MBB: FSU 62, Duke 59 ACCT Post Game Thread

[slower]

Also lacking a true PG is a big issue.

Okay, this is a pet peeve of mine. Why do people NOT consider Quinn to be a "true PG"? Please explain.

[SCMatt33]

At this point, there's not much to say about this game specifically. At this point, it's all about the big picture. In two games here, Duke chose to go defense over offense without Kelly. In some ways that really seemed to help the defense, but it's hard to tell for sure given that FSU and Va Tech aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. Duke held their own on the glass for both games, and didn't allow great shooting nights from either one, but they only marginally increased their turnover output from what they had been forcing for most of the year. The other thing is that both games were low possession games so the efficiency increase isn't as great as it might seem (In the FSU game, they still gave up about a point per possession). Against a quality offensive team, I'm not sure that this defensive strategy works as well.

The offense was a complete mess in both games. Without Kelly, Duke can't use its spacing to stretch the D. The Plumlees will come out and set screens, but end up with the ball in their hands more than 15 ft from the basket way too much. There is very little that either one will give you from that range, either dribbling, or shooting. Without the spacing, you have to rely on screens and dribbling to get open, but the book is out on Duke's two favorite plays for that, a down screen on the wing, and a hand off up high. Those two plays were shut down completely. Even on simple passes around the perimeter, only Thornton would end up open, which is exactly the way other teams wanted it. Out of 17 3's in two games, about 14 or 15 were wide open (the others were end of shot clock scenarios), but he shot under 25% overall. There's no incentive for the other team to stay honest with those numbers on wide open shots. When you're covered that tightly, you think of two ways to beat it, passing and dribbling, but Duke isn't great at either of those. Duke is 287th in the country at A/FGM, and that rate has actually been worse than average recently. Without the spacing or shooting threats, teams can pack it in, which takes away cutting to the hoop and finesse driving. Whether it's at this level or the next level, the biggest thing Rivers needs to do is add muscle to drive with power. When he get near the rim, his drives usually end with a reverse layup, an underhanded shot, or a floater. His floater isn't at the level of a guy like Nolan Smith, so defenses let him have it. On the other shots, he has a very low release point, which makes it easy to block, or at least alter without fouling, and turns it into a lower percentage shot. Duke gets plently of shots from 8 feet and in, but they are always the lowest percentage shots possible. Even after all of that, everything is still one-on-one for this team against their opponents offense. I still find it baffling that for a team who only has one guy who's great at getting his own shot that they have such a low assist rate. This team has saved themselves all year with spacing, but with Thornton in the game and no Kelly, there are only going to be two three point threats that other teams are afraid of, and Duke's offense will stuggle big time in that scenario.

What I think Duke needs to do to help alleviate this is push the pace. If they're half court offense is struggling as much as it is, the best way to curtail that is to not let the defense get set. That's a lot easier said than done, especially with the sloppy play we've seen, but I think it's the best shot they have against a big team to score points. Against a small team, many of these problems go away, because the Plumlees have proven themselves to be able to dominate small teams, but Duke will struggle with big teams. The good news as long as Duke's one seed is not a big ten team (there aren't even any currently projected big ten one seeds), they have a 50/50 shot of drawing Michigan as their 3 seed, since the first three teams from a conference have to be in separate regions. Out of the projected three seeds, the only team that is really a bad matchup for Duke is Baylor. Michigan and Marqutte are small and both would be great matchups, and Georgetown has less size than Georgetown normally has. The seven through ten seeds are much more fluid, and there are definitely some bad matchups in the group. With or without Kelly, I think that matchups will play a bigger part in Duke's fate than it has in the past. That doesn't mean they can't beat a bad matchup or lose to a good one, but I'd say that it is less likely than in other years.

[mgtr]

On the bright side, we have three top 50 players from our bench this season(Murphy, Plum 3, and Gbinije) that will be in the regular rotation next season. They all have height (6'6 & up) which will help our team immensely in the rebounding department. Suliamon adds another element to this team that we lack (outside of Austin) so much... the ability to penetrate and dish/and or score. I honestly think next years team will be much better, but we will definitely have some hurt feelings. There is a lot of guard depth on this team (this year and next) that in my opinion isn't starting quality. Some people will definitely have to suck their pride up or bust their butts in the offseason to improve.

Also, I see no way that Mason Plumlee will leave after this season. Unless he needs the money (which I doubt), I see no way he plays any minutes in the NBA. He's got so much potential but he needs to put it together. I certainly hope he improves the most over the offseason.

This is on the money. With our redshirts, plus one or possibly more recruits, we will be fine. Very unlikely that Mason will leave, uncertain about Austin. So, we lose Miles, maybe Austin, but we gain a lot. Better next year. I know that Duke is for superstars (well, some fans think so), but we have had a pretty successful year so far (by any but Duke standards). We will not be playing in the NIT, and will have a very good seed in the big tournament. Whats to hate?

[arnie]

Okay, this is a pet peeve of mine. Why do people NOT consider Quinn to be a "true PG"? Please explain.

I totally agree with you re: Quinn and think he will emerge next year. Thornton's a great role player, but no team can afford to play a point guard that gets "0" assists and has limited shooting ability. Quinn showed flashes today and should really improve next year.

[sporthenry]

Okay, but how are they not a "true" Duke team? They are all wearing Duke uniforms, they are all playing for Duke, they are all coached by the Duke coaches, they were all (except for Todd Z.) recruited by the Duke coaches. I have to think that, individually and as a group, they want to play well and want to win, even if they don't always do so.

Granted they are probably not a "typical" Duke team. And your characterization of them --"flashes of a good team but can't put it together"--seems plausible. But I think saying they are not a true Duke team suggests, somehow, that they aren't worthy of us. I don't think it is fair for us, as fans, to feel that entitled.

[I realize I am interpreting your post rather than responding to your direct words, and if I am reading way too much into it, my apologies in advance.]

This team has struggled more than any I can remember with many of those things we consider fundamental to Duke style basketball.

That has left me incredibly frustrated. It isn't about the wins and losses... it is about watching a team which, in some ways, seems to have so much potential but then seeing it struggle so mightily with consistency and strength and defense and focus and heart.

I cannot help but picture a first weekend knockout, as we are certainly not playing very good basketball, relatively, to close the year. It is amazing that we looked so much better at the very start of this season, and outside of Austin and Miles (and Josh, to be fair) our players have apparently regressed here at the end of the year or not played at all.

Very frustrating.

I think that sums up what many of us are feeling. It is a frustrating team b/c of the potential. And yes, we are spoiled fans to some degree to have that typical Duke standard to live up to. And perhaps we take that for granted a lot but I think thats also one of the reasons we love Duke. This team does have heart at least towards the end of games but I think many of us loved that we played smart and efficient and played tough on D which you can't always say here. I think K has had similar feelings as he almost seemed resigned with some of his comments about this team and is simplifying things on both sides of the ball. Heck, our execution out of timeouts seems to be at an all time low.

[Fuqua's Finest]

Okay, this is a pet peeve of mine. Why do people NOT consider Quinn to be a "true PG"? Please explain.

Fair enough question. Quinn is a freshman so I give him a pass. But from watching him play in his up and down minutes, name one thing Quinn does really well? This is not to bash the kid because I said the same about a freshman Nolan Smith. We all know how that story ended. But when Quinn is running the show, he rarely penetrates (which may be by design), he shot is very inconsistent, and he's not very strong right now with his passes. He has shown flashes of it, but he's young. He's a freshman so he'll improve (I hope!) considerably over the next 2 seasons.

So to answer your question directly...Is he a true PG in my eyes right now? No. Can he become one? I don't know.

[sporthenry]

Fair enough question. Quinn is a freshman so I give him a pass. But from watching him play in his up and down minutes, name one thing Quinn does really well? This is not to bash the kid because I said the same about a freshman Nolan Smith. We all know how that story ended. But when Quinn is running the show, he rarely penetrates (which may be by design), he shot is very inconsistent, and he's not very strong right now with his passes. He has shown flashes of it, but he's young. He's a freshman so he'll improve (I hope!) considerably over the next 2 seasons.

So to answer your question directly...Is he a true PG in my eyes right now? No. Can he become one? I don't know.

He may not be a true PG but he is the closest thing. His rare penetration still would have been better than the complete lack of penetration today and I seem to feel we have another PG with a very inconsistent shot. Yes, TT brings defense but offensively, its hard to argue that things didn't open up with Cook in the game.

[slower]

I totally agree with you re: Quinn and think he will emerge next year. Thornton's a great role player, but no team can afford to play a point guard that gets "0" assists and has limited shooting ability. Quinn showed flashes today and should really improve next year.

Agree that Quinn IS a true PG, but I think Tyler does have a legit claim to PT. He's a gamer, man, no matter what his limitations are. You can NEVER criticize his effort. I think he's the logical choice to be a captain next year. If Austin comes back, I'd make him a captain as well. Quinn also has the stuff to be a captain.

But, yeah, it's gonna be a total logjam at guard next year. Obviously, Austin is a lock for starter minutes if he returns. Beyond that, I don't know. It has been glaringly obvious the past few years that what we need are ATHLETES to get past the teams that seem to plague us every year (FSU, LSU, Villanova, etc.). I hope Rasheed is the real deal. Honestly, I don't see Silent G as the answer at SF - but I hope to be proved wrong!

[wsb3]

Okay, this is a pet peeve of mine. Why do people NOT consider Quinn to be a "true PG"? Please explain.

I was wondering this also. I love Tyler but I have never seen him as someone to take us deep into the tourney. Doesn't the ball just seem to move better when Quin is at the point?

K obviously knows more than I do. I guess it is all about defense.

[Delaware]

I'll keep it simple,

This team is not very good right now. I'm not sure I can think of a recent Duke team that reminds me of this one, but we're really struggling on offense. We never pass the ball on the roll. Granted the Plumlee's fumble the ball at times, but we will not make it far in the tourney with Ty Thornton being an integral part of our offense. I could go on and ramble, but its obvious. If we're not hitting the 3 at a 40% clip, we have nothing offensively. I think what bothers me the most is we won't even try to feed it to the post. Miles had a little streak in the 2nd half, but nope, we will not keep feeding him.

I am hopeful that K will motivate these guys to play better coming up, but schematically, there's nothing much we can change after 33 games. I'm not even mad. I am more shocked at how we seem to be getting worse as the season continues. Anyone got any ideas how we can get better really fast, or is our ceiling simply the Sweet 16?

Schematically... yes, we need a change. But can it be done in less than a week?

It seems teams have figured out quite well our double high post at the elbow bigs handing off to Seth or Austin and our inability to then roll off of that for opportunities for our bigs. Our guards don't pass it well enough after the screens/handoffs. FSU played it perfectly today. This offsensive set basically takes our bigs away from the basket and are thus not offensive rebounding threats either. Can we either run and gun with Quinn or go with a double low post cross screening offense to get more touches inside?

Our defensive is getting a bit better, but I think it might be a mirage as at tourney time everyone slows down and tightens up their offense. I hope I'm wrong on that point. With our undersized guards, we might be better served to full court or half court trap/press and try to turn teams over and not have to always play half court defense. We have enough guards to play that style, but again is that to radical a change?

Right now the team is in a funk. And it may be too late to change the identity of either our offense or defense.

We do have some nice pieces, but have a very small margin for error.

I still am hopful for an elite 8 run.

[slower]

Fair enough question. Quinn is a freshman so I give him a pass. But from watching him play in his up and down minutes, name one thing Quinn does really well? This is not to bash the kid because I said the same about a freshman Nolan Smith. We all know how that story ended. But when Quinn is running the show, he rarely penetrates (which may be by design), he shot is very inconsistent, and he's not very strong right now with his passes. He has shown flashes of it, but he's young. He's a freshman so he'll improve (I hope!) considerably over the next 2 seasons.

So to answer your question directly...Is he a true PG in my eyes right now? No. Can he become one? I don't know.

Really? I have NEVER seen Quinn described as anything BUT a PG. Not a combo guard. Not a 2 guard. I just don't see where people get the idea that he's NOT a true PG. Perhaps it's a matter of execution, but I don't think there's any question that he is, stylistically, a true PG.

[Fuqua's Finest]

He may not be a true PG but he is the closest thing. His rare penetration still would have been better than the complete lack of penetration today and I seem to feel we have another PG with a very inconsistent shot. Yes, TT brings defense but offensively, its hard to argue that things didn't open up with Cook in the game.

I agree 1000%. The threat of having two penetrating guards in at one time opens up the offense so much more. Right now, the recipe for beating Duke is: bottle up Austin, guard the 3 point shot, and crash the boards. Guess what you'll have? A struggling Duke team.

[sporthenry]

I was wondering this also. I love Tyler but I have never seen him as someone to take us deep into the tourney. Doesn't the ball just seem to move better when Quin is at the point?

K obviously knows more than I do. I guess it is all about defense.

Yeah, but I just don't understand why its one or the other with 40 minutes up for grabs. Yes, Curry might get some PT at the 1 but I see no reason why they can't go offense for defense as TT ended up taking arguably the biggest shot of the game for Duke and Dickie V even said he was the 5th option. Well if he is on the bench, we have hopefully a better 5th option out there. Cook pretty much jump started the run to put us back in it and I don't think played again.

[Fuqua's Finest]

Really? I have NEVER seen Quinn described as anything BUT a PG. Not a combo guard. Not a 2 guard. I just don't see where people get the idea that he's NOT a true PG. Perhaps it's a matter of execution, but I don't think there's any question that he is, stylistically, a true PG.

Let me rephrase this. Quinn can only be a "true PG" due to his God given size. So my apologies for the "true PG" confusion. I guess the point I'm trying to make is at this point I cannot see Quinn as a game-changer for Duke at the PG spot. That could change with time as he gets stronger and more mature as a player. He's a freshman and Kyrie's aren't bred everyday. I'm sure its just me being a spoiled Duke fan or even having a Kyrie-hangover. But when I see Quinn play (in limited minutes of course), I don't see game-changer at the PG spot. He seems to fit the Sean Dock, Ty Thornton mold to me. Feedback?

[slower]

Let me rephrase this. Quinn can only be a "true PG" due to his God given size. So my apologies for the "true PG" confusion. I guess the point I'm trying to make is at this point I cannot see Quinn as a game-changer for Duke at the PG spot. That could change with time as he gets stronger and more mature as a player. He's a freshman and Kyrie's aren't bred everyday. I'm sure its just me being a spoiled Duke fan or even having a Kyrie-hangover. But when I see Quinn play (in limited minutes of course), I don't see game-changer at the PG spot. He seems to fit the Sean Dock, Ty Thornton mold to me. Feedback?

Okay, so he's not yet a game-changer. That doesn't exclude him from being a true PG, does it? I feel that Quinn performs the duties of a "true" PG much better than Tyler, Seth or Austin. The ball seems to move better when he's in there.

[Fuqua's Finest]

Okay, so he's not yet a game-changer. That doesn't exclude him from being a true PG, does it? I feel that Quinn performs the duties of a "true" PG much better than Tyler, Seth or Austin. The ball seems to move better when he's in there.

No sir it does not. You are correct.

[sporthenry]

Let me rephrase this. Quinn can only be a "true PG" due to his God given size. So my apologies for the "true PG" confusion. I guess the point I'm trying to make is at this point I cannot see Quinn as a game-changer for Duke at the PG spot. That could change with time as he gets stronger and more mature as a player. He's a freshman and Kyrie's aren't bred everyday. I'm sure its just me being a spoiled Duke fan or even having a Kyrie-hangover. But when I see Quinn play (in limited minutes of course), I don't see game-changer at the PG spot. He seems to fit the Sean Dock, Ty Thornton mold to me. Feedback?

I think Cook shows flashes of his ability. I think he finished 2nd in the McD AA 3 point contest (which isn't the best indication) but I think his shot will get better and he also led team USA with 7.4 APG and scored a serviceable 7.5 ppg playing with the top players in the country. I see Cook more as a Duhon who will be able to score and actually sets up the offense although even Duhon's defense was great. But Cooks A/TO ration is staggeringly high for a freshman and just makes you wonder what he could do. Personally, I don't see anything wrong with his passes and he is good at penetration from what I see just gets a bit out of control and his defense obviously isn't up to TT. But I think Cook will be a true PG in the sense that he will look to make things happen for other people, get some steals and easy baskets, but can find his own shot when he needs to.

[MartyClark]

To be fair to Andre here, he was well covered almost all of the time he was on the floor today. One of the problems with Ryan Kelly being out is that it makes it easier for defenses to cover the other shooters, and we had to play good defensive teams yesterday and today. (Today, in fact, I think it would be fair to say we played an excellent defensive team.)[/QUOTE]

Your're right, Andre was well covered. I expect more out of him though. Remember how well covered J.J. was most games? Remember how hard he ran and fought to get open? I don't see any of that from Andre. There are lots of guys, playing for lesser programs, who can hit an open three. Getting open when you are well guarded by a good opponent is a different deal. Andre lately has seemed unwilling or unable to accomplish this.

[sporthenry]

Your're right, Andre was well covered. I expect more out of him though. Remember how well covered J.J. was most games? Remember how hard he ran and fought to get open? I don't see any of that from Andre. There are lots of guys, playing for lesser programs, who can hit an open three. Getting open when you are well guarded by a good opponent is a different deal. Andre lately has seemed unwilling or unable to accomplish this.

JJ also had the offensive sets run through him whereas I don't see Dre getting down screened from both sides with options to go out to either as JJ had. JJ did work very hard on conditioning and reading the game so not to say Dre is innocent but we don't run our offense through him for better or worse. One thing that frustrated me with him is that his handle isn't terrible. Yes, it doesn't appear he worked on it that much but I forget what game it was but Len Elmore was saying how well Dre could shoot off the dribble (which many disagreed and rightly so) but he did have several mid-range shots off the dribble a la Snaer today. Imagine if he just goes two dribbles to the baseline or the elbow after someone closes out on him he should get a wide open shot.

[MartyClark]

I totally agree with you re: Quinn and think he will emerge next year. Thornton's a great role player, but no team can afford to play a point guard that gets "0" assists and has limited shooting ability. Quinn showed flashes today and should really improve next year.

I have also had this thought. I think Quinn has a big upside. If he can get rid of any lingering knee issues and really work in the offseason, I think he will be markedly better next year.