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  1. #41
    Under Cut, we're 0-8 against ranked teams.

    The margins: -4, -8, -18, -28, -30, -37, -39, -49

    The two close ones were home games against VT.

  2. #42

    Very difficult schedule

    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    2012 Duke Football Schedule (2011 Record; Bowl game)

    SEPTEMBER


    1 – FIU (8-5; Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl)
    8 – at Stanford (11-2; Tostitos Fiesta Bowl)
    15 – N.C. CENTRAL (2-9)
    22 – MEMPHIS (2-10)
    29 – at Wake Forest (6-7; Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl)

    OCTOBER

    6 – VIRGINIA (8-5; Chick-fil-A Bow)
    13 – at Virginia Tech (11-3; Allstate Sugar Bowl)
    20 – NORTH CAROLINA (7-6; AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl)
    27 – at Florida State (9-4; Champs Sports Bowl)

    NOVEMBER

    3 – CLEMSON (10-4; Discover Orange Bowl)
    10 – Open
    17 – at Georgia Tech (8-5; Hyundai Sun Bowl)
    24 – MIAMI (6-6)

    Note that unc is happily in October, not during the Thanksgiving day weekend. In fact, I think that date may be Duke's homecoming weekend.
    http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.db...DB_OEM_ID=4200

    First of all....what is "Beef O'Brady's"? What is "AdvoCare V100"?

    Aside from ridiculous bowl game sponsors....this schedule, particularly the way it ends, is really, really hard for Duke.

    Winning at Stanford, even without Andrew Luck and other high NFL picks who have all left, will be extremely tough, not to mention the home opener. I think W's against NCCU and Memphis are likely. Then, will we finally beat Wake? And it certainly doesn't help that it's a road game. Let's be optimistic and say 3-2 in September, with a win against either FIU or Wake -- after that, the October schedule is brutal. UVA will be tough, and UNC (regardless of whether home or away, how many times have we beaten the Heels since Spurrier?), sandwiched with road games at VT and FSU -- yikes. And the November schedule -- yikes again. A 5-7 finish is probably the most optimistic scenario I can see.

    Having said all this, I completely support the team in turning the corner and finishing with a winning record - but this schedule is just really tough.

  3. #43

    Duke's chances in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueandWhite View Post
    A 5-7 finish is probably the most optimistic scenario I can see.
    Well, that's just one win away from being bowl eligible, so it wouldn't take much to get over the hump.

    That said, I think I can somewhat disagree with two points -- while FIU is no pushover, it is a team we beat on the road a year ago. While I don't discout their abilities, they do have to replace QB Wesley Carroll and especially WR T.Y. Hilton, who gave us fits last fall. I could be wrong, but as I remember it, the complexion of the game changed when Hilton went out with a slightly injured ankle.

    I'm just saying that it's a game Duke SHOULD win and to go with the Memphis and NCCU games that Duke should win, we should be 3-1 heading for Wake Forest. Obviously, Duke hadn't been able to get over the hump against the Deacs, although we have been frustratingly close. If anything, the last three games in Winston have been closer (and more frustrating) than the last three in Durham. Twice we've lost there when our FG kicker missed a chip-shot field goal. Two years ago, the game turned when our punter dropped a perfect snap from center.

    NOTHING is guaranteed in football, but at least we'll know by the Wake game whether there is any hope for not. I believe there is a reasonable change that this team gets to 4-1 with Virginia coming here. Imagine what a big weekend that would be! Virginia is not a juggernaut -- we've beaten them three of the last four years and held our own against them last year in C'ville with a badly crippled team. If we get to that point, I think 6 or 7 wins is a real possibility.

    I don't blame anybody for being pessimistic about Duke football. There haven't been a lot of positives in recent years ... in recent decades even. But this is the deepest and most talented team Cutcliffe -- and Duke has had since the 1994 team. I know there are still question marks and it sucks that Duke doesn't get to play Maryland and BC, the ACC's other two weakest teams.

