MBB: Duke vs UNC - Pre-Game & In-Game Thread

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Alright folks, it's another season that comes down to Duke v. The Evil Empire with all the chips on the line! Let's get started with our thoughts, rants, analysis, anxiety! After Saturday, every game is an elimination game. It's been an exciting year, and once again Coach K has Duke poised for success!

Thoughts to get things going:

- How goes Roy's general attitude towards regular season "championships" v. conference tournament championships impact his prep for this game?
- Talk preseason was about how it was UNC's season to pursue perfection and how they ought to be the de facto national favorites. How did Duke put themselves one win away from the top seed in the ACC tourney with the #1 seen for the NCAA's very much in play?
- What have been the improvements you've seen through the season, last few weeks in particular as Duke has regained some of their grit and aura?
- THANK YOU SENIORS! Er, Miles.

GTHC GTHC GTHC GTHC!!!

[COYS]

Alright folks, it's another season that comes down to Duke v. The Evil Empire with all the chips on the line! Let's get started with our thoughts, rants, analysis, anxiety! After Saturday, every game is an elimination game. It's been an exciting year, and once again Coach K has Duke poised for success!

Thoughts to get things going:

- How goes Roy's general attitude towards regular season "championships" v. conference tournament championships impact his prep for this game?
- Talk preseason was about how it was UNC's season to pursue perfection and how they ought to be the de facto national favorites. How did Duke put themselves one win away from the top seed in the ACC tourney with the #1 seen for the NCAA's very much in play?
- What have been the improvements you've seen through the season, last few weeks in particular as Duke has regained some of their grit and aura?
- THANK YOU SENIORS! Er, Miles.

GTHC GTHC GTHC GTHC!!!

Miles' increased aggressiveness will be key. Duke played UNC very well in Chapel Hill, leading for all but the last minute of the first half, and of course battling back for the victory in the end. UNC had to fight back into the game and did so largely on the strength of their offensive rebounding. Other than Zeller's excellent performance, no Heel really went off until they started collecting offensive boards with impunity. If Miles can continue his stellar work on the boards, it will go a long way toward limiting UNC's chances in the half-court.

The other key, as it always is against UNC, is to keep them out of transition. This means the guards must limit open-court turnovers and the whole team needs to hustle back at the end of every offensive possession, even on made buckets. Barnes was having a poor game until he got it going in transition the last time these teams met. Duke needs to keep Barnes away from easy buckets and turn him into a volume jump shooter (and, as mentioned before, prevent his misses from ending up in the hands of Henson and Zeller).

The final key will be to exploit our advantage from three-land while simultaneously remaining aggressive on offense. UNC has less depth than Duke. Three point shooting doesn't usually lead to many free throw attempts. However, if we stay aggressive at attacking Marshall and Hairston off the dribble and draw a few fouls while also kicking out to open shooters, it will go a long way toward making our offense more efficient. I'd love to see Duke create three point shots the way we did down at FSU. Drive and kick, pick n' pop, or just have good ball movement. The higher the quality of our three point shots, the better chance we have of generating enough offense to beat the Heels.

[OldPhiKap]

UNC is perhaps the most talented team in the conference. On paper. But paper ain't where the game is played.

I think UNC having two conference losses is probably about expected. Duke only having two is not given what we lost last year. The fact that we are in this position is due to the fight these kids have and the coaches who lead them. Well done.

I would not be surprised to see UNC favored or this game to be a pick 'em.

Let's bring home a victory for Miles!!!

[DukieInBrasil]

Alright folks, it's another season that comes down to Duke v. The Evil Empire with all the chips on the line! Let's get started with our thoughts, rants, analysis, anxiety! After Saturday, every game is an elimination game. It's been an exciting year, and once again Coach K has Duke poised for success!

Thoughts to get things going:

- How goes Roy's general attitude towards regular season "championships" v. conference tournament championships impact his prep for this game?
- Talk preseason was about how it was UNC's season to pursue perfection and how they ought to be the de facto national favorites. How did Duke put themselves one win away from the top seed in the ACC tourney with the #1 seen for the NCAA's very much in play?
- What have been the improvements you've seen through the season, last few weeks in particular as Duke has regained some of their grit and aura?
- THANK YOU SENIORS! Er, Miles.

GTHC GTHC GTHC GTHC!!!

a) Austin Rivers' awesome game-winner at the Dump. Doesn't hurt that UNC is not as good as people wanted them to be pre-season.
b) Miles's resurgence has been big, but also Austin assuming the go-to playmaker helm as well as Seth playing consistently well.

