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  1. #1

    Dre's stats in Dukes losses

    at Ohio State: 0 points
    at Temple: 0 points
    v. FSU: 14 points
    v. Miami: 3 points
    v. UNC: 0 points

    Since the big win (and big game for Dre) at FSU: 7 shots attempted (all from 3pt range)
    v. VT: 0 points
    at WFU: 3 points
    v. UNC: 0 points

    Lets hope the staff figures out a way between now and the ACCT about how to get Dre going again.

  2. #2
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    DHG hit the nail on the head. Now, I will say that I do see him putting forth the effort on D at times, and I've seen him make some big defensive plays in isolated moments. He just doesn't show it all the time, and I have no idea why. He knows he's not going to see the floor if he doesn't work hard on D. So either he just doesn't care (unlikely) or he has some sort of recurring mental lapse that no one has been able to cure.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoDukeDevils View Post
    at Ohio State: 0 points
    at Temple: 0 points
    v. FSU: 14 points
    v. Miami: 3 points
    v. UNC: 0 points

    Since the big win (and big game for Dre) at FSU: 7 shots attempted (all from 3pt range)
    v. VT: 0 points
    at WFU: 3 points
    v. UNC: 0 points

    Lets hope the staff figures out a way between now and the ACCT about how to get Dre going again.
    Here's what I posted on Andre back in the Phase III thread. His stats in our losses go back to his freshman and sophomore years as well:


    Andre

    A lot of this thread seems to be focusing on Dr. Dawkins. If he plays well enough to earn more minutes, that means he is most likely scoring the ball incredibly efficiently and that is good for Duke. Here's a look at Andre's stats over his first two years:

    2010 season - .379 on 3s, averaged 1 2-point shot per game. 4.4 points in 12.6 minutes. 2 DNPs.
    We know the personal issues he had about mid-season with his sister. His minutes and scoring really tailed off in January. He only scored 51 points in the final 26 games and had no double digit scoring games during that span.

    2011 season- .427 on 3s, averaged 1.5 2-point shots per game. 8.1 points in 21 minutes.
    Andre scored in double digits in 10 of the first 17 games last year. Then he only scored 101 points in the final 20 games and had two double digit scoring games over that span. Over that stretch he shot 22-67 from 3, less than the break-even .333 rate. He also had three games in that stretch in single-digit minutes.

    Here's a quick look at all his games where he's played 30+ minutes. I know this is a chicken-egg argument. If he's hot early, he's going to play big minutes:

    2010 season - No games with 30+ minutes.

    2011 season
    Butler - 32 minutes - 3-5 fgs, 2-4 3s, 10 points. Win.
    Bradley - 31 min - 10-17 fgs, 8-14 3s, 28 points. Win.
    Elon - 32 min - 5-9 fgs, 3-6 3s, 17 points. Win.
    UAB - 32 min - 3-4 fgs, 2-3 3s, 8 points. Win.
    Maryland - 30 min - 3-6 fgs, 2-5 3s, 8 points. Win.
    UVa - 32 min - 5-11 fgs, 3-8 3s, 14 points. Win.

    2012 season
    MSU - 38 minutes - 8-15 fgs, 6-10 3s, 26 points. Win
    TN - 32 minutes - 4-7 fgs, 2-4 3s, 10 points. Win.
    Michigan - 35 minutes - 5-12 fgs, 4-9 3s, 14 points. Win.
    Kansas - 34 minutes - 2-5 fgs, 2-4 3s, 6 points. Win.
    Washington - 32 minutes - 5-13 fgs, 2-9 3s, 17 points. Win.

    So Duke is 11-0 in games where Andre averages 30+. Some of those games he scores big, some of those games he's right around his average.

    Here's a quick look at Andre's stat lines in Duke's losses the past 3 seasons:

    2010 season
    Wisco - 22 min - 4-4 fgs, 4-4 3s, 12 points.
    GT - 12 min - 1-3, 0-2, 2 points.
    State - 9 min - 0-0, 0-0.
    Gtown - 13 min - 1-4, 1-4, 5 points.
    Maryland - 9 minutes - 2-3, 2-3, 6 points.

    2011 season
    FSU - 29 min - 2-9, 1-8, 8 points.
    St Johns - 27 min - 3-8, 1-6, 7 points.
    VT - 18 min - 2-4, 2-4, 6 points.
    Unc - 12 min - 0-1, 0-1.
    Zona - 22 min - 3-5, 1-2, 9 points.

    2012 season
    OSU - 19 min - 0-1, 0-0.
    Temple - 14 min - 0-3, 0-2.
    Scoreless in both our losses this year.