    Still, I know it's going to turn one of these days. Maybe this year -- if it's going to happen, we'll know by the first week in October. If we get to that point and it's looking bleak, then basketball practice will be starting the next week and we can all move on to that. But until we get to that point, I beg you to give Cut and this football team a chance.

  4. #44
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Under Cut, we're 0-8 against ranked teams.
    Under Cut, under Roof, under Franks, and for the most part under Goldsmith. Fred had that one solid year when he started. I hope we (and I expect we will) beat someone before 2014, that's a 20 year record I don't want to celebrate.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Well, that's just one win away from being bowl eligible, so it wouldn't take much to get over the hump......But this is the deepest and most talented team Cutcliffe -- and Duke has had since the 1994 team. I know there are still question marks and it sucks that Duke doesn't get to play Maryland and BC, the ACC's other two weakest teams...I beg you to give Cut and this football team a chance.
    I can see six wins on the schedule, but it means we have to beat everyone we are suppose to beat (FIU, NCCU, Memphis) plus win the toss-up games (Wake Forest, Virginia) and knock off a heavy favorite somewhere along the way. Coach Cutcliffe and the team deserve our support and our optimism.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  6. #46
    Join Date
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I believe Beef O'Brady's is a typically awful chain restaurant. I get it confused with O'Charley's and possibly Bennigan's.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    near the Thrillerdome in ATL

    Football

    Lots of wailing and teeth gnashing about the schedule here so far. This is the ACC not the SEC west. I watched half of the Orange Bowl this year. If that's the best the ACC can offer then we're in good shape if we have any players. Time to beat Wake and Carolina and GA Tech for a change. Go Devils. And what happened to Richmond? Time to kick their butt too.

    And while I'm thinking about it, perhaps we can suit up a few backcourt players from the hoops team for some nutcracker drills. Teach them a little defensive intensity after that last game performance.

  8. #48
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    If we want to be big boys, we need to play and beat big boys.

    I see this more as a challenge and opportunity than a detriment.

    Get 'er done.
    Twerp-free since July 1, 2014.

  9. #49

    Pulling for Cut & the team...

    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Well, that's just one win away from being bowl eligible, so it wouldn't take much to get over the hump.

    That said, I think I can somewhat disagree with two points -- while FIU is no pushover, it is a team we beat on the road a year ago. While I don't discout their abilities, they do have to replace QB Wesley Carroll and especially WR T.Y. Hilton, who gave us fits last fall. I could be wrong, but as I remember it, the complexion of the game changed when Hilton went out with a slightly injured ankle.

    I'm just saying that it's a game Duke SHOULD win and to go with the Memphis and NCCU games that Duke should win, we should be 3-1 heading for Wake Forest. Obviously, Duke hadn't been able to get over the hump against the Deacs, although we have been frustratingly close. If anything, the last three games in Winston have been closer (and more frustrating) than the last three in Durham. Twice we've lost there when our FG kicker missed a chip-shot field goal. Two years ago, the game turned when our punter dropped a perfect snap from center.

    NOTHING is guaranteed in football, but at least we'll know by the Wake game whether there is any hope for not. I believe there is a reasonable change that this team gets to 4-1 with Virginia coming here. Imagine what a big weekend that would be! Virginia is not a juggernaut -- we've beaten them three of the last four years and held our own against them last year in C'ville with a badly crippled team. If we get to that point, I think 6 or 7 wins is a real possibility.

    I don't blame anybody for being pessimistic about Duke football. There haven't been a lot of positives in recent years ... in recent decades even. But this is the deepest and most talented team Cutcliffe -- and Duke has had since the 1994 team. I know there are still question marks and it sucks that Duke doesn't get to play Maryland and BC, the ACC's other two weakest teams.