If we play @ Cameron the way we did @ the Dump, we'll win, as i don't think UNC can play much better than they did in that game, and our peak defensive intensity seems to have improved, in that we have longer stretches of PDI. Even vs. Wake we had a good 30 minutes of PDI, and still were able to recover despite about 7 minutes of essentially not playing D at all.

[Olympic Fan]

I hate the title of this thread.

What's at stake is the "regular season conference championship". The "conference championship" will be decided next week in Atlanta.

[COYS]

a) Austin Rivers' awesome game-winner at the Dump. Doesn't hurt that UNC is not as good as people wanted them to be pre-season.
b) Miles's resurgence has been big, but also Austin assuming the go-to playmaker helm as well as Seth playing consistently well.

If we play @ Cameron the way we did @ the Dump, we'll win, as i don't think UNC can play much better than they did in that game, and our peak defensive intensity seems to have improved, in that we have longer stretches of PDI. Even vs. Wake we had a good 30 minutes of PDI, and still were able to recover despite about 7 minutes of essentially not playing D at all.

Ha! PDI sounds like something you really, really should get checked out at the doctor's office.

I agree, though. Duke has been able to reach new levels of defensive intensity. Interestingly, this has often come at the expense of some of our offense. I think Duke is a better team now than a few weeks ago, but I would love to see Duke maintain this new level PDI while also reaching it's ceiling on the offensive end, too.

[DukeGirl4ever]

I'm gonna go a little off-topic, but hey, the title says "Pre-Game" and In-Game thread.

I'm excited to see what College Game Day brings to Cameron. I hope the "hype" doesn't get us over-hyped and we come out struggling.

I have watched some of the previous Game Day shows where they play a version of the Newlywed Game with two teammates from the host school. Some of them ended up being pretty entertaining. I'd love to see some of our Duke guys do this, but I don't know if it would be a distraction.

I'm wondering if Coach K will allow them to do this on Saturday...

I know the crowd will be ready on Saturday. I'll have my Tums in hand...

[CDu]

If we can defend a bit better and shoot well, we'll win. And if we can get a solid showing from our bigs (Miles was a bit MIA against UNC and Kelly was pretty quiet for 35 minutes), that will help. Our defense has been better lately than it was coming into the first UNC game, so hopefully we'll be better prepared to guard them.

In the past, our big guys have been able to somewhat contain their big guys. That wasn't really the case in the first meeting this year when their bigs combined for 40 points and 23 rebounds. If we can keep their bigs to around 30 points and less than 20 boards, I like our chances.

[ChicagoHeel]

If we can defend a bit better and shoot well, we'll win.

It's exactly the same for us. We defended well in the last game, but not quite well enough. You shot 44% for the game and 39% from three; if you equal those numbers it will be hard for us to overcome. We shot well from the 2P range (53%), but got nothing from the three (17%). We need to get at least some outside shooting. One three won't cut it for us.

Just like last time, the extent to which you can neutralize our inside advantage and we can offset your perimeter scoring should determine the outcome.

I'm very curious to see how Rivers plays. Going into the last one I was worried about his ability to penetrate and dish- turned out he just scored a bunch. We really don't match up well against him and I'm afraid his confidence will be sky high. How do we keep him from breaking us down and creating foul trouble? My hope is that Barnes is in better shape and we can use a combination of Barnes, Bullock, and maybe Watts to make him work for his points. But Rivers blew right past HB last time, so I don't have much hope there.

Our best hope is that Rivers is just not as on as he was last time. Of course, I did not watch the game again so my memory might be foggy here, but I recall some of his shots were good only because they went in. Quick shots from behind the arc might help us if he's over-amped. I don't really like the fact that my best hope is that the opposing player becomes his own worst enemy.

[CDu]

It's exactly the same for us. We defended well in the last game, but not quite well enough. You shot 44% for the game and 39% from three; if you equal those numbers it will be hard for us to overcome. We shot well from the 2P range (53%), but got nothing from the three (17%). We need to get at least some outside shooting. One three won't cut it for us.

Just like last time, the extent to which you can neutralize our inside advantage and we can offset your perimeter scoring should determine the outcome.

I'm very curious to see how Rivers plays. Going into the last one I was worried about his ability to penetrate and dish- turned out he just scored a bunch. We really don't match up well against him and I'm afraid his confidence will be sky high. How do we keep him from breaking us down and creating foul trouble? My hope is that Barnes is in better shape and we can use a combination of Barnes, Bullock, and maybe Watts to make him work for his points. But Rivers blew right past HB last time, so I don't have much hope there.

Our best hope is that Rivers is just not as on as he was last time. Of course, I did not watch the game again so my memory might be foggy here, but I recall some of his shots were good only because they went in. Quick shots from behind the arc might help us if he's over-amped. I don't really like the fact that my best hope is that the opposing player becomes his own worst enemy.

