.

    For Shabazz, Tony, and Amile, the chances that we get at least 1 is 43%. So, I come out of this thinking that there is a strong probability we get at least one.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  2. #282
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Let's do a some stat. Let's say that the chances of us getting the following players is as follows (and I'm being very pessimistic here):

    Shabazz: 5%
    Tony Parker: 20%
    Amile Jefferson: 25%
    Trey Zeigler: 25%
    Alex Oriakhi: 10%

    The odds that we don't get any of them is 95% x 80% x 75% x 75% x 90%, which equals 38.5%. That means that the odds that we get at least 1 is 1 - 38.5%, or 61%.

    For Shabazz, Tony, and Amile, the chances that we get at least 1 is 43%. So, I come out of this thinking that there is a strong probability we get at least one.
    You're ignoring the joint probability issues. These are not independent events. For example, if Mason returns, the probability of Oriakhi or Park drops to below 1%. If Mason returns and Muhammad chooses UCLA, I'd say the chances of getting Parker or Oriakhi is basically 0%. Zeigler and Muhammad are mutually exclusive as well.

  3. #283
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    You're ignoring the joint probability issues. These are not independent events. For example, if Mason returns, the probability of Oriakhi or Park drops to below 1%. If Mason returns and Muhammad chooses UCLA, I'd say the chances of getting Parker or Oriakhi is basically 0%. Zeigler and Muhammad are mutually exclusive as well.
    Yes, but I think his original point still stands (if you include Mason, who I think is the most important "recruit") that the doom and gloom situation where we don't add anyone to the roster and are only a top 12-18 team is unlikely.

  4. #284
    Quote Originally Posted by airowe View Post
    Sorry, I meant to link his DraftExpress.com profile that takes measurements from the Nike Hoop Summit I believe: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...Sulaimon-6280/
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    We can maybe judge who's right on this height-issue, for .....

    4. Rasheed will play on the US Junior National Select Team in the upcoming Nike Hoop Summit. [TV alert: this Sat eve, 4/7, 10 p.m. FoxSportsSouth]
    5. He's also in the Jordan Brand Classic. [TV alert: Sat 4/14, 7 p.m. ESPN]
    Well, the link from DraftExpress says 6'4.5". That's sort of in between the 6'4" and 6'5", so I won't quibble over a half inch. I will say that I wonder where the DraftExpress measurements came from. It seems too early to be from the Hoops Summit (who still list Sulaimon as 6'3").

    In any case, my point was in reference to playing SF. If we're talking about playing PG/SG, I agree that Sulaimon is plenty tall and long enough. His game is very reminiscent of Nolan Smith's (with perhaps a better 3pt shot). He's very much in the PG/SG mold, not the SG/SF mold.

    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Two well-known nutters, airowe and CDu. Obviously loony. Discount their opinions re Sulaimon. Pencil him in for 3 mpg overall and DNP by ACC schedule.
    Yeah, I'm very high on the kid. Which is obviously setting him up for failure.

  5. #285
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    Yes, but I think his original point still stands (if you include Mason, who I think is the most important "recruit") that the doom and gloom situation where we don't add anyone to the roster and are only a top 12-18 team is unlikely.
    Well, this gives us a pretty good idea how lucky we are--when the "doom and gloom" situation still projects as a top 20 team.

  6. #286
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    Yes, but I think his original point still stands (if you include Mason, who I think is the most important "recruit") that the doom and gloom situation where we don't add anyone to the roster and are only a top 12-18 team is unlikely.
    Well, that was also my original point, so I completely agree there. Given what everyone else is losing and what we're gaining relative to what we're losing, I think we're a top-10 team if Mason returns. I was just quibbling with the math.