    I am not entirely sure what all this means. If I were the coach ( a big stretch, thanks) I'd run a few plays for him early and get him 2-3 goods looks and decide from there if it's going to be a 15 minute night or a 30 minute night. This of course assumes he's busting his tail on defense. I would also make sure he knows he must channel Rip Hamilton coming off screens to get open. No loafing. But if he's playing well and earning big minutes, we're going to win. That's awfully enticing.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Duke76 View Post
    And just what is Kelly's value if he isn't scoring or tyler's who is not a scorer...when they aren't hitting three's why not going with someone else who has shown he can get hot and get points in bunches....no one plays good fundamental defense...I saw Tyler let barnes blow by him numerous times Saturday....he doesn't box out you are right but no one else does on our team...I would say the plumlees are the worst offenders..they stand straight up and get pushed in the back until the refs call it...I'd rather at least give him a decent chance in the carolina game to get hot in the first half when no one else is hitting instead of 11 stinking minutes the whole game.
    So I admit Tyler isn't a scorer, but I'd be a bit concerned if one can't see his value on the floor by now. As for Dre I'm not near as convinced his leash is unfairly short. But I definitely think Quinn is ourweakest defender. I've gotten to where I cringe when I see him guarding. Nothng terminal, just typical freshman.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    So I admit Tyler isn't a scorer, but I'd be a bit concerned if one can't see his value on the floor by now.
    Yeah, if you need visual evidence of why Tyler starts and plays in crunch time, here you go. This play won't show up in the box score but potentially saved the game for us.

  6. #6
    How can Andre perform when he's not put into the game except for a few seconds.
    The last three games he's in then out with one mistake.
    No chance to get into the rhythm.
    Additionally, I have no respect for posters who "call out" individual players'
    as tho their performance alone is the cause of a loss (or win).
    The last time I looked, basketball was a TEAM sport.

  7. #7
    It looks to my uninformed eye like K has decided that if Dawkins isn't going to "bring it" mentally every night, then he's not going to get minutes. Again, just my speculation, but I think K wants off the roller coaster ride.

    Cook is not a good defender at all, but he works hard every minute he's in the game (and his defense is improving a bit - Marshall hit some freak shots over him the other night). K will reward consistent effort over inconsistent effort every single time, particularly when the inconsistent effort is coming from an upperclassman who has had time to figure this out.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    It's not about calling out individual players. I think what I posted is a proper read or assessment of Dre, and his lack of playing time. I have no inside information, but everyone can tell from watching the game. I think it's pretty easy to see that K has made it clear. If you play defense in a respectable fashion you'll get more play. He came in Saturday night, and immediately gave up baseline. He then missed a few shots on the other end, and that was it. His playing time boils down to this: 1) If you're on offensively you'll play; 2) If you're off offensively you're not going to get the time to work it out because you don't play defense. It's not an attack. Does anyone really think what I'm saying is inaccurate? The games with his most minutes are when he's shooting well. In the words of Michael Corleone, "It's not personal. It's strictly business."

  9. #9
    I'm going to repost some analysis I did in the "Are we relying too heavily on 'the Lottery'" thread, in response to people's claims that he's streaky, or that the coaches should make sure he gets shots early to see if he's "on":

    ...
    According to all the game trackers on ESPN, [Dawkins] shot 66/158 this season -- 41.8%.*

    This season, after a make he is 28/66 (42%). After a miss he is 38/91 (42%).

    After two misses in a row, if he shoots another in the same game, he is 10/25. After two makes: 11/24. After a miss and a make: 23/54.

    After missing three in a row, if he shoots another in the same game, he is 3/10. After three makes.... 3/10.

    I'm sure if we took this out over all of his games with Duke we'd see a similar pattern: whether he has made his previous shots has no predictive value whatsoever on whether he'll make his next one.




    * I think two attempts might be missing there, but I am not going to go through all the games to find it.

  10. #10
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    Nov 2007
    I humbly request the supporters to isolate their viewing on him on or off the ball when he's on defense. It isn't pretty. Maybe a light will come on, which could be the case. However, he's not playing because he has not played defense to date. When you combine that fact with Duke doesn't have the length or lock down defenders to assist that is why he's not playing. K will forgive some of his defensive inadequacies when he is hitting. However, if he is not not hitting K can't afford to keep him in there. It really is that simple. We don't need stats or inside knowledge to figure it out. Just watch the games.

  11. #11
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    I agree with most of what people have said here regarding Andre's defense thus far, although I would point out that on occasion he has been good. It's almost a lack of focus as opposed to anything else. I would also add that he is most likely going to get significant minutes on Friday as K generally gets more folks on the court in the early games of the ACC tournament to save legs in case they need to play 3 in 3 days. I would hope Andre uses that time as an opportunity to show real effort on both ends and earn some more time going forward in the big dance.