I agree on pretty much all of this. UNC has a clear advantage inside. We have a clear advantage on the perimeter. The degree to which one team can neutralize the other team's advantage will be the key. In the first game, neither team was able to handle the other team's strength, and the score was crazy high and Duke was fortunate to hit just enough shots down the stretch.

I agree on Rivers. He definitely got trigger happy in the first meeting - especially during the stretch where Barnes got hot early in the second half. He was on that night, so the results were good. But several of those makes weren't the best decisions. He just happened to have literally the best game of his young career that night. If he has a bad shooting night but keeps chucking then we could be in big trouble.

I won't expect him to be nearly as dominant as he was in that game. But I hope that guys like Curry, Dawkins, Kelly, and the Plumlees can step up for us. We probably can't afford another 1-13 performance from 3 from Kelly and Thornton. Kelly needs to shoot better and Thornton probably needs to shoot less than they each did in the last matchup.

It's the type of game that could be a 15-point win for either team if the right things play out (if either side gets hot and plays better defense), or it could be another down-to-the-wire nailbiter.

[Kedsy]

I hope Josh can go. I'm not sure RK is the guy I want covering Barnes. Maybe in spots... he'll be hard to shoot over but easy to get around so the D needs to be alert to that.

I don't think you have to worry about either Ryan or Josh guarding Barnes. Except on switches, neither player will attempt to defend him. It will either be Austin or Andre defending him.

The Duke/UNC game often brings surprise performances, and in that vein I am concerned that Bullock may suddenly realize he's 7 inches taller than whomever is guarding him and have a career game. Other than that, to me the key is controlling Marshall. Their bigs will get theirs, not too much we can do about it. Marshall is what makes UNC go.

[wilko]

I don't think you have to worry about either Ryan or Josh guarding Barnes. Except on switches, neither player will attempt to defend him. It will either be Austin or Andre defending him.

I don't care who, really, just as long as they can be effective in throwing a blanket on him.

The Duke/UNC game often brings surprise performances, and in that vein I am concerned that Bullock may suddenly realize he's 7 inches taller than whomever is guarding him and have a career game. Other than that, to me the key is controlling Marshall. Their bigs will get theirs, not too much we can do about it. Marshall is what makes UNC go.

I fully agree. That's why I suggested make their guards flat out work and run them ragged since they have fewer options at guard.

[CDu]

UNC has a history of going underneath screens at the 3pt line, and as such they haven't historically done well defending the 3. By going under the screens, if the bigs don't hedge well the guards will get good looks at 3s. That can really hurt them against a good 3pt shooting team (like us).

It will be interesting to see if Williams changes that strategy. He's got the size on the perimeter to make life difficult for our shooters, and aside from Rivers (and occasionally Curry) and Cook (for the few minutes he plays) we don't have guards who are great at attacking off the dribble.

Williams is pretty rigid when it comes to philosophy changes, so I doubt he'll do it. More likely he'll stick with what got him here and try to play to his team's strengths. But it'd be interesting/scary to see what would happen if he did make that adjustment.

[Jderf]

Duke: 12 ACC regular season crowns, 13 ACC Championships, 11 Final Fours, 4 National Championships
UNC: 14 ACC regular season crowns, 9 ACC Championships, 11 Final Fours, 4 National Championships

Just wanted to say that I'm kinda partial to your terminology of a "regular season crown" and an ACC Championship. I like it.

I agree on Rivers. He definitely got trigger happy in the first meeting - especially during the stretch where Barnes got hot early in the second half. He was on that night, so the results were good. But several of those makes weren't the best decisions. He just happened to have literally the best game of his young career that night. If he has a bad shooting night but keeps chucking then we could be in big trouble.

Regarding Austin's threes, I like it when he is taking them. However, sometimes, as you say, he can get trigger happy. If he is going to be dominating the ball in this game, which I would be comfortable with if that were K's plan, I would hope that he will focus on taking the ball to the rim, with a little three-point shooting lightly sprinkled in. For the most part, I'd say he is best used to open up the 3-point line for our other shooters. After all, we've got a lot of them.

[mgtr]

With regard to Barnes, I am always reminded of the WC Fields movie "The Old-Fashioned Way." During the last third of the movie, the running joke line is "Here comes the Prince!"

[Chris Randolph]

Assuming UNC stays healthy tonight, the key to the game Saturday will be scoring more points than the heels...

