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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoHeel View Post
    It's exactly the same for us. We defended well in the last game, but not quite well enough. You shot 44% for the game and 39% from three; if you equal those numbers it will be hard for us to overcome. We shot well from the 2P range (53%), but got nothing from the three (17%). We need to get at least some outside shooting. One three won't cut it for us.

    Just like last time, the extent to which you can neutralize our inside advantage and we can offset your perimeter scoring should determine the outcome.

    I'm very curious to see how Rivers plays. Going into the last one I was worried about his ability to penetrate and dish- turned out he just scored a bunch. We really don't match up well against him and I'm afraid his confidence will be sky high. How do we keep him from breaking us down and creating foul trouble? My hope is that Barnes is in better shape and we can use a combination of Barnes, Bullock, and maybe Watts to make him work for his points. But Rivers blew right past HB last time, so I don't have much hope there.

    Our best hope is that Rivers is just not as on as he was last time. Of course, I did not watch the game again so my memory might be foggy here, but I recall some of his shots were good only because they went in. Quick shots from behind the arc might help us if he's over-amped. I don't really like the fact that my best hope is that the opposing player becomes his own worst enemy.
    I agree on pretty much all of this. UNC has a clear advantage inside. We have a clear advantage on the perimeter. The degree to which one team can neutralize the other team's advantage will be the key. In the first game, neither team was able to handle the other team's strength, and the score was crazy high and Duke was fortunate to hit just enough shots down the stretch.

    I agree on Rivers. He definitely got trigger happy in the first meeting - especially during the stretch where Barnes got hot early in the second half. He was on that night, so the results were good. But several of those makes weren't the best decisions. He just happened to have literally the best game of his young career that night. If he has a bad shooting night but keeps chucking then we could be in big trouble.

    I won't expect him to be nearly as dominant as he was in that game. But I hope that guys like Curry, Dawkins, Kelly, and the Plumlees can step up for us. We probably can't afford another 1-13 performance from 3 from Kelly and Thornton. Kelly needs to shoot better and Thornton probably needs to shoot less than they each did in the last matchup.

    It's the type of game that could be a 15-point win for either team if the right things play out (if either side gets hot and plays better defense), or it could be another down-to-the-wire nailbiter.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by wilko View Post
    I hope Josh can go. I'm not sure RK is the guy I want covering Barnes. Maybe in spots... he'll be hard to shoot over but easy to get around so the D needs to be alert to that.
    I don't think you have to worry about either Ryan or Josh guarding Barnes. Except on switches, neither player will attempt to defend him. It will either be Austin or Andre defending him.

    The Duke/UNC game often brings surprise performances, and in that vein I am concerned that Bullock may suddenly realize he's 7 inches taller than whomever is guarding him and have a career game. Other than that, to me the key is controlling Marshall. Their bigs will get theirs, not too much we can do about it. Marshall is what makes UNC go.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I don't think you have to worry about either Ryan or Josh guarding Barnes. Except on switches, neither player will attempt to defend him. It will either be Austin or Andre defending him.
    I don't care who, really, just as long as they can be effective in throwing a blanket on him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    The Duke/UNC game often brings surprise performances, and in that vein I am concerned that Bullock may suddenly realize he's 7 inches taller than whomever is guarding him and have a career game. Other than that, to me the key is controlling Marshall. Their bigs will get theirs, not too much we can do about it. Marshall is what makes UNC go.
    I fully agree. That's why I suggested make their guards flat out work and run them ragged since they have fewer options at guard.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    UNC has a history of going underneath screens at the 3pt line, and as such they haven't historically done well defending the 3. By going under the screens, if the bigs don't hedge well the guards will get good looks at 3s. That can really hurt them against a good 3pt shooting team (like us).

    It will be interesting to see if Williams changes that strategy. He's got the size on the perimeter to make life difficult for our shooters, and aside from Rivers (and occasionally Curry) and Cook (for the few minutes he plays) we don't have guards who are great at attacking off the dribble.

