South/Atlanta region discussion (Kentucky #1)

[SCMatt33]

yeah we got hosed...

our sum is 32...it should be 34...

It could actually be worse. The rules say that the separation between the best and the worst region must be 5 or less. You can actually have a region with 31. That's the problem with no good teams out west. You end up with hard regions in the East. Baylor couldn't go to the Midwest or the West because KU and Mizzou were there and Atlanta's closer to Waco than Boston, and the overall balance wasn't violated so there they are. It happens, If they had released seeds from other years, Duke was probably in one of the easier regions. The really unfortunate part is that not only does Duke have the hardest region, they have terrible matchups too. There aren't many smaller teams in this region, and that's who Duke can beat easiest.

The other thing I'm wondering is how the crowd in Albuquerque will play out. It's Waco is a little farther than Vegas, but neither is that close. I wonder if New Mexico fans will root for or against their conference-mate.

[1 24 90]

Overall, while Baylor and Kentucky seem like really tough #1 and #3 seeds, respectively, I think this bracket is okay for us. If we were in the East with 'Cuse, we'd have a potential matchup with WVU in the second round which seems tougher to me than Notre Dame (of course, it's possible those won't materialize). Our second round could be much worse (or the new "third round", I guess.) Baylor could easily get upset by UNLV as well. And if we get to the Elite 8, Coach K is like 8-1 in those situations so I like our chances and at that point, everything would be considered gravy. It's fun and easy to complain. The only second round matchup I'd prefer to ours is Kansas with Purdue/St. Mary's. Florida is no cupcake for Mizzou and WVU could be a tough out for OSU. So, the late games might be more difficult if we get there, but by then, the brackets may be something we'd never expect as upsets happen.

Cmon bluedog, I know you know that Coach K is 11-1 in regional finals!

[hurleyfor3]

They just said again that they don't have time to worry about things like that. They're in such a rush to put the thing together that they don't think "oh UK/Uconn/VCU in the same bracket" or "UK/Duke 20 years later"

people love to come up with conspiracy theories...but they're just not there....we'd be saying the same thing if Uconn was playing Syracuse, or Uconn was playing Duke....they had to play SOME big name program, and it happened to be UK when they finished the bracket.

With 63 games and billions of permutations...there's going to be "matchups that they ABSOLUTELY set up" regardless of how you put the bracket together

I realize that, but they could have slotted Uconn into any of the 8/9 or 7/10 games other than Syracuse's. And they chose Ky's fork. And it's not just that Uconn fits the "high-profile program with lots of talent that has gone through rough patches during the year" mold. They played Ky in the Final Four LAST YEAR. I had always heard the committee tries to avoid matchups from the previous year's tourney in the first few rounds, although this is more of a "guideline" than a "rule".

[DU82]

What's the official source for game times and an ETA on that decision? I'm guessing we'll play in the afternoon, because UNC's opponent will play Wednesday night, and the chair of the committee stated that they're trying to get them a little extra time (unlike Clemson last year.)

[Bluedog]

Cmon bluedog, I know you know that Coach K is 11-1 in regional finals!

You're right, I do know how many Final Fours he's been to. Don't know what I was thinking! I clearly wasn't...

[sporthenry]

Overall, while Baylor and Kentucky seem like really tough #1 and #3 seeds, respectively, I think this bracket is okay for us. If we were in the East with 'Cuse, we'd have a potential matchup with WVU in the second round which seems tougher to me than Notre Dame (of course, it's possible those won't materialize). Our second round could be much worse (or the new "third round", I guess.) Baylor could easily get upset by UNLV as well. And if we get to the Elite 8, Coach K is like 8-1 in those situations so I like our chances and at that point, everything would be considered gravy. It's fun and easy to complain. The only second round matchup I'd prefer to ours is Kansas with Purdue/St. Mary's. Florida is no cupcake for Mizzou and WVU could be a tough out for OSU. So, the late games might be more difficult if we get there, but by then, the brackets may be something we'd never expect as upsets happen.

I agree that we lucked out with third round avoiding Memphis, Uconn, and Florida. The rest of the 7-10's seem to be a dime a dozen and see minimal difference between WVU or ND. Xavier has been underachieving and are probably high to be a 10 seed but they have a guard who could burn us. Luckily, I see TT being able to shut down Tu if it gets that way.

[uh_no]

I realize that, but they could have slotted Uconn into any of the 8/9 or 7/10 games other than Syracuse's. And they chose Ky's fork. And it's not just that Uconn fits the "high-profile program with lots of talent that has gone through rough patches during the year" mold. They played Ky in the Final Four LAST YEAR. I had always heard the committee tries to avoid matchups from the previous year's tourney in the first few rounds, although this is more of a "guideline" than a "rule".

