Mason and the NBA

[UrinalCake]

Sounds like you are describing Tyler Zeller.

Kinda goes along with Wheat's theory that all of Duke's big men should try to do exactly what UNC's big men currently do 8-)

[Kedsy]

Hate to call you out in any way, Kedsy, as I enjoyed the majority of this post (and your posts in general), but I do think that you're a bit off here. There a lot of posts in this thread that make a strong case in both directions; and projecting an implicit, subconsious, or psychological motive is, in my opinion, unfair to posts which are actually very thoughtful and well-reasoned.

I think you're misinterpreting what I said. I wasn't commenting on all the posts (or even the majority). I simply said the posters who say Mason and/or Austin "need" to come back are engaging in wishful thinking.

[Kedsy]

The similarities are high energy...

I don't know. I wouldn't necessarily describe Mason as "high energy." Miles, probably. Josh, certainly. But Mason seems more low key, to me.

[superdave]

I don't know. I wouldn't necessarily describe Mason as "high energy." Miles, probably. Josh, certainly. But Mason seems more low key, to me.

A "good motor" or "live body" were the other cliches that came to mind. Compared to Andrew Bynum or Marc Gasol, Mason has a good motor. Maybe that's just a nice way of say "not lumbering".

[UrinalCake]

He also has good length, tremendous upside, and great second-jumpability to go along with his good motor.

[superdave]

He also has good length, tremendous upside, and great second-jumpability to go along with his good motor.

Thanks for leaving "high basketball IQ" for me to mention. Appreciate that.

The NBA draft never ceases to entertain.

[OldSchool]

I think scouts will probably compare Mason's game to Joakim Noah. He's more athletic than Noah but has lesser defensive instincts. The similarities are high energy, willingness to hit the boards and set picks, limited offensive moves, and good use of body and athleticism to rebound and block shots.

Noah is 6'11' and 235 while Mason is 6'10'' and 235. Noah probably has a wider frame and Mason probably has stronger legs.

Noah had a similar freshman year to Mason - played every game but in limited minutes. The difference is Noah jumped his sophomore year to 14 and 7 then averaged 12 and 8 his junior year. Mason has instead gone from 7 and 8 last year to 10 and 10 this year roughly.

In my opinion (which wont get you a cup of coffee) Mason would be a backup center in the league as opposed to a 4. He's strong enough, tall enough and jumps well enough to play center, but he'd need a consistent jumper to play the 4 and that's not in his game right now.

My assumption about his draft status is scouts know what he brings to the table but they doubt there's much upside to him than a good run-jump athlete who hits the boards really hard but has limited offensive potential. He would not be as good as Noah, but he would be a solid backup playing 15-20 minutes per game.

In comparison McRoberts is averaging 2 and 3 in 13 minutes a game, but has not played every game for the Lakers this season. He is more skilled than Mason and more instinctive but not as hard a worker.

Good comparison SuperDave with Noah. For a big guy Mason is relatively quick, has excellent run and jump ability and is pretty good in terms of hand-eye and hand-foot coordination. I think he will be better at run-outs and transition plays in the NBA than Noah is. I think he will be better at the pick-and-roll than Noah is. I don't see him as a better defensive player than Noah. I do see him as a 4 and not a 5 notwithstanding that we don't see him shoot a lot of jump shots. I wouldn't assume he will not be able to hit the open 10-to-15-footer in the NBA as a 4 needs to be able to do at times. That is something Duke does not need him to do in our offensive scheme.

As I have argued before, we don't make the full use of Mason because of the limitations of our guards. Mason could be a much more effective weapon in the pick-and-roll if our guards developed better vision and passing ability. For goodness sakes, the moment you see Mason's big defender hedge, just throw it over the top. Just get it over the big defender and only Mason will be able to get it and he either has an open path to the rim or the defensive rotation will leave someone open under the basket or at the three-point line. Mason is a good enough passer and decision-maker to make the right play. This is primarily on Austin. If Austin and Mason both stay next year, I expect to see Mason as a much more effectively-used pick-and-roll weapon as Austin continues to get better with his court vision and passing. Right now our guards use Mason primarily as just a high dribble screen.

I think Mason is capable of being a better FT shooter. We see that in stretches where he looks good, and then he reverts to his line-drive technique and starts bricking. I think some big guys with their height and long arms stand at the line and the rim seems so close that they feel they can just flick it in, and the shot looks practically like a line drive. Even big guys need to put some air under the ball every time and develop a consistent motion.

Mason is a better athlete than Josh McRoberts. Remember Josh had issues with his back. Josh's advantage was he had a relatively high basketball IQ as a young college player and had good court vision and passing skills, as well as a decent dribble for a big guy.

Even though I am bullish on Mason's NBA prospects and I expect the NBA scouts to be too, I don't think that means he will necessarily go this year. He may want to finish out his college career and get his degree[s] graduating with his class and enjoy his senior year. Even if you come back to school later to finish out your degree, you never get to have that senior year experience like Kyle and Nolan had. You can bounce around from NBA team to NBA team but that connection with your college, your coaches and your college friends remains.