    Still, I know it's going to turn one of these days. Maybe this year -- if it's going to happen, we'll know by the first week in October. If we get to that point and it's looking bleak, then basketball practice will be starting the next week and we can all move on to that. But until we get to that point, I beg you to give Cut and this football team a chance.

    I'm on board with you and want to see this year's team succeed...and I'll give them a chance.

    Back to the previous post from Cameron Born and Bred, which I am copying below: I think this poster's scenario could very well happen (although maybe 6-6 is more likely). I would love, absolutely love, to see us beat both Wake and UNC, as any Duke fan does. We are overdue to beat both as both you and this poster point out...it's amazing (and probably doesn't need to be repeated) how many times Duke has lost to these two programs over the past two decades, and particularly the ways Duke has lost to Wake recently. If we do, I agree that we could easily be looking at a winning record going into November. The Wake and UNC games, in my mind, are the keys to how the season plays out. Even if Duke can win one of two against Wake/UNC, that would still likely build a lot of confidence moving into the really tough part of the schedule.

    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    FIU -- we beat them in Miami last year, I think we will do it again at home this year. (win)
    Stanford -- We'll need luck even though they don't have Luck. (loss)
    NCCU -- Just hope we don't overlook them and get sloppy. We should beat them soundly. (win)
    Memphis -- I don't know much about them other than according to their record they sucked last year. (win)
    Wake -- Lord it's about time we beat them. We do it this year, and carry a 3 game win streak into October. (win)

    UVA -- They are a tough team, well coached, and getting better with more talent from solid recruiting. (toss-up leaning to win)
    VT -- The last time we played them in Blacksburg we got shellacked. But we've played them well before. (loss)
    unc -- Depending on how we did against UVA, this game could be for our 6th win. And like Wake, it's time. (win)
    FSU -- In Tallahassee? Eeek. (loss)

    Clemson -- Hopefully we get exciting with our offense because they are going to put points up. (loss)
    GT -- In Bobby Dodd stadium, eek. (loss)
    Miami -- at home, last game of season, we finally pick up our first win in November in a long, long time. (win)

    Final record -- 7-5 (well 8-5 because we are going to win our bowl game)
    Last edited by Bob Green; 05-07-2012 at 06:12 PM. Reason: Add quote tag

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA
    I like to think of schedules and predictions in terms of my old stats classes. I would put the "mean" expectation - call it the "over/under" - at about FOUR wins (maybe slightly less, around 3.75) - with a standard deviation of about two wins. IOW, I'm expecting about four, but think it would be a "reasonable" outcome to have 2 less or two more than that. That said, the MEAN expectation hasn't always been as high as four in recent decades, but given a sufficient sample size, you'd think that at least a couple times over the last twenty years we could have gotten up to the bowl-eligibility level of six, no?!? Even just by sheer lucky bounces... This year is a tough slate, but some day, in the not too distant future, Cut will be leading us to a Bowl Game.

    I see NCCU and Memphis as games we'll be favored in. I see FIU and Wake as "'push" games (could go either way). UVA and UNC are close, winable expectded games. Any of the others would be considered clear upsets if we won - while anything is always possible, especially at home. My order of most-likely to least-likely upsets wins: MIA (home), GT, CLEM (home), FSU, VT, Stanford.

    Given the degree of difficulty in this schedule, does that mean that we will likely get a scheduling break next year?? We need more MD and BC and maybe NCSU opportunities!

    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    My predictions.

    Stanford would be a long shot, but looking at the schedule I could see us with 4 wins going into October, which would be a pretty nice number.

    FIU -- we beat them in Miami last year, I think we will do it again at home this year. (win)
    Stanford -- We'll need luck even though they don't have Luck. (loss)
    NCCU -- Just hope we don't overlook them and get sloppy. We should beat them soundly. (win)
    Memphis -- I don't know much about them other than according to their record they sucked last year. (win)
    Wake -- Lord it's about time we beat them. We do it this year, and carry a 3 game win streak into October. (win)

    UVA -- They are a tough team, well coached, and getting better with more talent from solid recruiting. (toss-up leaning to win)
    VT -- The last time we played them in Blacksburg we got shellacked. But we've played them well before. (loss)
    unc -- Depending on how we did against UVA, this game could be for our 6th win. And like Wake, it's time. (win)
    FSU -- In Tallahassee? Eeek. (loss)

    Clemson -- Hopefully we get exciting with our offense because they are going to put points up. (loss)
    GT -- In Bobby Dodd stadium, eek. (loss)
    Miami -- at home, last game of season, we finally pick up our first win in November in a long, long time. (win)

    Final record -- 7-5 (well 8-5 because we are going to win our bowl game)
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    SI released a "post-spring" top 25, and the number of teams that we are playing on their list is scary.
    Here's the teams that are on that pre-season top 25.
    Stanford (14)
    Clemson (16)
    FSU (17)
    Virginia Tech (19)
    Georgia Tech (25)
    Eek. That's crazy.
    Sport's Illustrated post-spring top 25 http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...tml?xid=cnnbin
    -BDBD

  11. #51
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    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    Given the degree of difficulty in this schedule, does that mean that we will likely get a scheduling break next year?? We need more MD and BC and maybe NCSU opportunities!
    I think the ACC, even though it blows it on the national stage with regularity, is a very strong conference and that we are in the stronger (coastal) division. So nope, we get no break unless we schedule wimpy teams, and I don't think we should. Even though I noted our tough opponents this year, and their rankings, I still am happy with my predictions. And as others have said, to be one of the big boys you have to play with them.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  12. #52
    Join Date
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    Norfolk, VA
    Featherston article linked on the front page:

    http://www.accsports.com/articles/20...ll-preview.php

    “The biggest difference in this team, as I see it, is that we have more playmakers than we’ve had since we’ve been here on both sides of the ball,” Cutcliffe said. “You see guys flashing … everywhere.”
    Is this the year Duke breaks the long drought and qualifies for a bowl game?
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  13. #53
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    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Featherston article linked on the front page:

    http://www.accsports.com/articles/20...ll-preview.php



    Is this the year Duke breaks the long drought and qualifies for a bowl game?
    I do not think it will be this year with a pretty tough schedule home and away. But, as the saying goes, time to put on our big boy pants and win a couple of those games we shoulda/coulda/woulda won the last few years if we had less TO, more red zone TDs, made the short FGs, made that crucial 3rd and long "stop," etc. I'd be a bit more optimistic if we had any/all MD/NCSU/BC on the schedule instead of Clemson/f$u/Stanford. And I do realize Stanford is not an ACC game but the point being that games vs the ACC squads mentioned first are higher probability wins than the last 3 foes mentioned. I'm thinking 2013 is more likely a "bowling" year for us but I'd have to examine that schedule first and see how 2012 ended. Continue to love Cut's optimism though.
    Not leaving until the game is over.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    I'm thinking 2013 is more likely a "bowling" year for us but I'd have to examine that schedule first and see how 2012 ended. Continue to love Cut's optimism though.
    I believe the fan base needs to take a "the time is now" approach. Looking ahead to 2013 is dangerous because we will be losing a lot of talent such as starters Conner Vernon, Sean Renfree, Desmond Scott, Brian Moore, Lee Butler, Walt Canty and Jordon Byas. The seniors need to lead this team to victory in 2012.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  15. #55
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I believe the fan base needs to take a "the time is now" approach. Looking ahead to 2013 is dangerous because we will be losing a lot of talent such as starters Conner Vernon, Sean Renfree, Desmond Scott, Brian Moore, Lee Butler, Walt Canty and Jordon Byas. The seniors need to lead this team to victory in 2012.


    I agree with you, Bob. Last year was supposed to be our year, when I thought we had the best kicker in the country and the best QB in the ACC. I think Cut thought so too. That wasn't the case, and our year didn't happen.