    Williams is pretty rigid when it comes to philosophy changes, so I doubt he'll do it. More likely he'll stick with what got him here and try to play to his team's strengths. But it'd be interesting/scary to see what would happen if he did make that adjustment.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Duke: 12 ACC regular season crowns, 13 ACC Championships, 11 Final Fours, 4 National Championships
    UNC: 14 ACC regular season crowns, 9 ACC Championships, 11 Final Fours, 4 National Championships
    Just wanted to say that I'm kinda partial to your terminology of a "regular season crown" and an ACC Championship. I like it.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I agree on Rivers. He definitely got trigger happy in the first meeting - especially during the stretch where Barnes got hot early in the second half. He was on that night, so the results were good. But several of those makes weren't the best decisions. He just happened to have literally the best game of his young career that night. If he has a bad shooting night but keeps chucking then we could be in big trouble.
    Regarding Austin's threes, I like it when he is taking them. However, sometimes, as you say, he can get trigger happy. If he is going to be dominating the ball in this game, which I would be comfortable with if that were K's plan, I would hope that he will focus on taking the ball to the rim, with a little three-point shooting lightly sprinkled in. For the most part, I'd say he is best used to open up the 3-point line for our other shooters. After all, we've got a lot of them.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Inman, SC & Fort Myers, FL
    With regard to Barnes, I am always reminded of the WC Fields movie "The Old-Fashioned Way." During the last third of the movie, the running joke line is "Here comes the Prince!"

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Assuming UNC stays healthy tonight, the key to the game Saturday will be scoring more points than the heels...

    But seriously, it comes down to two things: 3 point shooting and big man play. We have to shoot the 3 ball well and hope they don't, and the Plumlees/Kelly have to stay close to Zeller/Henson. I don't expect our bigs to outplay them but they must compete close to their numbers/production. I expect UNC to play their best game of the year (similar to last year's season finale). I hope Duke can do the same and ride the Crazies to the win!

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Boca Grande Florida
    The big question/key...Will Kendall Marshall finish at the rim?

    I expect him to attack off the dribble, not kick it out, he must finish. And he needs to stay rested. White needs to have quality minutes, or KM can pace himself first half if post offense from Zeller/Henson is working.

    Rebounding? Who wants it more...

    Fouls? Can Duke guard the post without getting in foul trouble?

    Can UNC shoot straight? Their outside shooting is as bad as Duke's post offense.

    Will Duke shoot lights out and steal another one?

    My questions for this one...

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    Will Duke shoot lights out and steal another one?
    Not steal WIN

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post

    Will Duke shoot lights out and steal another one?

    If we stole the last game, doesn't that make Mr. Zeller an accomplice? After all, he had a small, but significant contribution to Duke's theft...

  11. #31

    Zeller

    The key to beating the Heels is stopping Zeller. He gave Duke fits in the first half of the last game. In the 3 other games the Heels have lost- he was held in check. Unfortunately, this will not be an easy task for Duke. The play of the big guys will be key.

  12. #32
    Block out, REBOUND!

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    With UNC's win last night, the game on Saturday will officially determine #1 and #2. Had they lost and Miami won, we'd need to have either an FSU win or a Miami loss to secure the #3 seed (which would be the tiebreaker if both UNC and Duke ended up 13-3 with a head-to-head split). We wanted to win regardless. Now it matters just that much more. I'd much rather see one of Virginia/Miami/NC State in the semifinal than FSU.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I'd much rather see one of Virginia/Miami/NC State in the semifinal than FSU.
    I understand this sentiment but don't agree, especially the "much rather" part, as "much rather" suggests that FSU is a much tougher opponent for Duke than all of the other 3.

    IMO, a semi with any of those 4 is close to a toss-up; Duke would be favored, but not by lots against any of the 4. If Sene is back, and maybe even if not, UVa is very tough D. Miami is up and down, but Reggie sure beat the hell out of our inside guys. I guess we'd have the "revenge" factor on our side v. Canes; but then NCSt would have revenge-edge if they were the opponent. FSU? Toss-up, with Duke slight favorite, but not that much more dangerous to Devils' ACCT aspirations. None of the 4 teams fears Duke; they all think Duke is soft and lucky. [Well, maybe not Bennett and Cavs, whose MO is head-down, stifling D, shut up and play hard.]

    They're all dangerous, unless Devils suddenly start playing with smooth efficiency. For that matter, any of our likely quarterfinal opponents - Clemson/Md/VT - would all love to upset the Devils

    CDu, and others, I'm willing to be persuaded of the error of my thinking here...

    [Edit: True that for 2 of the UVa/Miami/NCSt group, Duke would play a 5-seed on that team's 3d game in 3 days, but not true for the #4 seed. So that factor does make 2 of these 3 marginally less dangerous, if Duke were to get 5-seed in semis.]
    Last edited by gumbomoop; 03-01-2012 at 10:31 AM.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA

    Keys to the Game

    1. Knock down our 3-pointers (paging Andre Dawkins)
    2. Contain Zeller (we don't have to stop him just contain him)
    3. Pressure Marshall
    4. Foul trouble (Carolina is uber talented but they are not deep)
    Bob Green

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    Block out, REBOUND!
    Yeah, I agree, I really think it is that simple.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I understand this sentiment but don't agree, especially the "much rather" part, as "much rather" suggests that FSU is a much tougher opponent for Duke than all of the other 3.