[greybeard]

Mason is a terrific student with a double major, the second of which I believe he began pursuing at the beginning of this year. In an interview, he sounded very excited about both.

[tommy]

I think scouts will probably compare Mason's game to Joakim Noah. He's more athletic than Noah but has lesser defensive instincts. The similarities are high energy, willingness to hit the boards and set picks, limited offensive moves, and good use of body and athleticism to rebound and block shots.

Noah is 6'11' and 235 while Mason is 6'10'' and 235. Noah probably has a wider frame and Mason probably has stronger legs.

Noah had a similar freshman year to Mason - played every game but in limited minutes. The difference is Noah jumped his sophomore year to 14 and 7 then averaged 12 and 8 his junior year. Mason has instead gone from 7 and 8 last year to 10 and 10 this year roughly.

In my opinion (which wont get you a cup of coffee) Mason would be a backup center in the league as opposed to a 4. He's strong enough, tall enough and jumps well enough to play center, but he'd need a consistent jumper to play the 4 and that's not in his game right now.

My assumption about his draft status is scouts know what he brings to the table but they doubt there's much upside to him than a good run-jump athlete who hits the boards really hard but has limited offensive potential. He would not be as good as Noah, but he would be a solid backup playing 15-20 minutes per game.

In comparison McRoberts is averaging 2 and 3 in 13 minutes a game, but has not played every game for the Lakers this season. He is more skilled than Mason and more instinctive but not as hard a worker.

Superdave - I agree with a lot of what you (and other posters in this thread) have said, but I would quibble with yor statement that McRoberts is more skilled than Mason and more instinctive. McRoberts was/is a better and more instinctive passer, and has/had a much better handle, no question. But Mason has developed both a left and right-handed hook shot that, when he gets his feet underneath him properly, and is in rhythm, is a thing of beauty. He just doesn't do it often enough, that's all. But I consider those to be highly skilled moves. One of the problems with McRoberts is that he never really developed any reliable moves at all. He could hit a 12-15 foot jumper, but he really struggled in the paint.

I also think Mason's defensive skills have developed greatly since he got to Duke. His first year for sure, and even last year, he was constantly in foul trouble, he had a lot of problems with rotating properly, his help defense was erratic. I've seen big improvements in those areas this year. And he's playing much stronger -- his hands are stronger, he's holding onto the ball much more effectively too.

I'm not saying he's going to be a great NBA player, or even a starter, but if I had to take a flyer on him for the next 3-5 years, with his work ethic and his smarts vs. having what we know McRoberts to be at this point, I'd take my chances on Mason.

[hq2]

Not quite sure what's happened to McBobs. He was actually playing O.K. in Indiana. Not sure if he's been injured or what, but hasn't done much lately in L.A. Maybe he just doesn't fit the way they play.

[MartyClark]

I really like the young man. I hope he stays. He's a valuable part of this team. But... he really is ponderous in the low post. He clearly has some athletic ability but he looks slow when he get the ball low and tries to make a move. He's not able to make a quick spin move and often gets stripped.

I don't know how that translates to draft status or NBA success. He's had a good year, notwithstanding the last few games, but I don't think he's all that athletic compared to his draft competition.

[greybeard]

If Mason made a reasonable percentage of his foul shots, how much more per game would he be averaging? Mason' game, especially on the pro level, would be greatly improved if he can show areliable mid-range jump shot. We haven't seen that shot from him. I am not sure that it is because he doesn't have it. K might want him challenging at the rim, period. A jump shot for Mason might well be easier than a foul shot; it does not depend on fluidly of energy up from the ground into an extension of his right arm pushing into the ground. On the other hand, a reliable jump shot does depend upon not holding the ball in one's palm and come easily with a rythm that can vary in speeds (rhythm creats feel, touch, in my view). I think that improving Mason's foul shooting, and probably his mid-range jump shooting, will not be easy. His foul shooting proves that. If you think that holding the ball in one's fingers and having the right tension in them to fit with how you deliver the ball to shooting is easy to acquire for a player who hasn't displayed them, just think of Shaq and the many iterations of style on his foul shot we saw him go through. The last was downright comical--he held the ball at the very tip of rigid fingers and a rigid right arm ; the only part of him that moved was his feet pushing into the ground.)

Mason has not shown a turn around jump shot off the backboard on either side of the lane. The backboard is very forgiving with regard to speed; Mason shoots his foul shots with excellent direction; it is the pace of the shot that is what causes his misses. The backboard shot from either side of the lane should not be hard for Mason to develop. It will also open more up-and-under moves (he has shown that move from in close). So, I think Mason's effectiveness on the offensive end depends to a significant degree on a reliable 10-15 foot jump shot.

