View Poll Results: Who will win?

Voters
176. You may not vote on this poll
  • Kentucky

    74 42.05%
  • Duke

    89 50.57%
  • Baylor

    5 2.84%
  • Indiana

    1 0.57%
  • Wichita State

    4 2.27%
  • UNLV

    1 0.57%
  • Notre Dame

    1 0.57%
  • Iowa State

    0 0%
  • Connecticut

    0 0%
  • Xavier

    0 0%
  • Colorado

    0 0%
  • VCU

    0 0%
  • New Mexico State

    0 0%
  • South Dakota State

    1 0.57%
  • 15/16 seeds

    0 0%
Page 11 of 16 FirstFirst ... 910111213 ... LastLast
Results 201 to 220 of 313
  1. #201
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC

    Youth and Young Youths

    The only really young team I could think of to compare UK to was the 2003 Syracuse title team. Here's their distribution of minutes:

    Carmelo - Freshman - 1274
    McNamara - Freshman - 1235
    Warrick Sophomore - 1146
    Duany - Senior - 944
    McNeil - Junior - 657
    Forth - Sophomore - 618
    Edelin - Freshman - 533
    Pace - Sophomore - 469

    No one else had over 100 minutes on the year.

    Minutes broken down by class.

    Freshman - 3042 (44%)
    Sophomore - 2233 (32%)
    Senior - 944 (14%)
    Junior - 657 (10%)
    Total - 6876

    Here's a similar comparison for UK this year:

    Teague - Freshman - 1102
    Davis - Freshman - 1073
    Lamb - Sophomore - 1060
    Gilchrist - Freshman - 1059
    Jones - Sophomore - 922
    Miller - Senior - 861
    Wiltjer - Freshman - 427
    Vargas - Senior - 191

    Freshman - 3661 (55%)
    Sophomore - 1982 (30%)
    Senior - 1052 (15%)
    Total - 6695

    So UK gives 11% more minutes to freshmen, and about the same to everyone else. The difference comes from having no juniors on the roster. They all went pro after 2010 season.

    That's younger than the 2003 Cuse roster, but not that much younger.

  2. #202
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    2003 Syracuse
    Freshman - 3042 (44%)
    Sophomore - 2233 (32%)

    2012 Kentucky
    Freshman - 3661 (55%)
    Sophomore - 1982 (30%)

    Another way to think about this is 76% of Cuse's minutes went to underclassmen. 85% of UK's minutes are going to underclassmen.

  3. #203
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Another way to think about this is 76% of Cuse's minutes went to underclassmen. 85% of UK's minutes are going to underclassmen.
    Yes, and that is a difference of 18 minutes a game, which to me seems fairly significant. That's the equivalent of one upperclassman, solid rotation player that Kentucky doesn't have, and that's comparing them to the youngest team you can think of.

  4. #204
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Yes, and that is a difference of 18 minutes a game, which to me seems fairly significant. That's the equivalent of one upperclassman, solid rotation player that Kentucky doesn't have, and that's comparing them to the youngest team you can think of.
    That's a good way of thinking about it. The one guy from Cuse who fits that description is McNeil and he averaged 3 and 4 a game, which is hardly irreplaceable.

    I'd also argue that UK's collection of talent is way better - Davis is pegged at #1 in the draft, Gilchrist #2, Jones #18, Teague #39, Lamb #51. Melo went #3 that year, Warrick went #19 in 2005 and McNamara went undrafted.

    Also, Cuse went into the NCAAs with 5 losses on the year and UK only has 2.

    If UK had a veteran leader like Josh Harrelson was last year, I'd feel better about it. Part of my thinking in picking UK is that all the other teams have flaws or have under-performed for stretches of this season.

    Super "Maybe I'll go to the East Region discussion and start arguing for Ohio State now" Dave

  5. #205
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    The only really young team I could think of to compare UK to was the 2003 Syracuse title team. Here's their distribution of minutes:

    Carmelo - Freshman - 1274
    McNamara - Freshman - 1235
    Warrick Sophomore - 1146
    Duany - Senior - 944
    McNeil - Junior - 657
    Forth - Sophomore - 618
    Edelin - Freshman - 533
    Pace - Sophomore - 469

    No one else had over 100 minutes on the year.

    Minutes broken down by class.

    Freshman - 3042 (44%)
    Sophomore - 2233 (32%)
    Senior - 944 (14%)
    Junior - 657 (10%)
    Total - 6876

    Here's a similar comparison for UK this year:

    Teague - Freshman - 1102
    Davis - Freshman - 1073
    Lamb - Sophomore - 1060
    Gilchrist - Freshman - 1059
    Jones - Sophomore - 922
    Miller - Senior - 861
    Wiltjer - Freshman - 427
    Vargas - Senior - 191

    Freshman - 3661 (55%)
    Sophomore - 1982 (30%)
    Senior - 1052 (15%)
    Total - 6695

    So UK gives 11% more minutes to freshmen, and about the same to everyone else. The difference comes from having no juniors on the roster. They all went pro after 2010 season.

    That's younger than the 2003 Cuse roster, but not that much younger.
    What was the minutes breakdown for the 05-06 Florida team? I think the core of that team was sophomores.

  6. #206
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    That's a good way of thinking about it. The one guy from Cuse who fits that description is McNeil and he averaged 3 and 4 a game, which is hardly irreplaceable.
    It's not the production that needs to be replaced, it's the veteran savvy. Kentucky has already started to show adverse reaction to pressure in the SEC tournament. Doesn't mean they won't win the championship, but as I said before it would be a historically young team to do so.

  7. #207
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by NashvilleDevil View Post
    What was the minutes breakdown for the 05-06 Florida team? I think the core of that team was sophomores.
    FLORIDA, 2006
    ----------------
    Freshmen: 1071 minutes (14%)
    Sophomores: 4380 minutes (57%)
    Juniors: 1819 minutes (23.5%)
    Seniors: 437 minutes (5.5%)

    Upperclassmen provided 29% of the minutes, a bit more than 2003 Syracuse's 24% and almost twice as much as 2012 Kentucky's 15%.

  8. #208
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    FLORIDA, 2006
    ----------------
    Freshmen: 1071 minutes (14%)
    Sophomores: 4380 minutes (57%)
    Juniors: 1819 minutes (23.5%)
    Seniors: 437 minutes (5.5%)

    Upperclassmen provided 29% of the minutes, a bit more than 2003 Syracuse's 24% and almost twice as much as 2012 Kentucky's 15%.
    That team is probably more comparable to this year's UK team from a talent standpoint - in 2007 Horford went #3, Brewer went #7, Noah went #9, Green went #52. But they were sophomores, even though none had as big a freshman year as any of the top UK guys had as freshmen this year or last.

  9. #209
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    That team is probably more comparable to this year's UK team from a talent standpoint - in 2007 Horford went #3, Brewer went #7, Noah went #9, Green went #52. But they were sophomores, even though none had as big a freshman year as any of the top UK guys had as freshmen this year or last.
    Horford, Brewer, Noah and Green were juniors in 2007... The year of their second national title

  10. #210
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    They're good, of course, but if they win the championship it will be a historic first. No team with such a young roster has ever won it. Kentucky starts 3 freshmen and 2 sophomores, and the rest of the rotation consists of a freshman and a senior. One upperclassman of their players who get meaningful minutes.

    Even the Fab Five Michigan team had three upperclassmen in its rotation. Plus, they didn't win, though obviously they came close.
    Interesting. Their guys were so hyped even in high school that I forget just how inexperienced they are sometimes.

    I think the one gamechanger that they have in that respect is Anthony Davis, though. He's kind of a safety net for anything; even if they start playing their age during a certain game, that guy can clean up mistakes like no other. What he does is so easy for him physically that it's almost hard for him to have an "off night," especially on the defensive end. Plus, Terrance Jones is an aggressive, physical beast with more big-time NCAA performances under his belt than 99% of players in the country as a sophomore.

    I'll be most interested to see how Teague holds up. I've always thought he was an unreliable wild card, who was capable of some explosive players but very overrated as an overall PG. He seems to be growing up as of late, but I'm not sure how well I trust him to stay on an even keel for a 6-game NCAA run.

