Page 2 of 10 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 182
  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    so locations:

    SU has boston, UK has st louis. THat's locked (effectively)

    If the status quo above remains, kansas goes to atlanta, UNC goes to pheonix, MSU goes to st louis, and we go to atlanta
    I don't think those are locks at all.

    Syracuse has Boston, assuming they don't have an early flameout in the Big East. That I agree with.

    But I don't think it's unlikely at all that UK plays in Atlanta. Lexington is equidistant from Atlanta and St. Louis. Especially if Kansas is the #3, UK could go to Atlanta, Kansas to St. Louis and Duke/UNC or whoever else to Phoenix.

    If it's UNC as the other #1, it'll be interesting to see who is the third #1 and who is the fourth, between UNC and Kansas. If it's UNC, they could get Atlanta, UK to St. Louis, and Kansas to Phoenix, rather than the scenario I laid out above.

    If it is UK in Atlanta and UNC in Phoenix, and we're #5 or 6, as I'd say is probable, then I'd say it's likely we'd go to Atlanta as the #2 opposite UK, for geographic reasons. This is not something I would like to see. Obviously.

    This is just one of many reasons why I think it's REALLY, REALLY important for us to win the ACC and snag that #1 seed. Not just so we avoid Kentucky. But also, as a #1, even if we're behind Kansas, and therefore the fourth #1 and we get sent to Phoenix, it seems not unlikely that our #2 could be a team like Missouri or whoever else is #8. I'd venture to guess that Ohio State and Michigan State are in the 6-7 mix right now, so one could go to St. Louis and the other to Boston (with UNC as the #5 staying close to home in Atlanta). Now Missouri is a fine team and certainly dangerous, but I'd take my chances in a regional with them over any of the other teams mentioned in this post.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I'
    So, based on these three scenarios, I would prefer Duke to be a #2 in the East.
    I've heard this a few times, and I've gotta strongly disagree. Despite our stellar and hard-earned record, our team isn't good enough defensively to be looking ahead to what the potential Elite 8 match-up is and be worrying about that. We need every advantage we can get - facing a 16 seed instead of a 15, a 7 instead of an 8, etc. A 1 seed would be enormously helpful.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I've heard this a few times, and I've gotta strongly disagree. Despite our stellar and hard-earned record, our team isn't good enough defensively to be looking ahead to what the potential Elite 8 match-up is and be worrying about that. We need every advantage we can get - facing a 16 seed instead of a 15, a 7 instead of an 8, etc. A 1 seed would be enormously helpful.
    I agree, but isn't it fun to analyze and look ahead as fans? Plus, it's not as if it's clear that being a 2 seed in the East is harder than being a 2 seed in the South (using that simply for illustrative purposes) for the second round matchup. Way too many variables to make those predictions, so it's easier as fans to make the 1/2 seed probability/difficulty determinations. Teams in the 7-10 range are certainly NOT gimme games. Right now, Lundardi has New Mexico/West Virginia as our 7/10 as the #2 seed in the East. Neither of those teams would be an easy win at all. New Mexico may be the best team in the western U.S. right now. They have been very impressive. That matchup would not even be close to a walkover, and we could certainly lose (as could other 2 seeds in their second round so it's not only us that have glaring weaknesses). Other 7/10s? UConn is showing as a 10. I wouldn't want to seem them. Despite their struggles, they have a lot of talent and could beat quality teams on a given night. San Diego St and Creighton. Creighton has looked pretty good. Crazy things happen in the tournament and the expected Elite 8 matchup often doesn't even come to fruition, so it is a bit silly to look ahead, but as fans, we can't help it. Just need Coach K to keep the team focused on the immediate games, which I'm sure he has experience doing. He always says he likes to think of it as a four-team tournament each weekend. If you win your tournament you advance to the next one with your opponent TBD.
    Last edited by Bluedog; 03-05-2012 at 11:29 AM.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    I think Wander is rejecting the notion that it's better to be a #2 in the East than a #1 in a different region, to which I would agree. It's not an exact science, sometimes a lower-seeded opponent happens to be a tougher matchup for you, but overall the higher your seed the easier your opponent will be. And I think the strength of your opponent is far more important that where you play. A 7/10 winner in the second round just "feels" like a much harder game than an 8/9 winner.

    Because of the pod system, we'll be playing in Greensboro the first weekend no matter what. Also, as we've seen, sometimes playing in an eastern venue winds up being a disadvantage due to all the UNC fans. So I'll take a #1 in, say, the west over a #2 in the east in a heartbeat.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Mizzou, post-Quin
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Now Missouri is a fine team and certainly dangerous, but I'd take my chances in a regional with them over any of the other teams mentioned in this post.
    Be careful what you wish for... I think that Mizzou would "Lawson" Duke's defense. Now, they're a team (even moreso than Duke, imo) that will lose early if the outside shooting is cold, but they have more consistent weapons and if they are hitting, they are Final Four good. As a Carolina fan, the two teams I don't want to see until April are Mizzou and Kentucky.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by shoutingncu View Post
    Be careful what you wish for... I think that Mizzou would "Lawson" Duke's defense. Now, they're a team (even moreso than Duke, imo) that will lose early if the outside shooting is cold, but they have more consistent weapons and if they are hitting, they are Final Four good. As a Carolina fan, the two teams I don't want to see until April are Mizzou and Kentucky.
    I dunno. Mizzou is playing Duke basketball this year, and at a high level. Threes, penetration, dumps to an efficient finisher. Mizzou's guards are a little quicker, but Mizzou's inside, with English, Ratliffe and Moore are undersized even compared to a Duke team that's worried about its length (albeit mostly on the perimeter). It would be interesting to see if Mizzou could out-Duke Duke.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    7 of the The #1 and #2 seeds are set. Done. End of story. They will be

    1. Kentucky (in Atlanta)
    1. Syracuse (in Boston)
    1. Kansas (in St. Louis)

    ?. UNC (if they win the ACC tournament, they are the fourth #1 in Phoenix
    ? Duke (ditto)
    ? Michigan State (could get the last #1 seed if they win the Big Ten tournament, and neither UNC or Duke win the ACC tournament)
    ? Ohio State (could get the last #1 seed if they win the Big Ten tournament, and neither UNC or Duke or win their tournaments)

    My strong feeling is that the following will happen

    East: 1. Syracuse 2. UNC or Duke
    South: 1. Kentucky 2. Last # 2 seed (Missouri, Baylor or Georgetown)
    MidWest 1. Kansas 2. Michigan State
    West. 1. UNC / Duke 2. Ohio State

    The worst scenario for us is that somehow one of those top 7 loses early, and we end up with them as our #3 seed. It would be awful to have to play a Michigan State or Ohio State, just to get to Syracuse.

  8. #28

    Gladly take #2 East

    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    7 of the The #1 and #2 seeds are set. Done. End of story. They will be

    1. Kentucky (in Atlanta)
    1. Syracuse (in Boston)
    1. Kansas (in St. Louis)

    ?. UNC (if they win the ACC tournament, they are the fourth #1 in Phoenix
    ? Duke (ditto)
    ? Michigan State (could get the last #1 seed if they win the Big Ten tournament, and neither UNC or Duke win the ACC tournament)
    ? Ohio State (could get the last #1 seed if they win the Big Ten tournament, and neither UNC or Duke or win their tournaments)

    My strong feeling is that the following will happen

    East: 1. Syracuse 2. UNC or Duke
    South: 1. Kentucky 2. Last # 2 seed (Missouri, Baylor or Georgetown)
    MidWest 1. Kansas 2. Michigan State
    West. 1. UNC / Duke 2. Ohio State

    The worst scenario for us is that somehow one of those top 7 loses early, and we end up with them as our #3 seed. It would be awful to have to play a Michigan State or Ohio State, just to get to Syracuse.
    I agree with you on pretty much everything you say above, except I'm not so sure that an MSU or OSU loss say in the first game of their tournament (highly unlikely) would drop them one more notch. Looking at Lunardi's bracketology from today, I'd definitely take #2 in the East over #1 in the West.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    7 of the The #1 and #2 seeds are set. Done. End of story.
    Really? If Kansas loses in the 1st round of the Big 12 tournament, they can't slip to #2? If Ohio State or Michigan State (especially combined with the injury to their starting SF) lose in the first round of their tournament, they can't slip to #3? I'm not so sure.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    7 of the The #1 and #2 seeds are set. Done. End of story. They will be

    1. Kentucky (in Atlanta)
    1. Syracuse (in Boston)
    1. Kansas (in St. Louis)

    ?. UNC (if they win the ACC tournament, they are the fourth #1 in Phoenix
    ? Duke (ditto)
    ? Michigan State (could get the last #1 seed if they win the Big Ten tournament, and neither UNC or Duke win the ACC tournament)
    ? Ohio State (could get the last #1 seed if they win the Big Ten tournament, and neither UNC or Duke or win their tournaments)

    My strong feeling is that the following will happen

    East: 1. Syracuse 2. UNC or Duke
    South: 1. Kentucky 2. Last # 2 seed (Missouri, Baylor or Georgetown)
    MidWest 1. Kansas 2. Michigan State
    West. 1. UNC / Duke 2. Ohio State

    The worst scenario for us is that somehow one of those top 7 loses early, and we end up with them as our #3 seed. It would be awful to have to play a Michigan State or Ohio State, just to get to Syracuse.
    I guess I agree with kedsy that KU isn't locked into a 1 seed at this point. Other items of note: (1) UK may technically be closer to St. Louis than Atlanta (by a matter of 40-ish miles), so while I expect UK might prefer Atlanta, I'm not sure how the committee will treat the geography of the 1 seeds; and (2) Baylor has no shot of getting a 2 seed at this point.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Really? If Kansas loses in the 1st round of the Big 12 tournament, they can't slip to #2? If Ohio State or Michigan State (especially combined with the injury to their starting SF) lose in the first round of their tournament, they can't slip to #3? I'm not so sure.
    And what about Marquette? Why couldn't they get a 2 seed if they won the Big East Tournament? If Duke loses to Clemson/Va Tech and Marquette or Georgetown run the Big East table, is it a sure thing Duke couldn't end up with a #3?
    Last edited by Monmouth77; 03-05-2012 at 04:14 PM. Reason: typo

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by shoutingncu View Post
    Be careful what you wish for... I think that Mizzou would "Lawson" Duke's defense. Now, they're a team (even moreso than Duke, imo) that will lose early if the outside shooting is cold, but they have more consistent weapons and if they are hitting, they are Final Four good. As a Carolina fan, the two teams I don't want to see until April are Mizzou and Kentucky.
    No one wants to see UK, just as no one expects the Spanish Inquisition.

    But Mizzou? They might "Lawson" Duke's defense, but not UNC's. Their quick jumpers might well crash the boards against our oft-inattentive perimeter, but they can crash all they want, they still won't get many O-boards on McAdoo, Zeller, and Henson. I don't know, maybe they can just outscore the Heels, 95-94. But I doubt it. Might pray for it, but doubt it.

    So, I hope - of course I do - that UNC doesn't get Mizzou. I prefer UNC lose to Md, somehow slip to a 2-seed, and get the Spanish Inquisition at the top of its region. Although Heels v. Spanish Inquisition would be an exciting NC game, I prefer they play in Elite Eight.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    No one wants to see UK, just as no one expects the Spanish Inquisition.

    So, I hope - of course I do - that UNC doesn't get Mizzou. I prefer UNC lose to Md, somehow slip to a 2-seed, and get the Spanish Inquisition at the top of its region. Although Heels v. Spanish Inquisition would be an exciting NC game, I prefer they play in Elite Eight.
    I know the committee looks at game results for the most part, but there is a gut/eye test that happens too and UNC sails through that test with flying colors. That is the test that had them rated #1 in the land in the pre-season and, despite a season with some inexplicable results for the Heels, I am betting the committee will not take the two teams with far and away the most NBA talent and put them in a bracket with each other.

    So, even if Carolina slips to a #2 seed, I really don't see them being paired up with Kentiqusition.

    -Jason "I would love to see it though.. as you would hear wails of complaints quite loud from both Chapel Hill and Lexington... music to my ears!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Shaker Heights, OH

    UNC and UK in the same regional

    I just wouldn't want to see it because it (more or less) guarantees that one of them will be in the FF. Blecch.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by barjwr View Post
    I just wouldn't want to see it because it (more or less) guarantees that one of them will be in the FF. Blecch.
    But it more assuredly guarantees that only one of them could possibly make the FF. I'd take that for sure! But I don't see it happening.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, even if Carolina slips to a #2 seed, I really don't see them being paired up with Kentiqusition.
    Depends on how seriously the committee takes the "guideline" of seeding the #2's as close to home as possible, so long as they're not paired up with another team from their own conference. Chapel Hill is obviously a lot closer to Atlanta than it is to Boston -- over 300 miles closer. If Kansas goes to St. Louis, which is one of the two most likely scenarios that I see, and Duke beats UNC and therefore goes to Phoenix as a #1, then if the committee follows its guideline, UNC should go to Atlanta and be matched up with Kentucky.

    Of course, both Columbus and East Lansing are a lot closer to St. Louis than Chapel Hill is to St. Louis, and all three are pretty close to the same distance from Boston. So it would make sense for OSU and MSU as #2 seeds to go to St. Louis and Boston, again with UNC in Atlanta.

    This all changes if any of a huge number of variables changes, including Kansas not going to St. Louis as the #1, and instead Kentucky going there, which could happen if Kansas falters in the Big 12 and Duke/UNC win the ACC and are rewarded with Atlanta as its #1.

  17. #37
    http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...kets-air-trutv

    Figured I'd put this here. I'm very excited to see the S-curve from the committee. Even Doug Gottlieb says we should be a #1 on paper which the committee usually uses as opposed to the eye test. So we should be fairly high on the S-curve and I think releasing the S-curve will force the committee to justify its location of the various 1-4 seeds for a more proportionate bracket. I know they said the balance out the brackets but I think releasing the S-curve will prevent situations like hopefully Duke in UK's bracket or WVU in UK's bracket in 2010.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by sporthenry View Post
    http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...kets-air-trutv

    Figured I'd put this here. I'm very excited to see the S-curve from the committee. Even Doug Gottlieb says we should be a #1 on paper which the committee usually uses as opposed to the eye test. So we should be fairly high on the S-curve and I think releasing the S-curve will force the committee to justify its location of the various 1-4 seeds for a more proportionate bracket. I know they said the balance out the brackets but I think releasing the S-curve will prevent situations like hopefully Duke in UK's bracket or WVU in UK's bracket in 2010.
    They generally justify their selections regardless. People may not like their reasons, but they exist. They gave a reason why VCU was in the field for example. It was they had a good rpi, but they gave the reason. They give reasons for seeding...like why florida was a 2 seed last year and UK was not...

    It will not change the way they actually do the bracketing. If they feel like they want to put a 2 seed closer geographically but with a better 1 seed then they would have faced otherwise, they will still do so. As someone pointed out, there are rules, and there are guidlines. The committee changes from year to year, and they can interpret the guidlines differently (or choose to bend them more from year to year).

    Releasing the S-curve is more to give people things to talk about...to provide even more transparency in the process. In the end, after the first could seed lines, the S curve is largely meaningless. Teams are allowed to move a seedline in either directino (and likely often do) in order to satisfy other rules (where they can play, when they can play, against whom they can play) In the end we get what they happened to make work.

    It will be interesting to see how they match the top 4 seeds though. I just don't think they will build the bracket any differently knowing that the s-curve is public. It will simply give conspiracy theorists something to complain about when their 8 seed team was pushed back to a 9 seed to avoid playing someone from their own conference....
    1200. DDMF.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    Lunardi currently has us as a #2 seed potentially facing resurgent UConn in the 2nd round....yuck.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA
    I gotta agree with Jason again. No doubt that KY and Syr are the top-2 (and will probably get 90% of the "champion" votes in my annual NCAA pool...). After that I go KA, NC@ch, Duke and MSU (hard to put them ahead of Duke after we beat them straight-up, and they lost TWO last-week games vs our one loss). Also, if we beat out UNC in the ACCT, it would be very difficult to seed them ahead of us given Duke's higher RPI, having won the series (2-1) this year, being ACC champs, etc. KA is the only one I can't see us catching IF they win their tournament.

    I spend time every year about now deciding who I am rooting against in the various tournaments, in order to help Duke's seeding. Clearly we as Duke fans want to be rooting against NC (no problem there on many levels... ), KA, MSU, MO and Marquette. I also tend to keep a wary eye on teams close behind us lest they overtake Duke and cause us to fall to a #3 seed (however unlikely).

    So today I was disappointed to see KA win relatively easily over TA&M, and will be rooting loudly against MO (Vs OKSU), Marquette (vs Louisville) tonight. Also nice to see Georgetown lose. But Baylor beat KSU by 8.

    I just LOVE this time of year!

    -- BD- "Go Terps!" -BD

    Originally Posted by uh_no :
    after the top two, there are four teams vying. IF the season ended today, i would have them in the following order:

    3: kansas
    4: UNC
    5: MSU
    6: Duke

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Why do you have MSU ahead of Duke? What metric are you possibly using to arrive at that ranking?

    We beat them head-to-head.
    We have a better record against a tougher schedule.
    We have a higher RPI.
    We are ranked higher in the human polls.
    They have lost 2 in a row.

    I think we are #5 overall right now. Hard to see how we are much lower than that. I further think we still control our own destiny. A win in the ACC Finals should get us back onto the top line ahead of UNC.

    -Jason "barring a flame out in the ACC quarters, we are getting a #2 seed... at worst" Evans




    P.S. I think sporthenry makes a very good point - the NCAA Selection Committee is, for the first time, releasing (and discussing on TV at length) their 1-68 rankings and the S-curve. This as much as anything will hamper any shenanigans like dropping Duke to #8 overall in order to get them into KY's region. Odds are pretty good for us to be a 2-seed, but ultimately it shouldn't matter much whether we are a late-#1 selection or early-#2 pick. Either way, the Elite-8 matchup would be against one of KA or MSU (though the path there might be slightly easier as a #1)...
    Last edited by -bdbd; 03-08-2012 at 06:02 PM.

Similar Threads

  1. Duke Women Get 1-Seed in NCAA Soccer Tourney
    By SCMatt33 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 11-16-2011, 11:14 AM
  2. Best and Worst Case Scenarios
    By Black Mambo in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 03-19-2009, 07:47 AM
  3. Team Morale--scenarios
    By CameronBornAndBred in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 37
    Last Post: 10-01-2008, 04:44 PM
  4. NCAA Tourney Seed Predictions
    By DukeWarhead in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 03-08-2007, 11:46 PM
  5. What will our NCAA seed be?
    By hurleyfor3 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 02-27-2007, 10:44 PM

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •