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  1. #1

    NCAA Top Seed Scenarios

    I'm a long time reader, but I thought I would post a thread based on what I've been thinking about since yesterday.

    After the end of the regular season, it looks like the top four seeds are universally agreed upon: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, and UNC. After that, things get interesting. The #2 seeds are more in flux. With Michigan State losing to Ohio State this afternoon, I see the pecking order for #2's like this for now: Duke, Missouri, Ohio State, and Michigan State. Duke won't be in UNC's bracket, so they're likely slotted for the Midwest or maybe the Eastern regional. My hunch is the Midwest regional with Kansas as the #1.

    Scenario #1 for Duke: Duke wins the ACC Tournament
    If Duke does win the ACC Tourney, I assume the Blue Devils will be shipped out West as the #1. I believe Duke would have the #3 overall ranking in this scenario based on RPI, record against the top-25, and the head-to-head victory against Kansas. That being said, I would find it hard to believe the committee would ship KU out West and make Duke the Midwest regional #1. Either way, Duke will probably be matched up against the winner of the Big 10. This is not a good situation. As a Duke fan, I don't want them to go out West. If we are #1 in the Midwest, I don't want a B1G team as the #2. Either way, the road to the Final 4 will be rough.

    Scenario #2: Duke loses in the final round of the ACC Tournament
    Duke is pretty much locked into a #2 seed at this point, in my opinion. If we lose in the ACC Tourney final, our overall ranking will probably depend on how the Big 10 tourney pans out. If OSU and MSU both make it to the final (there's a 3-way tie atop the league standing with Michigan) somehow, those two teams will probably be given the top two #2 seeds with the winner in the Midwest against Kansas and the loser going out West to face UNC (assuming they win the ACC tourney). Duke and Missouri will be the other #2s. Unless Missouri wins the Big 12 tourney, they will probably be the fourth overall #2 (or Marquette if Missouri is upset before the Big 12 finals). That means Duke will be the matched against the second overall 1 seed, Syracuse in the East. Personally, I like our chances in Boston, if we can get there, against Syracuse. If we get hot from 3 (looking at you, Andre), we can shred that zone. Also, the Plumlees should do well on the offensive boards as the Orange are not good at defensive rebounding.

    Scenario #3: Duke loses in the quarters or semis of the ACC Tournament
    If this happens, Duke might drop to the fourth overall #2 seed (don't see Marquette or anyone else climbing ahead of them unless they win the conference tourney) and be matched against Kentucky in the South regional. I think Kentucky is beatable, but I certainly wouldn't want to face them before the Final Four if at all. Still, being in Atlanta as a #2 might be better than being #3 out West.

    So, based on these three scenarios, I would prefer Duke to be a #2 in the East. That being said, I REALLY want Duke to win the ACC Tournament. I just won't like our seeding in the NCAA's.

    What does everyone else think?

  2. #2
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    Feb 2007
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    Westport, CT
    I for one am hoping that we're the 2 seed in the East.

    Why?

    1. I can drive there.
    2. Sunday March 25th is my anniversary and I hope we don't get a Friday-Sunday site.
    3. We do well coming out of the East.
    4. If the 3s are going in then we can beat the 'Cuse zone.

    Well, here's to dreaming...


  3. #3
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    I'll paraphrase what i said in another thread:

    after the top two, there are four teams vying. IF the season ended today, i would have them in the following order:

    3: kansas
    4: UNC
    5: MSU
    6: Duke

    So, who gets the one seeds depends on what happens in the tournaments If kansas or UNC win, obviously they're locks. If MSU wins and either of kansas or UNC lose, MSU snags one. For duke to get the one seed, they need a bit of help. First, I think we need to win the tournament. Second, we need EITHER to have beaten UNC in the title game and one of MSU and Kansas lose, or BOTH MSU and kansas lose.

    in the first scenario (beating UNC in the title game), UNC gets bumped off the 1 line. In this scenario, if MSU and kansas both win, then they get the one seeds and Duke and UNC are both twos. If one of those two (msu/ku) loses, we get the other one seed. If we beat anyone else in the title game, I think UNC keeps the one seed with whoever of MSU and kansas won their league. Why you ask? because in the two games we would have played against carolina, we needed a furious comeback in one, and got shellacked in the other...so UNC stays ahead of us unless we beat them.

    in the second scenario (both MSU and kansas lose), since we had won the tournament, both UNC and us get the one seeds. Again, if only one of them lose, and we didn't beat UNC again, UNC gets the other spot

    so locations:

    SU has boston, UK has st louis. THat's locked (effectively)

    If the status quo above remains, kansas goes to atlanta, UNC goes to pheonix, MSU goes to st louis, and we go to atlanta

    In my first scenario above, where we beat UNC in the title game, if its kansas who is the other one to win their conference, I think they stay #3 overall, so we end up as the 1 seed in pheonix (MSU in STL, UNC in atlanta) If MSU is the other team to win, then I think we end up as the #3 overall and get atlanta, and MSU goes to pheonix. (kansas in STL, UNC in atlanta). If both KU and MSU were to win, we would likely be the 2 seed in atlanta and UNC would be in STL.

    In the second scenario above (where we beat someone else other than), I think kansas gets atlanta and we get pheonix. UNC goes to atl (as the 2) and MSU goes to stl.

    ANWAY...that said, we will be in atlanta in almost every scenario, here are the exceptions

    1) we are the number 4 overall with kansas as #3 overall, we go to pheonix
    2)we are 6 overall and carolina is 5 overall, we go to STL (MSU and KU both win, we beat someone other than carolina in the title game)
    3) carolina is #3 overall (means they have to win the tournament and kansas has to lose), we end up in STL (since two teams can't be in the same conference as the 1 and 2)
    usa

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by fisheyes View Post
    I for one am hoping that we're the 2 seed in the East.

    Why?

    1. I can drive there.
    2. Sunday March 25th is my anniversary and I hope we don't get a Friday-Sunday site.
    3. We do well coming out of the East.
    4. If the 3s are going in then we can beat the 'Cuse zone.

    Well, here's to dreaming...

    The chances of ending up there are slim. it is the third preferred site, so we'd have to be at best the #7 overall. I think it would take a horrid beating on friday to drop us that low. I think we win one game, and we're guaranteed 6 overall or better meaning, no boston
    usa

  5. #5
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    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I think Duke needs to be #2 in the Midwest for my personal benefit. Three metro stops from my condo.

    Course, my luck, we'd lose in the 2R and not make it to Saint Louis.

    I need to re-confirm when my mother-in-law will be here and how inebriated I can be during the Midwest Regional.

    Carry on.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    The chances of ending up there are slim. it is the third preferred site, so we'd have to be at best the #7 overall. I think it would take a horrid beating on friday to drop us that low. I think we win one game, and we're guaranteed 6 overall or better meaning, no boston
    Isn't Boston closer to Durham than St. Louis? Google maps has it at 700 vs. 800 miles, at least while driving. If so, it seems like we're more likely to end up in Boston than St. Louis. But I could be missing something. Maybe the driving routes to St. Louis aren't as direct, though, so perhaps by air St. Louis is technically closer. I'd agree that we're most likely to end up in Atlanta, although I'd think the committee would avoid that if UNC ends up being the third #1 seed there (i.e. Kansas and MSU both lose and UNC wins conference tourney).

    Edit: Just looked it up. Flight from Durham to Boston = 2 hours. Flight from Durham to St. Louis = 2 hrs 10 minutes. Basically even though...
    Last edited by Bluedog; 03-04-2012 at 11:01 PM.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Isn't Boston closer to Durham than St. Louis? Google maps has it at 700 vs. 800 miles, at least while driving. If so, it seems like we're more likely to end up in Boston than St. Louis. But I could be missing something. Maybe the driving routes to St. Louis aren't as direct, though, so perhaps by air St. Louis is technically closer. I'd agree that we're most likely to end up in Atlanta, although I'd think the committee would avoid that if UNC ends up being the third #1 seed there (i.e. Kansas and MSU both lose and UNC wins conference tourney).
    Is it? wow okay.....then we have little chance of ending up at st louis.....looked closer on the map....and i would venture that the straight line distance may even be closer....it all depends on the numbers that the committee gets....i don't know if they get straight line distance or not....

    anyway, if that is true, then anywhere i said we would be in st louis, we'd be in boston instead

    Edit: again, depends on the numbers the committee gets provided with....could be driving distance, driving time, straight line distance, flight time....who knows

    Edit Edit: the committee also uses RPI....so whatever distance metric they use is probably horrid....perhaps the number of toll booths you have to cross to get from the school to the location or something
    usa

  8. #8
    Forgive me if I am wrong, but doesn't the committee place the #2 seeds based on where they stack up against the #1 seeds? Like, if Duke is the #7 overall seed, they will be pitted against the #2 overall seed. If that's the case, then the committee won't send them to Boston because they are closer. They will go where to whichever location they slot into based on seeding.

    For the lower seeds, geography seems to play a bigger role in the selection committee's placement decisions.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I'll paraphrase what i said in another thread:

    after the top two, there are four teams vying. IF the season ended today, i would have them in the following order:

    3: kansas
    4: UNC
    5: MSU
    6: Duke

    So, who gets the one seeds depends on what happens in the tournaments If kansas or UNC win, obviously they're locks. If MSU wins and either of kansas or UNC lose, MSU snags one. For duke to get the one seed, they need a bit of help. First, I think we need to win the tournament. Second, we need EITHER to have beaten UNC in the title game and one of MSU and Kansas lose, or BOTH MSU and kansas lose.

    in the first scenario (beating UNC in the title game), UNC gets bumped off the 1 line. In this scenario, if MSU and kansas both win, then they get the one seeds and Duke and UNC are both twos. If one of those two (msu/ku) loses, we get the other one seed. If we beat anyone else in the title game, I think UNC keeps the one seed with whoever of MSU and kansas won their league. Why you ask? because in the two games we would have played against carolina, we needed a furious comeback in one, and got shellacked in the other...so UNC stays ahead of us unless we beat them.

    in the second scenario (both MSU and kansas lose), since we had won the tournament, both UNC and us get the one seeds. Again, if only one of them lose, and we didn't beat UNC again, UNC gets the other spot

    so locations:

    SU has boston, UK has st louis. THat's locked (effectively)

    If the status quo above remains, kansas goes to atlanta, UNC goes to pheonix, MSU goes to st louis, and we go to atlanta

    In my first scenario above, where we beat UNC in the title game, if its kansas who is the other one to win their conference, I think they stay #3 overall, so we end up as the 1 seed in pheonix (MSU in STL, UNC in atlanta) If MSU is the other team to win, then I think we end up as the #3 overall and get atlanta, and MSU goes to pheonix. (kansas in STL, UNC in atlanta). If both KU and MSU were to win, we would likely be the 2 seed in atlanta and UNC would be in STL.

    In the second scenario above (where we beat someone else other than), I think kansas gets atlanta and we get pheonix. UNC goes to atl (as the 2) and MSU goes to stl.

    ANWAY...that said, we will be in atlanta in almost every scenario, here are the exceptions

    1) we are the number 4 overall with kansas as #3 overall, we go to pheonix
    2)we are 6 overall and carolina is 5 overall, we go to STL (MSU and KU both win, we beat someone other than carolina in the title game)
    3) carolina is #3 overall (means they have to win the tournament and kansas has to lose), we end up in STL (since two teams can't be in the same conference as the 1 and 2)
    I think we cannot realistically be a No.1 seed unless Kansas or UNC lose in the first round of their tournaments. The committee doesn't put much emphasis on conference tournaments, and particularly our potential win vs. UNC being on Selection Sunday is unlikely to get us over the top at that late hour. And honestly, it shouldn't. We had our chance, and we blew it. UNC showed they are, at least at this point, a class above us. They traditionally don't much care about the ACC tournament, so a loss against us wouldn't mean much. Now, if Kansas were to lose early-ish in their tournament, than we could have a legitimate shot, given that MSU lost tonight to OSU at home.

  10. #10
    Join Date
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    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    after the top two, there are four teams vying. IF the season ended today, i would have them in the following order:

    3: kansas
    4: UNC
    5: MSU
    6: Duke
    Why do you have MSU ahead of Duke? What metric are you possibly using to arrive at that ranking?

    We beat them head-to-head.
    We have a better record against a tougher schedule.
    We have a higher RPI.
    We are ranked higher in the human polls.
    They have lost 2 in a row.

    I think we are #5 overall right now. Hard to see how we are much lower than that. I further think we still control our own destiny. A win in the ACC Finals should get us back onto the top line ahead of UNC.

    -Jason "barring a flame out in the ACC quarters, we are getting a #2 seed... at worst" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnpope View Post
    I think we cannot realistically be a No.1 seed unless Kansas or UNC lose in the first round of their tournaments. The committee doesn't put much emphasis on conference tournaments, and particularly our potential win vs. UNC being on Selection Sunday is unlikely to get us over the top at that late hour. And honestly, it shouldn't. We had our chance, and we blew it. UNC showed they are, at least at this point, a class above us. They traditionally don't much care about the ACC tournament, so a loss against us wouldn't mean much. Now, if Kansas were to lose early-ish in their tournament, than we could have a legitimate shot, given that MSU lost tonight to OSU at home.
    This is generally the case, but I think with the 4 teams being so closely matched, and the fact that we have wins over each of the other three, means that i think the conference tournaments may end up being a tiny part of what pushes one team ahead of another.
    usa

  12. #12
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    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by johnpope View Post
    I think we cannot realistically be a No.1 seed unless Kansas or UNC lose in the first round of their tournaments. The committee doesn't put much emphasis on conference tournaments, and particularly our potential win vs. UNC being on Selection Sunday is unlikely to get us over the top at that late hour. And honestly, it shouldn't. We had our chance, and we blew it. UNC showed they are, at least at this point, a class above us. They traditionally don't much care about the ACC tournament, so a loss against us wouldn't mean much. Now, if Kansas were to lose early-ish in their tournament, than we could have a legitimate shot, given that MSU lost tonight to OSU at home.
    The situation last year was very similar. Duke had won the first matchup with UNC with a 2nd half comeback. UNC won the 2nd meeting fairly easily (more easily this year). Duke won matchup #3 and got the #1 seed. I don't see why it would be any different this year. I think Duke's resume is actually better this year.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Forgive me if I am wrong, but doesn't the committee place the #2 seeds based on where they stack up against the #1 seeds? Like, if Duke is the #7 overall seed, they will be pitted against the #2 overall seed. If that's the case, then the committee won't send them to Boston because they are closer. They will go where to whichever location they slot into based on seeding.

    For the lower seeds, geography seems to play a bigger role in the selection committee's placement decisions.
    From what i've read (a lot of lunardi and his saying how the committee tends to do things) is that the top two seeds are generally strictly geography, and then the overall difficulty of the bracket is evened out using the 3 and 4 seeds.

    BUt its not a hard and fast rule, and as there is turnover in the committee, how things are done can certainly change
    usa

  14. #14
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    Not us.
    Between me and every ideal I always find Scheisskopfs, Peckems, Korns and Cathcarts. And that sort of changes the ideal. -- Joseph Heller

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Why do you have MSU ahead of Duke? What metric are you possibly using to arrive at that ranking?

    We beat them head-to-head.
    We have a better record against a tougher schedule.
    We have a higher RPI.
    We are ranked higher in the human polls.
    They have lost 2 in a row.

    I think we are #5 overall right now. Hard to see how we are much lower than that. I further think we still control our own destiny. A win in the ACC Finals should get us back onto the top line ahead of UNC.

    -Jason "barring a flame out in the ACC quarters, we are getting a #2 seed... at worst" Evans
    Just my opinion. We beat them in november.....and we also got blown out by OSU in the same timeframe. Yesterday we got blown out by UNC and today MSU took OSU to the final possesion. I am of the opinion that MSU has improved a lot more than we have since the time we played.

    We have one fewer loss than they do.

    They have played UNC, DUke, OSU twice, michigan twice, indiana twice, and wisconsin twice.....I would rather our schedule than ours, but even if ours is tougher, it can only be marginally so. Kenpom has us at 4 and them at 6. For all intents and purposes, those two schedules are equally difficult.

    I think the higher RPI argument is the strongest one, as the committee seems to blindly follow it. but has that been updated this week yet? the rankings haven't at least

    Further, MSU "won" their regular season championship (3 way tie) while duke did not, and in fact lost in in spectacular fasion on the last day of the season.

    That's just my opinion. that they would be 5 and we would be 6....i don't think that's necessarily a reflection of which team is actually better or would win...just a guess as to where the teams would stand from the committees viewpoint.
    usa

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by freshmanjs View Post
    The situation last year was very similar. Duke had won the first matchup with UNC with a 2nd half comeback. UNC won the 2nd meeting fairly easily (more easily this year). Duke won matchup #3 and got the #1 seed. I don't see why it would be any different this year. I think Duke's resume is actually better this year.
    Seemingly so, but I think the difference is in the much too quoted "eye test": this year UNC dominated both games against us and our win was viewed by many as a bit of a fluke. Plus, UNC played against us in Cameron like the best team in the country, not just the conference. The fact that they were seen as the no. 1 team pre-season and generally most talented team (like we were last year to some extent), and the fact that they played this year's overall no.1 seed, UK, at Kentucky,to the last shot, are two other possible arguments in their favor. Lastly, last year we had Kyrie coming back, which could have had an impact as well. As much as I'd love it to be otherwise, it's hard for me to objectively see us as a no.1 seed.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    If we beat anyone else in the title game, I think UNC keeps the one seed with whoever of MSU and kansas won their league. Why you ask? because in the two games we would have played against carolina, we needed a furious comeback in one, and got shellacked in the other...so UNC stays ahead of us unless we beat them.
    In this scenario, UNC would have lost in one of the first two rounds of the ACCT, probably to an unranked team (unless it's UVA). So they'd look better against us head-to-head, but their overall resume would take a hit. Since they'd have the same number of losses as us, I think we'd be seeded ahead of them overall.

    I'd always prefer to be a #1 seed over a #2, even if it means having to travel farther. I think you're more likely to get favorable matchups the more highly seeded you are, and that's the most important thing. Of course, it's no guarantee and anything can happen. Playing against Arizona in Anaheim last year was tough, although ultimately I don't know that the location affected the outcome.

    Also, any thoughts on how the Dawson injury will affect MSU's seed? I guess a lot will depend on how they play without him.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    In this scenario, UNC would have lost in one of the first two rounds of the ACCT, probably to an unranked team (unless it's UVA). So they'd look better against us head-to-head, but their overall resume would take a hit. Since they'd have one more loss than us, I think we'd be seeded ahead of them overall.

    I'd always prefer to be a #1 seed over a #2, even if it means having to travel farther. I think you're more likely to get a favorable matchup. Of course, it's no guarantee and anything can happen. Playing against Arizona in Anaheim last year was tough, although ultimately I don't know that the location affected the outcome.
    We'd have the same number of losses overall, and they would have just smacked us at home. I think the only way we can move ahead of them is if we beat them head to head. Many people view our first win as a fluke (and that was somewhat reinforced by the blowout yesterday)
    usa

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    We'd have the same number of losses overall, and they would have just smacked us at home. I think the only way we can move ahead of them is if we beat them head to head. Many people view our first win as a fluke (and that was somewhat reinforced by the blowout yesterday)
    Yeah, sorry I just realized my error. I guess we should hope for UNC to make it to the final (assuming we do too) so we have a chance at a big win. On the other hand, it's more likely that we'd lose versus playing a different team. I guess losing to UNC versus beating an unranked team probably has about the same effect on our seeding.

    I agree that preseason perceptions may affect the seedings. UNC is viewed as being a far better team than us even though our records are close.

  20. #20

    duke vs. michigan state

    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Just my opinion. We beat them in november.....and we also got blown out by OSU in the same timeframe. Yesterday we got blown out by UNC and today MSU took OSU to the final possesion. I am of the opinion that MSU has improved a lot more than we have since the time we played.

    We have one fewer loss than they do.

    They have played UNC, DUke, OSU twice, michigan twice, indiana twice, and wisconsin twice.....I would rather our schedule than ours, but even if ours is tougher, it can only be marginally so. Kenpom has us at 4 and them at 6. For all intents and purposes, those two schedules are equally difficult.

    I think the higher RPI argument is the strongest one, as the committee seems to blindly follow it. but has that been updated this week yet? the rankings haven't at least

    Further, MSU "won" their regular season championship (3 way tie) while duke did not, and in fact lost in in spectacular fasion on the last day of the season.

    That's just my opinion. that they would be 5 and we would be 6....i don't think that's necessarily a reflection of which team is actually better or would win...just a guess as to where the teams would stand from the committees viewpoint.
    I happen to agree with Jason ... I thought Duke would drop to six on the s-curve after the loss to UNC, but then Michigan State lost at home to Ohio State Sunday. That means Duke has a better record (26-5 vs. 23-6 ... not just one more loss, but three less wins), a better RPI (updated: Duke 4, MSU 5) and, of course, has beaten them head-to-head on a neutral court (no matter when it was). The fact that MSU tied for their conference title and Duke finished second in the ACC is not supposed to be a criteria for th committee -- for purposes of seeding, all at large teams are supposed to be judged as if they were independents (although who knows what this year's committee members think). One criteria the committee cites year after year as important is "who you choose to play" -- in other words, your non-conference SOS. In that metric, Duke is No. 2 in the country MSU is No. 19).

    I could easily see Duke being ahead of MSU on the s-curve as of today.

    All that said, I still think Duke is a No. 2 today. But I do believe that if Duke wins the ACC Tournament, there's a chance for the Devils to be a No. 1. If they beat UNC in the finals, I'm confident that Duke will finish ahead of UNC on the s-curve. I keep hearing people say the conference tournaments don't matter to the commitee (or matter only a little bit), but as I posted in another thread, that's simply not true. Look at history -- my fanorite example is 1998, when Duke beat UNC in the regular season finale to win the ACC regular season title and solidify its position as No. 1 in the polls. But UNC beat Duke in the ACC finals (its second win in three games with Duke) and moved ahead of Duke on the s-curve (Coach K complained that they got the more favorable bracketing). In 2005, we were behind Wake in the standings and the polls, but we won the tournament and got the No. 1 seed, while they got a No. 2.

    If Duke ends up beating UNC two out of three times (and thus ending up with the same overall record and a better RPI) the committee would have no choice but to put Duke head of UNC on the s-curve.

    The difference between UNC, Kansas, Duke and Michigan State is razor thin -- if one or two win their conference tournaments, they will be the No. 1 seeds.

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