  11. #211
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg_Newton View Post
    Interesting. Their guys were so hyped even in high school that I forget just how inexperienced they are sometimes.

    I think the one gamechanger that they have in that respect is Anthony Davis, though. He's kind of a safety net for anything; even if they start playing their age during a certain game, that guy can clean up mistakes like no other. What he does is so easy for him physically that it's almost hard for him to have an "off night," especially on the defensive end. Plus, Terrance Jones is an aggressive, physical beast with more big-time NCAA performances under his belt than 99% of players in the country as a sophomore.

    I'll be most interested to see how Teague holds up. I've always thought he was an unreliable wild card, who was capable of some explosive players but very overrated as an overall PG. He seems to be growing up as of late, but I'm not sure how well I trust him to stay on an even keel for a 6-game NCAA run.
    I think UK's inexperience showed in the SEC tournament. They beat a mediocre LSU team by only 9 points (60-51), beat Florida (a #7 seed in the NCAAT) by only 3 (74-71), and then lost to Vanderbilt (a #5 seed in the NCAAT) by 7 (64-71). Teague shot 0 for 5 against LSU, for 2 points, and 0 for 7 against Vanderbilt, for zero points. Will Kentucky bounce back now? Probably, they're very talented. But it's a lot of pressure for such a young team.

  12. #212
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I think UK's inexperience showed in the SEC tournament. They beat a mediocre LSU team by only 9 points (60-51), beat Florida (a #7 seed in the NCAAT) by only 3 (74-71), and then lost to Vanderbilt (a #5 seed in the NCAAT) by 7 (64-71). Teague shot 0 for 5 against LSU, for 2 points, and 0 for 7 against Vanderbilt, for zero points. Will Kentucky bounce back now? Probably, they're very talented. But it's a lot of pressure for such a young team.
    Not to mention they were down in each of those games....I argue their gaudy record is very much the product of a terrible SEC slate...

    UNC played them to within 1, louisville to within 7....if they had to play those caliber of teams all the time...in the Big 10/12/east....or even have to play a few times against UNC/Duke and FSU....they would have at least 3-4 losses.
    usa

  13. #213
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I think UK's inexperience showed in the SEC tournament. They beat a mediocre LSU team by only 9 points (60-51), beat Florida (a #7 seed in the NCAAT) by only 3 (74-71), and then lost to Vanderbilt (a #5 seed in the NCAAT) by 7 (64-71). Teague shot 0 for 5 against LSU, for 2 points, and 0 for 7 against Vanderbilt, for zero points. Will Kentucky bounce back now? Probably, they're very talented. But it's a lot of pressure for such a young team.
    Kentucky won't win it. They will definately have a meltdown again before these 6 pressure games are done.

  14. #214
    Some of their fans are already melting down lol:
    http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...t%7CSports%7Cs

  15. #215
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    I don't think the lack of experience is what will do Kentucky in. I think it's the fact that every one of their players expects to be in the NBA next year, and the tournament is their place to prove it. I'm sure Calipari tries to sell them all on the fact that winning is the most important thing, that it will help their draft status if they win as a team, but seriously, what are the chances they'll believe that?

  16. #216
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Kentucky is the one team that I would not be surprised either way, meaning I could see them win it all or I could see them get beat this weekend. The team dynamics give you an argument either way. I do think too much youth can be a bit of a downfall in the tourney but sometimes the talent is so great it can cover the inexperience up.

    In the end it is hard for me to fill out my bracket and not put them in the Final 4. But deep down I feel their lack of consistent perimeter shooting and turnover prone/overrated point guard will do them in before New Orleans

  17. #217
    Pomeroy's giving Kentucky a 19% chance at winning the title. That's better than any other team, but it also means that in the thousands and thousands of simulations that were run, someone else won the title more than 80% of the time. But their odds are quite good to win it- they have roughly the same chance of going to the NC game as Duke does of making the Elite 8.

    While Kentucky is a very good team and has been dominant this year (I find it funny when we talk about a team with 2 total losses as having meltdowns) I don't think there is anything regarding their youth or their makeup (re: pro auditions, etc.) that will cause them to "choke." If Kentucky loses, I could see it being for one of two reasons:

    1) They have a bad night and/or they run into a team having an awesome night. People make a lot of noise about teams (including Duke) choking, but what makes March Madness so great is that legitimately anyone can win on any night. Sometimes the "best" teams don't win it all. Sometimes they do.

    2) Lack of depth. What happens if Davis gets into foul trouble? Or Teague? For all the talent they have, they need their key players to stay out of foul trouble in order for them to truly click on all cylinders. Duh. Doesn't everyone. But who knows if that will happen 6 times in a row over the next 3 weeks?

  18. #218
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I don't think the lack of experience is what will do Kentucky in. I think it's the fact that every one of their players expects to be in the NBA next year, and the tournament is their place to prove it. I'm sure Calipari tries to sell them all on the fact that winning is the most important thing, that it will help their draft status if they win as a team, but seriously, what are the chances they'll believe that?

    The problem, in my opinion, is that calipari just isn't a great xs and os or in game coach....his offense is pretty much dribble it and drive....if you get stuck pass it...his defense is basic man to man....credit him for getting them to play ANY defense....so in that sense I guess he has some motivational skills....but you just look at the way his teams lose....the game against west virginia rings huge....they were something like 0-24 from 3pt in the first half? what kind of half decent coach doesn't make the necessary adjustments, or is UNABLE to make said adjustments when their team is so frequently doing something they are so horrendously bad at (and make no mistake, that UK team was not a great 3pt shooting team all season)...he had no idea what to do...duke takes a lot of threes, but 24 in a half is crazy....and when you're making 0 of them, you know that not all of them could have been good shots....(and we won't even get to the fact that he and his team were looking forward to duke in the final 4...)


    furthermore...freethrows....cost him the (what would have been vacated) national title against kansas, cost him the game against uconn last year (4-12)...not to mention they shot 55% (16-29) in the second half....


    part of it is that he has inexperienced guys every year who are going to be less coachable and who are going to make stupid mistakes.....part of it is that he gets top recruits and plays in a weak conference, gets a high seed, and then some good team comes along and puts him in his place (that was his mojo at memphis....and the SEC hasn't been much better since he's been there...)
    usa

  19. #219
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I think UK's inexperience showed in the SEC tournament. They beat a mediocre LSU team by only 9 points (60-51), beat Florida (a #7 seed in the NCAAT) by only 3 (74-71), and then lost to Vanderbilt (a #5 seed in the NCAAT) by 7 (64-71). Teague shot 0 for 5 against LSU, for 2 points, and 0 for 7 against Vanderbilt, for zero points. Will Kentucky bounce back now? Probably, they're very talented. But it's a lot of pressure for such a young team.
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I don't think the lack of experience is what will do Kentucky in. I think it's the fact that every one of their players expects to be in the NBA next year, and the tournament is their place to prove it. I'm sure Calipari tries to sell them all on the fact that winning is the most important thing, that it will help their draft status if they win as a team, but seriously, what are the chances they'll believe that?
    I think you both are missing the most direct point. Kentucky is not a great three point shooting team, and that's what showed in the SEC tournament.

    When they lose to Wichita State, it'll be because they get baited into taking more threes than they should, while their opponent makes a great percentage of them.

  20. #220
    The NCAAT creates the perfect mine field for Kty. All of their skel;etons in the closet come pouring out as soon as a team steps up and hits them in the mouth early and keeps the pressure on them after that. Kty is like a big ole balloon, all you have to do is put a little hole in it at will blow itself up after that.

Similar Threads

  1. East/Boston region discussion (Syracuse #1)
    By hurleyfor3 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 105
    Last Post: 03-25-2012, 03:47 PM
  2. MBB: South Regional Discussion (Duke #1 seed)
    By TNDukeFan in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 467
    Last Post: 03-30-2010, 06:16 PM
  3. MBB: East Regional Discussion (Duke's region)
    By Troublemaker in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 203
    Last Post: 03-28-2009, 10:08 PM
  4. March Madness conversation: SOUTH Region
    By JasonEvans in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 32
    Last Post: 03-23-2008, 04:55 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •