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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    The Art of Accepting a Homecourt Advantage

    Here's a measure of how much Duke has struggled at Cameron as opposed to road games in the ACC. All stats are based on seven games at home and seven away.

    Code:
    Duke stats
    
    Stat	Home	Away	Diff.
     PPG 	 74.3 	 76.7 	 (2.4)
    FG Pct.	41.9%	45.9%	-3.9%
    2P Pct.	48.0%	52.0%	-4.0%
    3P Pct.	33.3%	37.4%	-4.1%
    FT Pct.	64.3%	71.3%	-7.0%
    RB/G 	 39.6 	 36.3 	 3.3 
    TO/G 	 10.1 	 11.9 	 (1.7)
    Please note that Duke is better on the road than at home in almost every statistic. I mean, can't we do as well at home in shooting FTs as on the road? We practice those in Cameron every day.

    And looking at stats vs. opponents is no better. Our comparative stats except in RBs are better on the road than at home.

    Code:
    
    Home Games			
    Stat	Duke	Opp.	Diff.
    PPG	 74.3 	 68.3 	 6.0 
    FG Pct.	41.9%	42.8%	-0.8%
    2P Pct.	48.0%	48.0%	0.0%
    3P Pct.	33.3%	28.0%	5.3%
    FT Pct.	64.3%	66.2%	-1.9%
     RB/G 	 39.6 	 36.9 	 2.7 
     TO/G 	 10.1 	 12.4 	 (2.3)
    			
    Away Games			
    Stat	Duke	Opp.	Diff.
    PPG	76.7	65.9	10.9
    FG Pct.	45.9%	41.1%	4.7%
    2P Pct.	52.0%	46.0%	6.1%
    3P Pct.	37.4%	25.8%	11.7%
    FT Pct.	71.3%	62.8%	8.6%
     RB/G 	 36.3 	 34.1 	 2.1 
     TO/G 	 11.9 	 10.4 	 1.4
    This is very odd but very consistent, both in watching the games and in examining the numbers.

    Isn't there a graceful way of accepting home court advantage?

    sagegrouse
    'One more game at home -- go get 'em!!!'

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    little river sc

    trying too hard??

    great job with the numbers! could it be the team is plain and simply trying too hard? seems to me in road games they just band together with a us against the world mentality, but at home, the effort is usually there.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Maybe our opponents don't like playing at home either and would rather play at CIS instead. Perhaps the Crazies and the Crusties should have cheered for VPI on Saturday instead of Duke to make our guys think they were playing in a hostile environment. Wonder if on Saturday we should wear, never mind, I'll stop posting on that horrid thought.

    (Posting from work from my tablet and my smilies look like they have been run over by a roy williams charter bus and I can't insert any in my [mostly] tongue-in-cheek entry above.)
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Is the difference significant? Is it a sign of the coming end of the world?

    I haven't had my caffeine yet so I'm not ready to speculate.

  5. #5

    I've seen similar results with Virginia Tech's homefield "advantage" in football

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    This is very odd but very consistent, both in watching the games and in examining the numbers.

    Isn't there a graceful way of accepting home court advantage?
    My guess has been that coaches have found ways to reverse the psychology and play to the "us against the world" mentality. Or maybe it's that the visiting players normally don't get such an electric atmosphere?

    In the end, I just wish that our fans and the media would stop playing it up so that we can go back to having an advantage at home.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by camion View Post
    Is the difference significant? Is it a sign of the coming end of the world?

    I haven't had my caffeine yet so I'm not ready to speculate.
    Good question. First things first: It is not a sign of the coming end of the world. Second: Here are the numbers and you can judge whether the differences are significant:

    Code:
    Type	Att	Diff	Pts
    2P Att	35	0.04	 2.8 
    3P Att	25	0.041	 3.1 
    FT Att	24	0.07	 1.7 
    Total			 7.6
    Nearly 8 points a game if you apply the Away shooting percentage differentials to the shot attempts at Home. That seems "huge" to me.

    sagegrouse

  7. #7

    Just my thoughts

    I think it has more to do with teams wanting to win in Cameron so bad they play their best game of the year. I know if I were an opposing player I would have the game against Duke circled at the beginning of the season. Winning in Cameron against a Coack K coached team would be up there with a final four appearance in my book.

    From what Ive seen the losses and near losses at home look more like there is a lid on the basket than just Duke playing poorly. When shots fall everything else on the court looks better. When they dont fall, intensity and poor defense get brought up!

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Durham, NC
    This may be a form of heresy, but in light of our home struggles, perhaps the Crazies should simulate a road game experience for our guys by doing some of the other team's home chants? It'd be kinda funny, and maybe it would help lighten things up and keep our boys loose. They could follow it up with: "It's a road game" clap-clap clap-clap-clap.

    Edit: I'm just throwing this out there. I'm not even sure if I agree with myself. Actually, the idea of the Cameron Crazies chanting "Tar..." "Heel..." from side to side in Cameron, now that I think about it, is a bit sickening. Abandon ship.

  9. #9
    I hate to be "that guy", but... small sample size. Too small for the relatively small differences in home and away stats to be meaningful.

    A - we've had a tougher schedule at home than on the road. UVa, Miami, and NCState - home only. Clemson, GT, BC - road only.

    B - if Snaer's 3 rims out, and Austin's 3 rims out, we're likely 6-1 at home, 6-1 on the road, and not having this discussion at all.

    If we were 6-0 at home, 1-5 on the road and there was a *huge* difference in stats then sure, start looking for reasons. But the differences here just aren't significant enough to fall outside of expected random variance.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    I hate to be "that guy", but... small sample size. Too small for the relatively small differences in home and away stats to be meaningful.

    A - we've had a tougher schedule at home than on the road. UVa, Miami, and NCState - home only. Clemson, GT, BC - road only.

    B - if Snaer's 3 rims out, and Austin's 3 rims out, we're likely 6-1 at home, 6-1 on the road, and not having this discussion at all.
    I was about to post this -- part drawing better teams at home, part dumb luck. With our two remaining games @Wake and home against unc, point A will in fact become more extreme by season's end.

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