  7. #287
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    While it's not a shock to see us not listed in the top 25 recruiting classes, it is good to see the ACC has 6 teams listed total. And even better to see that two of those are Wake and GT. ('Cuse and Pitt are also listed but no sense in counting them yet.)

    http://insider.espn.go.com/college-s...classmonth%3d4

    I'd love to see the ACC viewed as a power conference again, and it of course starts with recruiting.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  8. #288
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Well, the link from DraftExpress says 6'4.5". That's sort of in between the 6'4" and 6'5", so I won't quibble over a half inch. I will say that I wonder where the DraftExpress measurements came from. It seems too early to be from the Hoops Summit (who still list Sulaimon as 6'3").
    I was rounding up . And those measurements are from last year's Hoop Summit if I remember correctly.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    In any case, my point was in reference to playing SF. If we're talking about playing PG/SG, I agree that Sulaimon is plenty tall and long enough. His game is very reminiscent of Nolan Smith's (with perhaps a better 3pt shot). He's very much in the PG/SG mold, not the SG/SF mold.
    Ah, didn't realize that. My bad.

  9. #289
    Quote Originally Posted by airowe View Post
    I was rounding up . And those measurements are from last year's Hoop Summit if I remember correctly.
    Out of curiosity, was Sulaimon even at last season's Hoop Summit? And why would they list him at 6'3" this year if they measured him at 6'4.5" last year? Again, it is neither here nor there. I just find that odd.

  10. #290
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Out of curiosity, was Sulaimon even at last season's Hoop Summit?
    Nope. Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Teague, Wroten, Beal, Rivers, Cook. Also the great James McAdoo. Remember?

  11. #291
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Nope. Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Teague, Wroten, Beal, Rivers, Cook. Also the great James McAdoo. Remember?
    Yeah, that was my recollection as well.

  12. #292
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Out of curiosity, was Sulaimon even at last season's Hoop Summit? And why would they list him at 6'3" this year if they measured him at 6'4.5" last year? Again, it is neither here nor there. I just find that odd.
    I think Sulaimon measurements are from the Amare camp last summer. See this thread. Greg Newton mentions them in post #7, but the pdf linked is now broken.
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

  13. #293
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, that was my recollection as well.
    Wait, you messed up. You thought to respond to the fact that Sulaimon wasn't there. But my post also included a ref to "the great James McAdoo," so your post here finally - finally, thank heavens - acknowledges his absolute marvelousness in that game, and thenceforward.

    If it's any consolation, I've put you back in my will.

  14. #294
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Wait, you messed up. You thought to respond to the fact that Sulaimon wasn't there. But my post also included a ref to "the great James McAdoo," so your post here finally - finally, thank heavens - acknowledges his absolute marvelousness in that game, and thenceforward.

    If it's any consolation, I've put you back in my will.
    Yes, I completely agree that his 6 points on 2-4 shooting in that game was absolute marvelousness.

  15. #295
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yes, I completely agree that his 6 points on 2-4 shooting in that game was absolute marvelousness.
    I accept your friendly amendment, if reluctantly.

  16. #296
    Just saw two interesting tweets on twitter:

    Mark Watson: "yessir"
    Tyler Thornton: "meet the brand new guys"

    Prefer not to read into this, but gotta wonder.

  17. #297
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Quote Originally Posted by diveonthefloor View Post
    Just saw two interesting tweets on twitter:

    Mark Watson: "yessir"
    Tyler Thornton: "meet the brand new guys"

    Prefer not to read into this, but gotta wonder.

    Could be unrelated, but ya never know. Interesting nonetheless

  18. #298
    Quote Originally Posted by diveonthefloor View Post
    Just saw two interesting tweets on twitter:

    Mark Watson: "yessir"
    Tyler Thornton: "meet the brand new guys"

    Prefer not to read into this, but gotta wonder.
    Any idea what those tweets were in reference to?

  19. #299
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hudson Valley
    Quote Originally Posted by diveonthefloor View Post
    Just saw two interesting tweets on twitter:

    Mark Watson: "yessir"
    Tyler Thornton: "meet the brand new guys"

    Prefer not to read into this, but gotta wonder.
    guys - plural?

  20. #300
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by diveonthefloor View Post
    Just saw two interesting tweets on twitter:

    Mark Watson: "yessir"
    Tyler Thornton: "meet the brand new guys"

    Prefer not to read into this, but gotta wonder.
    Ahhh...it's probably nothing, just personal greetings, no big deal.

    Okay....I admit it, I'm hooked....tell me, tell me.
    Some new talent popping out of a Duke blue Easter egg?

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