  12. #12
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    Agreed

    Quote Originally Posted by DukeHoopsGuru View Post
    I humbly request the supporters to isolate their viewing on him on or off the ball when he's on defense. It isn't pretty. Maybe a light will come on, which could be the case. However, he's not playing because he has not played defense to date. When you combine that fact with Duke doesn't have the length or lock down defenders to assist that is why he's not playing. K will forgive some of his defensive inadequacies when he is hitting. However, if he is not not hitting K can't afford to keep him in there. It really is that simple. We don't need stats or inside knowledge to figure it out. Just watch the games.
    And, as has been pointed out, Kelly is almost in the same boat. Ryan is more of a liablity on Defense than Andre is due to the constant flopping, which almost always leads to an easy offensive put back or dump off for a dunk, while he is laying on the floor underneath the basket. Kelly cannot guard the dribble drive and unless he is hitting, he is a major liability. And yet, at least Kelly has developed several post moves that he can utilize down low. In three years, Andre has yet to create his own shot via the dribble drive, it is very strange that he hasn't been able to add a two dribble pull up jumper to his arsenal, especially on nights when the 3 isn't falling. He seems to be a great athlete, which makes it even more bizarre that he can't take two strong dribbles and pull up for a 15 foot jumper...

    This really is one of the more strange teams K has assembled during his era. Very few defenders, a ton of shooters, no real offensive threat down low, no true point guard and amazingly we were one win away from ACC regular season champs. Which proves that K should be the ACC coach of the year.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeHoopsGuru View Post
    It's not about calling out individual players. I think what I posted is a proper read or assessment of Dre, and his lack of playing time. I have no inside information, but everyone can tell from watching the game. I think it's pretty easy to see that K has made it clear. If you play defense in a respectable fashion you'll get more play. He came in Saturday night, and immediately gave up baseline. He then missed a few shots on the other end, and that was it. His playing time boils down to this: 1) If you're on offensively you'll play; 2) If you're off offensively you're not going to get the time to work it out because you don't play defense. It's not an attack. Does anyone really think what I'm saying is inaccurate? The games with his most minutes are when he's shooting well. In the words of Michael Corleone, "It's not personal. It's strictly business."
    As I've already noted, he is equally likely to make a shot after a miss or string of misses as he is after a make or a string of makes. I imagine you have the causation backwards: the more minutes he pleays, the more baskets he makes. Coach K has shown consistently that players who are good shooters are given the green light, regardless of what has proceeded it. If he's missed 3 in a row, but passes on an open shot... he'll get pulled. What's likely driving his minutes is not his "streakiness" (which is illusory), but his defense. And this has always been the case with Coach K as long as I've been watching his teams (over 20 years now... ugh).

  14. #14
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    Nov 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    As I've already noted, he is equally likely to make a shot after a miss or string of misses as he is after a make or a string of makes. I imagine you have the causation backwards: the more minutes he pleays, the more baskets he makes. Coach K has shown consistently that players who are good shooters are given the green light, regardless of what has proceeded it. If he's missed 3 in a row, but passes on an open shot... he'll get pulled. What's likely driving his minutes is not his "streakiness" (which is illusory), but his defense. And this has always been the case with Coach K as long as I've been watching his teams (over 20 years now... ugh).
    I think we're saying the same thing for the most part. However, this year his streakiness plays more of a role than almost every other Duke team. In the past Duke was good enough defensively to take a little more liberty to see if Dre would start hitting. However, they are so bad defensively this season that the luxury to do that does not exist. It puts more pressure on Dre because if he's not hitting (as we've seen) he's coming to bench very soon unless he is playing solid defense. The defense or lack thereof is and always will be the determining factor. However, there's a tangential issue with whether or not he's hitting.

    PS - I am still befuddled at his lack of development on the offensive end 3 years into the system.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    As I've already noted, he is equally likely to make a shot after a miss or string of misses as he is after a make or a string of makes. I imagine you have the causation backwards: the more minutes he pleays, the more baskets he makes. Coach K has shown consistently that players who are good shooters are given the green light, regardless of what has proceeded it. If he's missed 3 in a row, but passes on an open shot... he'll get pulled. What's likely driving his minutes is not his "streakiness" (which is illusory), but his defense. And this has always been the case with Coach K as long as I've been watching his teams (over 20 years now... ugh).
    I think your post sums it up pretty well with Andre and Coach K. Andre's best attribute is his outstanding shooting. Coach K's emphasis is playing good defense. Andre's least attribute is playing defense. Not only on the ball defense, but help defense as well. As I've said in previous posts it's more mental(focus) than physical. Some have brought up other players in the equation, but those players bring other things to the table/game. Not that they are great at them but they do bring them. With the physical ability that Andre is blessed with, I don't know why he can't dribble better and can't defend better. Like I said, it must be his mental make up. I love this kid and want to see him improve. I wonder if letting him play through some of his mistakes would help. We sure need him on his game for this team to be elite. GoDuke!

