Originally Posted by
forbiddendonut
Based on kenpom numbers, Duke is an incredibly weak #2 seed. In the kenpom era (2003-), these are the three #2 seeds whose kenpom numbers were in the same ballpark as the 2012 Duke Blue Devils: 2003 Wake Forest, 2006 Tennessee and 2010 Villanova. Let's look at how they did in the tournament (or just look away now if you are a Duke fan and have a weak stomach) -
2003 Wake: Beat #15 East Tenn. St. by 3 and lost to #10 Auburn by 6
2006 Tennessee: Beat #15 Winthrop by 2 and lost to #7 Wichita St by 7
2010 Villanova: Beat #15 Robert Morris by 3 and lost to #10 St Mary's by 7
I swear I did not pick these three teams knowing that they performed similarly in the tournament. I just looked back to find teams that were similar in ranking to Duke and also placed on the #2 line and then found their results which are strikingly consistent (and deeply troubling if you are a Duke fan).
Only 2003 Wake (0.8928) and 2006 Tennessee (0.8897) are behind Duke (0.8971) in kenpom ranking but their numbers include their putrid performance in the NCAA tournament [2010 Nova ended up at 0.9011]. I would guess that at the time of seeding, Duke is the lowest rated #2 seed of the kenpom era.
But you're missing the remaining #s. Let's look at the opponents these teams lost to:
2010 Nova - St. Mary's - .8591 Pythag Rating (Admittedly including win over Nova)
2006 Tenn - Wichita State - .8491 Pythag (Including win over Tennessee).
Both of these teams faced opponents who were within 20 kenpom ranks of them. Or less in Tenn's case.
Now let's look at Duke's potential 2nd round matchups:
.8184 Notre Dame
.7812 Xavier.
These opponents are a good deal worse than SMC and WSU.
So yeah, it's true we're a pretty weak 2 seed. But we got the easiest draw to the S16.
<devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink
Carolina Delenda Est