As a rebounder and defender Mason is high end, with the possible exception of defending against a power forward who can play at distance from the basket. However, if the later is a problem, that will improve with experience--playing one-on-one with suc players on his own team when he turns pro. As a runner and finisher on the break, Mason is high end.

Finally, Mason is awesome at what sells tickets. I mean the guy can throw it down, with force and variety. That money can buy, and there are not many guys who can deliver like Mason. Soo, whether he stays or goes, I think that the money will be there.

Noah, in my opinion, has an uncanny ability to predict the game as it comes to the basket when he is on defense. That vision, his long arms, and his terrific balance, timing, and footwork make him a superior defender in the league. They also give him the ability to get rebounds that other players of size just won't get to. His vision for the game also helps him to stay out of the way on offense and to pass the ball well. As for his productivity on offense, both in college (Horford) and the pros (Boozer) Noah played beside dominant inside scorers. In short, he has a unique and very effective style; I don't think you can compare how he plays to anyone in the game.

[greybeard]

Mason has The talent that sells tickets. He can really throw it down, with force, in a variety of ways. That talent can be brought, and the NBA buys it for lots of money. I do not think Mason will lose money by coming back. I think that he has a lot to gain by coming back that has nothing to do with basketball. Therefore, I think Mason will be back.

If Mason wants to learn how to use use himself to shoot effectively, he should consult an expert in how people learn to change their habitual patterns and have the ability to choose something that is better. Tweeking an already effective habitual pattern is a different matter than changing a habitual patterns that go to root habits and misconceptions about self use. Shooting coaches can be quite effective with the latter; very, very few are of help with the former. If it was otherwise, it is safe to assume that Mason would not be shooting no 50 odd percent from the line.

I have suggested a strategy that I am reasonably sure will help Mason acquire tools that will lead him to improve. For all concerned, I wll leave it that.

Man, the kid can throw it down, can't he, and that does seem to be what the pro game is all about. He'll earn.

[superdave]

If Mason made a reasonable percentage of his foul shots, how much more per game would he be averaging? Mason' game, especially on the pro level, would be greatly improved if he can show areliable mid-range jump shot. We haven't seen that shot from him. I am not sure that it is because he doesn't have it. K might want him challenging at the rim, period. A jump shot for Mason might well be easier than a foul shot; it does not depend on fluidly of energy up from the ground into an extension of his right arm pushing into the ground. On the other hand, a reliable jump shot does depend upon not holding the ball in one's palm and come easily with a rythm that can vary in speeds (rhythm creats feel, touch, in my view). I think that improving Mason's foul shooting, and probably his mid-range jump shooting, will not be easy. His foul shooting proves that. If you think that holding the ball in one's fingers and having the right tension in them to fit with how you deliver the ball to shooting is easy to acquire for a player who hasn't displayed them, just think of Shaq and the many iterations of style on his foul shot we saw him go through. The last was downright comical--he held the ball at the very tip of rigid fingers and a rigid right arm ; the only part of him that moved was his feet pushing into the ground.)

Mason is 73 for 150 on the season through 29 games. That is 2.5 for 5.2 per game. If he made one more FT then he'd be 3.5 for 5.2 per game and shoot 68% and average 11.7 points.

But if he shot that he could also stay on the court at the end of close games for offense and the guards would actually feed the post late in the game. It would be a self-reinforcing improvement. He'd spiral upwards!

[UrinalCake]

But if he shot that [68%] he could also stay on the court at the end of close games for offense and the guards would actually feed the post late in the game. It would be a self-reinforcing improvement. He'd spiral upwards!

I don't have the numbers to back it up, but my gut tells me that he's been shooting at a much higher percentage in the last ten or so games. Like maybe around 70% At the same time, his scoring has gone way down. So there appears to be a negative correlation between scoring and free throw shooting (though in reality there's probably no correlation).

Even when he was shooting poorly he still played aggressively and went to the basket. I will grant you that in the last five minutes he's less useful, but I don't think that accounts for much scoring overall.

[Kedsy]

I don't have the numbers to back it up, but my gut tells me that he's been shooting at a much higher percentage in the last ten or so games. Like maybe around 70% At the same time, his scoring has gone way down. So there appears to be a negative correlation between scoring and free throw shooting (though in reality there's probably no correlation).

I had thought so, too, but it's not really the case. In his last 10 games, Mason is shooting 59% from the line. In his last 13 games (the high point, if you're scalping results), he's shooting 63% from the line. In his last 6 games (the recent low point, if you're scalping results), he's shooting 48% from the line. So, better than earlier in the season, but not particularly close to 70%.

[dkball]

Why would the NBA and/or NCAA wish to keep the kids in school? Both organizations are pretty healthy financially, so I guess I don't understand what you think their motivation would be to implement your plan?

My thinking is it would give some type of incentive for some kids to stay in school. True the NCAA and the NBA will make their money either way, but it would be good PR and I guess I like to think both entities would like to encourage kids to stay in school longer.