But seriously, it comes down to two things: 3 point shooting and big man play. We have to shoot the 3 ball well and hope they don't, and the Plumlees/Kelly have to stay close to Zeller/Henson. I don't expect our bigs to outplay them but they must compete close to their numbers/production. I expect UNC to play their best game of the year (similar to last year's season finale). I hope Duke can do the same and ride the Crazies to the win!

[Wheat/"/"/"]

The big question/key...Will Kendall Marshall finish at the rim?

I expect him to attack off the dribble, not kick it out, he must finish. And he needs to stay rested. White needs to have quality minutes, or KM can pace himself first half if post offense from Zeller/Henson is working.

Rebounding? Who wants it more...

Fouls? Can Duke guard the post without getting in foul trouble?

Can UNC shoot straight? Their outside shooting is as bad as Duke's post offense.

Will Duke shoot lights out and steal another one?

My questions for this one...

[wilko]

Will Duke shoot lights out and steal another one?

Not steal WIN

[duke4ever19]

Will Duke shoot lights out and steal another one?

If we stole the last game, doesn't that make Mr. Zeller an accomplice? After all, he had a small, but significant contribution to Duke's theft...

[wilko]

I think payback, revenge and atonement for their earlier loss to us will be firmly entrenched in their collective psyche as they enter CIS, whether they admit it openly or not. If UMd can manage to snakebite them. I think UNC will come in a tad deflated. I hope that game goes to 35 overtimes.

I hope those thoughts make them tight, stiff, and they try to do too much individually and force themselves into bad plays and turnovers. I don't expect it, but one can hope. I also hope that they don't come out as they did in the previous meeting. It pains me to say it, but I cant imagine UNC looking/playing any better than that. They got the ball where they wanted it and did what they wanted... mostly.

We cant let them do that again.

My thought would be that it starts with perimeter pressure. Deny, deny, deny and mix in some well timed pressing (or press seems to be an effective weapon) to make them work and run them into the ground so they are tripping over their tongues.
I say well timed, because with UNC this can be a double edged sword. You don't want to accidentally create transition opportunities for them, but rather keep them off pace and disrupt their continuity. We have more guards to rotate thru and can have fresher guys at the end.

Also we need the Ryan that showed up last night vs:WF.
Kelly is a player that's hard for me to watch and truly appreciate his game. When I think he has a good shot, he misses... When I think hes taking a bad shot he makes it... I like when he tries to go the basket off the dribble. He needs space to do that... Hopefully our shooters will draw attention and give him some space to create opportunities for Miles/Mason or draw a foul on Henson/Zeller/McAdoo taking it himself. RK needs to be effective.

Speaking of MP1 and MP2. They need to show up and play solid. Not spectacular. Just solid. Over the previous game, I'd like to see more rebounds and better interior D. If the guards can apply successful pressure and make UNC initiate its O a few feet further out from their normal comfort zone, it will help these guys a lot position-wise so they are in the right spots for rebounds and help recovery. And of course it would be a fantastic time for Mason to rediscover his touch and footwork.

I hope Josh can go. I'm not sure RK is the guy I want covering Barnes. Maybe in spots... he'll be hard to shoot over but easy to get around so the D needs to be alert to that.

I'm not sure we've seen the best out of Quinn yet this yr. There are times where he "looks" a shade tentative (thinking about his injury) and not reaction 100% to the game in the moment. Could be me hallucinating as well. Something in his movements strikes me that way. I cant exactly put my finger on it. Hope he picks THIS game to make me a believer.

For good or for Ill Austin is THE guy. Moments like this are why he came here. I'm OK with him being the guy. I love the way he throws his body around with reckless abandon when he goes to the hoop. He is fearless! While he used to get A LOT of charging calls (and rightly so) he has learned to not force the issue(as much) and take better advantage of the available spacing. I think his earlier proclivity to charge, hinders him in getting the benefit on a lot of "and one" opportunities. I think when he drives he is fouled more often than it is called. So he just needs to play his game and be smart. Not hide from the moment.

Seth has been on a tear as of late. We' need him to keep driving and relocate and leverage a mid-range game. He needs to play his game much like Austin.

TT - His role is a key. He needs to bother Marshall and make him really uncomfortable. Uncomfortable in a way he hasn't been all year. Needs to bother him on the shot and the drive, keep him from getting the ball back when he gives it up, take away passing angles. Between Quinn and TT we need to do work on Marshall and harass him.

Any O from Dre is gravy. When he is hot he is lava, when he is cold he is ice. I just hope for a consistent hard Defensive effort from him.

I hope CIS puts on a show and brings the energy for the players to feed on and for the recruits that will be in the house.
Hopefully all that will produce a W for the good guys.

Of course now that I have laid it bare something different and unexpected will happen.