    This year we need some quality wins (and the absence of bad losses) to keep our football program on an upward path. Let's go, Duke!

    sagegrouse

  16. #56
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    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I believe the fan base needs to take a "the time is now" approach. Looking ahead to 2013 is dangerous because we will be losing a lot of talent such as starters Conner Vernon, Sean Renfree, Desmond Scott, Brian Moore, Lee Butler, Walt Canty and Jordon Byas. The seniors need to lead this team to victory in 2012.
    I really like all those guys you listed, Bob and agree those seniors should be among the leaders this year but this schedule is really a tough one. I am not looking ahead to 2013 but I'll call your leaders above and raise you with WR Crowder and Holliday (and I really, really like Vernon), QB Boone/Connette and Sirk, RB Snead/Thompson/Carter and Powell (?), a deeper, talented and more experienced OL with Simmons/Cofield/Harding(?)/Tomlinson, DB Campbell and Cockrell, the Brown twins (jk) at LB, DL Sarmiento/Foxx and Dewalt-Ondijo and TE Blakeney/Reeves and Deaver. (I think I named all non-seniors in my list.) I'll bet I overlooked a few guys that Cut is really expecting to stand out this year and next, too. Add a couple highly rating kicking specialists (and I really liked King) and I think 2013 may be a more reasonable expectation. Agree that every team should think that they are going bowling for their current year. I'll have a fine ale waiting for you at the end of the last game if we play in a post season bowl game this particular campaign ;>)) .
    Not leaving until the game is over.

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    I'll have a fine ale waiting for you at the end of the last game if we play in a post season bowl game this particular campaign ;>)) .
    Only one? Remember, you're dealing with a Sailor here so I'm going to need four or five. Refresh my memory, you're not my doctor, right?
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  18. #58

    Bowl Bound!

    [QUOTE=CameronBornAndBred;555010]2012 Duke Football Schedule (2011 Record; Bowl game)

    SEPTEMBER


    1 – FIU (8-5; Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl)
    8 – at Stanford (11-2; Tostitos Fiesta Bowl)
    15 – N.C. CENTRAL (2-9)
    22 – MEMPHIS (2-10)
    29 – at Wake Forest (6-7; Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl)

    OCTOBER

    6 – VIRGINIA (8-5; Chick-fil-A Bow)
    13 – at Virginia Tech (11-3; Allstate Sugar Bowl)
    20 – NORTH CAROLINA (7-6; AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl)
    27 – at Florida State (9-4; Champs Sports Bowl)

    NOVEMBER

    3 – CLEMSON (10-4; Discover Orange Bowl)
    10 – Open
    17 – at Georgia Tech (8-5; Hyundai Sun Bowl)
    24 – MIAMI (6-6)


    I see six wins here. But the margin of error is almost zero. We will have to have a high quality win from the ACC (something we have not had in oh, so long)

    If we loose to any of these teams, our chances at a bowl are almost zero:

    We have to go 3-0 against these teams.

    FIU
    NC Central
    Memphis

    We are due against these teams:

    And could have beat them last year. 2-0 would be huge for a potential bowl bid.

    Wake Forest
    Virginia

    Long Shot Wins:

    We will need one. Should have beaten VTech last year.

    Georgia Tech
    VTech
    Carolina
    Miami
    Stanford

    Yeah, we are not going to beat these teams:

    Clemson
    Florida State

  19. #59
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    Denver, CO
    Last year FSU lost to Wake and UVA. Clemson got absolutely smoked by NC State.

    I'm not about to put them on the should-win list, but writing those games off completely is a mistake.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Only one? Remember, you're dealing with a Sailor here so I'm going to need four or five. Refresh my memory, you're not my doctor, right?
    "Never ask a Navy man if he'll have another drink."
    Twerp-free since July 1, 2014.

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