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    It looks to my uninformed eye like K has decided that if Dawkins isn't going to "bring it" mentally every night, then he's not going to get minutes. Again, just my speculation, but I think K wants off the roller coaster ride.
    Here's the thing. We basically have on the record confirmation of this. There was a profile article posted earlier this year (I'm too lazy/incompetent to find the link) about Andre, which has Chris Collins asking him in pre-game warmups "Is it the Good Andre or the Bad Andre, tonight?" And Andre confirms later in the article that THIS - his mental approach during games - is the thing he has to work on most.

    And if you think of "mental approach" as a game skill like the ones that are more obvious - rebounding, passing, shooting, playing D, etc. - it also seems pretty obvious to the coaching staff when "the matchup" regarding Andre's mental approach are unfavorable, or when they are willing to sacrifice the things he doesn't do well for the things he does well.

  17. #17
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    It's really an unfortunate situation for Dre this year, when you think about it. He offers a heckuva lot, basketball-wise, but almost entirely on one end of the court -- and it happens to be the one end of the court where this team really doesn't need all that much help. So while Andre has tons to give to the team on offense, the team only needs him for his defense. A stalwart, 6-4 wing defender could really go a long way towards helping this team shore up its defensive vulbnerabilities. And yet, this is the one thing Andre hasn't been able to provide.

    But for all the talk of Dre's "inconsistency," in reality, the only thing that has actually varied widely has been his minutes. His total scoring output has been up-and-down, true, but (as gus has shown here and elsewhere) this has largely been a factor of his minutes, not his shooting. His per-minute performance, I believe, is not nearly as variable. And, like his shooting, his defense has also been fairly consistent, albeit consistently below par.

    It's hard to say what exactly Dre can do to fix this before the end of this season. He doesn't have the best lateral quickness, so keeping his man out of the lane is a challenge -- improving that is a matter of physical training and off-season drills. And his help D is not the sharpest, either -- a matter of precise timing and focus, also a candidate for improvement in the off-season. I would point out that at times this season he has had some limited success in off-ball, pass-denial defense. Nonetheless, he hasn't put it all together on D, and at this point in the year, I'm not even sure if Ozzie believes he will magically "figure it out." It certainly would be nice if he did, however, because I can't think of anything this team needs more desperately.
    Last edited by Jderf; 03-05-2012 at 11:20 AM.
    "With seven national titles and 20 Final Fours in the 64-team NCAA Tournament era, Duke and UNC have had more playoff success than any other CONFERENCE." - Al Featherston

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    What's likely driving his minutes is not his "streakiness" (which is illusory), but his defense. And this has always been the case with Coach K as long as I've been watching his teams (over 20 years now... ugh).
    I agree with both posters here, in that its both Andre's streakiness AND his defense that cost him minutes, because Andre embodies something about this team that Coach K basically stated during the post-game press conference for Carolina, which is that when we miss our shots, our whole game suffers. We play worse defense, we're not as good rebounding, etc.

    To a degree that I can not remember in any Duke team that I have followed, this team's offense affects its defense, not the other way around. And I think the player who personifies this most is Andre.

  19. #19
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    Cmon people

    I can't believe we are still talking about the glaring problems with our team. K himself even said: this is who we are. This is boring. Practically everyone else in college basketball, whose not a true-blue fan says the same thing about us. 101

  20. #20
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    True

    Quote Originally Posted by Wildcat View Post
    I can't believe we are still talking about the glaring problems with our team. K himself even said: this is who we are. This is boring. Practically everyone else in college basketball, whose not a true-blue fan says the same thing about us. 101
    This is true. Really, unless you are UNC, Kentucky or Syracuse, everyone has glaring problems, that's why it's college basketball and why every year is and can be a crap shoot based on the whims of a group of kids. I'm glad my job isn't dependent on the moods, decisions and attitudes of 18-22 year olds, I'd blow my brains out!! So, we have a great chance of making a run and we should be glad that just about every year at this time of year, we actually all believe that. It's remarkable how sustainable K has made Duke. March is awesome because we are always in the mix, imagine being a myriad of other programs who have one shot every 4-5 years or so of making a deep run, and when over, they know it ain't coming around again anytime soon. Heck, if we lose in the second round, we all know that next year we'll be back with hopefully an even deeper and more talented squad. Let's enjoy and stop the nitpicking, I for one am tired of doing it myself....

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