    IMO, a semi with any of those 4 is close to a toss-up; Duke would be favored, but not by lots against any of the 4. If Sene is back, and maybe even if not, UVa is very tough D. Miami is up and down, but Reggie sure beat the hell out of our inside guys. I guess we'd have the "revenge" factor on our side v. Canes; but then NCSt would have revenge-edge if they were the opponent. FSU? Toss-up, with Duke slight favorite, but not that much more dangerous to Devils' ACCT aspirations. None of the 4 teams fears Duke; they all think Duke is soft and lucky. [Well, maybe not Bennett and Cavs, whose MO is head-down, stifling D, shut up and play hard.]

    They're all dangerous, unless Devils suddenly start playing with smooth efficiency. For that matter, any of our likely quarterfinal opponents - Clemson/Md/VT - would all love to upset the Devils

    CDu, and others, I'm willing to be persuaded of the error of my thinking here...
    I think UVa, with the injuries to Sene and Harris, just doesn't have the weapons to beat us. They can make the game ugly, and if Evans is getting in the lane or Zeglinski gets hot they can be a threat. But I'm more concerned about FSU's depth and defense than UVa.

    Miami certainly has the athletes. But I think they played as well as they could play against us in Cameron, and we didn't play very well during the first half. I'd expect us to play better than we did in the first half though not as well as we did in the comeback. Basically, I think we're a better team now than when we played Miami, and I think our improvement has been more than their improvement. But they're the team that concerns me most of those middle 3.

    With State, the issue is depth and dumb mistakes. Their big guys just can't seem to stay out of foul trouble, and they don't have any sort of depth. They played the game of their lives for the first 30 minutes against us in Cameron (including getting a season-high 13 points on 3-4 3pt shooting from Alex Johnson) before foul trouble caught up to them. On top of the foul trouble concerns, there's the "close game" intangible. If it's close late, State will seemingly find a way to lose it. They just don't seem to finish strong. It cost them against Duke, UVa, Clemson, and others. We also couldn't have played worse in that first half against State. We shot only 27.6% from 3 and only 36.2% overall. I don't think we'll play so poorly again. Leslie is a concern for the matchup problems he creates. But I think we'll be more ready for his athleticism this time around. I think he caught us a bit off guard in Cameron.

    I can certainly see cases made for State and Miami. I think UVa's threat is less than the other two. And I think we should beat any of the four. But I'd much rather face one of those middle three than FSU. And that's not even considering that we could face a #5 seed who has played two games the previous two days (very relevant for State and UVa who lack depth and Miami who could have a worn-out Reggie Johnson).

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    4. Foul trouble (Carolina is uber talented but they are not deep)
    Physical play by Miles down low would help some here. We need him to put some pressure
    on them to get them in foul trouble. Remember, we have more one quality big than they do;
    if the Plumlees Zeller and Henson foul out, that would leave RK to win it at the free throw line.

    Be nice to see Andre do something again; think we're maybe due for another Andre explosion.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rent free in tarheels’ heads
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    Block out, REBOUND!
    YES. If we box out, we ought to be able to neutralize their rebounding prowess to a meaningful degree. I HATE seeing all the easy stick backs they get because of poor (or no) boxing out by the defense. If our big guys will stick their backs into zeller and henson's chest, we'll do ourselves a huge favor. Henson in particular is just not powerful enough to push our guys around if they focus on good box out positioning.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by hq2 View Post
    Physical play by Miles down low would help some here. We need him to put some pressure
    on them to get them in foul trouble. Remember, we have more one quality big than they do;
    if the Plumlees Zeller and Henson foul out, that would leave RK to win it at the free throw line.
    Yeah, I'd feel very good about a Kelly/Hairston matchup against Hubert/McAdoo. Of course, I'd be pretty surprised if such a matchup materializes. UNC's bigs usually do a very good job of not getting in foul trouble. Still - it would be a very nice surprise if that happens.

    Quote Originally Posted by hq2 View Post
    Be nice to see Andre do something again; think we're maybe due for another Andre explosion.
    Absolutely. That's the thing with this team. There are so many guys capable of monster shooting performances from the perimeter (Curry, Dawkins, Kelly, Rivers). Hopefully a few of them (or all of them - I'm okay with being greedy) can do it on Saturday. But Dawkins is certainly a prime candidate.

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