I mean everything you read or hear would lead you to believe the committee doesn't think about such things and doesn't have the time to.

The only people who think the committee does such things is the fans.

I'm not sure there is any reason to believe otherwise. As I said, there were three places they could have slotted them. They happened to put them with UK. If it wasn't UK and Uconn, it would be two other teams....people will always find a story.

[ncexnyc]

Why all the crying about the draw? I seem to recall hearing about parity in college basketball, so I don't believe there is that big a difference between who is number x and who is number y. The games are won on the court and it will come down to heart, desire, and execution.

Oh yeah, all this whining about Baylor, isn't that the same Baylor team which was light years beyond us athletically just 2 years ago?

[loran16]

The committee seeds based upon S-Curve. But there's no reason their assessments are better than say Pomeroy's system.

Duke's bracket isn't that bad compared to the West by Pomeroy. But the committee might think otherwise, perhaps because the better teams in the West aren't as big names. That's an obvious bias of the committee, but you're accepting it as legitimate.

We were going to have problems with any top 16 team. We got a good 2nd round game. Why are you complaining?

[OldSchool]

Ryan's foot is my biggest concern.

We need him to be fluid and feeling comfortable shooting by the time we see Notre Dame or Xavier. His ability to pull a big away from the basket is a key to our high pick-and-roll game and opportunities for offensive rebounding.

If Ryan is healthy and feeling good, I like our chances. If Miles and Mason can avoid the senseless fouls and our guards shoot reasonably well, we can get through this bracket.

[DukieTiger]

I'm very tempted to look at the "big picture" of the bracket and all the names in the bracket, but here is a Pomeroy-centric breakdown of how our match ups line up with the other 2 seeds.

First round: We absolutely drew the toughest 15 seed. Lehigh is ranked 83rd in KenPom, while Detroit (KU's draw) is 115, Loyola (OSU) is 128, and Norfolk (Mizzou- remember, they were the lowest 2 seed) is 213- lower than multiple 16 seeds, btw. Hopefully it won't matter, but we definitely got a less favorable draw than "8th overall" Mizzou, which is weird because the 15th seed is like the one thing that the committee can totally control for the 2 seeds according to the S-curve.

Second round matchup: We would face either Notre Dame or Xavier (51 or 41.) KU draws either 42 or 24, OSU draws either 32 or 43, Mizzou draws either 19 or 26. The only team that really has a 2nd round matchup that stands above the others- again, according to KenPom- would be Mizzou. I wouldn't want Florida as our 7 seed, personally.

Sweet Sixteen matchup: Obviously, a lot of variables at this point, but I'll give it my shot. Duke would either face Baylor (14), UNLV (33), South Dakota St (55) or Colorado (76).

Kansas potentially would get Georgetown (12), Belmont (22), SD State (52), or NC State (44). I think we got the tougher draw of the 3 and 6 seed, and the lower seeds in Kansas' side are more likely to pull the upset. So that actually works to KU's advantage.

OSU would draw Gonzaga (32), WVU (43), St. Bonaventure (59), or FSU (23). I think they got a favorable draw in the regional semis, all around.

Mizzou would play Marquette (18), BYU/Iona (50/56), Murray St. (45) or Colorado St. (75). I also think that Mizzou got a favorable draw in their half of their region.

So interestingly, according to KenPom and my own humble opinion it looks like the lower 2-seeds, OSU and Mizzou, got tougher draws in the first 2 rounds, but easier draws for potential Sweet 16 matchups, than did KU and Duke. I would also extend that to the Regional Finals as well, because I think UNC/UK are the two best teams in the field, and they got stuck with the top two, 2-seeds. Interesting. I don't think our region is as tough as it seems (other than UK) but I definitely think we got the toughest 3 seed. But by the time you get to the Sweet 16, you have to beat a pretty darn good team to advance. I'm glad we don't play Florida, UConn, or Memphis in the 2nd round though.

[Delaware]

Lehigh... high scoring team (28th in the country at 76.2 per game).
We will need to score, something we have not done the past few weeks.

If we get by them, I am certainly hoping for ND, a slower and less offensive minded team... the Xavier guards will go 100 miles and hour and see this is as their NCAA championship game.

[sporthenry]

Why all the crying about the draw? I seem to recall hearing about parity in college basketball, so I don't believe there is that big a difference between who is number x and who is number y. The games are won on the court and it will come down to heart, desire, and execution.

Oh yeah, all this whining about Baylor, isn't that the same Baylor team which was light years beyond us athletically just 2 years ago?

Yes, and two years ago our defense was light years beyond this year. We sagged off prevented penetration. And oh yeah, we had a beast in the middle who rebounded everything. Have fun getting this team to rebound versus a team with Jones at 6'11, Miller at 6'9 and Acy at 6'7. Not to mention, we have no SF to cover one with size. And we probably won't be able to keep Pierre Jackson out of the lane. Hopefully, someone else takes care of them but I'll certainly eat my crow if Duke wins but its a tough matchup and I'd much rather see Marquette who have a lot less size and K seemed to bottle up Crowder and DJ Odom last year.

[Greg_Newton]

Well, according to Pomeroy, we're the weakest 2. By far.

Also, with all the talk about the ncaa "grooving" the matchups, no one has mentioned ky/uconn in the round of 32. They absolutely set that one up. Reminds me of when they threw Georgetown at unlv in 1991.

Not according to the Selection Committee, though, which is what matters in terms of seeding. We were given the #2 15 seed (who is really, by far, the best #15), the #1 7-seed, the #1 3-seed, and the #1-seed, which is absurd for the supposed #6 overall team.

Now statistically and practically, ND is a very weak 7-seed and good matchup for us. However, that's irrelevant to where it was placed relative to its s-curve ranking assigned by the committee

[uh_no]

Not according to the Selection Committee, though, which is what matters in terms of seeding. We were given the #2 15 seed (who is really, by far, the best #15), the #1 7-seed, the #1 3-seed, and the #1-seed, which is absurd for the supposed #6 overall team.

Now statistically and practically, ND is a very weak 7-seed and good matchup for us. However, that's irrelevant to where it was placed relative to its s-curve ranking assigned by the committee

uirghhhh...have they posted the full s curve online yet?

[sporthenry]

So interestingly, according to KenPom and my own humble opinion it looks like the lower 2-seeds, OSU and Mizzou, got tougher draws in the first 2 rounds, but easier draws for potential Sweet 16 matchups, than did KU and Duke. I would also extend that to the Regional Finals as well, because I think UNC/UK are the two best teams in the field, and they got stuck with the top two, 2-seeds. Interesting. I don't think our region is as tough as it seems (other than UK) but I definitely think we got the toughest 3 seed. But by the time you get to the Sweet 16, you have to beat a pretty darn good team to advance. I'm glad we don't play Florida, UConn, or Memphis in the 2nd round though.

This brings up a good question in would you rather face a tougher 7-10 team and get an easier 3-6 seed or vice-versa. Personally, I'll take the tougher 7-10 and easier 3-6 seed. First off, the 7-10 would be coming off normally a tougher first round game as opposed to us versus a 15 seed and this year while I still like K given 5 days to prepare, think that Duke can be game planned for so I'd much rather see an easier team come the second weekend.

[sporthenry]

Not according to the Selection Committee, though, which is what matters in terms of seeding. We were given the #2 15 seed (who is really, by far, the best #15), the #1 7-seed, the #1 3-seed, and the #1-seed, which is absurd for the supposed #6 overall team.

Now statistically and practically, ND is a very weak 7-seed and good matchup for us. However, that's irrelevant to where it was placed relative to its s-curve ranking assigned by the committee

Well I think the committee is only concerned with the S-curve to make sure 1-4 in each bracket is relatively equal (which we drew the short straw this year). The rest of the bracket is guided more by conference and rematch potential that the S-curve is more used secondly. And yes we might have a tough #15, but if we are that worried about losing to Lehigh (not that we should take them lightly) then we shouldn't be too concerned about the S16 matchups or beyond.

[Gthoma2a]

I am a little scared for a strange reason. I don't feel TOO worried about a lot of this bracket. I know that I should fear teams like UNLV and Notre Dame, but I don't. Indiana doesn't scare me because of us playing a Zeller so many times in the past. Then, you have Baylor. Baylor is very good, but I think we are a little better. I fear Kentucky, but Elite 8 would be an amazing surprise compared to what I have been expecting for a while.

[FerryFor50]

I don't like our chances if Duke has to play Baylor or UNLV. Here's hoping they choke early!

[stixof96]

I'm more worried about the Lehigh game than the game after, assuming we make it to that point. Lehigh is very underrated. This Duke team is ripe to be taken out early, especially if Ryan is still out.

Xavier would be a tough challenge...